Chisoxfn

Bbq at the community pool after getting home. Guess I won’t put this on iPad while kids and wife swim and I cook haha

This is a big deal and something I am very curious to see happen. I am curious to see if Getz makes a move on Paddy. I'm kind of expecting it.

Well he did say - he doesn't want to be used as a reliever or opener or stuff like that. Part of me wonders is part of this him very upset that the Sox used him as an opener in that role. Its interesting because I Just assumed when Sox had him go short that one game and manage him to 75 that was in conjunction and alignment with Crochet but maybe it hasn't been and this is part of him kind of sending a message.

What do you mean - he said he won't pitch in the playoffs - we are not going to lose another game from here on out....LOL. I really wonder if Crochet is doing all of this to try and navigate a transaction to a team he wants to go to. So basically scare off the masses so his agency and him can try and get him to a preferred spot...whatever that is. Maybe he wants to end up on a team like Dodgers or Yankees (or has some other preference) but I could very well see this as a creative strategy to try and make sure he doesn't end up on the Pirates or something.

Whoever said it above - they brought up a real interesting point. If Sox wanted to play hard ball, they really could send him to the minors and start to mess with his arb clock while they manage his arm. I don't think the PR / benefit of doing it is worth it - cause other clubs and players notice those things, but than again, Sox aren't already a lost cause there.

Kopech and Robert. I will caveat I also like the Phils for Robert so I hope both teams are in cause that would be 2 aggressive GM's in the bidding for Robert (and teams with some high end talent I like).

Why is everyone so shocked. I don't get it. Strasburg did this year(s) ago. I'm not saying he is Strasburg but at some point you need to monitor innings and load. I think the bigger piece here is he is making clear he doesn't want to pitch out of the pen. In his mind (whether he is right or wrong) - he believes pitching out of the pen causes all of his injury issues and he wants to continue pitching on 5 days rest. Its unfortunate for the White Sox - and my hope is there is still a team that will pay very high value to get him and can work with him on that plan. The key is - Sox need to kind of get those parameters dialed in enough so he can have that dialogue. It could be starting every 7 days from here on out or some other approach - I don't know. Everything is experimental and that was always the concern all of us had around Crochet. The real hope was - teams would look the other way a bit given how cheap he is for the next few years, how thin the overall pitching market is at the deadline, and how elite he has been thus far. Basically put - hoping the premium for the lack of supply would make up for the other concerns. If it doesn't happen - than the Sox absolutely need to be careful how they handle him so that they can ideally do right by Crochet and have him in a spot where they can deal him in the off-season. I still think he gets traded because of the lack of supply -> but this absolutely throws a wrench but I don't blame him for trying to be careful (I do think it is interesting how this came out - and I suspect it is driven by a few high market teams trying to push some leaks that try to remove some of the smaller market teams from the bidding). So I think there are some angles in the equation.

I've long argued if I were Crochet - knowing I have had a bunch of injuries, the opportunity to get a big bite at the apple is worth it. Make sure you get that generational money. The risk of your arm falling off is not small -> so why take that risk that you have your arm fall off between now and your free agent time and than you are going 1 year at a time, etc. If he were to do a deal where he say buy outs 2 years of arb - so kind of a 4yr extension (2 years of real extension) and were to secure say $80-$100M guaranteed - that is a big deal. Sure, he could wait until free agency and get individual increases and than if all goes right hit FA healthy and than go sign some 5yr 150M deal (plus bank another $30M over next few years with arb raises)...but the downside of it going bad is not so great.

The hope on Colson is - the back injury is just something he has been dealing with and he needs a full off-season to get himself kind of fully right (and that it isn't actually a long-term issue).

Than trade Robert to Phillies for Painter, Crawford, and Caba. Fine if Miller is in and my ideal would have been Painter, Crawford and Miller but Robert has played himself to me hoping we get 2 of the 3 plus a solid third prospect. Trade Fedde for one of Orioles top 50 positional prospect - looking at Orioles - who outbid rival Yankees and Red Sox. Pirates also make a play.

I don’t mind the Dodgers - Crochet for Ryan River, Jackson Ferris, Depaula, and Rushing. Maybe add Kopech or a reliever - If you do add an Outman or one of guys I listed below). Quality and quantity but lacking the sure fire top 25 guy. Also balancing guys near major league ready with a couple pretty young guys. I don’t love Rushing - but he has some power tools. Other names I like in Dodgers system are Kyle Hurt (maybe Bannister can get him to be a starter - worse case he’s a quality cost controlled power arm in the pen). Vargas and Freeland are also intriguing. Vargas super raw but toolsy - kind of like Depaula.

This tnt thing will be interesting. They are clearly going to fight the NBA.

Interesting enough - some of the best teams in baseball right there with the Sox on this one.

The point I would add here - would be if Getz had the mindset that he knows going into this, that JR is NOT going to pony up free agent dollars for pitching or any long term $ to pitching (other than that within the cost controlled window)...than I could at least see the thought process in saying, I need to stack up starting pitching depth first and foremost....I still need positional depth, that is important, but maybe he has a view point that when he needs to, he can get JR to go there a bit as it relates to spending money on positional players. Quite frankly - we know in general the strategy has to be more muted around spending big - but I do think if Getz thought through it from that lens, I'd be happier. I think Hahn viewed everything from - I'm going to get JR to spend like he has never done and than ended up having funds (JR wasn't opposed to giving him money) but JR wasn't just going to let him spend it on whatever he could....than what happened was Hahn was left with funds but told you can't go 4 years on a pitcher or more than x and than instead he said well I got money and he burned that money down by horribly spending it.

