ZoomSlowik

Take a look at all of the numbers for the starters you are so frightened about. Only Colon has been even close to dominant (we won the one game head to head), and Schilling hasn't put up a good major league start since the ALCS. Also, we didn't get shut down by Washburn in either of his outings (6 innings in both starts, 4 runs in one 3 in the other). Why should we start doubting our top 3 starters? They've been much better than any AL top 3 collection that we might face in the playoffs. And as others have said, let's worry about it in September. I also find it interesting that you use the argument that El Duque hasn't done much in the playoffs in the last few years while saying that Wells is effective in the playoffs. They're both pretty much in the same position. Both have missed time, and both have sucked, and neither have made a significant playoff start in a while.

The National's park is very favorable to pitchers. His ERA is 2.36 at home and 5.24 away. When you combine his road ERA with the fact that he plays in the NL, his probable ERA on our team is truly frightening.

I didn't say that Beane deserved no credit for the drafts, I'm just saying he isn't some managing god and we should all bow down before his feet. What you're looking for in a player is one thing, finding that player, developing them, and building around them is another. Billy does the first part, the scouts do a lot of the work in figuring out who to draft (with Billy getting the final decision), the coaches focus on the developing, and Billy gets the other players. I'd consider the drafting their biggest area of succes where he gets a lot of help. There are other teams that have had success, but they didn't feel the need to write a book about it. As for the other teams, Boston and LA both have a lot more money to work with, and Toronto has some more money and haven't done much. Doesn't get pitches to hit in RBI situations? I'm sorry, since when do guys groove pitches to Vlad or Tejada? Putting the ball in play in RBI situations is a major part of being an RBI guy, and Dunn doesn't do it very often. He may be young and affordable right now, but until he can hit over .270 for long stretches forgive me if I feel there are better players out there.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Jul 6, 2005 -> 03:18 PM) But he still gets on-base in those situations -- actually, he does a better job at getting on-base in those situations. And, apparently he's doing enough to drive in runs, he drove in 102 last year. So, he's really not failing in those situations. If they're not giving him good pitches to hit, is it his fault that he's not driving in runs? BTW -- I believe during Oakland's run, their offense hasn't been terrible -- I think it's been right around middle of the pack. Your last comment about, "if you give them blah and blah and blah" -- I dunno, that's pretty dumb, 'cause Beane drafted most of those guys. Your blaming Beane for drafting all of those guys now, too? I take it you haven't read Moneyball, because all you seem to hit on is that OBP is the key stat, which really, if you read the book, isn't what you're supposed to take from it. OBP was the undervalued stat then, so that's what he bought -- now that it's been valued correctly, he has to find something else that's undervalued -- it seems to be defense. I don't see how Harden/Zito/Mulder/Hudson aren't the type of players they like. All came from college, which is what Beane (apparently) thought was undervalued during in the past couple years -- and, 'cause he thought that college stats actually meant something. Zito and Mulder were both soft-tossers, and Hudson was 'too small' for many of the scouts. Giambi was an OBP machine, and Chavez/Tejada both played stellar defense along with real good SLG% numbers. Chavez has also turned into a guy who BB's a lot, too, though I doubt anyone knew whether or not that would come through. It's really silly, IMO, for you to make it seem like Beane 'lucked' into all of those guys, when he keeps on doing it. Look at their roster now -- Street, Blanton, Swisher, Crosby, Chavez, Zito -- a pretty huge part of the team, all homegrown. Plus the guys they lose 'cause they can't afford 'em... My point was that OBP percentage is what most people take out of that book, and it is also something that you seem to value a ton. Dunn may have driven in 102 last year, but that's kind of weak for a guy that hit 46 homers. He could have driven in an awful lot more. I never said that Oakland's offense was terrible, I said it wasn't stellar, so I don't know why teams would build around their philosophies. Pitching might be another story, but taking college players isn't exactly a determining criterion, since that only eliminates about 40% of pitchers in the draft. I think you're giving him too much credit for their drafts anyways. Their scouts also play a huge role in that area, and after drafting them he has little to do with their development. He also supposedly wanted to pass on Chavez, and was a big reason they took Ariel Prieto over Helton. Also, no matter how well you scout, there's going to be a major element of luck in the draft. There are tons of guys that can't miss that do, and guys that people didn't think would do anything that turn into valuable players. Also outside of the drafted guys I mentioned the only player that I would call a success thus far is Street.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Jul 6, 2005 -> 02:50 PM) In RBI situations, he still posts an .800+ OPS. Looking at his three year splits, with RISP with two outs, he has a .432 OBP and an .813 OPS. With RISP regardless of outs, over the last three years, he has a .421 OBP and an .855 OPS. It's not as bad as you think it is... And, he was IBB 11 times last year, so it's not as much as you think. He earns his walks. Zoom, I also should say that Dunn probably isn't the guy I want up in an RBI situation. But I'll take the good with the bad, and I think the good much outweighs the bad with him -- especially since he's making less than $10 million. As far as comparing him to Sosa, how much does Dunn make? I can assure you that it's not even half of what Sammy makes. Even the past two years, which have been 'down' years for Sosa, he's been decent -- just, nowhere near worth $17 million or however much he makes. As far as your comment about Oakland, I think they do a pretty damn good job for the money they have. They're last in their division in payroll, yet have made the playoffs in four years since 2000. It's better than anything the Sox have done (though hopefully this year that will change) with a payroll that's been behind everyone else's (in the West) for at least the past couple of years. Dunn is going to do well when you incorporate on base percentage, but walks very rarely drive in runs. His 3 year averages with runners on is .253, and .210 with runners in scoring position. That is abysmal for someone that is supposed to be an elite hitter, which is probably why Cinci doesn't bat him 3rd or 4th. I wasn't comparing the salary to Sosa, I was comparing the style of hitting, which is pretty similar except that Sosa actually has made more contact. As for Oakland, that didn't really answer my question. Their offense has not been what carried there team, and yet on base percentage is what everyone takes from Moneyball. They got there on the back of their superior pitching. Also, their drafting is what got them there, not their statistical analysis or great acquisitions. If you give Kenny Hudson, Mulder, Zito, Harden, Chavez, Tejada, and Giambi out of the farm system, I'm sure he'd do at least as well, and only one of them is a real moneyball player.

