ZoomSlowik

QUOTE(Dick Allen @ Jul 19, 2006 -> 04:48 PM) We've seen Freddy against the Red Sox and Yankees. I wouldn't mind seeing him against the White Sox. I think its not a lock that Freddy outperforms Trachsel, so I see absolutely no reason Minaya would want to overpay for mediocrity. I would say it's pretty much a lock if he went to the Mets. Trachsel has been brutal. His ERA is a little better, but his WHIP is horrendous. If you moved Freddy from the Cell to Shea, he'd probably shave off at least half a run, probably a little more. There are a lot of mediocre pitchers doing pretty well in the NL. That doesn't mean that they'd give up two top prospects, but he's still better than what they have, especially when you consider that he's their THIRD starter.

QUOTE(SoxFan1 @ Jul 16, 2006 -> 12:15 PM) Chelsea = Aneheim Angels when the won the WS Manchester Uniter = New York Yankees Actually, I'd say Chelsea is getting to be more like the Red Sox. They never used to win anything, then Abramovic comes in and they spend a fortune on their team. They've dominated of late, and their spending is getting worse. They just added Kalou, Ballack, and Shevchenko. Their spending is getting pretty ridiculous.

Oops, I screwed up the rosters. Somehow I missed Chimpy2121's post in the registration thread. He'll be joining this league. Shakes will be dropped for now, with top priority in the next league. Sorry for the inconvenience. Current waiting list: Shakes Sayitaintso Drunk Bomber

Sorry guys, I gotta fix the league roster. Somehow I missed Chimpy2121's post in the registration thread. He'll be joining this league. Shakes will be dropped for now, with top priority in the next league. Sorry for the inconvenience.

QUOTE(JackTalkThai @ Jul 17, 2006 -> 09:20 PM) I really think this notion is nothing more than a wishfully thinking urban legend. Look at the early career numbers of Smoltz, Buehrle, Halladay, Mussina, Schilling, Clemens, Johnson, Maddux... They ALL saw their ERA drop during the season when they received their first big jump in innings pitched. None of them experienced a quantifiably negative effect from the increase in innings pitched...and that fact makes it difficult for me to understand why most just assume that Verlander will all of the sudden fall apart if he pitches 200 innings this year. It's not like he has an unrefined 20 year old arm. The guy has an amazingly smooth and developed delivery for a 23 year old. IMHO it's Liriano whose herky-ish, higher effort delivery seems primed for a late season swoon...not the butter that Justin has been dealing. Those guys were brutal their first year and didn't get a full workload as a starter, so I don't see why that applies. Not one of them cracked 100 innings in their first year. I could just as easily point to Dontrelle Willis or Kerry Wood, and those comparisons are a lot more valid. There's a big difference between pitching 130 in the minors and 200+ in the majors, not as much when you're already in the majors and increasing your workload. Plus you have the added pressure of a playoff push, so who knows how he'll hold up. I'm not saying that he's going to suddenly suck, but expecting him to pitch this well all year with no bumps in the road the rest of the way is seriously optomistic. Also, Liriano has about 24 fewer innings under his belt and hasn't been worked as a starter the whole year.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jul 17, 2006 -> 03:25 PM) Verlander i still think is something of a question mark, simply because he's never thrown anywhere near as many innings as you throw in a ML season. Especially if the playoffs hit. The only problem with that is even if his ERA goes up a full run it's still a pretty solid 3.83. No, I don't think he'll keep pitching quite that well, but he's been dominant enough that I don't think you can call him a fluke. Plus I'd think he'd be their 5th starter for the playoffs, meaning he might pitch out of the pen. That'd be a bit of a boost actually with his stuff.

Nice work. 2 is probably my favorite.

QUOTE(fattyguy78 @ Jul 17, 2006 -> 05:16 PM) i would like to join too if there are any spots still available You're in already. League 2.

QUOTE(Sonik22 @ Jul 17, 2006 -> 04:49 PM) whats the ID and password?? You'll have to talk to the commish about that. I PM'd him, so hopefully you'll know soon.

