Reddy

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 06:45 PM) Who programs the computers? IBM?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 06:41 PM) How is the advanced defense determined if no one actually is looking? computers and ball trajectories.

Here DA, take a gander: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-...-test-disagree/

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 06:30 PM) Isn't the eye test used for some of these unbiased numbers? I think your statement will even make eminor cringe. No, actually.

QUOTE (lvjeremylv @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 06:25 PM) The guy got SHELLED almost every time I suffered through watching him try to pitch. He really, really, really sucked badly, and if you're going to bring in some geek new age "stats" to try to convince anyone that he was "unlucky" instead of downright F'ing awful, you're wasting your time. He sucked. So bad. And there's no arguing it. 3rd most valuable pitcher LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You're right. Your opinion is most certainly more accurate than unbiased statistics. Are you familiar with BABIP?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 06:07 PM) That's where the "eye test" and studying game after game of video comes in... Looking at positioning, how many of the "unlucky" hits are liners versus infield singles, etc. The fact of the matter is that no matter how unlucky you supposedly are, eventually your manager has no choice but to pull the plug when your teammates lose confidence in you. I don't think we've ever seen a post-game press conference after the 3rd blown save in a week where the manager trotted out FIP numbers or VORP as a defense, because it sounds like an excuse or rationalization for not getting the job done, not bowing your necking/cinching it up and hunkering down (insert other Will To Win Hawkisms here). At least, it hasn't happened yet. Maybe in front offices...but not coming from the actual coaching staff. All of the above will eventually happen. It takes time for the game to adjust. The eye test has been proven to mean nothing.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 06:08 PM) Sorry, he was very bad. You can throw various stats at me all you want, the guy sucked. Yep. He did. But it's because he was unlucky, not because he's a bad pitcher. He'll probably be much better this year.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 06:14 PM) I'll believe it when I see Alex Gordon and Jason Heyward get $100+ million free agent contracts coming off merely "decent" (775ish OPS) offensive years. It's one thing to overweight defense...or exploit seeming oversights (first it was OBP, then outfield defense....now it's bullpen construction and shifts). It's quite another to build an organizational philosophy around it. At any rate, we shall see. .775 OPS is significantly above average these days. .700 is AVERAGE major league player. Add defense into the mix and those are two very valuable guys.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 06:03 PM) When John Danks gives up 6 runs in an inning, I never see anyone mention how unlucky he was. Because he, statistically, has been bad. Not just unlucky. They are two distinctly different things.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 05:49 PM) I don't care what you and DA are arguing about, but if WAR says Belisario was merely unlucky than its flaws are worse than I thought. Belisario was incredibly terrible last season, not unlucky Sorry, it was a 1 WARP according to BP. He had a 3.57 FIP and a 9.1 VORP, making him our third most valuable pitcher last season. He had a .339 BABIP. He was unlucky.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 05:45 PM) If it is better, it is not 7000 strikeouts better.that is about approach, strikeouts don't have the same stigma they used to have, but it will come back. BABIP is around the same as it has always been as well. Sigh. Strikeouts don't have the stigma, because it turns out they're not as bad as the uninformed players and coaches of yesteryear thought they were! Adam Dunn would not have BEEN Adam Dunn if he'd focused on cutting down the strikeouts. If he had, he probably wouldn't have walked or homered as much. So yes, that plays a role. Of course it does. But combine that with the best pitching the game has ever seen, and that'll account for the entire uptick in strikeouts. Again, it's really all about statistics. Statistically, Adam Dunn is a much more valuable player than he would've been considered in the 80s. And that's a good thing. That's called progress.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 05:36 PM) You can't prove your Baylor statement. He played 19 years and struck out more than 76 times twice, when he was 37 or 38. If he used the same approach, his k rate wouldn't rise drastically, if at all. And using velocity as proof pitching is better than ever. Cleto, Belisario, Lindstrom. Check out the gun when they pitch. Belisario was almost a 2 WAR pitcher last year FYI. He got incredibly unlucky.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 05:36 PM) You can't prove your Baylor statement. He played 19 years and struck out more than 76 times twice, when he was 37 or 38. And using velocity as proof pitching is better than ever. Cleto, Belisario, Lindstrom. Check out the gun when they pitch. did you even bother to read my multiple long posts with detailed statistics showing you that pitching today is better than it was 10 years ago? If you did even an iota of research you'd see you're dead wrong about this.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 05:30 PM) He is 65, You know exactly what I mean, and choose to deflect because you can't back up your argument. /game,set,match

