Kalapse

QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Dec 11, 2009 -> 01:40 PM) Im just putting up his stats and trying to have someone justify why the wouldnt want him and that stat intrigued me. Even the worst outfielders in baseball can go 1000 innings without making more than 3 errors. Just don't drop any routine flyballs (it's not an error if you miss it entirely) or airmail the catcher and you'll be error free. Jason Bay didn't make a single error last season and Jeremy Hermida made 1, Bay is largely regarded as a bad left fielder and Hermida may be the worst. Should-be designated hitters Carlos Lee and Ryan Braun both made 2. With some really good defensive metrics becoming more widely available across the net it's probably time we retire FLD% especially in regards to outfielders. I just hate it when the Sox acquire a guy like Alex Rios and I have to read in the paper (well the paper's website) about his down year in 2007 when he made an unacceptable 7 errors when in fact he was one of the best outfielder in baseball that season.

QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Dec 11, 2009 -> 12:50 PM) I'm interested in why you guys dont think the kid is good? What justifies your thinking? 2005 A ball 73 games .284/.377 19 for 22 in SB 06 A-AA 118 games .298/.395 58 for 70 07 AA-AAA 99 games .281/.369 39 for 46 08 AAA 94 games .296/.414 37 for 46 also has a career .997 FLD% 3 errors in 5 seasons yes he struggled his "first year" in the bigs put it was a very small sample size and it was his first cup of coffee he followed it up with a .270 .345 26 for 31 in 108 games the guys never played full time and not because he sucks but because hes stuck in new york, i see no reason why he couldnt put up .280/.360 and snag 40 bags which with his glove and the fact that hes cheap/dont have to spend money on pods or someone like that/dont have to deal away big time talent to acquire a lead off guy/ dont have to put becks in the leadoff spot. bring him in kenny, give em De Aza and Morel Now explain to me why that is at all relevant. Why the number of errors an outfielder is charged with means anything. It's high time we stop using fielding percentage as a measure of a player's defensive worth, especially an outfielder. The numbers say he's been a very good defender in his short time in the majors but that has nothing to do with FLD%.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Dec 11, 2009 -> 12:44 PM) How much can D.J. really make in arbitration? I can't imagine it's in excess of $2 million, but he has got to be on the team. Saves a lot of games with his ability to pitch many innings. You'd think a little over a million but it doesn't help the White Sox's bargaining power when the manager was calling him in the team MVP.

This really shouldn't be the precursor to any other move, he can't be counted on to give you anything in 2010.

Quentin has far from a canon arm. It's turned out to be underwhelming at best with incredibly disappointing accuracy. There's a tremendous amount of loft on his throws. His arm's only real shining moment came in his 3rd game played with the team, not much of note since then.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Dec 10, 2009 -> 11:14 PM) I'm not sure i see it. Yeah, our first exchange was a tad unclear, but the rest has been a pretty, logical back and forth. You said, that Gardner sounded a lot like Juan Pierre. I accepted the surface similarities, but instead chose to focus on Gardner's exceptional defense, and pretty modest ability to get on base for a man of his skill set. Obviously, yeah the issue is whether Gardner can hit to the gaps. because that's what the thought was on Pierre. In reality, nothing can be made of this till we try it, and honestly, i don't think it hurts us to try. I never said that. You mentioned Gardner's great speed and a hopeful metamorphosis into a gap hitter. There is no magic gap hitting, you have to be able to drive the ball into the gap, not loft it. If you're not strong enough to club the ball with some authority -- this is where I bring in Pierre's name, Jerry Owens or Reggie Willits would work as well -- you're not going to find the gaps since the outfielders will have ample time to track down the ball before it gets by them holding the bantam hitter to a single. If you can't hit the ball hard you're probably not going to hit doubles, doesn't matter how fast you are or if you work on hitting the ball between defenders, you still have to get it by them. So I never compared Gardner and Pierre's overall games, I was speaking to a larger point concerning players with great speed but no power.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Dec 10, 2009 -> 11:14 PM) Well, his statement followed an assumption that he averaged a .750 OPS. If he did, his runs above replacement from offense are zero or negligable. He would not provide us surplus value playing RF full time (using Fangraph's method) given his current guaranteed salary over that timeframe. I doubt it would make him the MOST overpaid RF in baseball, but yeah we would be paying him more than he's worth You're right, I skipped over the .750 part, my appologies to DBAH0. If he can't get back to at least his '08 offensive production (which is what I was assuming) then yeah, he's making too damn much. If we assume he's not going to revert back to any semblance of the hitter he was from '06-'08 then it doesn't matter what position he's playing.