It'd be nice if your team name is something similar to your screen name so I can figure out who we have. It's not the end of the world though. I can figure it out if your Yahoo ID is similar, or you can just post in here who you are. As for the draft time, it can be moved if it needs to be.

QUOTE(VenomSox @ Jul 17, 2006 -> 04:41 PM) Yahoo Right? Of course.

QUOTE(LosMediasBlancas @ Jul 17, 2006 -> 04:37 PM) Just curious, when was the last time a defending WS champ didn't make the post season the following year? The Marlins a couple of years ago. I'm pretty sure the Angels and Diamondbacks didn't either. That would be 01-03 champs if I'm not mistaken.

Time to get going on this! Here is the roster: ZoomSlowik- commish Steve9347 Be Good Goldmember SoxFan1 Kalapse Sox1422 jackie hayes soxfest Chisoxrd5 Venom Sox maggsmaggs I will be posting the league info as soon as I finish the league assignments. Good luck, and have fun! Alright, league info: League #- 150317 password- soxtalk Let's join people!

First two leagues have been formed. Others will follow as interest dictates. I'm sure some of us would be willing to play in more than one league if it is necessary.

Crap, I'm a dumbass. I forgot to count myself. Sorry Sayitaintso, you're on the waiting list for now. Leagues are assigned. Please go to the threads and join.

Let's get going! Here's the roster: ChWRocK2- commish Sleepy WhiteSox Abe Froman THE WOOD Rowand 44 Soxhawks whitesoxin' shakes fattyguy78 That funky motion MHizzle85 Sonik22 I'll throw this thread over to Rock now. Good luck and have fun!

Sweet, I can makeup leagues now! I'll be posting the assignments in new threads shortly. To anyone that still wants to play that isn't on the list yet, new leagues can still be formed.

This trade would never happen. If they were going to trade Zambrano, which they probably aren't, I'd imagine they'd want a much better package with younger players. They'd probably ask for at least two top prospects (better than we have), one solid young major league starter and another prospect (something like B-Mac and Fields, although that still might not be enough), or a major league stud (something like Buehrle and maybe another prospect0. They're not going to take two 30-year old starters back that are significantly worse than Zambrano. It'd be much more likely that they try to re-sign him and he ends up walking. Then we'd just have to give him a ridiculous sum of money.

QUOTE(Kalapse @ Jul 17, 2006 -> 03:35 PM) I'd say 3/36 or 3/39 with a 4th year option along with a nice $1.5M/$2M buyout would be pretty damn plausible. That makes the most sense. I personally wouldn't even think of giving him 4 years guaranteed.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jul 17, 2006 -> 03:15 PM) On paper, the Yankees should have plenty of starting pitching. Mussina, Johnson, Wang, Pavano, Wright, Chacon, etc. They shouldn't be in the market for a starting pitcher at all. But when you sign expensive guys who are in their 30's...things happen. Well, a lot of those guys are probably gone. Mussina has a very expensive option for 07 that I can't imagine gets picked up, and Johnson and Wright's contracts will be up after 07. Going into the 2007 off-season that leaves them with Pavano, Chacon, Wang, possibly Hughes on the major league roster, and whomever they sign next year (my guess is one of Schmidt and Zito and another cheaper option). Chacon could be gone as well. One or more of that first group might be back at a lower price. By then they could theoretically be after anywhere from 1 to 4 starters depending on what happens. I find it hard to believe that they'd sign none though. 3 or 4 starters would be worst case scenarios and fairly unlikely. My guess would be something like this: 1) Schmidt/Zito 2) Pavano (though he could be dumped, replacing him with a FA in 07) 3) Wang 4) FA signing (either 06 or 07) 5) Hughes/Chacon/Mussina, Johnson, or Wright at reduced prices/other FA

