ZoomSlowik

Yeah, let's assume an injury is going to happen to someone out of three of the most durable starting pitchers in the league and overpay for a starting pitcher. That sounds smart.

QUOTE(DBAH0 @ Jun 28, 2005 -> 08:01 PM) But he's got an attitude problem and isn't exactly great on defense. T-Wolves are gonna have problems sharing around the ball in my opinion. Green has T-Mac like potential. Granger is a lot like Scottie Pippen and does a lot of things well. Well rounded game. Wright is bigger, and better defensively. Green isn't going to help this year, and maybe not next year. the T-Wolves need some immediate help. Granger is a solid player, but he is somewhat of a tweener. I would bet that is why he is slipping. Wright tested as one of the weaker wing players in terms of athleticism and doesn't have the same quality of offensive game as McCants. McCants should be able to score immediately. The rest could come.

QUOTE(qwerty @ Jun 28, 2005 -> 08:00 PM) This is a f***ed up draft. Green would have been a perfect fot for the timberwolves, sprewell is gone and all. I think Minnesota needs some instant help though. Garnett is the only one I really have any faith in on that team. Anyone that takes Green is getting a steal at this point.

QUOTE(qwerty @ Jun 28, 2005 -> 07:56 PM) You think may will be a 20-10 player? I didn't say that, I just said I don't really see any major difference between the two when they came into the league. I definitely think he'll score (20 might be a stretch for now, but I could see 15 in Charlotte), and be an okay rebounder (8-10). I don't think he's going to be a shot blocker like Brand however.

I like the McCants pick. Minnesota can use a guy that can shoot.

I don't really see a big difference between Elton Brand and Sean May.

Damn, the UNC connection in Charlotte. That's gonna be interesting. Okafor and May in the middle is just sick.

QUOTE(aboz56 @ Jun 28, 2005 -> 07:45 PM) Figured they'd go big, they don't need Green. I think teams are backing away from Green because he's not that great of a shooter. Not every high school player taken early turns out to be a stud. Did you watch any of the high school all-star games? He hit 6 3's in the McDonald's All-American game. Guys that can't shoot don't make 6 in one game.

QUOTE(WHarris1 @ Jun 28, 2005 -> 07:41 PM) Crawford IIRC That would be correct. We got Crawford and cash.

What the hell is up with the Gerald Green free-fall? Are these guys blind? The guy is an awesome athlete and from what I've seen he can shoot. I know Portland and Toronto are partly to blame (the two worst teams in the draft for the last 5 years in my opinion), but s***.

Starting staff ERA of all potential playoff teams: Baltimore- 4.45 Boston- 4.45 Cleveland- 4.12 LA- 3.61 Minnesota- 3.91 Yankees- 4.76 Texas- 4.65 White Sox- 3.67 And you have to consider that B-Mac drastically inflates that number and LA's is down a bit because of some good starts from Escobar, who may or may not be back. Notice that Boston's is very high, meaning even Schilling might not be able to drop that average a ton.

This is starting to strike me as very similar to the whole Randy Johnson thing last year. We're dreaming about adding a starting pitcher that is going to cost us a ton and probably wouldn't be back the next year. None of the teams we are going to face in the playoffs have stellar staffs, so I'm not worried about how our 4th starter is going to match up against some scrub. I'd rather not give up our top two prospects and play a bunch of money for a guy that probably isn't going to help out that much. They playoffs are such a small sample size that all Schmidt has to do is get roughed up slightly (like 4 runs in 6 innings) and the whole thing backfires. Is Schmidt's probability of providing a quality start really any higher than our current guys? Judging by their performance to this point, I'd say no. Even with his recent good starts, his ERA is 4.85. Even Contreras is at 4.15. Schmidt has had two good starts recently to drop his ERA while Jose has had two bad ones to jack it up, not to mention that he's doing it in the NL in a division with three really good pitcher's parks, including his home park. Yes, Schmidt has a better history than Jose. But we'd have to give up a bunch to see if Schmidt can turn it around, while we have Jose for nothing.

QUOTE(southsideirish71 @ Jun 28, 2005 -> 03:06 PM) Oontreras against the Redsox? Good lord. He s***s himself everytime you mention Fenway. Assuming we even face the Red Sox, he'd probably pitch game 2, meaning it'd be at the Cell.

