Soxbadger

Not to mention Machado's camp ignored the the Sox scientific presentation of how San Diego will be in the sea in 5 years.

But the sox offered a trillion in unreachable incentives.

There are 2 good things about this (they arent that great but hey, this is my 1 optimistic post) 1) The Sox front office got valuable experience in negotiating for a premier talent. This will hopefully help them in the future. Instead of hemming and hawing for discounts, they get the deal done when they cane. 2) I hope its the end of the influx of "insiders." All of us outsiders may as well just speculate based on fact, reason and evidence. Because it turned out way more accurate than any insider was.

Because WSD doesnt know as much as he thinks he does. But hey, hes got all those inside sauces. Remember when insiders were a thing on Soxtalk? And they told all of us who had been here forever how much their sauces knew. In the end, my no sauces takes were right. Go figure.

People are arguing against your comment that Machado is a dumbass for taking $50mil guaranteed over the maybe $70mil that was entirely out of his hands. Your counter argument was, JR, an 82 year old man, would make sure he is taken care of 8 years from now. Im sorry, $50mil guaranteed is worth more than that. If JR would make sure he was going to take care of Machado, why not give him 2 years $50mil more and be done with it?

Jerry is 82. Youre bettting $50mil on an 82 year old being loyal 8 years from now. Id rip any agent who did that.

Do you think Jerry is going to be around in 8 years? Hes 82. The guy was cheap over years he likely is never even going to see. $25mil in 9 years is going to be worth much less than it is today. The Sox spent that much money on random guys this offseason. They were too cheap to get a premiere player over maybe payroll worries in a decade. Its inexcusable. Especially when you think about how much money theyve been making with a really low payroll.

Yep. The vesting structure was a screw job.

As an agent you cant take that deal. Those incentives are entirely out of his control. In year 8 if he misses a few weeks to injury, he potentially loses $70mil.

If that offer is true, than the Sox are probably besides themselves for missing out. One of my early concerns about this was that the Sox didnt really have anyone who had ever negotiated a deal like this before. Im too lazy to look, but has Hahn even negotiated a contract for $100mil? The way that the Sox missed is even worse than not being involved in the first place. They were $50mil short over 2 years. Its not idea to pay Machado $25 mil 9-10 years from now, but thats a 9 years from now problem. For a long time I was saying 8 years 280. 10 years $300mil is actually a lower AAV. They could have easily front loaded the deal so those last years were lower and beat the Padres. But instead we are worrying about a decade from now. Frustrating.

Being at the game when the Sox lost to Blue Jays in the playoffs was a lot worse.

Nah Im going to keep posting. Why so serious?

I have 0 doubt in my mind that it wasnt until Machado started slipping away that the Sox became more aggressive. I have little doubt in my mind that in early January the Sox could have gotten a fair deal done and signed Machado. Just such a predictable ending.

I was going to predict the difference was the extra 2 years guaranteed.

The part I dont get is, how can you offer $25 mil a year, but somehow $30mil a year makes it impossible to put together a winning roster? Its $5mil per year. Its a disgrace and the negotiation was a disgrace. Ive got no sauces or insiders, but if they were around $280 in January they could have likely pushed it across before the Padres even got involved. But chalk one up for, dont bid against yourselves! Even that narrative is stupid as hell. If $300mil was the magic number, Sox could have hit that and gotten him for $300. Instead even if they outbid the Padres, they would have paid in excess of $300mil. Im waiting on some insiders to tell me not to worry.

I disagree. I think had the Sox been serious in January about "stepping up" they likely get Machado before the Padres are involved. This is amateur hour.

Im not sure how in early January people didnt understand this was the natural conclusion. Somehow people thought that an elite talent was going to just fall into the Sox laps for a bargain price. I wish I could pull up every post where people said "dont bid against yourself" or how the Sox should "lower their offer". Its amateur hour. Im pretty sure Hahn has never negotiated a $100mil contract, so he was completely out of his depth. I hope i never hear "insider" on this forum again.

I remember when all of the insiders told me how I was wrong about this entire thing. I remember when they kept saying it was stupid to negotiate against yourself, etc. Turns out, this is why you get deals done when you have momentum. I didnt need to be an insider to understand contract negotiation.

It works on my screen, lol.

$30mil isnt true. CA: 12.3% IL: 4.95% = 7.35% on 50% of games. If Manny Makes $300mil. Half of that is $150mil. $150mil x 7.35% = $11mil. So even if you round up, its more like $15mil over the life of the contract.

Kaepernick and Reid settle. Terms are confidential.

Yep your taxed on where the games are played. So games in NY, NY tax etc. Its still higher in CA, and the easier baseline is 50% of salary would be paid at a higher rate. So on $30mil, $15mil is at the higher rate.

I was speaking generally about what are the "ills" of student loans. If youre going to say something is a bad return on investment, then we are talking money. And then we disagree. I think that making sure everyone has access to higher education is extremely important, and one of the most valuable things for our country to invest in.

Now Im confused. I thought the bad thing about student loans is that the govt is making money (interest) off the backs of the poor students. So is it (a) student loans are bad because the govt is greedy and making money or is it (b) student loans are bad because the govt is losing money and therefore tax payers are on the hook to pay for them. Because if the govt is making money, then isnt it a good ROI on my tax dollars? In general though tax dollars go to plenty of things that i dont think are worthwhile. I bet there are a good trillion dollars of things Id cut before I start denying people the right to pick their own education.

I just think that people should have the freedom to pick what degree that they want, and that they should have to live with the outcome of that. Its not our job as a society to babysit them. That being said, I also dont think most 18 year olds know their major or have a real college plan. Many people switch majors in college. I think that a lot of people default to things like poli sci, because they may not be able to make it in a harder major. Its not really straightforward. You could argue that if your not at a certain level in HS, maybe you shouldnt even be wasting your money on college. But that presupposes that no one can change, that no one can get better. Or on the other hand, no one can get worse. I dont really have a lot of experience with those decisions, so I am not about to tell other people what to do. I lived in a world where college was an expectation not a choice.