GreenSox

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 04:17 PM) I love what the Mariners are doing. Reminds me of old kenny williams before our pro scouting tanked, getting a lot of chances on proven mlb'ers with question marks for your own mlbers with question marks. I'm glad at least one team is operating like that because it's interesting to watch. And he is paying attention to some oft overlooked details like defense. But I think it has a high chance of crashing.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 01:31 PM) I like Coats So do I But the Sox apparently don't. They keep an awful lot of throw-hard no-control middle relievers around in his stead.

Giolito's a prospect, and like any other prospect in his position, he has another big step to make. We'll find out. Rizzo received immediate and pretty severe media backlash against the trade. I think it's pretty clear he quickly went to Boswell in the Washington media, who wrote a cover piece for him. He reached out to others - Gammons obliged as well.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 2, 2017 -> 09:30 AM) I'll be honest. The odds of Leury being that 25th man on our next playoff team are about the same as discovering that extraterrestrial brain-eating worms (shout out to Mary Elizabeth Winstead's BrainDead) have infiltrated the minds of all our key front office people. Q Rodon Kopech Giolito Lopez Fulmer Hansen Dunning Adams That gives us the framework for one of the top 3-5 rotations in baseball and a dominant bullpen centered around Burdi and whatever's left when all the chips like Robertson and Jones are cashed in (and the starters sort themselves out.) If we don't get what we need for Q, Jones, Frazier and Abreu...it doesn't make any sense to dump the last two for 75 cents on the dollar. Cleveland's budget was stretched to the limit with Encarnacion...to the point where they can't afford Rajai Davis. If they lose Carlos Santana after 2017 to free agency, Encarnacion ages quickly and Brantley never is the same (see Sizemore), they'll be vulnerable more quickly than anyone imagined. Okay - so let's assume that they have the pieces for a rotation that's good to go by 2018. And Collins scores at catcher and Moncada at 2B. Now you need 3 OFs and a 3B and a bench. (L Garcia probably isn't the utility player of the future, but a IF/OF would help a lot to allow some, dare I suggest, platooning at LF/RF/DH with one-sided players who are easier to get). And some depth would be nice. Try to do that amount of holes via FA and trades is precisely what the Sox tried in 2014-mid 2016 that failed. Need to complete the rebuilding. And at some point they may need to trade Frazier at $.75 on the dollar; beats $0 on the dollar.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 29, 2016 -> 11:10 PM) OTOH, we've seen numerous studies showing a HUGE difference in career WAR from the Top 3 picks in the draft, compared to say Picks #8-10. The odds of hitting a superstar in picks 1-3, while higher than 8-10, are still low. Sitting down there to await one player is not a sound approach to building a team.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 2, 2017 -> 12:32 AM) One fourth of SoxTalk is not yet convinced a full rebuild is going on. Until Q is dealt, that will still be the case. One would think that JR, if he wasn't closely paying attention the last four years to the White Sox, would have realized with the start of the current Bulls' season that both franchises need to be completely rebooted. They hit with most of their young pitchers, they're not far away from a .500 team in 2018. They would have a potentially dominant bullpen. If Moncada and Collins are studs, they keep Frazier at a reasonable price, Abreu's got 2018 and 2019...you've suddenly got at least five average or above average players at 2b, C or DH, 3b, SS (Anderson) and 1b. You can definitely see the argument for holding onto Q at least. Corner outfield and DH bats are always more affordable...so let's say you sign Lorenzo Cain for 2018 and 2019, you have a Top Five college bat in the 2018 draft, Saladino possibly as a supersub and the proceeds of Robertson, Nate Jones and Jennings as well. That's the "if everything goes perfectly" scenario; it's the same thinking the Sox counted on in 2016 with Navarro, Jackson, Rollins and Latos, except that they were vets instead of prospects. They need to move Q. That said, they may be interesting in 2018 and certainly in 2019. Sox have a good place from which to rebuild. QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 2, 2017 -> 12:32 AM) With how bad Detroit, KC, and Minnesota should be...tanking again in 2018 becomes more challenging with Moncada, Collins and the young pitchers. On the other hand, Cleveland is not only good on the major league level, but they still have a top farm; the Yankees win 84 or so and have a top farm. The Astros and RedSox may have depleted the farm some, but it's still average and they are full of young talent on the major league level. I would look at a guy like Saladino to see if he can become an average 2b or 3B. That could happen with further improvement with the bat. L Garcia can play IF and OF, and would preclude keeping both a no-hit IF and OF on the roster and save space for a real bat. If he could get the bat above, say, .650 OPS, he could be the super utility player.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 31, 2016 -> 02:19 PM) The price DOESN'T increase, though. Next year's free agent SP class is fantastic, and a bunch of those guys are going to be available at the deadline. You're (all) right that we shouldn't feel the need to move Q for a weak deal, but this is STILL the best opportunity to move him in the foreseeable future, so the goal still absolutely needs to be moving him now. And I'll reiterate again that his "value" has nothing to do with what Chris Sale or other comparable pitchers got in return -- it has to do with how many suitors there are and what those suitors are willing to pay. Every time a guy moves (like Sale) the market changes, because the highest bidder just left the room. +100 Sox need to move him.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 31, 2016 -> 09:54 AM) Asking for Bell is no where near asking for Betts. That's ridiculous. I agree he's not Betts and I said so; but it's the same issue. When top prospects succeed in their cup of coffee, their value to the team, especially a contender, is much higher. Trading young productive hitters opens another hole for them; which they may be able to get by with Jaso et al this year, but the Pirates are not and never will be "all in" for one given year. The Pirates have several other prospects that the Sox could use. As for the Astros, I would consider Reed among the 2nd tier. He failed in his cup of coffee, but may have been rushed a bit, and the value now is heavily discounted. I think they could do a deal with Yankees, if they would take Rutherford + secondary pieces. Is that enough?

