Y2HH

QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 02:40 PM) I have experience with the VA. My friends father just had elbow surgery last year through VA. He's now playing tennis. The VA is awesome.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 02:29 PM) And we all seem to agree that this 1300 page behemoth is probably a bad idea, but then you still somehow have to throw in a jab at a poll, which by the way isn't even addressing the bill itself. Fair enough, I retract my poll jab.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 02:24 PM) That is what we call a "hasty generalization," which is a logical fallacy. You're taking a very small subset that can come under a lot of confirmation bias and generalizing it to a nationwide system with millions of people. That's why arguments via anecdotes don't work. I won't claim to be without bias when it comes to this entire subject -- from what I know of the VA, first hand, combined with working in the private insurance sector, you could see where my bias would lie. That said, even I know something has to be done with the state of this countries healthcare -- and I have the BEST healthcare plan you can get. But I also recognize that this 1300+ page behemoth of a bill isn't the answer no matter what polls say.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 02:22 PM) The only evidence so far is your one familial story. Which is not invalid, by the way, it does carry water. But for you to take that one story as gospel, and 100% fully dismiss not only this very large-scale poll but ALL polls, is just silly. You have made it impossible to have a discussion with you on this topic, since you have laid waste the very idea of any data other than your family being valid. It wasn't just my story -- someone else, I think it was southsider, has a similar story. So as it stands, the ONLY two people with ACTUAL experience with the VA around here say it sucks... So of the two people polled on Soxtalk with actual VA experience...100% of them say it sucks.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 02:21 PM) ...because of anecdotes. Yes, because of my anecdotal first hand experience with the VA, I think it sucks. I don't need a poll to know what I saw, to know how things were handled.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 02:19 PM) Polls=unreliable, easily manipulated, victims of bias Anecdotes=airtight proof of a prior conclusions I didn't say that, either. I did say that VA/Medicare system is not very good -- regardless of what that poll showed. Feel free to attack me on that -- I stand firm on it...without poll evidence.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 02:16 PM) Assertions without supporting data don't mean much. edit: and anecdotes aren't supporting data. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anecdotal_evi...nd_faulty_logic So you need a poll that must not have questioned all of the veterans throughout the US that say how sucktastic the VA system is in order to be taken as fact?

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 02:16 PM) Assertions without supporting data don't mean much. I did support my assertion that the VA sucks...and it was dismissed. I can see you didn't even read it. My point prooven.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 02:14 PM) I find it insulting when people hand-wave away anything they don't like. The VA is NOT run well, regardless of what what "poll" says. That's all I have to say. I posted numerous stories of the horror that is the VA system, in the reality of how it ACTUALLY works, not in how some "poll" showed it worked...but that was ignored. I guess I need to find a "poll" showing how sucktastic is actually is, than maybe you will believe me!

QUOTE (lostfan @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 02:11 PM) Holy strawman. No one is belittling you, only the validity of your arguments. You're not a thin-skinned guy, why do this? Because it gets old to question things, and when you have questions around here people do nothing but try to show you why you shouldn't have questions and you should just believe stuff because it's on the internet, or in a poll, or written in some journal. I don't take things for fact so easily, and I find it insulting when people question why.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 02:09 PM) Hey sarah palin what's up I assume that was an attempt to belittle me? Again. I truly feel that what I said it true...asking questions in this era has become a bad thing. Look, I'm sorry I don't agree that polls are accurate -- even if you do -- you haven't convinced me they are, either. I question them. I question everything. I will continue to question everything...it's what makes me who I am. You -- you're whoever "they" want you to be, apparantly. "They" even got you to use Sarah Palin as an insult. Way to go. You used a persons name to belittle another person. You're a wonderful representation of SoxTalk.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 02:06 PM) oh my god. how many examples do you have of a polling agency who took a poll - Published the full poll as all are, with what questions were asked, demographics polled, time of day, answers, non answers, hang ups, etc. - but all of this data was lies. Instead of asking "do you approve of this bill" they actually asked "this bill will kill you and all your loved ones, will you vote for it?". How many examples are there of this? Rasmussen is famous for their somewhat loaded questions, and they still report the questions. THey still report the demographics polled and reasoning behind it. I apologize, you're right. I'm wrong. I don't know why I questioned it.

