False Alarm

QUOTE (beck72 @ Dec 21, 2008 -> 04:16 AM) From Minor League Baseball: For 2007: "Was 15-9 with a 3.65 ERA (155.1IP, 166H, 80R, 63ER, 44BB, 94K) in 27 starts with Double-A Trenton...opponents batted .270 (166-for-615, 11HR); LH .292 (83-for-284, 5HR), RH .251 (83-for-331, 6HR)...led the Eastern League in wins, ranked second in innings pitched and placed 10th in ERA... his 15 wins placed him second among all Double-A pitchers and tied for ninth overall in the minors..." Also the Eastern League All Star Game Starting Pitcher GB / FB rate: 1.30, not 52% nothing in this post takes issue with anything i said. not sure why you posted it, to be honest. as for his GB rate, my number comes from minor league splits (52.7% at AA trenton in 2007): http://www.minorleaguesplits.com/cgi-bin/pl.cgi?pl=457812. not sure where your 1.30 ratio comes from.

marquez's 2007 at AA was nothing special at all. his groundball percentage--at AA--was only 52% (for a guy who's billed as a sinkerballer/groundball machine). his k/9 was bad. it's well established that ERA doesn't predict future performance very well. there's no recent scouting report that indicates his stuff is good again now, and everyone can agree that his 2008 was spectacularly bad. i have no idea why anyone would think he'd be decent at the major-league level in any role whatsoever in 2009. i hope the chisox scouts have, like, inside info or something that's not apparent to us, but with the info we have, it's unrealistic to expect a notable contribution out of him in the bigs this year.

i'd never sell my post count.

i'd guess we're 15-20. my top 10 off the top of my head: 1. beckham 2. viciedo 3. flowers 4. poreda 5. allen 6. danks 7. lillibridge 8. getz 9. gilmore 10. carter (or maybe hudson)

QUOTE (santo=dorf @ Dec 2, 2008 -> 04:51 PM) No two draft picks =/= young players because they will be more expensive (if they even sign,) have less experience, and cannot be immediate trading chips for a possible larger package. i think it's funny that you're complaining about draft picks being too expensive. don't hear that one much around here.

anyone ever paid for movers? i didn't know whether to tip them when i moved into my current house...

QUOTE (scenario @ Nov 22, 2008 -> 01:55 AM) He just turned 20. That means he is 2-3 years younger than most of the other real prospects... not 4-5 years. Most 24-25 year olds still in AA are not prospects. he played the season at 19. he was about four years younger than an average AA prospect--and held his own. birthday is huge. and yeah, the scouting reports say the tools are outstanding. compare what he did as a 19-year-old at AA (or even as an 18-year-old the year before) to what, say, jose martinez or escobar did as 19-year-olds at low A for the chisox. plenty of reason for caution or skepticism or whatever, since we haven't seen the power develop yet, but he's a very good prospect.

QUOTE (Flash Tizzle @ Nov 18, 2008 -> 10:45 AM) It's encouraging to read of Beckham's success. I hope people realize that it's our terrible 2007 (and Cincinnati selecting Alonso) that made this possible. In fact, myself and many others here were upset they didn't lose MORE games in 2007. Every victory after midseason was a useless victory in my mind. Our system was (well, still is) one of the worst in the majors and any additional boost to our chances of selecting a talented prospect was worth the embarrassment of potentially losing 100 games. I know the "I NEVER WANT THE SOX TO LOSE" fanboys didn't think so, but their kind is unable to look into the future. Entering last summer the White Sox desperately needed their high selection to be successful. So far, it looks good. This isn't even including the numerous other draftees who have shown promise in their first professional seasons. Sure, it's always a combination of luck (ie, players falling past their projected position) and the ability of an organization to identify the right talent. It's just easier for these forces to come together at 8th overall opposed to the 15-25 range we usually found ourselves in. Yes, Beckham hasn't proven himself; but atleast there's someone available from within that will provide one less question mark either midseaon 2009 or entering 2010. that's hilarious that you just called white sox fans rooting for their team to win "fanboys" and implied that they're some kinda insipid strain of fan or something. hey, check it out: s***ty teams pick near the top of the draft annually and stay s***ty all the time in every sport. further, MLB draft studies've shown pretty definitively that unless you picking #1 overall, there ain't much difference between draft slots in the first round. that is, the correlation between draft slot and acquiring an impact MLBer is minimal. so, historically, picking #2 has only the tiniest bit better chance of rendering an impact player than picking #8. or #15 (in fact, as of 2005 the #15 pick had on average rendered a higher WARP than the #8). or whatever. so maybe you should lay off peeps rootin for their team to win games. they ain't as short sighted as you think. and maybe you ain't lookin to the future as much as you think, or ain't understandin what you lookin at anyway.

from peter gammons' blog 11/15/08 (this is secondhand btw so i ain't positive it's a direct quote): interesting if true.