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Dec 31, 2016 -> 09:34 AM) Not going to pretend to know a ton about their system, but the Giants system doesn't look to be a great matchup for us. A few good prospects at the top that they probably wouldn't give up and then a bunch of 23-26 year olds with limited ceilings after that. Of course Frazier/Melky would get us a pretty limited return so maybe it wouldn't be too hard to figure a trade out. That's why I think they do match up. Frazier and Melky (and Robertson) would help them, but do not warrant top prospects in return. They Giants I presume have plenty of second-tier prospects (just because they usually do). The Giants don't hype their prospects like the Red Sox and Cubs do, so there may be a fit. My preference, as I've mentioned before, would be to take a hard look at their backup catcher.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Dec 31, 2016 -> 09:28 AM) I agree with all your points except the Pirates. Due to the inclusion of Bell should have no reason saying no in acquiring a talent like Quintana because they still have Freese and Jaso at 1B. Freese and Jaso are old veterans, neither of whom is very good. Bell was very productive for the major league team last year. He was a top prospect, so he has the pedigree. They are trying to win, so why would they give that up? Asking for them to include Bell is as pointless and trade-killing as asking for Mookie Betts was last July (okay, not as silly as asking for Betts, but it's the same problem). Or dare I use another analogy - as pointless as including Trayce in a trade for Frazier, when you had no center fielder to replace him (yes, Bell is better and has the pedigree Trayce lacked; and the Pirates have some sort of backup; but it's just not a move a contender will make).

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Dec 30, 2016 -> 08:47 PM) Which trade would you accept for Q? Do the other teams accept these deals? Q to the Yankees for Frazier, Rutherford, Kaplielian, and Sands Q to the Braves for Albies, Maitian, Soroka, and Toussaint Q to the Astros for Martes, Tucker, Fisher, and Stubbs Q to the Pirates for Glasnow, Bell, Diaz, and Escobar The Sox should accept any of those, with the Astros trade a tad iffy. The Yankees would say no. The Braves would say no. If they actually in position to contend they might say yes, but they aren't. The Astros should say yes; and I think they would had they not overpaid/traded so many prospects in the last 2 years. They still might. The Pirates would say no (due to inclusion of Bell). The Sox may need to trade Rodon at some point, but definitely not yet; let him blossom first, and plenty of time for that.

QUOTE (reiks12 @ Dec 31, 2016 -> 01:58 AM) Do the Sox employ data analysts? Why the hell didnt we attempt to bolster our strength (pitching)? Did they buy into that old crap that they work well with pitchers and TWTW? The Sox' veteran acquisitions almost uniformly under-performed after acquired: Samardzija Robertson Melky (good in 2016; not good in 2015) Navarro Frazier Shields (inexcusable; I'd still like to see the scouting reports that proclaimed "all is well" after the Seattle disaster.) Only Duke and really Avila performed to expectations. And then there were the strange acquisitions: Kahnle, signing Justin Turner to a $1.5 million contract ( 6.5 ERA and And then there was Gonzales, a great get...the freebie acquisition outperforms the players they pay for. And then Flowers actually hits a little bit after he leaves town. A mix of bad luck and poor scouting/use of analytics I suppose.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Dec 30, 2016 -> 07:50 AM) Reading this got me thinking that if Hahn holds out long enough we could see the Rockies legitimately jump into the mix for Q once they trade an outfielder. Sounds alot like Pitt. If the Rockies can find a trade for Blackmon, it would ease the hit their farm would take in a trade for Q. Patience. It's a clear fit, except that I wonder if Q's FB% isn't a little high for their needs, considering their park.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 29, 2016 -> 02:44 PM) They've already found Jonathan Villar, and there are more intriguing possibilities behind him. This is the new way to take your owner's today-money and send it to the future -- the league has successfully capped spending on every form of amateur now. Villar is an interesting case. He had a pretty good year with Houston the year before they traded him. But in that case, the Astros traded back - taking a lower level pitcher - and the Brewers taking someone more advanced. Presumably the reason was the Astros depth in the Middle Infield on the major league team and AAA. The Sox are going to need a couple of those, if not by minor trade (like Thornton) or pure scrapheap (Quintana). Hopefully someone among the Tilsons, Davidsons, Coats becomes a player. Maybe a couple of the 2nd tier prospects they get during dispersal end up being players. And even if they are Ross Gload, well, with the Sox had players worse than him starting last year and haven't had a bench in ages, so a couple of those guys are needed too.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 29, 2016 -> 09:48 AM) Dont you understand that every post must contain a shot at hahn and williams, even when they do exactly what you have been whining about for years? Come on DA, GET WITH THE ANTI HERO This rebuild is obviously so confusing for the front office they dont need more guys to flip its just too much to think about Adding a veteran "slugger" would be doing more of exactly what I've been "whining" about for years. Sorry if I don't share you and Dick's love of declining veterans, crowding out young players and its inevitable result: 78 win baseball. Sell of a few more this winter and then they can add to the inventory.

