ZoomSlowik

Thanks guys. I must be getting old, I'm not remotely close to blacking out.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Apr 8, 2010 -> 10:35 PM) Zoom, one can only hope NU puts it together this year, I think they dont "surprise" teams this year, I think that they flat out run the table on some of the teams in the conference. They are a matchup nightmare. I think their offense will be very good, they were already 33rd in offensive efficiency this year even with only 2.5 guys that were really scoring threats (Crawford didn't always play well, figures for a freshman and he was banged up at the end of the year). Their defense I'm not as sure, they were 169th in defensive efficiency. They just got carved up on numerous occasions, even against Penn State. They really get in trouble with that 1-3-1, if they face teams with guards that are smart enough to not try to drive against it you can carve them up inside and on open 3's after the D collapses. Hopefully the improved length (they'll start 3 guys 6'8" or taller and a 6'5" SG) will allow them to close off some passing lanes and get at least a few more rebounds. They're not going to be able to just out-score teams like MSU, OSU or Illinois (though they've somehow faired well against Purdue of late).

Since everyone else wants to pump up their own teams, I'll go on my own little rant pumping up the Wildcats. On paper, this should be the best NU team ever by a fairly wide margin. Last year was one of their best seasons ever even with Coble missing the entire season. They're way bigger and more talented than normal. Shurna and Coble gives them a versatile forward pairing, Thompson is a solid PG that should thrive as a shooter now that he won't have to carry a large chunk of the offensive load, Crawford has the most raw talent of any player I've seen NU sign, and Mirkovic helps their rebounding up front and thankfully won't have to force shots this year. Heck, NU actually signed a 4-star recruit (at least according to rivals) and he won't start next year. I'm feeling good about them making the tournament, which is usually when something bad happens like T.J. Parker leaving to play in Europe, the Michael Thompson from Duke quiting basketball and Coble hurting his foot. Here's how I'd rank the Big Ten, with spaces for the tiers: 1) MSU 2) Purdue 3) OSU 4) Illinois 5) Northwestern (yes, I'm being a bit of a homer) 6) Minnesota (not sure who the go-to scorer is on that roster) 7) Wisconsin (sorry Badger, I need to see another scorer before I believe) 8) Indiana 9) Penn State 10) Iowa 11) Michigan (I think they're REALLY going to suck without Harris and Sims, unless Smotrycz wins freshman of the year or something)

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Apr 8, 2010 -> 12:18 PM) I think the not comparable is a bit of a stretch. No doubt they got destroyed in Champaign, but the game at OSU was close for the most part, and on a neutral court they went to 2 OT's (which Illinois should have one if they could have executed a simple in bounds play). Better no doubt, but I don't think by THAT much. And that's still WITH Turner, again, a near triple double guaranteed most of the time. I'll take Leuer over Sullinger, but he will be one of the better big men probably. WIth Illinois it's all about playing to potential. I think Richmond will bring a different attitude, I think Head/Bertrand will force the guards to compete at another level all year for playing time, and I think Leonard could be a potential sleeper. We shall see though. Their resumes tell a very different story. There's a reason that one of them was a #2 seed and the other went to the NIT. The game in Columbus was not close, Illinois was not within 10 points after Buford's and-one with 7:54 to go. They won comfortably in two of their three matchups, and execution like we saw in the Big Ten tournament is exactly why you can't necessarily expect greatness from the Ilini. OSU was a far more consistent team. If they weren't adding quite a bit of talent you might have a case that they'd come back down to earth without Turner, but part of the reason that they went 3-3 with him gone is that they had no depth and only one big man, neither of which is the case anymore. Under no circumstances will they be starting someone as marginally useful as PJ Hill, even Aaron Craft would bring better defense and passing. Lauderdale probably won't even start this year, and Thomas and Siebert have far more talent than Madsen and Simmons. I worded that poorly, I was just referring to Sullinger's offensive abilities. JaJuan Johnson will still probably make the biggest overall impact because of his defense, which is why I still had Purdue ahead of OSU. Leuer is fairly comparable on offense, Sullinger will probably be better on the blocks but Leuer has more range. Then again, Sullinger will definitely average more than 5.8 rebounds. You hit the nail on the head with the last part, it's a moot point if Illinois doesn't play better. It again won't be close if the Illini don't show up for multiple games and continues to have poor games from the wings and frontcourt. Davis and Tisdale have to play with more energy and aggression up front, and someone on the perimeter besides McCamey will have to be a consistent scoring threat. Illinois might return all five starters, but in my view they have more question marks than Ohio State. You know what you are going to get from OSU's three solid wing players and Lauderdale, and you're reasonably sure that Sullinger will be a force down low. You're nowhere near as sure what is going to happen on the wings in Champaign, or whether their frontcourt will actually try to attack the rim on a given night. I've got Illinois somewhere in the 13-20 range, so I'm expecting them to close the gap quite a bit, just not quite all the way.

