Reddy

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 03:51 PM) Baltimore outperformed their projection by 21 games. Boston underperformed theirs by 18. 39 games difference. They are fine conversion and argument starters, but the reality is, things happen. Players get hurt. Some suck, some are great who have no business being great. Projecting wins in January is silly. sigh. you're wrong but you won't be convinced, so there's really no point arguing it. you're the Hawk of projection systems.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 03:15 PM) If they beat them by 7 games and everyone else just matches theirs, the Sox win the division by 3 games. The Royals were projected to win 79 games in 2014. Projections are projections. They are fun to argue about, but in the end, mean nothing. They don't mean *nothing* or they wouldn't exist. And BP wouldn't have the reputation it does. The reason White Sox fans feel like you do, is because the Sox consistently over perform their PECOTA, but the reason for that is Cooper and Schneider. We've had the least DL days in baseball for the last 15 years. That's what allows us to outperform the projections. Other teams don't have that.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 02:32 PM) What shortstop for them had a 2.4 war. Ruben tejada had a 1.3 war and wilmer flores had a .2 war according to baseball reference. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tejadru01.shtml http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/florewi01.shtml Sorry that's the projection from the typically conservative BP. My mistake. Projected to be better than Alexei. Of course it doesn't mean anything yet, but he's much younger and a tenth of Alexei's price.

It's easy to disagree with PECOTA Sox projections - the sox beat them almost every year, sometimes by double digits. On average the sox beat the projection by 7 wins per season, putting us at 85, which is great, but just short of the playoffs unless everything hits our way on the luck front.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 01:27 PM) I wonder if Alexei could still be available to a team like the Mets, who have a real need for SS. With Syndergaard in the wings, they could move a starter. But it would probably be Gee who's a 3 at best, imo. I don't understand. Their shortstop had a 2.4 WAR last year. It's not a weakness for them. Their SS is as good as Alexei for waaaaay less money.

QUOTE (LDF @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 01:18 PM) yes and the way the Fa's rt is going, i can see a need for a great farm. the problem is the uncertainty of there performance just removed from minor league and facing major league pitching. i would rather have them spend some time as a backup role in the majors. this team does not have that luxury, they had to rush players into a position of failure. rush a player who is not ready, b/c the team was really thin that is not how you develop major league regulars.

Washington's long man right now is Tanner freaking Roark. THAT'S a surefire postseason team. Their entire starting 5 could have sub-3 eras. Probably won't, but they could.

Shields is bad. Do not want.

QUOTE (LDF @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:58 PM) did i say trade all the prospects??? i said if that final piece is needed and they might have to sacrifice an Adams, i said go for it. the payment coming back will be worth. cost of diminishing return. if the price is needed, do it and possible ensure a trip to the playoff and maybe more. so if that is the final piece, would you not spend, just b/c you want to save the prospect?? This team is not "one final piece" away. We have a few holes we could still use filled. That said, I'm very happy where the team is at compared to a couple months ago.

QUOTE (LDF @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:47 PM) you continue to let Hahn continue to develop the minors. we are fans we do not have all the resource that we can make those smart decision. but we are smart enuf to know that the sox are not done or should be done in the rebuild. btw, getting to the world series, is good enuf, it is not the best wish, but it beats not making the playoff when the sox have great pieces to get the team there. how do you develop the minors if you have to trade prospects to get your "extra" pieces?

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 27, 2015 -> 04:40 PM) On my 16th birthday, the Sox will face the Twins at home at 1 PM. Chris Sale will throw a perfect game. Jose Abreu will hit 6 grand slams. aw

QUOTE (LDF @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:32 PM) i am and have been a diehard sox fan. more that the normal, no, less than the normal, no. but this does not stop me from wanting the sox to do that little extra, to get that extra player. unrealistic, yeah if i want a team of a payroll greater than 150 mil. all this yrs, esp last yr, the owner rep has stated no money. the fans are not supporting the team. well with the economy being what it is, do anyone blame the fans, the diehard fans?? well we found out that the money claim is all false. a blatant lie and deceit. but this is not the point here. the point for this discussion is the art of patience. we as fans been as patient as any, but as some one said, would you spend, example of prospect Adams, let me put it this way. if a person cut him self, develop an infection and has no choice but to remove the limb or loosing their life. they will remove the limb. well the answer is yes, i would sacrifice loosing Adams, if the reward, may lead to a World Series attendance. i trust Hahn to do the right maneuvering to oversee the system. now it is not in the hands of Hahn, he answer to KW and the final work is the owner's rep. so remember this is the person who tried to embellish the situation. the fans will come out in groves, they don't need to be blackmail, put the product on the field, do and go that extra for winning the WS. this is a great time, the Sox can take over the Chi media in the summer, if they would do that little extra. So what happens if you "go that extra" and then you don't win the world series?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:35 PM) Hahn had money to play with this year. For him to have money to play with next year = a major playoff run this year or getting rid of Alexei or Samardzija or someone else like that, leaving a hole in their place. Believe me, I'm in the camp that Shark is overpriced and overrated, so moving him at the deadline to get a decent prospect or two wouldn't upset me, and if we don't resign him and use the money on someone else, great. But if we DO resign him, with Hahn at the helm, we're not going to resign him at the expense of our competitiveness. That just doesn't seem like Hahn's MO. Question though, you don't think we should dump Alexei for Anderson, but who will fill Shark's shoes? You truly feel like '15 is our only chance at competitiveness? What if we let both of them walk in '16 and go out and spend all that money, while Rodon and one of our other young pitchers move up and take Danks and Noesi's spots? That gives us a lot of flexibility, and a lot of room to build a solid team.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:34 PM) 3rd pick in the draft, #1 in the eyes of many. Mature college arm. Yes, I'm expecting a lot. but THIS year??