QUOTE (Texsox @ Nov 14, 2008 -> 08:29 PM) Shhhh you're making sense. No seriously, we need to trade guys with value and keep the guys that suck, so the team will not suck more accurately, we need to trade the guys due for a decline in value in 2009 and keep the guys due for an increase in production and value in 2009. if you think the 2008 version of nick swisher is what to expect over the life of his contract, yeah he sucks and the trade was fine. no idea why anyone would think that though. his 2008 line-drive rates/BABIP and pre-2008 numbers all suggest .219 isn't his normal performance level and that he'll bounce back next year. even 25 more points of average (and i think he is a .244 career hitter, IIRC) would make swish a pretty useful player. ----------------------- KW's earned a lotta credit with me so i ain't worked up about this, but my first impression is that this is a bad trade. those minor-league arms we got are a joke, and it's absurd that anyone in this thread would compare their acquisition to those of danks or floyd (i liked both those deals immediately, btw). floyd and danks were both drafted near the top of the 1st round (not in the sandwich round). compare their minor-league strikeout rates to marquez's. they had stuff, even if peeps were down on em. marquez struck out 33 guys in 80 freaking innings in AAA last year. oh, but he's a groundballer and built for the cell, right? his minor-league GB% is just barely over 50%, and he allowed 12 HR in those 80 innings last year. that's in the minor leagues; what'll happen in the bigs, in the cell? and there's nothing especially intriguing in any recent scouting report either. dude's way closer to nick massett as a prospect than floyd or danks or garland. i hope i'm wrong and that the sox see something no one else does, and i'll happily eat crow if he turns into anything better than an OK 5th starter, but it's tough to imagine from looking at the guy.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Nov 6, 2008 -> 05:28 PM) That would take his fastball from 99-100 down to 94-95, still not 90 mph. The guy flat out wont throw 90 mph, he just wont, you dont lose 10 mph on your fastball because you are trying to control it now, even though you had good control of it before. i imagine if he posted a 90-mph fastball it was either a slow gun or him intentionally dialing down his heater (maybe both). nothin much to worry about. btw despite his sometimes touching 99 (and even 100 once on a supposedly fast birmingham gun), i think the reports generally list him as sitting at 96-97. i like that he descibes poreda as having a "good slider." not "developing," not "improving," not "potentially useful," but "good." i ain't heard a clear statement like that about poreda's secondary stuff since we drafted him. i'm way more excited about that than i am worried about 90 mph.

sickels on sox players after his trip to the AFL: http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/11/4/6...ghts-on-arizona don't like to hear that about beckham but i don't put much stock in it at this stage, especially with the amount of playing time he's getting down there.

