striker

Mets make the most sense imo. Not sure how you can throw down $700m for Soto and not give him more support.

Sounds like Sox were asking for a couple of Arroyo, Burns, Lowder from the Reds

Sox need to hold onto Robert until the trade deadline, gives us something to talk about.

Do you think Robert has more value than Lux?

This is why you trade for guys whose stock is down, like Lux/Outman/Baty/Gilber

Admit all of their risks but split your stock to reduce your risk. Do you play the $1 slot once or the .50 cent twice.

So if Acuna + Baty is not enough, then what would the ask from NYM be? Is the difference worth the risk and the cost? Your risk of trading Robert now is his value is low. What does that mean trade wise? Today you get Acuna but if you wait and his value goes up you get Jet Williams? Is that gain really that much and worth the risk? If you hold onto Robert and his 2025 is just like 2024, then do you get anything for him at all? Acuna helps fill our up the middle needs (CF/SS), has speed (which helps carry value defensively and on the bases), has a good history of walking/hitting/low strike outs in the minors and has had a good strikeout rate with his limited time in the majors. Baty too has a great track record in the minors with walks and slugging, and grades out well with baseball savant and fangraphs defensively at 3rd. Sign me up.

I like the Mets as a trade partner. They need a cf and a bat to protect Soto. They have a lot good not great prospects, most of which are blocked. Williams, Baty, Acuna, Maricio, Gilbert, Clifford, Rodriguez, Benge. Give me three of them and call it good.

Seems like Sox fans are down on Robert and would rather sell low. BTV has him around $13m in surplus (less then 3war/season). The prospects you get at that level would be pretty risky imo. If you hold onto him for the first half and he tears it up, then his surplus could almost triple. 4war would be $80 in value over 2.5 years with about $47.5m in cost. Its a contract year for him so I would hold at $13m in surplus value.

I don’t think we turned it down, I think Gammons said we were asking for Martes, Tucker and Musgrove for Quintana

Robert makes sense for the Astros too. Send Cam Smith+ to the Sox

How much war do you believe Robert will produce the next 3 seasons? I am thinking 11 war.

Haven’t heard the Brewers mentioned until now. Thoughts on their system? I wonder if this is to push the Cubs forward.

No one is trading us a superstar

So you get Campbell at 3 war and another piece. That other piece doesn’t hit (see history). You go from 1 war at 2b to 3war for a 5 war pitcher. My approach improves the team faster and decreases your risk because you aren’t hedging your bet on unproven commodities. When you have 10 holes in the boat you focus first on plugging holes, THEN you make the boat look nice. I also don’t think anyone is going to give us a top 50 prospect for Crochet and if they do, the second piece is going to he an even riskier bet.

I would do this in a heartbeat. You plug 3 holes. Sox were ca: -2.4, 1b: -1, rf: -2.4. That trade is a 10 war improvement. People are nuts wanting prospects. Why get some dude you hope is a major league regular when you can just get major league regulars.

That's my point, yes Moncada was worth more than Basallo, but Sale was worth more than Crochet. Moncada:Sale = Bosallo:Crochet. I didn't think Kopech was that high yet but sounds like he was.

I don't think Orioles bite on that. I compare Crochet to Sale and Q trades. Sale/Q had more surplus value but still just netted 2 top 100s and some throw ins. The top piece was a bat but the 2nd top piece was an arm (which comes with more risk than a bat). If I'm Elias, I'm also asking for Kopech in that deal. If I'm Getz, I'd do Basallo, Norby, Beavers, an arm (De Leon/Baumeister/Armbruester) for Crochet and Kopech.

Tigers spend though, they will actually pay to extend their star pitcher, unlike Reinsdorf.

I like the Mets as a dark horse for Crochet. Baty, Gilbert, Clifford, Acuna, Mauricio, Jett are all nice bats. Sproat and Tidwell are interesting srms.

All players come with risk. If Dombrowski offered Painter and Miller, they come with risks. Painter just had tj, Miller has performed but still in A:A+. In fact, if Robert is traded it will probably be for highly rated A/A+ level prospects. AA and AAA come with less risk. Miller (A+) and Mayo (AAA) are both 55s. Miller comes with more risk though because of less experience.

I value him at 14 war over the next 3.5 years. That is ($9x14)-61=$65m in surplus value. I don’t sell for anything lower. Even with his injury history, he can give you 2 war in a season.

Well played

I got to thinking about luck, both bad and good. Sox are lucky this year to have Fedde and Crochet having the years they are having. 2 of the best 15 pitchers in ALL OF BASEBALL. That was not something that was predicted. If they don’t trade Cease they have 3 of the top 20 pitchers in baseball. That is pretty awesome. Their bullpen has sucked but they also traded a really good reliever in Santos. Sure he has been injured but he is coming back. They have a ton of blown saves. If they are league average, maybe that’s a 10-15 game win swing. They could have signed Pham in the beginning of the year which would have added wins. Mayne they caved too soon. Don’t trade Cease or Santos. Robert, Moncada and Santos stay healthy. Sign a bat like Teoscar. Maybe this is a good team in 2024. My point being, maybe this team is closer to contention than we think. Maybe we don’t have to sell off everyone. My challenge for you is to make a plan to get us close to .500 in 2025 with a $170m payroll.