QUOTE (SoxAce @ Dec 10, 2009 -> 11:05 PM) I guess he could be using the ol' "eyes" argument, though I won't make too much fun of that as your eyes don't lie with what you see at times. Except he mentioned defensive metrics. His ratings in the Tango Fan Poll are pretty good as well.

QUOTE (Real @ Dec 10, 2009 -> 10:51 PM) More from my Yanks friend: His UZR/150 in CF in 628 INN was 15.4, he was a +9 in plus/minus and his arm rated as a +3, these are well above average numbers. Not sure what metrics he's looking at.

QUOTE (DBAHO @ Dec 10, 2009 -> 10:45 PM) Ok so say Rios puts up a .750 OPS for the next 5 seasons. Would you rather pay a guy $12M a season to put up those kind of offensive numbers in CF or in RF? Because if he does that in RF, he'll argubly be one of the most overpaid players in baseball relative to his position with his output. At least in CF, that kind of offense is a little more acceptable. That's why if the Sox traded for Gardner and had him starting at CF, the Sox could have one of the worst offensive outfields in baseball I'd hate to say it for 2010. Really? In 2008 when he put up his modest .291/.337/.461/.798 stat line, .350 wOBA and super elite 27.5 UZR/150 that placed him 3rd among RF with a 54.7 RAR. Drop that insane UZR to a more easily attainable mark and he's still around 44 in RAR which would be the 7th highest among all RF in 2009 and worth around ~$20M according to Fangraph's calculations. If he hits like he did in '08 and fields like he did in '06 then he's an incredibly valuable RF.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Dec 10, 2009 -> 10:36 PM) I don't see any use in arguing your point, Kalapse, because i'm inclined to say i agree with you. Players like Gardner trouble me, because their main skill sets is there legs, and speed can kill a team when it's misused. I just think that as a fairly, cheap left-handed option, he might be able to find a decent place here. I'm not saying it's a done deal, hell, generally, i hate players with Gardners skillset, but even i can't deny that, that defense can have a huge impact on his team. Especially, coupled with his ability to get on base, at a decent rate. You're misinterpreting everything I'm posting. This is what I had a problem with: QUOTE (jphat007 @ Dec 10, 2009 -> 08:35 PM) If Rios isn't in center field he has next to no value. Certainly not at 10 mil a year That's some crazy hyperbole right there.

QUOTE (jphat007 @ Dec 10, 2009 -> 08:35 PM) If Rios isn't in center field he has next to no value. Certainly not at 10 mil a year QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Dec 10, 2009 -> 10:20 PM) This has become the thread about the misperception that Rios playing RF makes his contract a bad one. Having him play RF justifies his deal more than anything else. I'll write it again....RIOS IS AMONG THE BEST DEFENSIVE RF'S IN ALL OF BASEBALL -+60.5 UZR in RF over the last 6 seasons. Apparently great defense and an elite arm from a corner outfielder is worthless.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Dec 10, 2009 -> 10:00 PM) It means he's not the the same player as Juan Pierre. If you want pertinent offensive stats look at their OBP's. Gardner has shown the ability to get on base, even though he's young, he has shown some very encouraging signs in that department. He more then makes up for his lacking power skills with his speed and defense. Talk about missing the f***ing point. Despite the fact that it's often thrown out their early in the career of bantam speedsters elite speed doesn't really lead to increased extra base hits, you have to be able to hit the ball hard and over people's heads. Juan Pierre is about as fast as they come but he was only able to turn so many singles into doubles. I don't see where I was addressing any other facet of their games.

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Dec 10, 2009 -> 09:41 PM) He's a much better defender then Pierre. He's absurdly good in the field. What does that have to do with top rate speed leading to increased extra base hits?

QUOTE (Thunderbolt @ Dec 10, 2009 -> 09:32 PM) The Kid is one of the fasted runners in the game. He can make an extra base hit out of anything. Assuming we teach him to hit to the gaps, he'll be fine. Just like Juan Pierre.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Dec 8, 2009 -> 11:04 AM) What do you guys think about picking up Brandon Lyon? He's supposedly asking for 2 years, $9M and he'll probably get it.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Dec 5, 2009 -> 06:14 PM) Then you're just giving Boras what he wants. Perhaps not. The latest is that he's looking for 5 years and $65M. I'm sure teams are lining up already at that price.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 9, 2009 -> 06:13 PM) Beane values defense very highly. No one is paying a premium price for good defensive players, so Beane is going to find said defensive players and plug them into his lineup, hoping they'll hit (and Rajai Davis was one of those guys that did hit this year). Ryan Sweeney, Mark Ellis, Jack Hannahan.