QUOTE (Kenny Hates Prospects @ Nov 4, 2008 -> 04:17 AM) Another bump... Does anyone know anything about Jose's injury yet? Like, is he expected to be ready for ST next year? How did he get injured? What did he injure? Is his injury significant enough to take away his status as a prospect? If no one knows anything about this guy, is there someone that one of the minor league gurus here could email to find out? I'd really like to know what is going on with this dude. He went from supposedly being our best position prospect in terms of ceiling to disappearing somewhere in the Bermuda triangle. FWIW i'm pretty sure i remember reading something somewhere corroborating bureau's statement that he'd injured his leg and would be out for the year. sorry, can't remember where i saw it (it was several months ago obviously). and i'm only 90% sure i even did. i think it was a broken leg or ankle (not a knee or muscle i don't think). if that's the case i'm hoping it shouldn't affect his prospect status (eg, the way a wrist injury can sap power) and that he'll be ready to go from day 1 next year.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 5, 2008 -> 05:12 PM) I get that we would be selling "low," but how many times has KW gone out of traded one of our best players (on the major league roster) in the prime of their career, down year or not? Aaron Rowand? Well, 2005 wasn't his best year, not even close. Garcia was coming off a so-so year and was injury-plagued and had diminished velocity when we dealt him for Gavin. He very rarely makes trades with our core players (from the starting line-up)...with the exception of Carlos Lee, and that was mostly about payroll, but also about changing the "me first" attitude of the team offensively, along with letting Magglio go (and we all agree, coming off hernias and Swiss doctors and the mystery that it would have been insane to sign him for the money and length of contract the Tigers did). Recently, the only other players that come to mind are probably McCarthy and Chris Young, although there were question marks if they were ready to be regular contributors for the Sox in the following seasons... yeah, kenny doesn't deal core guys--except when he does. and are you saying the perception of 2005 aaron rowand was that he had a disappointing season? cuz that's not what i remember at all. but you'll have trouble finding me someone who doesn't consider swish's 2008 disappointing. also, stop conflating our speculating about what we think would be best for the team with what we think kenny'll do. i already said he probably sees angles here you and i'll never consider. i thought this was basically a thread for joe fan to discuss what he thinks are the best ways to reshape the team. my bad if i was mistaken. i like dye. love him even. but he makes the most sense to move at this point. you've said nothing to make anyone think otherwise, from where i stand. i guess i'd like to see you make a case for him rather than harping on kenny's history or talking about how some team wouldn't like him or basically dwelling on the idea of unloading our trash for someone else's really good avg-contact-def middle infielder.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 5, 2008 -> 07:57 AM) By trading Dye to the Angels, are you assuming they are going to DH him or Guerrero? Neither one of those guys wants to sit on the bench the majority or even half the season? Or I guess you're thinking they would move Dye to LF? Generally, not the wisest move to include top young pitching prospects in trades for position players. Keep in mind, the Angels probably won't re-sign Garland, so Adenhart will be given every chance to be the fifth starter IMO. Adenhart has been perenially ranked in the Top 30-40 players in baseball...and, once again, he's a young/affordable pitcher (which is the single most valuable commodity in the game). Many fans here would not even be convinced we should accept a Figgins for Poreda deal...and Poreda isn't even a consensus member of the Top 50 MLB prospects list, probably closer to 75-125. But you want them to give up Adenhart too? I just doubt, with their history of holding on to most of their prospects, that they would contemplate such a move. It also makes them too old...they have Guerrero already getting into his 30's as well, along with Hunter. They would become more like the White Sox, and I don't think that's Scioscia's goal. Of course, that style which has led to the highest winning percentage in baseball has failed to even get them into the World Series once during that time. i guess i could rebut each point here, but you're kinda using a bazooka on an anthill by fixating on my off-the-cuff angels trade. (though, yes, of course i was thinking they'd stick dye in left. that's why i was talking about dye in relation to anderson.) trade him to a different team, if you can find a match. main point, as i said, was that i think we should focus on trading dye. don't matter to me where he goes as long as it gets us help in some of the areas we've talked about. there seems to be a thought floating around that by emptying all our guys who had s***ty seasons (eg, swish, vazquez, fields) we'll get good value back. that mystifies me. no one'll want those guys coming off seasons like this, and given their age and past performance they're all reasonably likely to perform better next season. you'd be selling low on them and hanging on to a good candidate for decline in dye. that's strange to me.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 5, 2008 -> 06:24 AM) Well, there's no way we'll get Adenhart AND Figgins for Dye. The thing you have to always take into consideration is that Dye leads all MLB RFers over the time he's been in Chicago with homers. Second, we play in the most homer-friendly park in the majors. Maybe Swisher can get the job done...maybe. But all the other teams in the league know that Dye is advancing in years, has very little range in the outfield and is close to being a full-time DH. His contract is fairly reasonable at $11 million, but, once again, other teams must be thinking the same thing...age, take him out of Comiskey, it's a big risk. He's one of the big reasons we have such a home field advantage playing in Chicago. And, he is signed through only 2009, so another team won't part with a starter and a pitcher at this stage in his career. Not going to happen. And the Angels already have Guerrero, Rivera, Hunter, Mathews and Anderson for their OF/DH position. Not a fit to get Dye there. They would be much more likely to consider trading Figgins for Swisher and maybe a Tier B prospect in our system. Second, I don't think KW goes into 2009 looking to defend the AL Central title with Getz envisioned as a starter. Getz and Fields, at best, are back-up plans for KW. Or trading chips at worst. first, dunno what the option is on anderson's contract but of course that was why i thought they'd look at dye--anderson's original four years are up. , and they've, rightfully, never treated rivera or matthews as starters. you don't think they'd see dye as an upgrade on them? swisher OPSed higher than figgins last year, is younger, and has a reasonable contract. we ain't gonna give up him and change to a team who doesn't even value the kinda player he is (but very much does value the kinda player dye is). more to the point, you're quibbling. i think it's silly that you dismiss my suggestion of dye for a sub-700-OPS hitter (who's also in his last year btw) and a pitcher with an AAA ERA > 5, but fine. i don't care if it's the angels, but dye needs to be the guy we move to balance the team. if it's crisp and change or whoever, fine. but you seem determined to move swisher instead. i dunno why. and i dunno what anyone could possibly think he'd bring back. swisher and vazquez for roberts? you really think the O's'd consider that? and maybe throw in adam jones if we added poreda? not, as you say, going to happen. second, i agree that kenny ain't seein getz and fields as starters. never said otherwise. i also think it's silly to think that he's gonna be able to upgrade on both of them and simultaneously CF and the rotation. one of them is likely to play a significant role if the 2009 team is successful. i think it'd be wise to acknowledge that and roll the dice (as he did with floyd and danks this year). kenny's probably got another angle, thank god, but i don't see a choice right now.

