Kalapse

There's a 60/40 chance Saito is ineffective next season IMO. His peripherals from last year are scary to say the least not to mention his age and injuries that have popped up over the past 2 years. Still, it's a nice gamble for Atlanta.

QUOTE (Pants Rowland @ Dec 3, 2009 -> 02:14 PM) Reading through this and several other threads in recent weeks, I am amazed at how many posters would consider trading the likes of Floyd, Danks, Thornton, and even Hudson. In my mind, the way to make the 2010 Sox a serious WS contender is to complement that core strength rather than weaken it just to marginally improve the offense. Sox bats were miserable to watch last year but even more frustrating was the defense and middle relief (particularly Linebrink). There were way too many games lost because shoddy defense would result in an extra run or two here and there. Outstanding efforts on the mound were wasted with failures in the field and late in the game on the hill. In my opinion, it will be defensive signings like Vizquel and strengthening of the bullpen that will be the key to winning a division (and hopefully more) far more than whoever they get to DH. Most offensive stars can be replaced save an elite few, but you can never have too much pitching and defense. Marginal offensive upgrade? People are throwing around the names Floyd, Danks and Hudson in possible deals for the likes of Adrian Gonzalez and BJ Upton, they're not exactly aiming low. One is an elite offensive player and elite defender at 1B and the other is an elite defender in CF (top 3 since moving to the position) and has tremendous offensive upside (should be a good leadoff hitter regardless). These would be incredible upgrades to the club and either player would be under team control for multiple seasons. Daniel Hudson's value is through the roof right now, if the Kenny can parlay that tremendous value into a great young ballplayer I'll be absolutely ecstatic because believe it or not I don't agree that the 400 or so innings that Omar Vizquel spends on the field this year will be anywhere near as valuable as adding a sure thing to this highly questionable lineup that finished in the bottom 3 of the AL in a sub .500 season last year.

Jermaine Dye in a Cubs jersey would be hilarious, it would keep Fukudome in CF -- a position he really can not play -- and add one of the worst defenders in baseball (regardless of position) to an outfield that already has Alfonso Soriano in LF. Comedy would surely ensue. That could very well be the worst defensive outfield of all time.

With as much attention as there is on DeRosa right now he should be able to get a lucrative multi-year deal. I wonder if people realize he's 35 years old and is a man without a position.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 3, 2009 -> 09:30 AM) 3 years? Wow. $18M total. That's an incredible haul for Polanco. I'm curious as to what Boras' asking price is for Adrian Beltre if the Phillies would rather shell out $18M for a 34 year old Placido Polanco who had a down year at the plate in 2009 and hasn't played the position since 2005 and a total of 153 INN since 2003.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 2, 2009 -> 08:17 PM) I was mainly recalling the past two seasons. Howell's ERA and ERA+ are better, but Thornton's peripherals trounce Howell in pretty much every category. I'd still probably take Howell above Thornton if I were building a team, but they're both damn fine pitchers and I don't think there's a wrong choice with either one of them. So, if you actually look at it, I don't think I really got pwned. If I'm deciding who's been the better pitcher over the past few years and there's a near full point difference in FIP between the two, personally I'll go with the guy who's relied substantially less on his defense even if he does trail in a misleading stat like ERA and a very small difference in average leverage index isn't going to sway me (something like a .13 difference in gmLI over the past 2 seasons and nearly identical in WPA.) But if the Rays come to me and offer Howell straight up for Thornton I'd probably bite though there's something troubling about a setup man with an 86 MPH fastball and a 4+ BB/9.

QUOTE (qwerty @ Dec 2, 2009 -> 04:24 PM) To be fair thornton is 33 while on the other hand howell is merely 25. A case could be made for howell. Well Thornton's coming up on his age 33 season and Howell on his age 27. This way it doesn't look quite as drastic.

I wasn't really looking to 'pwn' Wite, since I paid $30 for a year's subscription to BR P-I I'm going to look to use it as often as possible. This seemed like as good a time as any, can't let cool s*** like this go to waste. Report Created on Baseball-Reference.com

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 2, 2009 -> 03:30 AM) Matt Thornton is one of the best left handed relievers in the game of baseball. That alone makes his value astronomically high to every team in baseball, including the White Sox. To acquire him, you would have to be getting a magnificent package in return. Upton is the type of player you look to acquire, but considering the Rays have JP Howell, who is one of the few left handed relievers in baseball I'd rank above Thornton, he doesn't have the value to the Rays that he does to the Sox or quite a few other teams around the league. The Rays do not need to trade for a closer that badly. Ranks among lefty relievers with at least 100 IP over the past 2 years: FIP Thornton: #1 2.58 (#4 among all relievers Broxton, Rivera, Papelon are 1,2,3) Howell: #4 3.51 (#30 among all relievers) WHIP: Thornton: #1 1.038 Howell: #5 1.160 WAR Thornton: #1 4.4 Howell: #3 2.6 ERA+ Thornton: #4 170 Howell: #2 179 (Scott Downs is #1 at 185) BAA Thornton: #5 .207 Howell: #1 .195 OPSA Thornton: #1 .573 Howell: #4 .600 HR/9 Thornton: #6 0.64 (Joe Beimel is #1 at 0.43) Howell: #10 0.75 K/BB Thornton: #1 4.21 Howell: #13 2.38 K/9 Thornton: #2 10.57 (Mike Gonzalez is #1 at 11.17) Howell: #4 9.86 BB/9 Thornton: #3 2.51 (Darren Oliver is #1 at 2.36) Howell: #18 4.15