You're glossing over two pretty major things here: -OSU and Illinois weren't remotely comparable this year. The Buckeyes were 7.5 games better overall and 4 games better in conference, and it would have been bigger if Turner hadn't missed 6 games. The Buckeyes beat Illinois three times by a combined 42 points. -Sullinger is probably going to be the best post player in the conference. He's a top-5 recruit in the country (5 on scout 3 on rivals). He may or may not be one-and-done, but if he isn't it will be because he's not an amazing athlete, not because he isn't productive. Teams aren't going to be able to guard him one-and-one, and when they collapse they'll get those same open looks on the perimeter. I would say he compares pretty favorably to Kevin Love. Buford and Lighty can still do some damage on the drive too. I'll put it this way, the way things look right now, OSU has four of the five best players between the two teams with Buford, Lighty, Diebler and Sullinger. Someone on Illinois besides McCamey will have to step up quite a bit for them to crack the top-3. They can't continue to have inconsistent play up front and marginal contributions from their wing players.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Apr 7, 2010 -> 08:07 PM) I'm not sure if Orton should go. Wait, I am sure, he should not go at all. Also, Bledsoe would be better suited staying a year and he'll have a chance to show how good he really is. He'd probably be a top 5 pick next year. That would imply that there will be a a 2011 draft and season. Frankly, if I know I'm going in the first round this year, I'd go to make sure I have a season of money under my belt before a lockout. They're also talking about a significant reduction in the rookie salary scale in the next CBA. You make most of your money on your second contract anyways. Also, in Bledsoe's case, he needs to prove he's a solid pure point to really soar up the draft boards, and he'd still likely have to share the ball with Knight and/or Selby next season.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Apr 7, 2010 -> 03:51 PM) I still think the Billups trade was a very intelligent move, they weren't going to get back to the title level, especially as Sheed fell off. Moving Billiups destroyed that season, but it freed up a ton of cap space that could have been used to start to rebuild on the fly. The first mistake was not committing afterwards to rebuilding by rapidly trying to move Hamilton's contract as well...or by trying to stockpile draft picks, whatever. Ben Gordon and Villanueva signings were just moronic and compounded the problem. They actually signed Hamilton to an extension AFTER trading Billups, making it even more retarded. Edit, my bad, they signed Hamilton's extension before last season with two years left. He was signed through 09/10 already and they tacked three more years onto it, making the deal run through 2012/2013. So they gave an extension to a 30 year old shooting guard that still had two years left on his deal, then traded their best player two games into the season. Amazingly retarded.