sorry, i skipped a page or so of this thread so maybe this idea's already been ridiculed, but why are we not talking about trading dye to balance this team out a little? he's 35 on opening day and is coming off a great bounceback year well past the age when most players decline for good. perfect sell-high time. peeps are understandably squeamish about swish, but his trade value's s*** right now and he's young enough to rebound (and past performance [as well as BABIP and line-drive rates this year] suggests it's likely that he'll improve). konerko and thome are immoveable so it's gotta be dye. i think it'd be best to put swish and quentin in the corners and trade dye for either an SP or a position player with good contact, speed, and obp. the other problem with improving our balance or speed or whatever is that cabrera's leaving. so not only do we need to replace him with someone who can do some of those things, we need to bring in someone else who can do them (while getting rid of a HR statue) if we're actually gonna reshape the team a bit. because of this fact (and beckham), i'm in favor of giving getz every chance to become a regular on the '09 team rather than paying in money or talent for hudson or cano. getz can run, even if he's not a superior SB guy, so if he can get on base enough in the majors i'd love to see him there for us next year. i dunno what i'd ask for for dye though. my first thought was figgins and adenhart for dye, since i thought anderson's contract was up, but after looking at figgins' SLG this year i dunno. i think he had one triple. and dude ain't young. but if he could bounce back a bit for a year, i wouldn't mind signing blake (warts and all) and putting the best three of figgins, BA, fields, blake, and getz, at CF, 3B, and 2B in whatever combo necessary (within reason: i don't want fields at CF). maybe sign a veteran SP to help improve the competition for the back of the rotation. but i dunno. adenhart don't look ready, and LAA are weird about their prospects. and no one'lll acknowledge this post anyway. it's all good.

QUOTE (scenario @ Oct 2, 2008 -> 01:30 AM) I agree falsealarm. I'm not trying to suggest that we have boatloads of talent in the upper minors. It's pretty obvious that we don't because we traded away our best talent... most of which is sitting in the Oakland A's system right now. (3 of Oakland's top 10 prospects are former WhiteSox.) But I just feel compelled to respond when posters suggest our farm system sucks because we don't have guys on top 20 lists. BTW, Cassel isn't 25. He just turned 24 in late September. So... he'll spend a whole season in AAA next year at 24 years old. And Lucas Harrell just turned 23 mid-summer. I think Poreda didn't make it because he was listed as a top prospect in the Carolina League. my bad on cassel. keeping my fingers crossed for harrell but these injury problems've been tough the past couple years. poreda was absolutely eligible. they list guys in multiple leagues when it suits them. poreda even pitched more innings in AA than hi-A IIRC.

i think it's just a matter of our lacking high-ceiling talent, scenario. yeah, clayton richard had a great season and looks like a major-leaguer. justin cassel might be too. but they're both 25 and get by on fringy stuff, so they're less likely to turn into stars. and these types of lists weigh potential star power real heavily. it ain't like we got no talent at birmingham. some of our guys who missed the list are almost certain to be useful MLBers while of course some of the guys on the list will bust completely. but the talented guys we do have in AA seem far less likely to turn into impact guys. when your ceiling is "solid regular" or "#4 SP," it's tough to justify placing you ahead of "future all star" when ranking prospects. all that said, i don't see how aaron poreda doesn't make this list. even considering park effects, poreda's younger than james mcdonald, wade davis, and jacob mcgee, and he's got comparable (or better) numbers. mcgee even had tommy john i think! and by all accounts poreda's stuff backs up the performance and his secondary stuff did develop some. weird.

