[Tigers interested in Reed?]

The problem with this is that Castellanos is too much for Reed, but the Tigers don't have anything else that's worth him.

I guess he is, based on how teams value elite prospects...higher than above average major leaguers.

 

We could throw in another player...hell throw in Crain, although they'd probably have to add something on their side. It would be nice to get an elite prospect somwhere, instead of all Bs.

[Tigers interested in Reed?]

Wtf??!! Those trades happened 16 years ago! And the philosophy is "don't trade within your division", not league. The Sox have made plenty of trades within the American League, both before and after the White Flag trade

I don't care if it was 160 years ago - it's a bad philosophy. And that is precisely why we dealt with the Giants then instead of stealing from the desperate Mariners.

If you have to deal with Detroit, deal with Detroit. Yea, we'll have to look at Reed for a while...they'll have to look at Castellanos.

 

And while I never heard Williams say he wouldn't sell to the AL or to our division, he rarely did and only once to a contender as I recall (Durham to Oakland). The other time was E Jax to non-contender Toronto. But he rarely sold in July anyway, so that may not mean much.

[KW still GM?]

I talked to a Sox executive yesterday who told me it's not Kenny's job anymore. This is a Hahn operation.

Good.

Kenny had his moments of brilliance, but it was time for a change.

[Tigers interested in Reed?]

I don't care who we trade him to. Whoever offers the most and the most must be a lot. Castellanos would work fine.

 

We lost out on Veritek and Lowe because of that sorry philosophy of not helping a team in your league...Boston go those two for 1/3 of the value we sent to SF for, essentially, Foulke and Howry.

[Peavy to Boston, Avisail Garcia + 3 low lv specs to Sox]

It seems like there is too much importance being put on this start for Peavy. Teams aren't going to base Peavy's value on 1 start. As long as he shows he's healthy, it doesn't matter whether he throws a shutout or gets shellacked. If he's hitting the numbers on the gun and able to throw all his pitches are what the teams are going to want to see.

 

It's not like if he throws 7 scoreless inning that Boston, or whoever, is going to start adding pieces to the mix. Teams know by now the limits they are willing to stretch for just about any player.

But all that's going to happen in this start.

He'll either hit is numbers and pitches or he won't in this start...Yes, it's important.

What if he doesn't have his velocity and he can't throw key pitches for strikes? Wouldn't you say that's a negative re his value?

 

[KW still GM?]

Floyd was the definition of dumpster-diving. He was literally a throw-in in that deal, the Phillies were probably on the verge of dumping him, he'd failed a couple times for them already.

WE traded Garcia to get Gio back; but then Williams gave him to Oakland when he paid double any reasonable price for a decent hitter in Swisher.

 

Hopefully they are letting Hahn negotiate these trades.

[Peavy to Boston, Avisail Garcia + 3 low lv specs to Sox]

No need to settle for anything with Peavy. He will be in the same situation Garza is now, next year.

Agree.

Yea he could get hurt again. What's the loss? The pittance we'd settle for if we settle.

[Peavy to Boston, Avisail Garcia + 3 low lv specs to Sox]

I trust Red Sox and DBacks systems. I would stay away from the Rockies and giants systems.

Why?

[Pirates looking at Rios and Alexei]

There would have to be significant $$ going to PITT and I'm not sure Rick would do that right now.

 

Considerations is a bigtime debate in the offices...almost more than target players right now.

I hope that doesn't mean that they are in salary cutting mode.

 

The deal I saw had Rios and Alexei going for some somewhat youngish Pirate bench players - numbers looked like those thrown up by Viciedo and Flowers, with a moderate upgrade over Dylan Axelrod.

I'd much rather A and A ball players with some upside but more risk.

[Should sox ride sale less on throw away seasons?]

What they need to do is work on their efficiency so that they can throw 8 or 9 innings on fewer pitches. This is particularly true for Santiago. But there's no reason to throw these guys 110+ innings. Going more innings is the goal - not throwing more pitches. The Sox lead the league in high inning starts and I am not to the point where I think that Robin Ventura knows more than his peers.