I'm surprised given the amount of private funds in this - they wouldn't try to bring the scope of the other project a part of this -> kind of 2 birds, one stone. I get that could make everything drag longer but would seem to be leverage (albeit Wirtz may be less open to that).

I'm in your camp - he has spent a lot of time churning and we can see what he threw out, but at same time we have seen potential wins. Fedde is a huge win and they should get great value for him at the deadline. DeJong and Pham are both going to get value and Grossman got them something. I also think moving Cease when they did worked out well and early returns on Thorpe are positive and we'll see what happens with the rest. But part of the Cease piece is, strategically, I don't think taking the long bet with pitching when you have good offers on the table is a smart move. The risk of injury (regardless of track record) is high, so to me the risk you get 0 vs. 90 cents on the dollar (and even that is debatable) drives me to make the deal vs. the added risk. For example - on Crochet, I would be working every angle to prevent him from making another start. I am so worried when he takes the mound that he'll have a tweak or something pops up. If it does - we go from getting at least 2 top 100 guys (conservatively) to basically being back at square one. Given long-term view of the franchise - that is a risk I'm not willing to take.

I think regarding Crochet - we aren't getting a Chris Sale package. Sale was a better prospect - he was tied to an attractive deal (like Crochet) but he was a proven ace with a long-term track record of durability. Crochet is elite -> no question there, but the durability will cause him to trade at a discount. In fairness, the right demand could drive a team to pay a premium where you get pretty hefty value for him anyway. Tons of teams looking for front end pitching and very minimal supply - so it just takes 2 who can squint and see a strategy to maximize his innings in the post-season and than like the LT attractiveness in the rotation which drives up the value. With that said - I do think Crochet gets a high end prospect - I think if he had a better track record of health you would be talking at the deadline (with this sort of supply and demand) - 2 top 50 and another top 100 plus a flyer (and or international funds / draft picks / etc). Right now my guess is 2 top 100 - one on the higher end and than a quality flyer (low level projectable guy and/or 40 man crunch guy)/funds/draft picks.

Skubal is far more valuable in a trade than Crochet. While Crochet has been dominant this year so has Skubal. And while Skubal, has his own durability issues, he has a much more proven track record as a starter and is also better positioned to log innings down the stretch vs. Crochet. Not saying Skubal is the better pitcher when healthy - but both are very good healthy and if I were a team and I had my choice and the price was the same -> I would take Skubal vs. Crochet. With that said - I'm not sure Tigers are really that serious in moving him, unless of course they can get an absolute haul and it would have to be the type of haul they think would drive immediate value (meaning high end prospects that are either in the majors or near the majors). I'm thinking a package around Holliday + high end pitching prospect (if I use Oriole's as an example).

I actually think as Sox fans we probably overrate what Crochet and Robert get back. In fairness I think we'll get a pretty good return for both - but both have their warts which will impact how high end the return is. On Crochet's case, I've long said the health risk is why I take a deal now (presuming you get 80% of what you want) while as for Robert, given the duration and what I'll call different health risk (cause its there - but in my mind on a position player he's also around long enough that there is going to be a window where he's been healthy for a few months and putting up monsterous numbers - that is when you sell (if you don't think you can get 90% value right now). Re: Fedde - he has one year left in control and every start is showing he's the real deal. I think the Sox aren't going to get an elite guy - but I could see them getting 2 back end top 100 guys plus some international money or draft picks and another intriguing flyer (especially from an org who has a 40 man crunch).

If there was any truth to Francona that would be amazing. That is a legit great baseball mind.

I really don’t think Pedro makes it through the rest of the season. I don’t even know if he makes it to August at this point.

I go back to Crochet is a person we have ridden high - could we get a sligthly less valuation to maximize a 250% return on our money - sure....but we are one quarter away from losing our huge contract and being a penny stock given his track record. So to me - take the pretty good offer if one is on the table. Now if reality is everyone is discounting him and all you get is a back end top 100 guy and a throw-in, than no, I'm not trading Crochet for that and I'll rest him this year and use him as an opener or whatever and than hope to get more out of him in the next couple of years.

I assume Dodgers wouldn't - but it works for me.

If you want someone like him or Outman as like a 4th or 5th piece (lux doesn't make much sense in that case) than fine by me. But they can't be in the top 3 adn if you are getting Lux your view there has to be more like a Rays type of approach where you think him just getting tons of low pressure playing time builds up his value and you can deal him for more in a year (but again - I don't think Sox have a great track record of that yet - but I suppose the theory behind it I could get behind). I don't think Lux would be the guy I'm doing it for - but it would have to be as like the 4th piece (and in my mind Dodgers see more value in keeping him than they would moving him at that point).

Its why the whole - Yankees won't give him up was nuts to begin with. A, he isn't the headliner or shouldn't be and B) if you aren't willing to give him up, you aren't getting much anything anyway. Was always a nothing burger in the media and fact people thought it meant anything around Crochet's value was kind of nuts.