I think I agree with Jesse Ventura -- I'm not sure when it happened, but wow...raising questions has become a bad thing, apparently. Even here on Sox Talk. I have questions...so we should jump on Y2HH and try to belittle him so nobody takes him seriously anymore and his opinions and questions no longer hold water. I guess that's just the modern time. I apologize for questioning the validity of polls. I apologize for questioning the governments ability to run health care. I apologize for having questions -- I don't know why I do -- I mean, you guys have all the answers, it seems. I'll just fall in line and listen to everything you say, nod in agreement like a good little lemming, and maybe you'll give me a chocolate chip cookie now and again. I'd rather not.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 02:01 PM) Newspapers publish who did the poll, describe their function and give margin of error. Polling companies give the breakdown of the demographics polled, time of day polled, how they were reached, etc. THis poll didn't come from CNN. CNN and the like do what they specifically say is a non-scientific poll. "We can test that question with data from a set of surveys known as the Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems. CAHPS is an initiative of the Department of Health and Human Services that developed a standardized survey questionnaire used by virtually all health insurance plans -- public and private -- to assess patient satisfaction. Most private insurers use the CAHPS questionnaire and disclose the data to the National Committee for Quality Assurance in order to receive their accreditation. So thanks to CAHPS, we have a massive collection of data comparisons of how patients experience and rate Medicare, Medicaid and private insurance." I'm convinced. All polls are accurate! I work for Blue Cross, I have for years, BTW, and I've never heard of CAHPS. Again...what "private insurers" use this? Funny how that's omitted. I love some of the language in there. Used by *virtually* all. Ok, so not all, but some...but which some...we don't actually say. Meh.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 01:59 PM) This is incorrect. Ask me to take a poll for you -- any poll -- ill even turn in all my collected data. But you can't be there when I collect that data. I bet I can show you whatever I want. How are you going to know what I did to get it? You don't. So no, it's not incorrect unless you assume I follow all of your rules, but reality is, I don't have to do so.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 01:58 PM) Government running a non-profit business against private for-profit and non-profit businesses. How is it so starkly different? Also, if the government plan isn't as good, people will pay more for more value from the private plans. If they can offer comparable value for lower cost w/ no profit, what exactly am I supposed to have a problem with? There in lies a problem. Say the government plan isn't good -- but it takes people 6 months or a year to see that (because they didn't need to go to the hospital/doctor for that long, or even longer), how are the private companies supposed to stay in business in the mean time? Are we pretending that if people went to a public plan the private companies would just wait it out? The reality is, that may happen, but in the mean time, when people go "try the government teet plan", the privates go under, and then there is no private plan for you to return too.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 01:55 PM) Honestly Y2HH what you are claiming right now can be compared to someone saying you can't believe pictures because photoshop exists. No, I'm not. As you can often check for photo manipulations (at least pros can) -- whereas with poll data, you cannot fact check them unless you were standing there with the pollster to see how they collected said data.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 01:53 PM) but because something CAN BE MANIPULATED does not mean it IS. That's why science journals have standards for what they publish, that's why margin of error must be reported, that's why the set of questioning used is documented, that's why who is funding IS FORCED TO BE REPORTED. This would hold some credibility...if all polls were published ONLY in science journals. They aren't. Last I checked CNN or some various newspaper isn't a science journal under the same scrutiny. Nor are a lot of non science related administrations/sections of business/government, etc.