[Should sox ride sale less on throw away seasons?]

Aces are usually one and the same

Often they are.

But they aren't routinely pitched 115 innings plus like Ventura pitches our pitchers. Pitching their arm off isn't how they became aces.

[Peavy to Boston, Avisail Garcia + 3 low lv specs to Sox]

Before Garza goes, Peavy is the best pitcher on the market. Levine is high on drugs.

Exactly.

But this is the Bruce Levine who said Kevin Gregg would be a great pickup for some team.

[Should sox ride sale less on throw away seasons?]

Yes.

We don't need him as an innings eater. We need him as an ace, front of the rotation starter.

And our other young pitchers should be ridden less as well. This team doesn't exist so that Ventura and Cooper can scratch out 70 wins instead of 65

[Pirates looking at Rios and Alexei]

Looking at some of the names in the Pirates system, RHRP Victor Black seems like someone who might be a guy the Sox look at as part of a package. Had some arm problems as a starter but has remained healthy since being moved to the bullpen, and also struggles with control at times, but has a power arm and is close to MLB ready. Since a lot of the guys in this bullpen seem to be on their way out, it might not be a bad idea to bring in some young, cost controlled replacements.

 

Andrew Oliver also seems like someone the Sox could possibly want as a throw in. He seems like a classic Coop project who has good stuff but struggles with control.

These are basically C+ prospects. I think we could probably get 1 B in addition or in lieu of one, but that's about it. But we'll see. Low ceiling pitchers (i.e. bullpen pitchers) aren't my cup of tee in trades - we can develop those or get them in the offseason.

[Rios, $1M traded to Rangers]

Good lord, I am happy you're not the GM. If the SOX are moving Rios, Peavy and sending $10M in the deal, they better be getting some very legitimate talent ready to produce by next year. If not, why trade them? Neither have outrageous contracts. No point in trading guys just to trade them, the SOX have plenty of money coming off the books in the next 36 months. I just don't think the SOX will trade guys to drop payroll to $60M and be the Marlins next year, and the move you suggested would be just that.

It's not what I want. I just see a dry market. Hope I'm wrong.

 

The Peavy/Garza question above is a good one. Peavy at his best his better, his career is better. He's signed for longer. His salary is higher and Garza's had a really good year. And Peavy is fresh off injury. Garza should give us an idea of what we'll get.

[Rios, $1M traded to Rangers]

The problem is that the classic buyers aren't really in buyer mode this year - Dodgers have bought enough, Yankees aren't buyers, Angels aren't buyers. Tigers and BoSox could be but they don't really need starters. The Nats will buy when appropriate, but they aren't buying either. Atlanta has been gunshy for years.

 

I think we'll get an idea of what the market looks like when Garza is traded...Cubbies in high Media frenzy to try to get a trade done. My guess is they get a 51-100 prospect for him. If they do better, that should portend well for us.

I'd guess something like Peavy, Rios and $10 mill to the Rangers for 2 B prospects and a youngish backup on their ML roster. We might be able to squeeze Olt out of them, as his stock is dropping fast (and he was always overhyped).

Crain to someone for a B.

That's about it.

[Let's talk about Adam Dunn destinations]

I certainly think issues such as lazy defense, bad base running and poor managing has contributed to half of our misery this year. I don't know the extent to which WAR measures those factors. The team isn't very good, but the starting pitching is good, the front of the bullpen was too prior to Crain's injury. Certainly not a horrendous team as it has played, although a below average team.

[Make a case for a new manager in 2014]

Jackson 2 was perfectly fine. Jackson was a sunk cost at that point, so they dealt him, got rid of Teahen's mini-albatross of a contract, pick up good pitching prospect (Stewart busted) and a reliever who was then dealt back to the Jays for Myles Jaye (solid prospect) and Daniel Webb (top 10 prospect).