QUOTE (Palehosefan @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 08:38 PM) Yep, I said in the national championship thread that about 20-25 teams have a legit chance this next year at a title. Overall the talent level between the elite and other schools should be decreased again, especially with Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse, etc being worse than this past season. The only team I could see being head and shoulders above others would be Duke if they keep Singler Two teams from the MWC could make a push towards the top 10, BYU went 30-6 last year and return just about everyone and UNLV went 25-9 and returns everyone. One of those two will likely replace New Mexico in the top 10-15 standings this year. I agree with you, though I'm not even sure Duke can do it. I think OSU and UNC probably have the most raw talent, but they have some issues to iron out that might take a while. I believe Jimmer Fredette entered his name in the NBA draft without hiring an agent (hard to tell, the lists I've seen seem to conflict). If he goes back, which he should, they'll be quite good. UNLV looks solid too, and I wouldn't totally write off New Mexico. Yes, they lose Martinez, but as of now they get Hobson, Gary and McDonald back and they'll add Drew Gordon from UCLA. That's a pretty nice core.

One thing that I think is interesting is how many teams seem to have a legitimate chance at the top-10. In looking over the various rosters, I came up with about 20 teams I considered, and that didn't really count some potentially awesome mid-majors like Dayton and Xavier. Looking back to last year, once you got to 11 you had teams with some pretty serious question marks like Cal, Washington, UConn, Michigan and Oklahoma, not to mention UNC and Texas in the top-5. Granted there doesn't appear to be a Kansas-level team this year and a couple of teams like UNC, Kansas and Kentucky seem to fit that "could blow up horribly" mold from last year, it seems like there's more decent-to-solid teams for next year. Of course a few of them will probably get killed by the NBA, but it looks like an interesting season.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 02:34 PM) Losing Reynolds helps in my opinion. I've always though from afar, he was a bad leader and a fake star. Yarou will step up next year. Either way, they'll be back contending in two years. Illinois will be in 15-20 range. Agree with this entirely, to steal a Bill Simmons term, I think Villanova can be a "Ewing Theory" team. Scottie Reynolds dominated the ball and while he did some good things, they also largely performed as he performed. They struggled mightily in the tournament, mostly because he stunk for two games. Now Wayans should take over at the point, who's pretty talented and appears to be more of a true PG. They still have Fisher and Stokes on the wings, who are pretty solid shooters, and they have enough highly recruited bodies up front that they'll probably hold their own (Yarou especially could be a stud with more PT and development). I can't quite put them in the top-10 as things stand right now though until we see some defections, because they're still depending largely on the development of Wayans and Yarou.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 01:41 PM) Wow. Interesting top 10 here. Florida doesn't deserve the love, especially over better potential teams like Illinois (who should be in the 10-15 range). Ditto for UNC, who may have all the talent in the world, but talent means nothing if they don't mesh (see: UNC, 2009-2010). Kansas and Kentucky will be lucky to be in the top 25, let alone the top 10. Too much talent leaving. Villanova should be somewhere between 5-8. Agree Memphis should be pretty good if their freshman can make the transition. Not sold on OSU being so high, they have no PG. Sullinger might be the next OSU one and done, but if he can't get the ball he's not going to be very dominant. I have Illinois in that 10-20 range, obviously depends on who comes back for various other teams. Florida had a very similar year to Illinois and the SEC won't be as tough as the Big Ten. McCamey is the best player on either team, but I trust a frontcourt of Tyus, Macklin and Young more than the Illini's guys, who don't always show up. As of right now, Parsons is also better than any of the wings on Illinois, though that can obviously change once we see how these guys improve. I agree that I went very high on UNC, I have that much faith in Barnes and Bullock upgrading their wing players. They had horrendous guard play last year, those two are major upgrades. As for Kansas and Kentucky, you've got to look at the talent on their roster. Kansas still has the Morris twins up front, who are both solid, as well as Taylor on the wing. They also have Johnson and Robinson, who are quite talented but couldn't crack their loaded roster this year. Even assuming Henry goes, they have 8 guys on the roster that were top-70 recruits and are still in on guys like Selby, Jones and Lamb. Kentucky I'm putting there largely based on players I expect them to sign between now and the start of next season. They've already added Kanter, who supposedly turned down 7-figure contracts in Turkey, and Poole, who's a pretty good athlete. Knight is widely considered to be a Wildcat already as well, so that fills their hole at PG. Add a couple more of the 7-10 solid recruits left and they could be fringe top-10. Could either of them flame out? Obviously yes, but this early I'm leaning towards where the talent is. As for OSU, they don't necessarily need Sullinger to be dominant to be great, they already have three solid wings in Buford, Diebler and Lighty. They do have to figure out who will handle the ball, but keep in mind that for all the good Turner did, he also averaged 4.4 turnovers. I suspect they'll end up with less of a scorer at the position and try to find someone to spread the ball around. I've got 'Nova slightly off the board right now because they still have question marks at PG and up front. If Wayans and Yarou both take major steps forward, I'd probably put them in the 5-8 range. However, right now all we really know is that Fisher and Stokes are solid and Pena is decent. I have a hard time putting them in the top-10 largely behind those three players.

QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 6, 2010 -> 01:22 PM) As much as I hate to say it, no reason Illinois can't be a top 10 team if McCamey returns. Personally, I'd put them in the next tier below the list I posted with teams like Villanova, Vanderbilt, Syracuse (assuming Johnson goes) and Tennessee. They could be quite good, but a lot depends on one of Richmond, Paul and Richardson producing relatively consistently since their frontcourt can be quite unpredictable.

This would be my personal top-10 (I'm only assuming that lock-lottery guys are gone): 1) Duke- I don't think they necessarily end up here, but Singler/Smith/Irving/Curry/Dawkins is way too good a perimeter to drop much farther, especially since the top two are proven go-to guys on a championship team. The Plumlees and Ryan Kelly will be key. 2) Michigan State- Assuming Lucas and Allen are back to 100%, that's an extremely balanced and dangerous lineup with two solid recruits (Appling and Payne) off the bench. 3) Purdue- Obviously Hummel has to be healthy, and it'd help a lot of someone besides Moore, Hummel and Johnson stepped up as a respectable scoring threat. 4) Ohio State- If they sort out their point guard/ball-handling situation, I like them a lot. They have much more depth than last year and a legit post option with Sullinger. 5) UNC- Yes, this is ridiculously high. I don't care, I feel like they have the most raw talent in the country by a fairly wide margin. I feel like Drew is a serviceable point guard, Barnes and Bullock have a ton of talent on the wings, and Zeller and Henson have a ton of potential up front. That doesn't even count a bench with Marshall, Strickland, McDonald, the Wear twins, and hopefully Graves (though it wouldn't surprise me if he started ). 6) Florida- Bring everyone back and add Patric Young, who looks like a beast up front. 7) Butler- I honestly think they belong lower on raw talent, but it's hard to argue with Mack, Heyward and Howard back and Nored continuing to be a gnat on defense. I think losing Veasley will hurt more than people think (though he sucked in the tourney) and they don't exactly leave much margin for error with their playing style. 8) Memphis- Obscene amounts of talent on the perimeter, but not as sure about their frontcourt. 9) Kentucky- A bit ambitious now, but they'll probably have a great class once the checks clear. I think they at least add Knight and Leslie, perhaps one or two more of the remaining studs. Obviously Kanter needs to be eligible as well. 10) Kansas- A lot hinges on how well Elijah Johnson and/or a yet to be signed recruit play in the backcourt. The Morris twins look solid, but they have to replace Collins and probably Henry (obviously bump them up if he comes back). On the verge if people above defect: Pittsburgh and K-State Add Georgetown somewhere around #3 if for some reason Monroe decides to return.