Wood is by far the most overrated pitcher in the league. He's never won more than 14 games, he's constantly getting hurt, he throws so many pitches that he rarely goes deep into games, he walks a ton of guys, and his lowest ERA was 3.20 in the NL. His BAA isn't even that good the last two years. For his salary and the talent it would take to acquire him, there are much better pitchers. As for the power, he typically works in the 94-96 range, which is roughly the same as the guys I mentioned.

QUOTE(kyyle23 @ Jul 6, 2005 -> 02:23 PM) I guess I just dont feel that Dunn projects into their lineup well. I see their lineup becoming more corpseball-like. Lots of strikeouts and homeruns. Deer struck out alot and never really had a high average, and hit alot of homeruns. The difference I see is the ability to take a walk, but alot of pitchers unintentionally-intentionally walk Dunn to get to batters behind him. Ah well, you just cant talk rational with most cubs fans right now. Just thought I'd throw this in... http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=opinion Basically the other guy was full of s***. There are better guys to have than Dunn. Walks are only one facet of offense, and are of less importance for an RBI guy like Dunn than for a leadoff man. If you're going to bat him #3, the walks help. However, his prime job is to be an RBI guy, in which case batting average is more important, especially with men on and with men in scoring position. His low batting average and his abysmal BA with men in scoring position (.198) cost the Reds runs because he does not make contact. And I think you're right, the Cubs need a consistent leadoff man more than they need another slugger. They're better off without Sammy, why would they want to bring back a similar player, who even has a lower average than Sammy did? I would call him a good but not great hitter. He's obviously got a ton of pop and gets on base a lot, but there are much more reliable hitters in RBI situations. He's more valuable to moneyball disciples than he is to his real team. For those constantly referring to that book, I'd like to ask exactly what have the A's won of any importance and what is the benefit of duplicating what has often been a mediocre offense?

QUOTE(kyyle23 @ Jul 6, 2005 -> 01:41 PM) Could someone with a little time on their hands do me a favor? http://forums.prospero.com/n/mb/message.as...bs7&msg=8.40774 Follow this thread, and my attempt at rational conversation with Cubs fans. RuinsoftheIE has told me that I use opinion wrongly, and I am curious as to whether anyone else feels this way. If this is the way I am percieved, things are gonna change. I dont like being told my opinion is wrong, and that i dont even know what an opinion is. You definitely went too far with the Rob Deer comparison. Deer was a career .220 hitter who only hit 30 homers twice, never drove in 90 runs, and didn't walk as much as Dunn. However, they're definitely overestimating Dunn. Thome played 100 games for the first time when he was 24 (turned 25 in August), and he hit .314 that year. I'd mention that. You should probably tell them to wait until Dunn hits .270 to make the Thome comparisons. I didn't see you do anything seriously wrong in the opinion/fact department in what I read. An opinion is simply the expression of your belief on a certain topic. This isn't a problem unless you start using opinions more like facts. Look at some of Anthrax's posts for an example of this.