QUOTE (chw42 @ Dec 2, 2009 -> 11:41 AM) Up till this past postseason, Vlad has been horrible in the playoffs. So it's not only us... 2008?

QUOTE (chw42 @ Dec 2, 2009 -> 11:46 AM) $7 million for him? I don't think so. Not in this market. It's only a 1 year commitment and truth is; injuries aside, he hasn't had a bad year since 2000. Assuming he stays healthy odds are they just signed a top flight closer for $7M, they believe they're ready to win now -- and with that rotation who can blame them? -- and the acquisition of Wagner puts them in a good place going forward since they still have all their chips in hand and one of their biggest needs filled.

If you're going to rank Aaron Hill near the top then I need to see the names Ben Zobrist and Robinson Cano as well.

So in the end only 10 Type A free agents were offered arbitration: Marco Scutaro Rafael Betancourt Jose Valverde Mike Gonzalez Rafael Soriano Matt Holliday Jason Bay Billy Wagner Chone Figgins John Lackey And 13 Type B free agents: Ivan Rodriguez Rod Barajas Gregg Zaun Adrian Beltre Mark DeRosa Marlon Byrd Justin Duchscherer Carl Pavano Jason Marquis Joel Pineiro Brian Shouse Fernando Rodney Brandon Lyon They have until December 7th to decide whether or not to accept the offer of arbitration. If they decline and are signed by another club all Type A free agents will net their original club 2 draft picks, 1 being a 1st round (unless he's signed by a team with a top 16 pick then the former club will receive a 2nd round pick as compensation) and the other being a compensator pick between rounds 1 and 2. A type B free agent will net their former club a comp pick between rounds 1 and 2.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Dec 1, 2009 -> 07:36 PM) Finally saw Boondock Saints 2...f***ing terrible. I should have walked out. The people I saw it with all agreed, although the crowd was really energized and into the movie. But, imo, complete garbage and one of the worse movies I've seen over the past few years. Hardly surprising given the abortion that was the original.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 1, 2009 -> 08:45 PM) Maybe it was more based on "expectation" and the numbers Beltre put up offensively before going to the M's. He had that one, huge breakout season and parlayed it into a big payday but never came close to duplicating those numbers....defensively, he's better than Crede, there's no question about that aspect of his game, his arm strength, etc. Sexson was the worst of all of those, although Washburn in close. On second thought, perhaps Silva! Vidro had some good years at least offensively. Johjima was more about the ownership group and their commitment to continue to "sell" to the Japanese market and make further inroads, but that was a reach. When you look at the advantage we SHOULD have over the other markets (Detroit is being forced to sell off Edwin Jackson and/or Granderson because they were spending beyond their means) in our division, it's comparable to the LA Angels situation. The only wildcards are whether the Twins can keep Mauer AND Morneau with their new stadium and whether the Indians will bounce back with a new manager. That's because his deal wasn't exorbitant, if he were paid fully based on that one huge season he would have gotten significantly more. His 2004 season was one of the best single season performances by a 3B in baseball history and he only got $64M in free agency, Carlos Beltran got $119M that same offseason and just one year later Konerko got $60M. He's been the best defensive 3B in the game over the past 5 seasons, put up very good offensive numbers considering his home ballpark and brought plenty more to the table including his underrated speed and athleticism. You'll have a hard time finding many Mariners fans that will complain about that Adrian Beltre contract. If he were expected to produce every year like he did in '04 then he would have made twice as much. Vidro only spent 2 years in Seattle, his first year he put up a .775 OPS as the full time DH, he was released by August of 2008 due to being one of the worst players in baseball. Don't underrate that Miguel Batista deal either, they gave him $25M over 3 years. He was in the rotation for 1.5 years and didn't manage a sub 1.5 WHIP in any of the 3 seasons in Seattle.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Dec 1, 2009 -> 08:41 PM) Thank God. Now get Redmond out of the division and all backup catchers that kill us are gone. Redmond is as good as gone. Unfortunately Jose Morales' reign of terror has just begun. He hit something like .550 with a walkoff against us last season.

