BamaDoc
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Posts posted by BamaDoc
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Joc problem is about a .500 OPS vs lhp
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On 11/4/2019 at 4:10 PM, turnin' two said:
Julio Teheran had his option declined by the Braves. He is a guy that isn't a TOR guy, but another guy that would fit into the middle of a rotation. He is younger than Wheeler, and has been a workhorse throughout his career. Overall he has better numbers than Wheeler, though Wheeler has been better the last 2 seasons, Teheran could be another viable candidate for a mid/back rotation guy. Certainly an upgrade over the guys the Sox have had, and will likely be at the budget shopping level comfortable for the Sox.
I was intrigued but not after digging. His average fastball velocity has been dropping each year. Formerly around 93 now 89.9! That doesn't work for many people. His walk rate is rising so it appears he is nibbling with lesser stuff. Unless something is seen mechanically where you think you get velocity back, I would avoid.
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17 hours ago, wegner said:
I wonder why Dallas Keuchel retained his services for this next go around in free agency? Boras certainly did not do him any favors last year. Like you indicated, Boras will make sure the cream of the crop (Cole, Stras, Rendon) get paid. Another agent might be a better option for the lesser free agents.
I recall reading somewhere Boras had a multiyear offer he thought Keuchel should take. Keuchel refused it as it wasn't enough money and it seems he burned himself.
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The worst that happens is he takes the QO, has a monster year and because he no longer has a QO attached and was pissed , he leaves. I'll take a monster year.
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I am worried this year was start of decline. I actually would like to see if his trend continues
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JDM does not opt out! Good Go get Grandal
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24 minutes ago, TheFutureIsNear said:
The odds of Jose just taking and being happy with the $18M QO next year are WAY higher than someone signing Jose to a multi year deal with a QO attached.
I don’t think a reasonable common sense middle ground should be that hard to find with Jose given his very public desire to stay...I’d say 2/28 is more than fair
I realize it is a old school stat but do you expect a guy who leads the league in RBI to take a pay cut? I would very much take the 2/28 as the team but I predict we will be unhappy numerically. Afraid of 2/38-40 with an option
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It is interesting that on Wheeler you are paying premium dollars on future projection. Usually in free agency guys are getting money for past performance. He will be a test case for the analytic evolution applied to free agency.
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58 minutes ago, Perfect Vision said:
It does seem likely that this is happening to some extent.
To me, the most plausible explanation for JDM to wait until the last second to make his opt out decision is that these type of communications between Boras and teams are occurring, so that Boras could be fully confident that he can beat JDM's current deal. There's no other analysis that Boras would be doing now that he couldn't have otherwise done over the last month regarding JDM's likely market, so why wait until Monday afternoon to announce his decision unless he's trying to confirm likely offers.
He very well could be hoping Red Sox sweeten the deal by perhaps dropping injury penalties if nothing else or adding a year or maybe money
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Interesting his #1 is also Grandal.
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Cali, along the same lines, do you expect Milwaukee to lose both Grandal and Moustakas? Obviously, Grandal is my number one target back on page one but you make a compelling argument for Moose. I think it may be hard to sell him on a multi positional role when some teams can offer full time work at one position. If Texas doesn't get Rendon, I could see him there.
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Thanks for finding all the info on Dickerson. Definitely interesting. Three different injuries last year with the season ending one being his foot. Obviously that would really have to be checked out. The Red Sox put all kind of contract parameters around JDM previous injury. Dickerson will be a really interesting contract. He could take a one year gamble contract but everybody looking for a non qualifying offer corner outfielder will be looking at him. I could see him getting a solid multi year deal just as easily. If his foot checks out you have definitely made me want to kick the tires. At 31 next year and injury history, I bet he takes the multi year deal.
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17 hours ago, CaliSoxFanViaSWside said:
Nothing wrong with making money but something is amiss with the Sox IFA agency process. That's the much larger story here.
Completely agree. You could have signed a team of 100k guys for what we gave up in the Jones and Castillo deals. I can understand if they feel spreading the money around on multiple players vs one high dollar player is their philosophy but a philosophy of none is not good. This is compounded if you sign free agents who require giving up draft picks. Maybe one 1.25 million dollar bonus guy would help offset losing a second or third round draft pick but having neither will show up in a farm system in a couple years.
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I could see Fulmer in a change of scenery trade ala Thornton years ago. A worse team may be willing to give him more time. I am trying to think if getting him thru waivers would be easier now than at end of spring. He has talent and pedigree so I expect someone would take a chance so maybe he has some value.
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1 hour ago, Lillian said:
You're right. Pederson is also terrible against LH pitching, and should probably be platooned, as well. I'm sorry, but Gardner just doesn't inspire me, because he doesn't have the power to hit in the heart of the order. I don't trust last year's home run totals, which could be an outlier.
If you get Grandal, Gardner could hit 6-8 in my eyes but what the heck in the playoffs for the Yankees he hit three so I don't think he lack value.