The Sox have plenty of guys already that they can work on flipping in July: the entire bullpen, Gonzalez, Lawrie, Melky, etc. Adding another guy will just be a distraction from the primary goal of figuring out which among the Saladinos, Tilsons etc are keepers going forward. They have a hard enough time making July trades as it is, and they should have an ample inventory should they decide to get serious in July trades this year.

When the Sox acquired Frazier, he had 2 years left on his contract; now he has 1 year left. His control is 50% less, and there is no reason the Sox should expect anymore than 50% of what they gave up for him. Frazier had a bad year, including leading MLB in infield pop ups. And that was behind a miserable second half to 2015, which most willfully ignored. He will be 31 this season. Could he turn it around? Of course - there's a chance. But teams won't pay any sort of premium right now to see that happen. His value will be better in June or July if he has a good year...it's worth the risk to wait. Quintana, on the other hand, just delivered his fourth quality season. He's consistent as heck and it is his consistency that puts him in the top tier category, if not the ace. A fifth good year added on to four, doesn't really raise his value; and he's not going to suddenly start throwing 96 to get teams to pay for his "stuff." The greater risk is that he has an off year, and that will kill his value as his value is one of consistency and contract, not stuff. A seller's market will not exist this time next year. Quintana needs to be moved.

Why? (ther than the fact that Hahn/Williams have a general affectation for high K slugger types) They areon't winning with or without this "slugger". Much more productive to give Avi his last hurrah.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Dec 28, 2016 -> 08:45 AM) I bet that Yency Almonte for Kahnle trade last off-season is one Hahn wishes he had back. The Kahnle trade was pointless from the get-go (Sox had several Kahnles), with little to gain at the cost of an interesting low-level minor leaguer with upside. Shields trade was similarly nonsensical. Hahn should wish he had every trade from 2014-2015 back.

Where's Kahnle? Sox dump him?

I'm not sure where to put this, but i really enjoyed your Lechich piece- or his piece. (you're Future Sox, right?). his offspeed stuff looked pretty good in the youtubes I looked at.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 27, 2016 -> 04:24 PM) If they're not trading Meadows then they HAVE to move McCutchen right? Because otherwise there simply isn't anywhere for Meadows to play this year, and whatever they do with Mccutchen fundamentally changes the names we could put on the list. It appears that they want to move McCutchen. But he's an extremely difficult player to value... terrible 2016 in his magic 30 year. I can't see a team risking trading a top prospect for him; and the Pirates, understandably, want one. I can see a team doing some volume with second tier prospects.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 27, 2016 -> 03:23 PM) I personally don't think that offer is light at all. I just think Luhnow doesn't realize that in the modern MLB that you have to really go for it when you have a window and that sometimes means trading away quality prospects. Epstein most definitely overpaid for Chapman but it helped them get a ring. Can't be a major league GM and he afraid to make a move like that if you want to win a title. As of last summer, the only one of those guys that Law had ranked was Tucker at 32, so one can see why Law would think it light - based on his own evaluation.

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Dec 27, 2016 -> 02:26 PM) Me thinks Hahn/Cashman are using Twitter/National Writers as a way to stir the pot and/or put pressure on other teams. All of this stuff is intentional. Agree. Nightengale is a definitely a whitesox gawker. I think he'll end up in Houston for Martes, Tucker and someone other than Musgrove. But to me he is perfect for Pittsburgh. A team with limited payroll that can appreciate Q's contract; he's consistent and as "low risk" as possible re established upper tier pitchers; and Pitt consistently develops prospects, such that they are likely to recoup what they lose.

Brett Gardner going back to the Pirates would make sense. Yanks get McCutchen Sox get Glasnow. Rutherford and Newman or someone Pirates get Q and Gardner Probably someone would have to throw some cash at Pirates.