Chisoxfn

Figured lets make its own thread. I don't like giving Rogers credit - cause there isn't likely any inside info here, but he raises a point. Yes - it is a low point to sell Gio, but at the same time - they only have him for this season, so the question is - is the value you get for him next year worth more than the value of a comp pick? I would probably say I don't know and I am a huge Lucas fan. Given the going rate of FA - Gio still has a good profile and I think analytics and past support are kind to him. Yes, he had a bad year - but excluding last year - he has basically been one of the best pitchers via WAR for a couple years and last year's peripheals are indicative of bad luck. If you can get younger assets and fill other holes - I kind of think Gio is someone you should trade (sure you could wait and see if he outperforms / bounces back and potentially get more at the deadline - but knowing Sox are trying to contend it feels like repositioning now makes more sense because club can do more NOW around overall roster construction).

The question with Salvy and his contract is can there be creativity here. Moncada and his contract is no bargain, Grandal is out there. I don't know what the options are but could there be a move that saves Royals money while Sox feel they ultimately get a better incremental value (I guess worthy of the $ they would spend). I see zero scenario where you'd have Grandal and Salvy's contracts tied up to this team. Makes zero financial sense to have that much annual money committed to catchers that age. But would Grandal for Salvy be something teams would consider. Royals save a lot of LT cash - Sox tie up LT cash but get someone who is probably more likely to be productive than Grandal (his body is just breaking down). Can't say I love it - knowing the Sox payroll committments down the road.

Two good orgs.

On Clevinger's fastball - it is interesting because his '22 velocity was exactly in line with his '18 and '17 seasons; 19 and 20 is where he saw a jump. His '18 velocity was 93.5 (vs. '22 of 93.6) while '17 was 92.5. As you mentioned - a sinker starts show up in his data - was it a new pitch or something else (yet his ground ball ratio didn't change, it decreased slightly if anything - and his line drive rate also went down). The one stat that was way different in '22 vs. any past years from Clevinger was that he gave up quite a bit more flyballs than the past. In '22 his Flyball percentage was 35%. For perspective he never had a season above 25% at any point in his entire career. Edit: Went to dig into his velocity trend for '22 (thought it was interesting how it dipped later in the season).

I don’t know what drove Clevinger to that substantially outperform his peripherals but I do know his era was sub 4 every month of the season but September. Now could it be he just fatigued after the time off - yes. I suppose he could have also fell off a cliff but I have zero clue what projection system gives Boyd so much credit over a very small sample size out of the pen and than extrapolates thay to him starting as much as that when he has been a pure crap starter over a massive sample size (unless he underwent some massive transformation that I am not aware of from a pitch usage velo etc). Clevinger could suck but he was pretty damn solid last year in that first year back. Sure his arm could re explode but he also could just benefit that much more from a normal offseason after getting back on his feet this year. And it isn’t like his advanced peripherals were down in terms of velocity or other things that would be great imdicatioms of smoke and mirrors.

This is a really good point.

$10M for a guy with a 4.90 ERA over 145 starts. Man this is like giving Vince Velasquez 10M per year. I get it - he has 130 innings split over 2 years that have been way better than the rest of his career - but its still just a handful of starts in each of those seasons, so SSS. I never understood Velasquez and this feels that way when you put the $10M on it.

I expect 1-2 moves.

Why shouldn't they find other ways to drive revenue.

How can someone do so little yet at times look ok. Who was it Phil would meow when he was coach of Lakers…cause that is PWill.

Not great update. And to think I read somewhere yesterday there was rumblings he would be ready in January / worse case by all star break. Can you get medical relief or something for a guy that is too injured to play at some point?

The ability to upgrade the LB corps via free agency should be feasible - plus getting an upgrade at 3-tech as well (and obviously some upper echelon defensive talent should be there when Bears pick too). Will be interesting. My lean would be make most free agent contracts shorter duration and fill voids at right spots - if you are going to spend on higher end - do it at a position you don't think you can address via draft and that is a premium position (i.e., your Payne at 3 tech or one of the tackles).

I think Buckner could also be a target in a Colts deal. But presuming Fields is playing well and they end up with 2 (and its because our defense is putrid - although hopefully some of the young defenders are flashing) - that is a massive win.

We are aligned - it is also why I think it makes sense to make one nice upgrade and than another short term one and than have Colas. They are enough bats to go around but get ways to upgrade outfield defense and speed and reduce pressure on Colas. Let him start in aaa and he can ease his way in when inevitable injury or something else happens. I still like idea of Belly or Benitendi (preference is short term deals - may not be realistic with Beni) and than if I had my luck I would trade prospects for a good cost controlled outfield (has to be good defender and ideally a lefty). When any of these guys go down - you still have Eloy who is a getting time plus Colas or whatever so much better depth and than defensively you are significantly better!

I very much enjoy Landon Donovan and his game calling. Does a nice job as an analyst.

Cause you get a bunch of 1st round picks for taking him on. Getting Westbrook is the 1st move they should do if they plan on blowing it up and essentially tanking the rest of the year.

The reality is - I don't think it would be the coach who is the dumpster fire. Donovan may be not be a top 3 coach, but he is a good coach and well respected. I have issues with his x's and o's down the stretch but he does pretty much everything else really well. It seems to me as if they have there own plan and president and Donovan are really aligned and maybe they were under directive from Reinsdorf to try one thing and than finally if that didn't work, another outcome. It feels though there approach is to try and fall forward vs. tank, but it will be interesting to see what happens. There is no perfect way to win in the NBA these days.

Wow finally finished andor. Absolutely stellar!

Yeah - meaning projected WAR may not be a good thing to than compare to actual WAR contributions and say - well actual teams that made playoffs had 50 WAR but projected WAR is 40; might be apple to apples due to inherent bias or conservatism (no idea as I haven't done a study on it and no clue if someone did).

So by my count we could have gotten at a minimum an extra 20-30 minutes of him including use in a game where he could have been the difference in the US playing Netherlands vs. Senegal. With that said - it is truly unfortunate he had the soft tissue injuries he did and they just kept getting him. In general this squad was snake bitten when it came to availability, especially given the youth of some of its better players. Hoping Pulisic's injury is more mild and he can end up being himself on Saturday.

Plus it is projected WAR which I think typically undershoots actual WAR. All that said - its hot stove season so not bad to see the hypothetical's, but that is what they are. A year ago I think all of the projected WAR's had the Sox as a top 3 team and we know what happened there.

If anything it probably was an outsized used of resources to constantly try to coach them, despite the fact that all the coaching in the world could only do so much and I fully believe it ended up having a detrimental impact on other aspects of the game. I know for a fact Vaughn had to spend a lot of time on non hitting related items, both in the off-season and than how he maintained his body etc during the season and how the mental side of being in that spot certainly had impacts on his ability to be the best pure hitter and ultimately maintain over a full season.

Wales was a perfect game for him to be used. The US was clearly dead and did a poor job utilizing substitutions and even the England game we had a shot and could have used that injection of energy up front and they were very slow to bring him in. I agree he may not be able to start - but leveraging him more in the back half of the game would make a lot of sense.

Well - I don’t love Donovan but I don’t hate him either and I do think a bigger attribute is if they are going to land a star I believe he is generally well respected amongst players as a players coach (the kerfuffle with Lavine a week ago not withstanding and even than the fact that he could do it shows the clout he has). And in hindsight it was the right move to send a message.

Personally I don't understand our inability to use Reyna. But I'm a big believer in Reyna (not just in terms of how he could help the team now - but also in the importance he will have 4 years from now).