No way Butler should be #1, there are several relatively comparable teams that bring in more talent than they do next year. Heck, you can make an argument that three Big Ten teams should be ahead of them: Michigan State with a healthy Lucas and Allen as well as adding Appling and Payne, Purdue if Hummel is healthy, and OSU with Turner gone but the rest likely back as well as a damn good class coming in.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Apr 4, 2010 -> 03:14 PM) A front court that could average 30 pts - 30 rebs if they both progress. Um, no. Even Dwight Howard only has a career average of 13 rebounds, and he's won the last four rebounding titles. It's even less likely to have two guys at that level on the same team, especially if you have another strong rebounder like Lebron at SF. It'd also be quite unlikely that they combine for 30 points with Lebron and Rose on the roster unless they play at a pace that would be comparable to the Golden State Warriors on a crystal meth binge.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Apr 2, 2010 -> 02:12 PM) Well, define small lineup. Lighty, Buford and Diebler are all 6'5" and up, Sully adds 6'9" into the rotation and Thomas fits in well with the wings. Not really that small of a lineup. Okay, I'll rephrase it as the "four perimeter player" lineup. 6'5" is fairly small as a power forward, though it's easier to get away with when your point guard is averaging 9 rebounds. Without Turner, I would think a lineup with Sullinger and either Thomas or Lauderdale makes a lot of sense, though if you don't think Buford, Diebler and/or Lighty can handle the ball-handling I understand it. They've got a lot more options with the improved depth, though at least to me it seems like talent-wise their best lineup is Buford/Diebler/Lighty/Thomas/Sullinger. Yeah, I'm assuming Turner declares, that'd be a ridiculous team if he somehow doesn't.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Apr 2, 2010 -> 08:18 AM) Sully just pulled down co-MVP of the McD's game and should team up with Thomas, Lighty, Buford and Diebler to keep some of the pressure off Lenzelle. The word is Lenzelle or Craft will be starting at PG. So are they going to stick with the small lineup then? That seems weird now that you have Sullinger and Thomas as well as Lauderdale up front. With Turner as one of the perimeter players it made sense, not as sure about that with Smith or Craft at the point.

I wouldn't say either of them are really back to the basket scorers, there aren't many of those left in the league. Amare is mostly a finisher at the rim and a spot-up guy that thrives off the pick and roll while Bosh is more of a shooter/driver at the power forward spot. Either way, they have almost the exact same percentage of their shots coming in the immediate basket area this season. Amare does convert at a higher percentage when there, but Nash likely has something to do with that. The issue is not that Rose wouldn't be the offensive facilitator, neither Bosh or Amare would do that. The issue is that Amare already plays with arguably the best one in the league while Bosh has played with TJ Ford and Jose Calderon. That skews their offensive efficiency numbers a bit. How many more easy looks per game does Amare get that wouldn't be there with a less efficient or more scoring oriented point guard? 2? 3? 7? That's a scary number to think about if you acquire him.

QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Mar 30, 2010 -> 11:23 PM) Bosh can't hit a jumper? I'd rather have a big man who can play at least passable defense. QUOTE (Chi Town Sox @ Mar 31, 2010 -> 01:42 PM) Is this the same Chris Bosh that is a Center for the Raptors who averages almost 37 percent from 3 point land this year LOL? You guys are totally missing the point of his post, he prefers Amare because he feels that Stoudemire is more aggressive and will finish better inside, the jumpers is a seperate thought. However, one also has to take into account that Bosh has to create a larger percentage of his own shots since he doesn't have Steve Nash setting him up. Add in that he's about a year and a half younger, is a better defender and rebounder (not saying much) and doesn't have the knee injury in his past to worry about, I'd lean pretty strongly towards Bosh.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Mar 29, 2010 -> 07:38 PM) Just wanted to say thank you to whoever decided not to keep Justin Upton. That would be me, but you have the last pick, not the first pick.

Draft room is open now!

48, 49 if I knew how to spell Tskitishvili. It'd be a lot harder if they didn't include the schools.

QUOTE (danman31 @ Mar 28, 2010 -> 05:06 PM) Who is Slav keeping? I think you should be able to see it somewhere on the site... Off the top of my head, I think it's Longoria, Choo, Pena, Grienke and Jurrjens.

He's keeping Howard, Mauer, Ichiro, Verlander and Lester. I'll put them in shortly.

I put in keepers for 11 of the teams, I still have to bug Tru.