Cleveland's pitching has been a lot worse than I expected. Their starters have actually been somewhat competent (although I thought Lee would be better), but the bullpen has been brutal. I didn't expect that much of a dropoff from last year. The Twins still don't really scare me in the long run. They really only have four competent pitchers (Santana, Liriano, Nathan, and Rincon), and their offense still isn't that strong even with Morneau stepping up. I really hope we don't have to win games late in the year with Santana and Liriano on the mound though. I really didn't think the Tigers pitching would hold up this long. I still don't see it lasting the rest of the year. Rogers seems to be starting his slide, I still don't know how Robertson's ERA is as low as it is with that WHIP, and Maroth and Miner don't really scare me. That said, I think we can stop expecting Verlander to fall off, and Bonderman looks legit. They aren't going anywhere, although they can't keep winning at quite this good a rate. I still think we can beat them all if we hit our stride. Our offense is much improved, and I think our pitching will get better. Cliff can't hurt us anymore, and I think our starters can finish well (outside of Garcia, I don't have much faith in him). Hopefully that happens.

QUOTE(WCSox @ Jul 17, 2006 -> 02:06 PM) The number of years committed to players may go down (i.e., no more Brown-like 7-year deals), but I don't see any evidence of the amount per year going down. The fact that an injury-prone, not-that-great A.J. Burnett got 5/$55 certainly suggests otherwise. Glavine is a dinosaur, so his current deal isn't comparable to Buehrle's. Pettitte is SEVEN years older than Buehrle, has had more injury problems, and his regular-season numbers in the AL were less impressive than Mark's. That's all meaningless media-speak. Robin Ventura and Ron Schueler were saying the same crap back in '98 and looked what happened. The fact that the Sox let Paulie twist in the wind during his walk year with Dye as their only other high OPS player speaks volumes. If that's all they're willing to offer, Mark will probably be pitching elsewhere in '08. That's seriously low-balling him. Schmitt and Colon are both past their primes and have had serious arm injuries in the recent past. Schilling is a dinosaur and won't command much. The BoSox won't let Beckett go because he's all they have after Schilling. And the Cubs and Astros also have deep pockets and are likely to re-sign their aces. So that basically leaves Zito and Carpenter. You are correct about the number of free agents determining market value. It's also fair to say that Mark may choose to stay in Chicago or go somewhere else for less than he could get. But to say that Buehrle "won't make $14 mil a year" is wrong. He could easily get that much money in a four- or five-year deal if the Yankess, Red Sox, or Mets needed a starter that badly. But if we can agree that $13 million/year over five years is definitely a possibility, I think that we have some common ground. I do think that it's possible that he gets $13 mil, but I think that's a best-case scenario on the open market. A couple comments on the other pitchers: Judging by his current performance, it'd be hard to say that Schmidt is over the hill. I can definitely see the Yankees giving him a 2 or 3 year deal at a pretty high price. I would definitely think they go for Zito over Buehrle. However, that's all probably mute because it's pretty much a lock that we exercise his option if we don't work out an extension. Boston probably will keep Beckett, but who knows, he might want to test the market. Schilling will be an interesting situation, it could end up similar to what happened with Pedro. He'll probably want a 3-year deal at a high price, and they may or may not want to pay that. He'd almost certainly end up with another contender. Carpenter is kind of similar, although in the long run I see him staying with St, Louis. You're right, Oswalt probably stays. I can definitely see Zambrano going though. Zambrano might want to get out of that situation. I sure would if I were him. I also get the feeling that teams like Boston and New York would offer more money than the Cubs, they don't exactly have a good history in that area. My problem is how many open rotation spots will these teams have? Only so many pitchers can go to those three teams, and Boston might not even be in the market for a starter with Beckett and Schilling potentially back and Lester and Papelbon developing. The other two might have holes, but they might also fill them this off-season. Those teams can't sign everyone.

QUOTE(iamshack @ Jul 17, 2006 -> 01:56 PM) Not sure, but I know Detroit is one of them. The Tigers reportedly had a deal in place for Arizona whereas Detroit would trade Zumaya and Curtis Granderson to Arizona for Vazquez. Vazquez then stepped in and vetoed the deal. Damn, that would have been pretty nice for Arizona.