QUOTE(Antonio Osuna @ Jul 6, 2005 -> 01:39 PM) In a heartbeat. This team needs a true power pitcher. Wood doesn't throw any harder than Garcia or Contreras. There's no way I'd pay what the Cubs would want. I'm sure they'd demand minimally our top 2 prospects, and we'd end up paying his salary. That's too much for an inconsistent career NL pitcher with a bad injury history.

QUOTE(The Ginger Kid @ Jul 6, 2005 -> 12:49 PM) The trib had a good article yesterday about the '93 Giants which many of you probably read. I have a lot of hope and faith in this team but will remain cautiously optimistic until I see them celebrating on the mound after they clinch the division. It's a great team that continues to surprise me -- I gave up on them last night, they looked flat and lethargic. I've learned my lesson and won't do that again. But the truth is that things can change very quickly. The Twins could make a trade and absolutely catch fire, especially with that pitching staff. I hate them, because they're very good and they scare me. That was also in the two division days with no wildcard. If we had to compete with the Angels or Boston it might be more interesting. Obviously I'd rather have Vlad since he's younger and plays the field and is a better contact hitter, but I don't think he has as much of an impact on the rest of the lineup as Frank. He swings at so many pitches that he doesn't work the pitcher as well, and doesn't walk as much. The guys around Vlad just don't seem to hit any differently with him in the lineup or out of the lineup. Frank definitely seems to have a positive impact when he is in the lineup.

QUOTE(kyyle23 @ Jul 6, 2005 -> 11:51 AM) LOL, I have been checking out the Coob board on chicagosports.com to see how they are taking things, and the fans have decided that they need Adam Dunn. I was just told that Adam Dunn is a younger version of Jim Thome. I didnt see it, I only see a younger version of Rob Deer. Anyone who feels like chiming in, feel free.. There isn't a whole lot of difference between Dunn's number's last year and some of Thome's years. However, he really needs to get his average up. I'd say he's somewhere between the two players. He's nowhere near as bad as Deer.

QUOTE(VAfan @ Jul 5, 2005 -> 11:31 PM) I would agree Moyer is a risk, but a different kind of risk - can he pitch outside Seattle? On the plus side the guy will not get a sore arm like El Duque, and his head is always going to be in the game unlike Contreras. I think KW and Ozzie realize now that McCarthy cannot be the answer this year if El Duque has any more arm troubles, and I don't think they have much faith in Munoz (though he was pitcher of the week) or anyone else at AAA to be an emergency 5th starter. My gut feeling about Moyer is that he will be a better pitcher again if put on a championship team. His last good year was 2003. It was a run of 3 great years for him from 2001-03. In each year Seattle was competitive. When the team dropped off, Moyer nosedived too. I don't see Moyer as a savior that will necessarily put us over the top. But he's a savvy pitcher who might get it together for one last hurrah. He pitched very well in the postseason in 2001, so I see him as potentially better than El Duque and definitely better than Contreras in postseason starts. I really don't see Moyer as enough of an improvement over Duque/Contreras to warrant making a trade, and our 5th starter isn't really that important from here on out, especially with Hernandez back shortly after the break.

QUOTE(3E8 @ Jul 5, 2005 -> 11:20 PM) Three 1-run wins and one 2-run win. I'm sure as hell glad that Vlad and K-Rod saw no action in those games. In case you haven't noticed, a lot of playoff games end up that way. One of their wins was by one run also, another was by Santana, who we wouldn't see, and the other they won 10-7 in a slug fest. K-Rod did pitch one of the games by the way (allowed an earned run after starting the inning and left the bases loaded), and as I said, I think in terms of team impact, Frank and Vlad is about a draw (Frank's first two games off the DL were in the series). I like our chances if you lineup our rotation against theirs. Contreras got two starts against them, that won't happen in the playoffs. Also, we've scored more runs and our pen has a better ERA.

QUOTE(sox-r-us @ Jul 5, 2005 -> 10:05 PM) Beating Tampa Bay is one thing....beating the ANgels and Red Sox in the playoffs with their pitching and batting line up is another Enjoy this season....I am doing it too.....but hopefully Kenny realizes this team may have issues in the playoffs and does something about it Whatever. We're 4-3 against the Angels, and that's with Santana's fluke and 2 Contreras starts and one Garland start. We won both that Buehrle pitched and both that Garcia pitched. I know the Vlad and K-Rod issues come up, but K-Rod was there for a while and wouldn't have pitched that often anyways, and Vlad can only do so much (we were without Frank anyways in the 4 game set and one of the three game set).