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Josh Reddick, Jay Bruce, Calhoun could all be acquired cheaply and also fit that one year place holder position. I prefer Gardner. I actually don't give up Bummer for one year. With the three batter rule, a lefty without splits should have a lot of value.
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50 minutes ago, Lillian said:
Yes, of course there are some great players, however I was referring specifically to the RF hole, and an effort to fill it with a middle of the order, LH bat.
Lillian, you realize Calhouns OPS vs LHP is over .225 better than Pedersen. If you sign Grandal, he makes sense as a primary catcher, part time DH/1b and can hit middle of the order. Grandal would allow your RF addition to bat lower thus not requiring as much offense(gloves matter). I totally agree with you that I want a LH RF addition. You weren't around when I started this post but read my original post. Gardner makes a lot of sense to me.
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So far everyone is pretty much right on target with the cuts. Probably more interesting when we see the additions.
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I offer 3-60 with option for fourth. 24-20-16 and 16 option. The payment structures gives us an advantage over teams near cap and drops salary when we have to start paying our own.
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Interesting. He was a guy I mentioned as being effected by three batter rule as he has terrible splits. RH batters crush him. Maybe the AL east has lots of lefties.
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2 hours ago, aeichhor said:
You do realize most of yolmer value is going to come defense side. Offense is a below average major leaguer. Ozuna is going to provide over a average major leaguer offensively which yolmer has never sniffed at. Trying to compare the 2 only by war is crazy. Not high on Ozuna but offensively he's much better then yolmer. Sox need to add some major offensive
Completely agree Yolmer's value is being above average defensively and is a below league average bat. I am not sure what you are saying that comparing by WAR is crazy. WAR is supposed to be a comprehensive way of evaluating all parts of a player's game and allowing comparisons even between different positions. I do not understand the exact calculations of WAR and how they differ between sites. I would love for a more analytical person to explain the differences in calculations. Ozuna by OPS+ was 6% and 7% above league average with the bat. His defense has been considered negative. When I see a guy with a little above average bat and poor defense it makes me think of a ok guy not necessarily a difference maker. Would he be an improvement over what we put out there, yes but so would a bunch of people. It is why I prefer Grandal as an addition as he has been about 20% above league average offensively and fits better.
I agree with futureisnear that Yolmer's deficiencies with the bat are enough that I wouldn't want to start him but use him in a utility role. I had only brought him up because by bref WAR he was valued similar to Ozuna. Sorry if that confused things.
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3 hours ago, TheFutureIsNear said:
Hyperbole much? All the way around...Yolmer’s best WAR season wasn’t as good as Ozuna’s worst in the past 4 years.
Also haven’t seen any love for Ozuna at all...just a few, such as myself, that would like to have Ozuna at fair market value for the next 3 years. He would represent an obvious upgrade. He’s a 2.5 WAR OF’er and under 30. If the comp pick keeps teams away and Ozuna can be had for around 3 years 50M it’s a no brainer in my opinion. However, if it takes more than 3 years and over 16/17M I’m not interested.
Perhaps we are looking at different sets of numbers? I was using baseball reference WAR values . In the last five years going oldest to most recent Yolmer had values of .8, -.1, 3.5, 2.6,2.1 Ozuna .5, 2.6, 6.1 great no argument!, 2.9, 2.2. So by these stats , Yolmers best year beats Ozuna 4 out of 5 years(your pick) . Not debating if Ozuna is decent which I think he is , he is just not a great fit and not a difference maker in my opinion. In the last two years, which I think has some relevance as post Miami for Ozuna, the WAR is 4.7 Yolmer to 5.1 for Ozuna.
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I really don't see the love for Ozuna. Bad glove, right handed, one good year three years ago. The last two years have been slightly higher WAR than Yolmer who most don't want to keep at 6 million let alone 16plus.
I consider Cole and Stras top of the rotation starters and would gladly sign them up at market rate. Most the others you either hope they improve or have injury/age issues that I don't consider them TOR starters. My plan calls for an innings eater and a second either swing guy or guy who could be moved at deadline depending on the health/performance of our starters. I think our best bet for a top starter is that one develops from within. Most the other FA, I see as 3s on our staff. 2 of Gio, Cease, or Kopech need to be 2 quality or we are in trouble anyway. (for definition clarification, just because a guy is a #1 on a bad staff doesn't make him a #1. I think there are less than 30 #1 pitchers in baseball. I do believe Astros and Nats each have two and Greinke has been but doubt he maintains going forward but certainly could be wrong)
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At our current position in the rebuild, I don't think you do a qualifying offer player unless it is Cole or Strasburg. I expect Cole to be an Angel or Yankee. I expect the Nats to sweeten Strasburgs deal by some additional money and years especially if they lose Rendon. The fact Stras signed an early extension tells me he likes his situation and is unlikely to move.
A Realistic Offseason
in Pale Hose Talk
Posted
With Colome at around 10 million and Herrera at 8, I am not sure we go beyond a 3-5 million reliever.