QUOTE (lostfan @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 01:47 PM) lol are you saying polls are completely made up? How was Nate Silver able to predict 49 of 50 states for the 2008 election (missing Indiana by just a couple of points) after adjusting the various models and combining them? No, I'm not saying their all made up -- I am saying that for certain circumstances they can be manipulated for various reasons. There would be no point in manipulating live election data -- as the actual counts will show the truth regardless of what the poll is manipulated to show. However, if you were looking to prove something as "majority", such as a cause you care about on one side or the other, you could manipulate it to show your side/opinion is the majority therefore right. How? Easy. When people exit the Hospital, ask, "Were you treated well?!" If they answer YES, you ask them to take a more extensive poll. However, if they answer NO, you let them walk away...or let 1 in 10 NO's walk away, just so you can show there ARE some on the other side and make the results look more balanced. I did a project in statistics class in college about this very subject -- and we were able to successful manipulate every poll, no matter how basic it was so long as the 'whole' data wasn't able to be collected. However, manipulating something like an election count isn't something you'd care to do, because it can be shown you are wrong. It's not often wise to try to manipulate data from a whole -- as the whole will still come together in the end. But if you can take just a slice of that whole, and represent it as if it were the whole then you can get the results you are looking for. It can be pretty complicated, but I'm sure you understand what I mean.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 01:38 PM) Why aren't all private schools out of business then? Because that's the same thing. This marks my exit from this thread.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 01:32 PM) Which is exactly why the CBO projected numbers for this are garbage. The estimates of only 39,000,000 people in this program by 2019 are a joke. I'd be shocked if it was less than double that number. As soon as taxes are started getting paid for government health care, people are going to view it as another entitlement. Businesses are going to drop cover en masse because it will be cheaper for them in the long run. No one will buy private health care because the government will undercut their pricing. This is the point people seem to miss when it comes to government run programs. Entitlement aside, the fact is, the government is the only entity in the free world that is able to run a business in the red -- it can be in debt, it can over spend and it can make NO money and never be affected. If private health insurance has to compete with an entity that doesn't have to make a profit, they stand no chance. And that's how government insurance would work. If they went over budget -- so what -- tax people -- tax something, anything...doesn't matter. If Blue Cross, for example, doesn't make a profit, they go bankrupt. Big difference.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 01:29 PM) So you would prefer to take the evidence of one person's experience, over that of thousands? Don't get me wrong, I use personal experience stories in decisions too, but that is usually in the absence of scientific data. Depends -- if those thousands were actually anonymous thousands from various random areas -- maybe I'd trust it, but I know how polls tend to work, and that's not it. They tend to try to get their data from crowds that will deliver them the answers they're looking for. It'd be like going to San Francisco and asking 1000 people if gay marriage should be allowed, and then going to po-dunk Arkansas and asking the same question of a 1000 more...I can tell you how those two polls will turn out.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 01:28 PM) Exactly - and a big one too. But this bill at 1300 pages is a different problem (and it is indeed a problem, as there is no way it can be remotely understood to be voted on). I think this is all I'm trying to actually convey here -- I'm not saying something doesn't need to be done...I'm just afraid they're going to push this 1300 page behemoth through, and there is no way this turns out well. This should be something that is drafted cleanly, it should be short and to the point and every loophole closed in easy to read writing...1300 pages...without even having read it, I bet there are 200+ contradictions in that document...that's my big problem here. I'm sure there are parts of medicare/VA that work really well -- key word is parts -- but the entire system they are running in does NOT work. If we can take good idead, mesh the together in a workable way, I'd be all for that. But I don't want people pointing to a system that sucks just because one facet of that system happens to be wonderful, and that's what I've been arguing against with my past few posts. The VA and Medicare are NOT great systems...they may have some good components, but their overall systems are NOT good, so to use them to draft this bill is crazy.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 01:26 PM) I've only occasionally read this thread, so I didn't really ignore anything. Data gathering > anecdotal claims. That doesn't mean that the anecdotes aren't true or that there aren't problems but that anecdotal evidence doesn't extrapolate to a broader level. How is the data skewed? You're just hand-waving away anything you don't agree with. Confirmation bias in full effect. I didn't say Republican either, but it is an incredibly common tactic of conservatives & R's to immediately dismiss any poll with unfavorable results without explaining why the poll is flawed. I dismiss all polls, including ones that happen to take side with what I feel is right because I know how easy they are to manipulate. Good enough?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 28, 2009 -> 01:25 PM) 1. I think I have detected a disconnect here - the VA "system" that was being referred to by Balta and myself and others was not a reference to the hospital facilities and staff, but the way in which that care is managed. The hospitals are a mess, I think you will get no argument there. 2. "so you fail"? That's the best you can do? Well this IS a disconnect. How can you say the care is managed well with the current state of how that care is actually being performed? That makes no sense to me. None. If it was managed well, we wouldn't have these issues.