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:32 PM) This is an argument for why the White Sox won't be competitive either of those years, not an argument for why they'll be in shape to compete in 2016 even if they miss in 2015. Honestly, projecting 2016 - based on what Hahn did this year - seems close to impossible. Haha

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:32 PM) Or we can start to be optimistic that some of our prospects like Anderson and Hawkins will make an impact. Especially our young pitching prospects. Their development saves a LOT of money (see Sale/Quintana). Let's not forget, Danks eventually will be off the books, too. The worst-case scenario is we're muddling around .500 at the All-Star break and get something nice back for Samardzija. The reality is that nobody should be running away with the AL Central this year, and the Tigers and Royals have taken a step back to the field, if not two steps. I don't even expect the Royals to finish higher than 3rd to be honest. They got all sorts of lucky last year.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:28 PM) And Tim Anderson as an incredibly raw rookie is ready to replace >3 WAR in 2016 why? It's one way to do it, but its also a move for 2017. Tim Anderson is a guy we should expect to take several years to turn into a really good player if he reaches the bigs by 2016. Alexei is just as likely to put up a 1.5 WAR as he is a 3 WAR. And he's only getting older.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:27 PM) It doesn't. You subtract Ramirez's money (putting you around $105 million) and you still have $20-25 million to play with. That money shouldn't go to an overpriced 3rd starter...for the same reason $90 million hasn't gone to James Shields yet. HOWEVER, if Shark proves himself to be a 2 or better, then it starts to become more justifiable based on the lesser wear and tear on his arm. Of course, a LOT is also dependent on what happens with Noesi/Danks and then the development of Rodon/Montas/Danish/Beck and Adams might very well be a fast mover as well. paying the money for Shark is worth it if Rodon and one of our other young guys pan out.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:24 PM) You have a lot of young players growing up in that time, plus the addition of the top prospects at various points. take Alexei off the books, add Shark, and he becomes much more "affordable"

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:23 PM) Not guaranteed, what is?, but also likely, imo. Rodon was walking 6 guys per 9 innings at AAA to end the season. Striking out 14, yes, but that sounds a lot like Daniel Cabrera. I'm excited about Rodon, I really am, but to expect everyone we draft to be Chris Sale is... you know...

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:20 PM) Guys, we're likely, imo, to get at least 100 big league innings from Rodon this season. That's 1/4 of the Danks/Noesi load eliminated. Hahn will act quickly if they both suck early and often. 100 innings out of Rodon aren't guaranteed to be better than Danks and Noesi either...

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 11:23 AM) There's been a lot of "why didn't we go get the final couple pieces?" and "prospects are just prospects are bust rate Mitchell ahead of Trout blah blah" lately, and I think that both types of complaints are short-sighted; they don't take the RH master plan or the current competitive state of the MLB into perspective. I think they represent obsolete lines of thought that describe the environment ten or so years ago but are not relevant or useful in the climate today. But I haven't been able to communicate my argument very well, partially because I'm not sure I even UNDERSTOOD my argument very well. But with yesterday's release of Keith Law's system rankings, I think it all finally makes sense in a concrete way. Let me ask you this: When was the last time the Sox went into the season billed as a legitimate playoff contender AND had a top-half ranked farm system? THIS is what it's supposed to look like. This is the "sustainable competitiveness" model in its infancy. It doesn't matter if you think Law is too high or too low on the system or Sullivan is too low on the Sox 2015 chances, the point is that they are in the running and somehow still on the upswing, both in terms of the ML roster AND the farm system. This team has flaws, and we should admit it. If the team doesn't meet our expectations, I think it will be due to some combination of our lack of depth being exposed and the fact that we always assume that our superstars will never regress from exceptional performances for some reason. But there's no question that the team is a "contender." And unlike the previous KW-branded regime, it came without the cost of ruining the future. So next time you feel like JR is stingy or that RH values prospects too much, look how far RH has taken this ship in just two years, and look how much brighter things look from ALL angles than they have since October of 2005. It's about balance and patience. It'll probably mean we will always be able to find holes in our team and always wish they would have spent $20m more, but if they can avoid tipping the scales too much in either direction (present or future), we can look forward to going into every season with justified hopes for the playoffs. totally agree with everything you say. I don't expect a playoff spot, so that's why I keep saying "competitive" instead of "contender", but if they do, I agree that we're set up very well for a 3 or 5 or 7 game series.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:12 PM) I wouldn't be shocked if the Sox have a great bullpen, I also wouldn't be surprised if their pen is completely underwhelming outside of Robertson. If the bullpen is great we easily could have one of the best pitching staffs in baseball so who knows. but that's the point. if it isn't, then we're really screwed. people are saying that 90 wins is EXPECTED. and it's definitely not expected if the defense, rotation, bullpen, and 3 spots in the lineup are question marks!

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 12:08 PM) Nor is a 4.25 ERA. More than likely they'll both be somewhere around 1 WAR pitchers, below average but not absolutely killing you. That's also not including the possibility of calling up guys like Beck or Rodon (or perhaps even Montas). I'll admit I'm really excited about Rodon.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jan 29, 2015 -> 11:40 AM) I like the Sox pitching staff to be the best in the league. If they stay healthy, 90 wins. Bold prediction: Sox score more than 700 runs, and give up fewer than 600 runs. Run diff will be more than +100. I want some of what you're smoking. Both in how many runs we score and how many runs we allow. A 5 ERA out of Danks and Noesi is not completely unlikely.