QUOTE (scenario @ Jul 26, 2008 -> 12:03 PM)
A good example of where the averages probably mean squat.
Look at what actually happened:
(1) In 2005, after graduating from Michigan... practically went straight to low A-ball (hit 1 homerun in 214 at-bats)
(2) In 2006, was promoted to AA Birmingham, skipping Winston-Salem (hit 2 homeruns in 508 at-bats)
(3) In 2007, got hurt and missed half the season (hit 3 homeruns in 278 at-bats)
(4) In 2008, has 9 of the 14 homeruns you mentioned in a little over a half season. (9 homeruns in 329 at-bats)
Pushed ahead of schedule 2 years... hurt the next year... healthy this year. So, what is the appropriate basis for projection?
You're once again ignoring his home/away splits. All of his home runs this year have been in Charlotte and he is slugging a pathetic .337 away from the bandbox in Charlotte. Everything about him screams utility player and nothing more.