Please no on Moyer. I really don't see him as an upgrade. At least Contreras has good stuff, and El Duque has a good playoff track record. Plus I think even El Duque throws harder than he does. Moyer is basically the stereotypical lefthanded junk baller that teams use as a 4 or 5 starter, only he is a 1 or 2 starter in Seattle.

QUOTE(AnthraxFan93 @ Jul 5, 2005 -> 04:43 PM) No that is the point.. 10 mil for JS or a younger verison of JS.. I'll take the younger version please. of course neither will be on the sox with their asking price so all this arguing is pointless... It's not that easy. You're going to have to commit a lot more years to keep Burnett, and with his injury history that is a somewhat iffy proposition. The comparison is more like Schmidt for $10 mil and one year and Burnett for around $40 mil for 4 years (as a starting point mind you. Pavano got that much last year, and Burnett will probably be in higher demand). There's a much higher financial commitment in the latter. Again, your statement has nothing to do with how easy it would be to retain those players. You can't seem to put logical thoughts together, which drastically weaken any of your arguments.

Burnett is considerably harder to resign than Schmidt for several reasons. First off, Schmidt has a set option for next season, while Burnett is a free agent. Second, Burnett is a much younger player who has been healthy this year while Schmidt hasn't. Third, Burnett has been pitching much better than Schmidt this season. Lastly, it doesn't really matter because unless we drug their GM's and convince them to take Contreras in the deal, we're not likely to invest that much money in our rotation.

QUOTE(RockRaines @ Jul 5, 2005 -> 04:08 PM) How many AL teams score more runs than us??? As far as pitching between Mark and Freddy, he is the BEST pitcher in the NL right now, probably in the whole league. How can you say he will just be ok if he came to the AL. The guy is flat out dominating people. His ERA is under 2, that unbelieveable. And for the minor leaguers, you entirely missed the point, im saying you cant guarantee they will pan out, for the MB Garland and A-row, we have tons of highly regarded prospects who have failed, how bout Borchard, Olivo. There are 2 sides to the coin. Im saying i dont care about the next few years, I want us to have the best chance to win now, if we dont, then fine, we lost. But I want KW to give us the best players to get to the WS now. You missed the entire point of my ERA statement. The fact that only three NL teams have scored more runs than the Sox tells you that there are not as many runs scored in the NL, meaning that AL teams generally have a higher run output. This means that Clemens ERA would be higher if he comes to the AL. AL pitchers rarely finish with ERA's under 3, much less one. His ERA won't stay that low all year, especially if he switches leagues. His ERA last year was 2.98, and nothing has changed. My statement was that his ERA would be somewhere between Mark and Freddy's ERA right now, which would put him somewhere in the 2.60-3.25 area. Isn't that pretty good? Wasn't Santana's ERA about 2.65 last year, which was considered one of the more dominant seasons in the AL in a while? Expecting him to finish with an ERA this low is ansanine, Maddux is the only guy in the last ten years I can think of finishing with an ERA under two. Clemens has never done it in his career, so I doubt he finally does it when he turns 42. But he'd still be better than most. I'd rather not give up the thin level of talent we have above AA for a half season from an expensive pitcher, and as I said, there's no telling whether or not he really makes a big improvement in our chances to win. There's some improvement, but he's just about as likely to come up with a middling start as our other pitchers.

QUOTE(AnthraxFan93 @ Jul 5, 2005 -> 03:59 PM) Well you wanted to give me the numbers on Lowe, I will give you the guy he would have replaced.. Lowe wouldn't have replaced McCarthy, he would have replaced El Duque, the guy who's record is 7-2. Lowe has a 3.96 ERA with a bad WHIP and BAA in an extreme pitcher's park in the NL, and cost $4-$5 mil (not sure on exact numbers) more with a longer commitment. If we had signed Lowe, odds are we wouldn't have A.J. or Iguchi since that money would be commited to a rather mediocre starter. You keep b****ing about the money spent, but our payroll is $75 million even though our attendance is middle of the pack (and that is inflated by some half price nights).

QUOTE(RockRaines @ Jul 5, 2005 -> 03:57 PM) Risk=reward. Not risking anything will never get you a title. That's incredibly far from the truth. Not every WS champ makes a deadline deal. In fact, few make a deal of any consequence.

