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BamaDoc

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Posts posted by BamaDoc

  1. 2 minutes ago, caulfield12 said:

    2.4 2.6 and 2.8 along with the 4.5 and 5.0 seasons argue he’s much closer to 3 than 2.   Or, to be more accurate...expected 2-3 fWAR.

    Yeah it is bWAR vs fWar again.  I was looking at his last two years in St Louis where bWARs were 2.2 and 2.1.  I should have said which numbers I saw.  Still would like a deep explanation on the differences of WAR calculations.  With modern analytics I bet many teams do their own calculations now.

  2. Avi has very good hard hit and exit velocities.  Ozuna's bat just doesn't blow me away and the defense seems questionable.  He is about a two WAR player and looks like he is going to cost a lot compared to some alternatives.  We could use a lefty for balance and need to improve OBP.  He had the second highest OBP of his career last year at .328

  3. Ment to add Taijuan Walker as another guy I would try to add as starting depth.  Further back from TJ surgery and should be ready to go.  Might sell our medical program/staff as we should have enough experience with TJ recovery to appear impressive.  If nothing else the management plan we have for the numerous pitchers coming back could show him he wouldn't be abused or over worked.               

  4. Ok, we didn't get Wheeler and you know what, the sun still came up and it is beautiful here in Alabama.  The Nationals lost Harper and won the World Series, not because Harper is bad but because they took that money and spent it well.  So we offered 25 million a year to a pitcher.  So lets play with 25 million in pitching.  We get to other positions later.  Again from my original post, I am not giving up significant prospects in a trade and wanting to avoid qualifying offers as I don't want to go to a contract length that justifies the draft pick lost  for this tier of pitchers.

    Lefty starter, ground balls, I think he would like sticking it to his old club.....  Dallas Keuchle.  I know not sexy but it is what it is.  He could be our 3-4 starter and provide innings.  Three years at 13-15 per with some incentives should get it done.

    Bullpen help.  Concerned that the Yankees have interest but Treinen as a bounce back works.  Supposedly they messed with him wanting higher heat rather than his sinker and some injury issues.  I considered Betances but a big guy with Achilles issues scares me.  I think one year 5 million maybe a option or as a last resort a second year works.

    Early season starter who becomes a piggy back with Kopech when he returns.  Again, we need early season health and dependability.  This guy fits that and as a lefty would contrast lineup/stuff wise with Kopech.  Gio Gonzalez  one year think 3 million and incentives works as he had to do a minor league deal last year yet was 1.7 WAR in 19 starts.

    Look at the tape and if you think you can fix the home run issues which were significant, Yimi Garcia.  Whip of .866.  Again only if you see something you think is fixable.  Should come cheap.  Maybe even minor league contract with spring invite? 

     

    Okay not sexy but that is less than 25 million and answers some of our pitching questions.  Allows real major leaguers to be in the 4-5 pitching spots instead of the trash we had last year.  Lefties help balance things out.  

  5. I do not want to give up any assets on a one year player.  However, I might deal with the Dodgers for Joc if you are allowed to find out what it would take to extend him.  Maybe spread some of the Wheeler allocation that direction.  Anyone know who his agent is?

  6.    6 minutes ago,  BamaDoc said: 

    Offer 6/180 for Strasburg.  7/225 for Cole.  Make it have a time limit if you want.  If nothing else you tried and cause others to up offers and hurt their flexibility.  

    Those offers are way too light based on what Wheeler just landed.

     
    Oh, I am in no way implying those would be winning bids but it might cause other teams to up offers knowing you are in the ballpark.  Make them spend more than they want.  Make it hurt.  Maybe just maybe it takes one of them out on someone like a RF next year.  I'll put something in my "Realistic Offseason Thread" later.  This really shouldn't be that unexpected.  What is a positive is we showed we would spend 25 million on a pitcher.  The Nationals won a world series by reallocating Harpers money into multiple players.  
  7. Back on page one, I mentioned Mets looking to move salary and asked if taking Lowrie at 10 million could help get Nimmo.  Mets looking for a CF so I proposed Engel as part of the deal.  Lowrie had some weird/unknown injury so could be a total waste or bounce back at second base till Madrigal arrives.  If he could play, decent track record and switch hits.  Biggest problem for Familia is he is owed 24 plus million if traded as he has two years left and million a year trade escalators.  Hell if it gets you Nimmo cheap, if Lowrie awful in spring training cut him.