QUOTE(qwerty @ Jun 28, 2005 -> 02:52 PM) I think they are gonna go with green, webster has nothing but a pure shot. Neither of them are gonna contribute much right away but a couple years downt he rode green is gonna be a star in the league. Obviously they would prefer Green, since he is much more atheltic and appears to be a solid outside shooter from the little I've seen of him. However, there's a chance he might not be there.

We don't need to trade for Jason Schmidt or Roger Clemens. You're basically going to use 3 guys through most of the playoffs, with one, maybe two starts for the 4th guy. For a 4th starter, Contreras works. Considering he would probably be facing the other team's 4th starter like Miller/Wakefield, Wang, or whatever scrub Baltimore or Texas throw out there, I wouldn't worrry that much. LA is the only team with a credible 4th starter, but it'd probably be Bird (doing better than he should right now) unless Escobar gets his s*** together, which doesn't seem likely.

The thing is Contreras/El Duque probably wouldn't pitch game 4. Think about how they usually schedule the playoffs. There will probably be at least one day off between games one and two, and another before they switch cities because they want to get as many games in a prime television spot as possible. That would mean that Buehrle (or possibly Garcia Garland, whoever is in the best position to pitch game one) would be able to pitch on 4 days rest, and the same for whoever starts game 2 for the 5th game. The 4th starter is usually only a factor when you get to the longer series, and they would more likely pitch game 1 or 2 in the ALCS, maybe game 3 depending on when your guys need rest. Also, when you consider that none of the other AL playoff teams have a credible 4th starter, it really isn't that important to be able to send out 4 above average starters. If we were going to make a trade, I'd rather see us acquire another power righty for the back end of the pen so we don't have to see Shingo or Vizcaino, since you know Politte, Hermanson, Marte, and Cotts will get worked almost exclusively in close games.

Draft Day Trade! According to ESPN, the Jazz have acquired the 3rd pick from Portland for picks number 6 and 27. This means Portland will probably take one of the high school forwards at 6 (Green or Webster). The Jazz are probably looking to get Deron Williams or Chris Paul.

I'd really like to see the Bulls find a way to add a pick, especially if they could somehow get a late first. Hell, even in the second, there should be some solid talent. This draft doesn't have the slam dunk picks, but it looks like there is som good depth.

QUOTE(Soxbadger @ Jun 28, 2005 -> 01:58 PM) Its really just to early to comment. Injuries play a huge role in how teams develop, and the team that can stay the healthiest at the key positions, usually do the best. That being said, I think there are 4 teams: Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, OSU, who are ahead of the pack. Purdue, Michigan State, and Penn State are just to up and down. And Wisconsin is way under rated again, Calhoun will be good, they are returning most of the WR core, and well eventhough Stocco is not great, when you have Calhoun and Bernstien you do not need a great qb. Also Wisconsin has perhaps the easiest schedule: Iowa, Michigan, Purdue at home, no OSU. Toughest away game's are at Minn and PSU (maybe UNC). Pretty much a recipe for the Rose Bowl, all they have to do is go 2-1 at home verse the the top 3, and win out the rest. SB I don't buy Wisconsin at all. I know people have biases (me with NU), but they are replacing an awful lot of people. Their D just won't be the same without their D-line, the secondary is pretty unsettled, and Stocco is not good at all. Calhoun will have to be an absolute stud behind a line with 3 new starters for them to do anything.

QUOTE(nitetrain8601 @ Jun 25, 2005 -> 12:14 PM) Purdue won't be much of anything. Brandon Kirsch is an alright QB, but he isn't like Kyle Orton when healthy. Plus they lost Taylor Stubblefield. I honestly don't see them winning more than 6 games. I think Iowa has a chance to run the table in the Big Ten. They have boatloads of talent and their schedule isn't too tough. If they get past OSU and Michigan, they'll be fine. Orton absolutely fell apart in the second half of the season. I think you overestimate how much he was really worth. Kirsch is a decent option at quarterback. Stubblefield will hurt, but they have other receivers. Their defense is going to help them a lot this year. They return every starter from a unit that allowed only 17.2 points per game. Their schedule is so easy that it's hard to imagine them losing more than 3 games. Look at this schedule: Akron at Arizona at Minnesota Notre Dame Iowa Northwestern at Wisconsin at Penn State Michigan State Illinois at Indiana Just for fun, my rankings for the Big Ten this year (I'm sure this will come up again, but oh well). There's a major drop off after the top 4. Michigan Ohio State Purdue Iowa Penn State MSU Minnesota Northwestern Wisconsin Illinois Indiana

QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Jun 27, 2005 -> 12:50 AM) That's the problem right there. Neither one of those examples you mentioned were struggling in their respective games. That's because you conveniently cut off my quote. Both players had elevated pitch counts because they both throw a lot of pitches (Colon already had 114, Zambrano had 108). And as I said, in close games most managers would rather bring in one of their better relievers than put in a starter that has thrown a lot of pitches in that game. As for the struggling thing, I'm not talking about allowing runs, I'm talking about walking a guy on four pitchers or allowing a hard hit single or two before they get yanked. I'm too lazy to check the box scores, and it doesn't really affect the argument anyways. If it's a 1-0, 2-1, or 3-2 type of game, you're not that likely to see a starter come back out. There are some exceptions (especially if the pen sucks, not the case with most of these teams), but you don't see too many 8 or 9 inning starts in the playoffs. Anyways, odds are our pitching will stop teams from getting more than 4 runs, meaning we'll be in the game the whole way and quite possibly in the lead, and that's assuming little to no offense, which isn't always the case.

We've also only had Frank for 17 games, who has a major impact on our offensive efficiency. Not only do we get another effective hitter in the order, but guys like Timo and Ozuna (until Uribe got hurt at least) are making fewer appearances in the lineup, taking out another weaker hitter. We're hitting .286 in June (he came back May 30th) with a .343 OBP, compared to .262 and .326. We've also put up four ten run games since he came off the DL, compared to 2 before. I highly doubt that it is a complete coincidence.

QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Jun 27, 2005 -> 12:36 AM) Come playoff time, I would think a manager would leave a starter in longer than he would in the regular season. During the season, one would have to worry about burning out a guy's arm. In the playoffs, it's the time to throw everything at the other team. Buehrle had to throw 9 almost perfect innings just to keep the team in it. Colon got to leave in the 7th, and their bullpen held us down for about 3 more innings. I imagine Colon would've stuck around in the playoffs and gave it to the bullpen later if need be. And Zambrano was just fresh off the DL and having his pitch count monitored. If not for that, he'd probably stay in and continue dominating. And you don't have to worry about blowing out guy's arms in the playoffs? You still don't want to grossly overwork your starters. The ratio isn't really any different. Actually in the playoffs it seems like they are more likely to come out if they are starting to struggle or getting to their upper limits because it is generally a closer game and that game means more. I know I've seen several guys get pulled in the 7th after running into moderate resistance in close games. Most managers would rather have a fresh reliever than a tiring starter no matter who it is. Your bullpens see an awful lot of work in the playoffs. Guys like Foulke and Rivera pitched 3 or 4 times in the ALCS/WS, and that isn't that uncommon.

QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Jun 27, 2005 -> 12:21 AM) We didn't beat either of those pitchers, though. They both s*** on our offense, and we beat their bullpens. That's part of the game, isn't it? Their starts were nullified by equal or superior performances from our own guys. We scored enough runs to keep us in it and won. That's the whole point of the game.

QUOTE(Milkman delivers @ Jun 27, 2005 -> 12:06 AM) I don't know about all of that. The only ace I can remember us beating up on was Rich Harden, and I think we lost that game because Buehrle imploded. It seems like our pitching duels came against guys that you don't expect to have a pitching duel with, such as Byun-Hyung Kim, Elmer Dessens, whatever that rookies' name on the Padres name was, etc. You aren't going to "rock" aces too often. If you can get 3 runs off of the top pitchers in a start, you're doing alright. We've done that. As for pitching duels, I know we won in well pitched games against Colon (think it was Buehrle) and Zambrano (Contreras) at a bare minimum. I'm really too lazy to look through box scores right now. Contreras is obviously our 4th starter in the playoffs. He won't pitch that often. Wade Miller is a scrub at this point in his career (ERA near 5)- too many injuries. I'm not worried about their offenses (we've scored more runs than LA by the way) that much because our staff is better than all of them. They're not going to be putting up a ton of runs against Buehrle, Garcia, and Garland, who they're going to see in almost every start. Those teams are allowing far more runs than us (we're at about 280, all of them are over 340 except LA, who has allowed fewer runs than us while we've scored more), which is why we're winning a lot more games. Every one of those teams has struggled with some aspect of their pitching- we're worrying about our #5 starter and our 2nd or 3rd setup men. The playoffs are fairly far away, but I'm not really worry about any matchups.