mac9001

There's a good chance after this Thorpe will spend some additional time in AAA thus pushing his arb clock back a bit as the competition for rotation spots will intensify quite a bit next year. As things stand you have to assume he would need to earn his way back into what's shaping up to be a very crowded and competitive 2026 rotation picture. But all the TJs also illustrate how foolish it would be to trade a cost controlled asset like Davis Martin. Unless you're getting an above average starting position player having depth in the rotation will be more valuable than just getting low A ball high ceiling prospects for the likes of Davis.

For a timing perspective at least it's happening early enough where all these guys should be pitching at some point next year. We're not going to be competitive in '26, so really at least they have time to get back and show they're ready to contribute in the bigs come '27.

At this rate they might need to create a 2nd team in Arizona for all the rehab starts, the Sox Tommy John's.

Shane Smith after this spring training definitely scores a 10/10 on the intrigue scale. You don't generally get high level talent out of a rule 5 pick so it would be so outside of what anyone would have expected when he was drafted if he's routinely hitting 97-99 as a starter.

Meidroth had an average EV of 88.6 last year with a 34% hard hit rate (EV 95+). Colson was at 85.8 and 34.2% respectively. Difference between them is Meideoth hits everything on the ground or a line (thus high BABIP, low HR), while Colon his everything in the air (below avg BABIP, average HR rate). He has no issue making solid hard contact, he's just not putting it on the air and thus won't generate XBH. But with his plate discipline and ability to hit the ball hard on the ground he'll be able to maintain an above average batting avg and likely elite OBP (with minimal ISO). If he plays an avg 2B he'll have plenty of value, the floor is high enough where he'll have a long MLB career.

For those interested, every Tommy John since well...Tommy John: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1gQujXQQGOVNaiuwSN680Hq-FDVsCwvN-3AazykOBON0/htmlview?pli=1

For all the hate that Colas gets his overall offensive number were pretty comparable to Colon's.

There's something unique about Chase. He had an absurd 30% swing rate (lowest in bigs is Soto at 37%) and a microscopic 3.2% swinging strike rate. The dude doesn't swing the bat and when he does he pretty much always makes contact. The only reason he strikes out is because of the absurd amount of pitches he takes. His EV and hard hit rates were pretty comparable to Benintendi's. He'll probably be fine.

Honestly, watching Burke in AAA he started the year off very rusty. There was a very noticeable improvement in his command. He's likely always going to have above average walk rates, but his last 4-5 starts in AAA I don't think he had a single non-competitive AB where he just walked someone on 4/5 pitches. He has the stuff to make mistakes at the big league level, someone like Cannon had zero room for error, but Sean can just let a 98 MPH, 7+ extension, 18+ IVB rip over the plate and he's still going to get swings if its anywhere near the zone. That has some serious staying power when you have the stuff to widen your margin of error.

Davis seems too competent to end up back in Charlotte but I figure the odds of Burke being back in AAA have to be 60%+, Cannon 50%+, Smith back in the bullpen 50%+ and Wilson and Perez getting non-tendered 50%+.

Ironically if I had to pick which starter is the most likely to end up in back in AAA (or non-tendered) Burke would be at the top by a mile. But at the same time I don't see anything wrong with giving him the nod, its not like anyone else has earned it. Personally would have gone with Davis, but I'm more concerned with who's going last and I hope they keep Wilson in the pen and give Shane Smith a chance at starting.

Those sound like quotes from someone who thinks he's going under the knife.

Colon looks magnitudes better at short this year. Sliming down a bit has made a big difference.

If Martin pitches well (AS level well) I really hope they don't just take the best offer on the table for him. He has so much service time remaining you really don't lose any value holding him for a year or even two until someone just caves and blows you away on a offer. To assume our top pitching prospects all stay healthy would be foolish and trading away solid cost controlled pitching depth without significant surplus on a return is not going to age well.

Good chance Mason is shut down for a few months at a minimum even if they don't recommend TJS. Thus the probability of him getting any big league time just dropped to essentially zero.