QUOTE(RockRaines @ Jul 5, 2005 -> 03:41 PM) Doesnt matter what he did then, its what he does NOW, and what he has now is a 1.41 in a hitters park. If you want to sit back and make sure we have some question mark minor leaguers for the next few years, thats you, I for one, would sell the barons for a WS title. Our minor leaguers dont exactly have the best track record coming up anyway, who says they are worth jack s***? Our top prospect just came up and tanked, the track record speaks the trend is that. So you wouldnt trade some serious question marks for the best pitcher in the NL? Thats honestly sad, I want to win now, and this is the team to do it, is there anyone else who wants a WS title? We know from the 85 bears that we can live on it for at least 20 years if not more. Clemens does not guarantee us a World Series title. No one does. He can put up a dominate start and we still lose 2-1. s*** happens in the playoffs. I'd tend to think he'd be good, but not unhittable in the AL. He's doing even better than he did last year right now. In fact, this is the best he's done in quite some time, and really nothing has changed from his time on the Yankees, other than the league he is in. The NL definitely scores fewer runs. Only three NL teams have scored more runs than the White Sox offense we b**** about so often. I think he'd end up pitching somewhere between Mark and Garcia right now (similar to Johan's numbers last year). While that's good, is that worth $10 mil and our top two prospects for half a season? Who knows. I'm somewhat torn. We're probably in the playoff already, so the main benefit would be a handful of starts in the playoffs. If we don't win, we basically gave up a lot for nothing. If we do win (and as great as that is), he's still gone and now we don't have our two best prospects. There's an awful lot of risk, and I'm not so sure our chances of winning increase that much with him since one start counts for so much in the playoffs and you don't know who'll do what. Anyways, there's still not that great a chance that he would agree to come here. As for the minor leaguers, there's no guarantee there either, but is it really worth making sure we have no one who can contribute for at least the next two and a half seasons? Where would we be if we had dealt Buehrle, Garland, and Rowand a few years ago? McCarthy isn't even 22 yet and has played about half a year over A ball. Give him a break.

QUOTE(kyyle23 @ Jul 5, 2005 -> 12:51 PM) Lots of speculation on both of our parts. Where in the Rotation is AJ going to fit in? They have Johnson,Pavano, Mussina, Brown, and The infamous Jarret Wright. Something tells me that Kevin Brown is either done after this year or he is goign to take his act elsewhere. new York doesnt have alot of patience with Brown after his substandard year last year, his attitude, and his lack of health. Wright may never pitch for the Yankees, who knows? He seems to have one good year and then goes on the DL for 5 years. I think we can get it down, we have Carl, Pauly,Frank,Timo and Shingo all coming off the books next year. Im glad you are positive that the Sox will not make a run at all of these players, but I doubt that seriously. If I were the Yankees and had my choice I would go after Oswalt over AJ, which would help us out in signing him. So if the Yankees throw big money at Oswalt, setting the bar on FA pitchers in the market, this helps the Sox sign someone who is already looking for big money? Im thinking this would set the Sox back even more if Oswalt signed with the Yanks, it would probably drive the bargaining up and put him out of the Sox range. Another thing, how does Burnett fit into our rotation any better than the Yankees? We've already got 5 starting pitchers under contract for next year, only ours have been more effective and have been healthier than the Yankee's group. I highly doubt we are going to sign another starter for big bucks, since we are already spending so much on our rotation, and Garland will be due for a raise. We simply can't afford to have half our payroll in the starting rotation.

Beane got a solid pitching prospect, a guy who was a good reliever the season before and an OF that had good numbers as a part time player, all of them young. He wasn't going to do a whole lot better. Also remember that Garland had less value at the time, and I never really remember him being mentioned (thought he was dealt before we got a chance to argue about it). Plus that was an offseason deal, meaning there is a little bit less action and less competition between teams vying for that player. In this case, the Giants are looking for guys that will be able to contribute next year, meaning I doubt we'd be able to get him without giving up Contreras or B-Mac.

The two starting pitchers and a top prospect thing is BS, but they aren't going to give him away either. Some team is going to offer them something better than Contreras and McCarthy to get him. Schmidt isn't that much more expensive than Contreras, so taking him in the trade doesn't make much sense. Neither does getting McCarthy if they want to compete next year. My guess is they'll try to rip someone off at the deadline (like trying to get Howard and others from Philly) and if that doesn't work they'll just keep him.

QUOTE(kyyle23 @ Jul 4, 2005 -> 02:22 PM) Ok, well 5 of those 10 years he was on perrenial bottom-dweller Pittsburgh. He has also gotten better in each of the past 3 years. Since when does being on a bad team mean you can't be a good pitcher? Granted most bad teams lack pitching, that doesn't mean that they can't have one good pitcher, or develop someone good.