QUOTE (knightni @ Dec 1, 2009 -> 07:26 PM) The thing about the Angels, though, is that they play in the smallest division in baseball and they are clearly the largest market and have the most payroll flexibility to fanbase in that division. Barring a run or two by Seattle, they should win that division every year almost by default. Comparison: (2008 Payroll) Angels 119,216,333 - Tigers 138,685,197 Mariners 117,993,982 - White Sox 121,152,667 Rangers 68,239,551 - Indians 78,970,067 A's - 47,967,126 - Twins 62,182,767 xxxxxxxxxxxx - Royals 58,245,500 The Ms had some bad contracts (Bedard, Beltre) to balloon their payroll up, but LAA has a definite advantage in overall talent in that division. Beltre's contract was not a bad one, he earned every penny. Richie Sexson? Horrible contract. Kenji Johjima? Bad contract. Jarrod Washburn? Very Bad contract. Jose Vidro? Stupid and bad. Carlos Silva? Ridiculously bad. Miguel Batista? One of the worst imaginable. Adrian Beltre was one of the few to actually earn his money.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 1, 2009 -> 06:50 PM) I just read that the Marlins did not offer Kiko Calero arbitration, he would be a great upgrade over Dotel(10.4 K/9 innings, 1.95 ERA). He's going to be in very high demand. Won't be cheap.

YES Scutaro Betancourt Valverde M. Gonzalez R. Soriano Holliday NO Dye Dotel Gregg Polanco Tejada Hawkins Cabrera (can't) Damon Wolf O. Hudson Soriano and Gonzalez were both offered arb

QUOTE (knightni @ Dec 1, 2009 -> 05:10 PM) The problem with Freddy in '06 wasn't that he was "worthless." The problem was that he had a "tired arm", because of the amount of innings that he pitched in the '05 regular and postseason and the '06 WBC. The guy pitched himself into fatigue, ineffectiveness and eventually, surgery. People were mostly frustrated with his lack of effectiveness in '06, without realizing that he was pitching in pain and possibly pitching injured. He pitched much of the '06 season with a torn labrum, thank god the Phillies didn't give him a physical when they acquired him.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ Dec 1, 2009 -> 05:06 PM) Ranger is talking about how people were jumping off of bridges saying that the Sox got ripped off for Garcia. Those past threads have to be pretty comical. I know that there were only a handful of us in support of the Floyd acquisition. I think in the future the Brandon Allen trade will be sort of like this. After Allen was traded there were people on this board saying that Allen was a future All-Star. Personally, I loved the deal. It got an obviously injured Freddy Garcia out of town for a couple young pitchers, what's not to like?

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Dec 1, 2009 -> 04:46 PM) Vlad Guerreo over J Dye? Not at this point in VG's career, but read the story... he is loved by Ozzie. I just hope that is worthless scribe tripe. What exactly is the difference between the current points in their careers? Neither has any business playing the outfield everyday but one is willing to accept a full time DH position and the other is not. They've also put up nearly identical production over the past 2 years with the only real difference being that Vlad missed some time last year. I'd say Vlad has considerably more upside as a hitter.

QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Dec 1, 2009 -> 04:25 PM) As I said in the original post, the scenario makes sense if you already have a new closer ready for next year. Before jumping all over me people should read what I actually wrote. The reason I bring this up is an organization with large reserves of farm pitching talent can do things like this. Keeping Dotel over Jenks frees up a million and arguably gives you the reliever of greater worth. Arguably--as in it would create a ton of arguments here. But if the Sox really are on a tight budget this offseason, they could use that extra million. Dotel has a live arm and has been steadily what he is. Jenks has been changing as a reliever every year, less Ks at first........ and last year,frankly, less outs. I think Dotel is the kind of reliever we'll only miss once he's gone..but that's me. Oh, I read it, you mentioned some player in the system that would be capable of closing, sounds like a huge question mark to me. There are very few teams that would trade an established closer and give the job to a prospect with no real big league experience, regardless of his talent. If we had a young relief pitcher that pitched and succeeded in a major league setup role last year that would be a different story and also a rather pointless hypothetical. 1 million dollars isn't going to change anything, this isn't a hard cap. It's a self imposed budget with considerable leeway.

QUOTE (Princess Dye @ Dec 1, 2009 -> 04:11 PM) If there was someone on the farm who could close, it would've been fun to do the following: Offer Dotel arb. If he gets paid elsewhere, take the compensation pick and keep Jenks If he does not get picked up by another team, you keep him and then trade Jenks for a prospect. Except you couldn't do that because Dotel wouldn't hesitate to accept. There's absolutely no way in hell he'd decline arbitration. With most teams hurting financially, a supply of arms on the free agent market and relief pitcher salaries trending downward in recent years he's not going to get a sweeter deal than 1 year, $6.5M anywhere else. I'd also take Jenks closing for $7.5M and a kid taking Dotel's job for the minimum than Dotel at $6.5M, some huge question mark at closer and an extra half-assed prospect you got for Jenks.