The Rangers signed Rich Harden to a 1 year, $7.5M deal with an $11.5M team option for 2011.

QUOTE (MattZakrowski @ Dec 9, 2009 -> 04:52 PM) Not doubting you, but where have you seen this? Could be a number of places, I'll try to find it.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 9, 2009 -> 04:41 PM) I'm just telling you the opinion of people in KC. They are happy to bid him bye bye. If we acquire him, so be it. I won't be against him from day one. I just think he's old news. What fans are these? The fans that voted in the Tango poll seem to think he's great out there.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Dec 9, 2009 -> 04:11 PM) I would still prefer that money being spent by another team taking a chance on his health. We have criticized signing players in the past when they have injury issues, but now we forgive Crisp and ignore the healthy Pods? I don't agree with that at all. We already had this discussion, it seems you've completely forgotten all it. If anyone's ignoring anything it's you. Just a few weeks ago: QUOTE (Kalapse @ Nov 24, 2009 -> 03:13 PM) You don't ignore it, you weigh the odds of each player contributing in 2010 then look at the other aspects of their game and the contractual demands of each. You don't ignore anything. Given the shortcomings and exorbitant contractual demands of Podsednik KW is looking at other options and Crisp is a good buy-low candidate. And 5 months of injury free baseball from Podsednik does not make him "healthy", he's still as big an injury risk as ever once he gets that paycheck. One of the big reasons the Sox let him go in the first place was due to concerns over his dedication to the game and unwillingness to play through minor injuries.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 9, 2009 -> 04:00 PM) I think some of you are overvaluing Coco's defense. Rios I admit looked mighty fluid in center fielder and is a good glove. Coco did nothing in KC to excite people about his defense and his arm is not good and will assuredly be worse with the shoulder problems. Or was his arm weakened by an injured shoulder and the corrective procedure will improve his arm strength? I don't know. His 'arm' numbers got significantly worse in recent years, before 2007 they were about average. Can Podsednik play centerfield really at all? No. Can Crisp? Yes. Do they both have bad arms? Yes. You say he didn't impress anyone in Kansas City with his defense yet he's doing incredibly well in Tango's Fan Poll. A 4.4 out of 5 in reaction/instincts, a 4.6/5 in acceleration/first few steps. He's averaging around a 4.4/5 in the categories that don't include arm strength, seems like he's impressing someone. Meanwhile take a look at Podsednik's ratings. Crisp's career UZR numbers are substantially better than Podsednik's and we all got to see his complete lack of natural ability and headiness over the years. Podsednik is incredibly awkward out there.

QUOTE (jasonxctf @ Dec 9, 2009 -> 03:55 PM) Virtually identical offensive players. Crisp .277 lifetime avg, 30 years old, 74% SB success rating Pods .277 lifetime avg, 33 years old, 75% SB success rating So do you want the older guy, coming off a career year with poor defense who is a fan favorite or Do you want the younger guy, coming off of injuries, better defense who may be slightly cheaper I think this could go either way. Since 2006: Crisp: 83/102 in SB = 81% Pods: 94/135 in SB = 70% Since 2005 Crisp has been picked off 12 times, 22 in his career. 12 of the 22 were picked off caught stealing. (much more forgivable, usually going on first move.) In 2009 alone Pods was picked off 11 times, 53 in his career. 17 of the 53 were picked off caught stealing. There's a significant difference in base running, defense and price. There's no reason to believe that Crisp will only be "slightly" cheaper when all reports have Podsednik asking for a multi-year deal worth at least $6M annually. Crisp is going to get a very low base salary for 2010 since he's coming for 2 shoulder injuries.

QUOTE (La Marr Hoyt HOF @ Dec 9, 2009 -> 03:33 PM) 30bps meaningful, but dont discount the fielding ... Matsui is toast, JD's numbers would increase if he was simply DHing like Godzilla, and most importantly, is not nearly as sexy. Might also be cheaper -- not sure about that Really? Because the opposite tends to happen. Matsui probably is toast in the field but so is Jermaine and only 1 of them is willing to accept a primary designated hitting role. So Matsui is the better hitter, left handed, will bring in all new revenue streams through Japanese advertisers and unlike JD he is actually willing to limit his time in the outfield. Sounds like an easy decision to me.