Jackson 2 was terrible. WE took one of the top available starters at the deadline, and salary dumped him and Teahen. We got a mediocre middle reliever and a prospect who was in decline. We recouped with the subsequent trade of the reliever back to the Jays. But Jackson 2 was beyond awful - didn't make any effort at all to get talent out of that deal. We did it to dump salary (Jackson was pitching very well) and to help out Toronto who needed him to get the CF they wanted from Stl.

 

Maybe I'm jaded because WE gave up our 2 top pitching prospects for him a year earlier, at a time when Az was looking for a salary dump and he had an ERA in excess of 5.

[Let's talk about Adam Dunn destinations]

If we'd have to eat 80% of the salary you're right. This whole discussion was driven by statements that if a team would pick up much more than that (i.e. claim Dunn on waivers or something like that) the Sox would hesitate.

Sure, if someone pick up his whole salary they'll let him walk. But they won't because he's not close to worth it.

Otherwise, I'd rather have him around than a bunch of Danks Jrs and DeWayne Wises at DH.

[Let's talk about Adam Dunn destinations]

There's really no point in dealing Dunn. We'll eat 80% of the salary, get nothing back, and then have to scramble to find a DH. He's a sunk cost, and he's fine right there as we rebuild. He's not a clubhouse distraction nor does he create any other negatives.

[Make a case for a new manager in 2014]

Some would argue that the Thome/Rowand trade set them back even more. I liked Ozzie's philosophy on that but they had the wrong people for it. The DH has always been a money pit for the Sox.

That one's a close call. Rowand was going to cost us money, and we got Gio back in a great Williams trade of Garcia for Floyd and Gio.

Swisher 1, and Edwin Jackson 1, all set us back.

Swisher 2, Vasquez 1, Vasquez 2, and Jackson 2 set us back in terms of opportunity cost - lost opportunity to get some talent in here or keep what we had.

[Make a case for a new manager in 2014]

The factor in this manager mess is Don Cooper. He was extended before Ventura was hired and he, reportedly, was one of Ozzie's big detractors. Ventura was hired despite not being on a bench in a decade for 2 reasons I think - he'd be loyal to Williams and he'd work with Cooper.

While I think the Sox have been poorly managed this season (and weren't managed well last year either), Cooper may be a shadow manager here too as well.

When you hire family, it's not easy to get rid of them. But the Sox really need to bring a group of baseball professionals in here next year.

[Castro sent down]

I would bet that Troncoso would have to be exposed to waivers to go down.

Not to be flip, but ...So?

 

But you're probably right. Heck, they supposedly kept Wise a while back because someone might claim the 36 year old who can't hit a lick.

[Make a case for a new manager in 2014]

One thing he routinely does is to refuse to use a better reliever in a high leverage situation if it isn't in the last 35% of the game. If a pitcher is in trouble in the 4th, out comes the worst arm in the pen. The 2nd Detroit game, down 2, 4th inning or so with Detroit runners on and 2 outs, he goes to the back of the pen, saving the better reliever for later in the game. Well, there was nothing to save them after for after that inning. That's happened on numerous occasions this year.

He's also put a ton of pitches on the young starters. Last year, we were in a race, so there perhaps was a case to be made. But pitching these guys 120 pitches for this team? Absurd.

[Rios, $1M traded to Rangers]

People get run out of workplaces all of the time because of personality conflicts. It is normal. A boss wants "his" guys.

If we had a real professional manager who was building this team for the long-haul, I can understand. But the Sox gave Swisher away because he smited Ozzie, after we paid a heavy price for him a year earlier. You can't just give players away. And if teams do that, why haven't we gotten our share of gifts?

 

Getting some replacement level or a little above players is fine. But we won't do anything if we don't have a couple of really stud hitters around them. This team has several of those replacement+ types - Alexei, De Aza two name two, although they have debased themselves this year with poor defense and clowning on the basepaths.