QUOTE (scenario @ Sep 26, 2008 -> 02:38 PM) Hmmm.... I have a hard time imagining Shelby wouldn't be included in the Carolina League list. I've seen several comments from Carolina League managers where he was called the most exciting offensive player in the league... a very fast player with power. Picture a 5'10 guy 180lb. guy who led the league in slugging percentage over some other MLB teams best prospects... and stole 33 bases. A few more stats showing where Shelby ranked in the Carolina League: 1st in slugging percentage (.510) 2nd in doubles (37) 3rd in total bases (228) 3rd in stolen bases (33) 4th in triples (7) 5th in OPS (.841) 5th in runs scored (81) 6th in league batting average (.295) 6th in RBIs (80) he ain't included. the official list: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prosp...008/266931.html i'd imagine the omission had to do with his crappy plate discipline. nearly a 1:5 bb/k and pretty bad OBP. if he was a bit younger maybe they'd overlook it. he ain't old for the league (age-22 season), but he ain't extremely young either.

QUOTE (winninguglyin83 @ Sep 25, 2008 -> 11:06 PM) Who are the four? Shelby? Poreda? Allen? this is secondhand, but the rankings i saw were poreda (6), allen (14), ely (17), and texeira (19).

QUOTE (scenario @ Sep 25, 2008 -> 05:00 PM) No it isn't. We had a group of players in rookie ball last year that completely skipped Kannapolis this year and went to Winston-Salem instead... and helped lead W-S to the playoffs. (the second year in a row that this core group of players went to the playoffs in their respective leagues). Is that a sign of sub-par scouting? Also, Anthony Carter probably would have made this list if he hadn't been promoted at mid-season. He was tearing up the Sally. Charlie Shirek probably would be on here too if he hadn't spent some time on the DL this year. I think we had several other talented players at Kanny this year who just didn't play there long enough to qualify for this list. So don't read too much into it. I am impressed with the Braves ability to keep loading the pipeline though. The reason they had so many talented players in low-A all year is because they were loaded in high-A and AA too. Their Carolina League team lost in the finals this year, but they were the best team in the league. Their AA team won the title in the Southern League. Can't help but be impressed by that type of depth and success. supposedly, according to the print edition of BA, we have four prospects on the carolina league's top 20 list. (btw, we supposedly have none on the southern league's, not even poreda.)

i had DFW for two semesters at ISU. he was an outstanding teacher. dude cared a ton, and in his position he didn't have to at all. even funnier in real life than in his writing too. i was sad as hell to hear about this.

QUOTE (scenario @ Aug 22, 2008 -> 05:20 AM) Like... who? i dunno man. paiml. retherford. kendall and greene at bristol. think i've seen someone talk about how lucky we are to be stacked with talent like mollenhauer in our middle infield. i mean, peeps enjoy the minors in different ways so it's all good talking about these types of guys. they've just gotten more attention than i'd expect.

QUOTE (scenario @ Aug 22, 2008 -> 03:30 AM) Oh come on... He just got promoted to AAA after the first half of the minor league season ended. Then at Charlotte he's had a phenomenal June... a bad July... and a good August. At Birmingham, he KILLED the ball. (no charlotte park factors involved): .313 BA; .467 OBP; .577 SLG; 1.044 OPS Stats in 2007 (most of the year in W-S and a short year-ending stint at Birmingham): .282; .388; .531; .919 So, the track record is positive... and regarding his age... he is younger than Jerry Owens. cook's got a chance to make it as a 4th OF. i've read scouts comparing him to warren newson, so at least someone who gets paid to evaluate prospects thinks he might have a big-league career. but he hardly seems worth arguing about. seems to be a lotta love on the board lately for oldish fringe guys who have very little chance to make it and almost no chance to be MLB regulars. i guess maybe it's just a product of us having so few potential impact guys in the system.