  8. 2 hours ago, BrianAnderson said:

    Another name for thought: Alex Wood. Career era is great and nice ground ball pitcher. Can probably be had on a nice 1 or 2 year deal. Perfect kind of deal for the Sox IMO. Value wise and fit wise I'd almost rather have him. 

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/woodal02.shtml

    Wood hardly pitched last year due to a back injury.  He tried coming back later in the year and was shut down due to a back injury.  He is absolutely no sure thing to be ready at the start of the year when he would be needed most.  Maybe as a #6-7 on a cheap incentive laden contract but I think it would be foolish to count on him and we need some people you can count on to avoid running out the trash that occurred last year.

  9.  My other target........Brett Gardner is still available. I figured with injuries, Yankees would keep him but he is still out there. Maybe waitinguntil after everyone fills rosters post rule five draft?  Still think he would look good   Lefty hitting, good obp, good mentor, affordable stop gap and can help in in center if needed.  

     

  10. He is on the correct side of the platoon but his ops was .505 vs lhp.  Probably presumptuous to say cheaper as he put up 3.3 war but several of these options will be available so supply may exceed demand?

    i see peralta had shoulder surgery so that scares me. Not gonna want to give much for possible damaged goods 

  11. 2 hours ago, BackDoorBreach said:

    So for all the people that want to stop gap RF.

    What is the long term solution there?  The Sox FO apparently thinks the window is open right now.

    Next year Mookie, Springer, Pederson, and Brantley will be available who will all be much more expensive than Castellanos, aside from Brantley.  I don't think you wait and just hope one of our minor league OFs figures it out. 

    I want one of ours to develop. You don't have to have every position totally locked up. We will need others to provide financial flexibility for the future. Retread my starting post on realistic offseason. Grandad can hit 1-6 so the new ref doesn't have as much offensive pressure.  I still want a lefty for balance and still like Gardner but with yanks losing center fielder, he probably stays. Think Calhoun in play. I am not big on a significant trade as most of our assets are at low value. 

  12. Well now that Abreu has been signed my number one expectation hits. 2-3 years and hopefully year three an option and more money than people like was my expectation. By guaranteeing the third year, I am saying that was correct. 

  13. 2 minutes ago, fathom said:

    They’ve always liked Grandal...makes me wonder if Castellanos is next. It’s funny that Hahn mentioned the 4 big needs and then signs someone else to a huge deal.

    This improves OBP, defense, left handedness and DH.  While Hahn didn't specifically say catcher, it checks some boxes.

  14. As I sit and think about pitching options and I am still in favor of no qualifying offers, losing my target of Odorizzi hurts.  It looks like we keep Kopech down to manage innings(regain year also).  Gio, Lopez, Cease are in.  So two likely additions.  I advocated that in my originating this thread post with the second being a swing guy or tradeable as other guys get healthy.  What is clear is they need to be healthy at the start of the season which is why I don't advocate guys like Wood or other injury question marks.  I think we want healthyish, possibly left handed, cheapish, good clubhouse, short term deal etc.  By midseason, this guy can go to the pen as Kopech, Rodon, Dunning or others return.  He could come back if injuries or innings limits are reached.  IE this guy kinda looks like a better Santiago.  I worry re homer prone though his numbers aren't bad and early in the year with cold weather the ball isn't jumping.   In fact his numbers of less than one hr per nine is way better than almost anyone on our team not named Bummer. For cheap what about the unexciting but actually fairly competent #5/swing man Gio Gonzalez.  You are not going to sign a really good player if you are competing with other clubs and that is their role.  Last year he signed for two million and provided 1.7 WAR.

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