QUOTE(WCSox @ Jul 17, 2006 -> 12:57 PM) The fact that Vazquez and Mussina were getting big bucks from contracts signed three years ago supports my argument. By the time Mark is a free agent, it'll have been about five years since those deals were inked... and they're going to be significantly higher. If Brunett and Vazquez are going to average $11 million/year, Buehrle and Zito will average AT LEAST $2 million/year more and could probably command additional money. A 27-year-old Mark Buehrle is inherently more valuable than a 38-year-old Randy Johnson or a 35-year-old Mike Mussina, even if he hasn't been as dominant as those guys were several years before inking their current deals. You're also forgetting the Steinbrenner Factor. Keep in mind that Randy Johnson is a free agent soon and that Seinbrenner is going to also be looking for replacements for Pavano and Wright. If he's desperate for a relatively young, durable, and accomplished starter and is willing to pay Jeter $19 million a year, Mark could easily get 5 years/$75 million in New York. I don't have to. Mark has already stated not once, but twice, that he's interested in playing for the Cardinals. And when was the last time that Jerry Reinsdorf committed $60-$70 million to a pitcher? If JR and KW didn't make a serious effort to re-sign Konerko in his walk year, why would they do so for Buehrle? Mark may not even have a say in whether or not he tests the open market - JR may force him to. Maddux and Glavine are both finesse pitchers and they earned top dollar in their primes. "Stuff" matters more when a pitcher is 22 and has limited MLB experience. But at some point, pitchers need to turn their "superior stuff" into results. Buehrle has and, for the most part, Burnett has not. Factor in Burnett's arm problems, bad attitude, and lack of postseason success, and I guarantee you that Mark will make $3-5 million/year more than him. Just because it's been a while doesn't mean that the contract totals will increase. In fact, they're coming down a bit. You're not going to see $18 mil contracts like Hampton got, or people giving guys in their mid-30's monster long term contracts like Mussina or Brown, or someone like Chan Ho Park getting $12 mil a year, or a supremely unproven commodity like Dreifort getting over $10 mil (yes, Burnett was more proven). Just because time has passed doesn't mean that people automatically get more money. Buehrle is not as good as Maddux and Glavine were in their prime, so that's a moot point. Even on his more recent contract, Glavine signed for 3-35, nothing that ridiculous. Buehrle is pretty similar to Pettitte, and he got 3-31. He's also not really more valuable than Mussina or Johnson. At the time they were signed, Mussina was only 32 and was coming off a solid season, and Johnson had just put up a Cy Young caliber season. Yeah, the deals were a bit long, but that's another story. Both were at least as good as Buehrle if not better. Age isn't really a factor in the price, just the length. I never said stuff was everything, but guys clearly have to prove less to get serious money if they have good stuff. They're going to pay more if they think a guy can be a shut-down type ace. That's what is going to knock Buehrle down from absolute top dollar just a bit. Mark has also said that he wants to stay with the Sox, and the Sox have said that re-signing Mark will be a top priority this off-season. Mark's a different player than Paulie, so that's a bit irrelevant. They also probably weren't too sure they wanted to pay what he was worth at the time, given his previously inconsistent performance. That's also a pre-title situation, we have more money to work with now. If they're willing to shell out a little under $10 mil a year for Contreras and Garland, I don't see why they wouldn't shell out 4-48 or 5-55 for Mark. Mark will not make $14 mil a year. He's just not an elite pitcher, those are the only guys that make that kind of money. He's a very good pitcher, which translates to a bit less than that. You keep harping on Burnett, but his contract is fairly meaningless. He got that much money because he was the best starter available in a weak market, which jacked up his price. That won't be the case when Mark hits the market. The Yankees can only sign so many pitchers, and they're a lot more likely to go after Schmidt or Zito in 2006 or Beckett, Carpenter, Colon, Oswalt, Schilling or Zambrano in 2007 (obviously they won't all be there, but probably at least 2 or 3).

QUOTE(maggsmaggs @ Jul 16, 2006 -> 08:02 PM) So this mean we only need one more? Nope, I already had Be Good on my list. Now we only need one more. Don't worry if you miss out though, I'm guessing that at least one more will be formed. It's just a bit too early for a lot of people to be thinking about the NFL.