Frobby

Well, in a recent Orioles Hangout poll, about 2/3 of posters were willing to give up both Cowser and Ortiz in a trade for Cease. So, I don’t know that your premise is correct, depending on what you mean by “so many people.” But among those who are reluctant to part with the prospects, I’d say the big factors are (1) we’ve been very successful with our prospects turning the organization around the last two years, (2) we’ve suffered through some very long losing spells caused by short term thinking, so many O’s fans are more interested in sustainable winning than a “go for it for a season or two” mentality, and (3) we do have some “medium term” needs that some of the prospects could fill. For example, all three of the Orioles’ starting outfielders will be free agents within the next two years, so dealing either Cowser or Kjerstad means we’ll need to find a replacement elsewhere. Ortiz/Norby is a somewhat different story, as we have a lot of infield depth.

My sense of Mike Elias is he's the kind of guy who goes to an auction with a very firm idea of what his top bid will be, and if someone outbids him, he doesn't get caught up in auction fever and change his mind about what his top bid should be. Thus, even if a lot of other teams are in on Cease, I don't think it will affect Elias' bottom line, though it could press him to get there a little easier. And if Elias' mentality (as supposed by me) means that we will sometimes lose out to a higher bidder even when we could "afford" to outbid the other team, I'll live with it. As to whether Cease will be better than Bradish and/or Rodriguez, I think that's dependent mostly on what version of Cease shows up. I am pretty confident that the two O's starters will beat Cease's average ERA+ of 113 pretty handily. But of course, I'm an O's fan, so I'm wired to think that way.

Hi there Sox fans. Long time Oriole fan here, stopping by to give my two cents on a possible Cease trade for O's prospects. While O's fan opinions on Cease vary, I view him as someone who is likely to slot in as the O's no. 3 starter (behind Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez), with the potential to be a TOR starter if he can get his act together fully. I don't see him as the ace he was in 2022, nor as the somewhat mediocre pitcher he was in 2023. I see him more as a guy who has posted an ERA+ of 113 in his career, and who has reached 111 or better 3 times in a 5-year career. I see a lot of White Sox fans really putting a lot of weight on his one great season, but at the end of the day, he's only done that one time in five years, and not in the most recent season. In fact, his most recent season was very disappointing, even if we can ascribe some of that to bad defense and/or bad luck. Saying that, he'd make a good addition for the Orioles, who are a little thin on pitchers, and I do like the upside if he can veer back towards his 2022 form. The O's are a much better defensive team than the White Sox and I think their coaching staff and analytics department have done a good job with our pitchers the last few years and could probably be of help to Cease. So what would I give up? Personally, I think a package of Kjerstad/Cowser plus Ortiz is about right, and I would consider throwing in a lower level prospect if necessary to close the deal. I don't see us giving up either McDermott or Povich as a third piece, because we are thin on pitching prospects in the upper levels of the minors, and dealing either of them would partially undermine the purpose of getting two years of Cease. I realize there are some rumors that the Sox want pitching back in any trade, and if that's true, either (1) there won't be a deal with the O's, (2) the pitcher will be someone further down in our system, or (3) the O's will downgrade the two hitters offered in the trade. Bottom line, I think the O's and Sox are pretty well matched so long as the Sox aren't too set on getting pitching back. Both Getz and Elias strike me as patient guys who won't get to their bottom line until they are forced to. So, if any deal happens between the two clubs, I think it will be in the second half of January or later.