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 05:25 PM) LOL. Watch a game from the 80s. Watch a game in 2015. Look at what batters do with 2 strikes. Google what former players have to say about striking out. Don Baylor was pissed he got to 50 during his MVP year. He has been a MLB manager and hitting coach. He said the approach is totally different. That is proof if you don't want to believe what you see. Don Baylor would strike out 100 times or more in 2015 if he were playing today.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 05:21 PM) Unless we're to believe 80-85% of the steroid usage was among power hitters and that they don't give pitchers as much of an advantage. Or the ball has been changed physically again. what idea is this in response to? Babe Ruth would blow facing today's pitchers.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 05:04 PM) If strikeouts were all about velocity, I would agree, but that is not the case. Approach is what is causing the crazy increase in strikeouts. Proof? I gave you statistical proof that pitchers are better now than they've ever been. BEYOND strikeouts. And yet, you don't think those strikeouts are a bi-product of the best pitching the game has ever seen. Instead you think it's because of....... what? Coaching? Kids who "don't care if they strike out"? Where is your statistical proof? Because I gave you statistical proof that - beyond just strikeouts - hitters are not putting up anywhere NEAR the numbers they did even 10 years ago across the board. ETA: there's a distinction by the way. HITTERS are the best they've ever been, as are pitchers. But HITTING is down compared to 10 years ago, because PITCHING is better comparatively.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 04:44 PM) The ASMI came out with a statement last year basically blaming the rash of elbow injuries on max effort trying to light up guns. This just doesn't hpeen in major league parks obviously, but the scrutiny that occurs when a potcher's reading drop 1 or 2 miles an hour does give credence to the belief the number being out there for everyone to see most likely increases thr likelihoood of injury. Well. Yeah. But that same effort to throw harder is what's ALSO contributing to the rise in strikeouts. Pitchers are better and throw harder. Because of that they also get hurt more often, BUT the advances in medicine allow those same pitchers to come back into the game, when in the past, TJ would end their career. Thus, pitching now is better than its ever been ever in the entire history of major league baseball the end.

QUOTE (Douglas Rome @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 04:26 PM) I have only been a member here a month, and it's been a rocky road. I suspect I'm a little too far to the right of most members of this board, nothing I can say will change that. You all will have to put up with an uneducated bigot and a loudmouth, i hope i can still visit here if my posting privileges are revoked. ................. thanks, douglas The Right. Being proud of their uneducated bigotry since 1980.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 04:21 PM) It's partially because of the proliferation of in-stadium radar gun readings being shown on the board. And yes, there are some stadiums with those particular pitchers (like Aroldis Chapman) where they do crank it up enough to get their guys over the top more consistently...along with the "video game" industry evolving graphics and pitch effects-wise and there's the whole marketing/excitement angle for fans. Once 100 becomes a sort of routine...then a substitute will have to replace it as the marginal utility of throwing that high is career-risk/arm and shoulder surgeries. Of course, the biggest factor is the fact that starters no longer are rewarded for complete games, it's pretty much discouraged from the minor league level on up. Just like closers tire now in their second inning of work (or certainly second time through the line-up), there's a number of pitchers who are fine-tuned to just go 5-6 innings at max effort and then turn the game over the pens. Can we objectively say that pitching has become better? Or is it more that with specialization and huge contracts for even set-up guys (think of loogies that hang on seemingly forever) that the quality of relief pitching has simply gone up by 25-50% in the last decade or so? Is there any way to chart average bullpen ERA's over the decades versus ERA's from starters? I think you'll also find that with more offensive parity, there are fewer blowout games where the "long mans" of the world like Dylan Axelrod/Rienzo/Jamie Carroll have to put up significant innings than previously. Do you ha e literally ANY proof about the radar gun theory?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 03:23 PM) Why wouldn't that mean the quality of hitter is better? 7000 more whiffs in 2014 than 2005. That is 35 2014 Chris Sales. Why are you ignoring my statistics?

QUOTE (Brian @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 01:27 PM) Yikes. I'd ask for examples but I don't want to start anything It's so much fun, though!

QUOTE (lvjeremylv @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 01:27 PM) Lol, they did? Do you mean there was a 33% increase? Since 2012, 54 pitchers have undergone TJ surgery. All of the pitchers in the Tigers bullpen have had it. I was pulling that stat from memory, so it was a bit inflated, but not by much. ETA 25 in 2014 alone.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 11:53 AM) Green? Sarcasm? I'm guessing. Regardless, the A's didn't have a single 800 OPS on their playoff roster. They were counting on the pitching to be perfect - and the playoffs are a crapshoot anyway. Had they held on against the Royals, who knows? I'm a firm believer than winning trumps style of play, from a fans' standpoint, but there will be rule tweaks coming soon, that are at least designed to raise scoring. May even see an NL DH. Haha no! Not sarcasm! Legitimately a great point. I'm not allllways snarky.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Feb 8, 2015 -> 11:34 AM) Guys, please lighten up on Douglas, thanks. Really don't want to lose the treasure trove of humor he can provide, thanks. Missing Marty, and he's the closest facsimile, thanks.