3E8

Now there is potential for the Detroit, Kansas City, and Cleveland starting rotations to be completely right-handed on opening day.

Looks like Detroit got him by upping to 5/$80.

QUOTE (DirtySox @ Dec 13, 2012 -> 07:15 PM) Tigers upped their offer. Damn. Here's the only instance where I'm rooting for the Cubs.

What was wrong with Trumbo in the 2nd half of last season? To give you an idea of how bad he struggled, Alexei Ramirez had six more extra base hits than Trumbo did in that timespan.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Dec 13, 2012 -> 12:30 AM) I'm not sure it's set in stone that he will have a bad year. The history is there, but how are we so sure that this Rios is the same Rios from a few years ago? If you watched him last year, Rios seemed like a different kind of player. His performance was more consistent (go look at his monthly splits, as opposed to a year like 2010). He didn't disappear in the second half like he did in 2010. Not only that, his personality on the field and in the dugout changed. It seemed like he cared that he would have an awful at bat or that he didn't do his job correctly. Maybe he'll screw with mechanics in the off-season or get off to a bad start in 2013 and have a crappy year. Or maybe he won't. I just don't think it's that obvious that Rios will be bad next season. There are a multitude of things that have changed about him since 2011 and I don't think it's fair to judge him solely based off of his performance from 2009-2011. I agree with you. This time, we actually have specific changes to point to which explain why his batting and fielding improved. Rios worked with Manto to completely change his batting stance. And he moved to right field for which he is better suited and more comfortable. As long as those things don't change, I don't see why they should, Rios will have another productive year. That seems more logical than expecting Rios to under-perform because the year ends in an odd number. This said, I understand why he would be the first outfielder to be traded and I would not be opposed to it.

I disliked the Chris Young trade for Cliff Pennington earlier in the offseason too. Kevin Towers is confusing me.

Those leg sweeps he would do on ground balls.

Rays also get Odorizzi, Montgomery, and Leonard. Rob Neyer tweeted it's the worst trade in baseball history. Over on a Royals board, some people are denouncing their fandom.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Dec 9, 2012 -> 04:03 AM) He's 29. You might get 2 more good seasons out of him before he gets into Juan Pierre territory. Don't you think that's too harsh? Bourn has established himself as a 5-win player over the past four years. Pierre did not come close to that. This research shows that speedy guys (not speed itself, but speedy players) age well compared to other players. Even if you don't take that into account, and just knock off the standard half-win per year from the level Bourn has established during his prime, and that's 15 wins over the next four years (4.5+4+3.5+3). Still a productive starter. I'm not sure the years or money Bourn will eventually get, but maybe the contract won't be as bad as many seem to think.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 7, 2012 -> 01:45 PM) The problem with your logic is when a team is trying to compete, then actual production is going to be more important than surplus value. It's always more important, and I never said it wasn't. QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 7, 2012 -> 01:45 PM) Why do teams pay big money for free agents who will most likely provide less value than their cost? Because they have a given need and future/potential surplus value doesn't lead to wins right now. I don't understand what you mean when you talk about surplus value leading to wins right now. Surplus value is the difference between what a player's talent would cost on the open market and what they are actually being paid. It can be used to determine what a player who isn't a free agent might be worth in a trade. QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 7, 2012 -> 01:45 PM) Teams that want to compete next year and need pitching will run into a problem at some point. The market will continue to shrink and guys like Floyd be in greater demand. I mentioned that this could be a factor in helping us get more for Floyd. But typically teams won't overpay much for a player of Floyd's talent level like they would for a perennial All-Star player. If a team is trying harder to be competitive, there are free agent options better than Floyd, and several others equal or close to his talent whom they could just offer contracts to instead of taking on a contract plus offering a prospect. QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 7, 2012 -> 01:45 PM) I understand we won't get a ton for Floyd, but as usual with starting pitching, it's a supply and demand issue and we should be able to get something of value for him at some point. This means we are basically in agreement.

QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Dec 7, 2012 -> 12:25 PM) Some questions: What teams are gearing up to be the losers of the Greinke derby? What would these teams then have to offer us prospect-wise for Floyd? Perhaps it wouldn't turn out to be just Floyd going out....but just curious if there are any names I should know Unfortunately, only one year of Floyd at $9.5M doesn't offer much surplus value. The estimate surplus value of a top 100 prospect is well over $10M, and Floyd is nowhere near that. Maybe the scarcity and high price of free agents bumps it up some, but the chances are low Floyd himself could bring back an exciting prospect. It saddens me as co-member of the Gavin fan club with wite.

Early returns for Zero Dark Thirty are good. 100%, 8.8/10 on RT with 19 reviews. I anticipate it will be my top movie of 2012. If I had to pick my favorite currently, it's probably Moonrise Kingdom.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 7, 2012 -> 11:29 AM) As a general statement, I don't like the idea of Floyd straight up for Saltalamacchia. That is a 180 IP starting pitcher for a guy who is going to get maybe 300 PAs. I even like Saltalamacchia, and would consider trading Floyd to Boston with Salatalamacchia as part of the package, but they need to include a prospect or two as well. How would you use Salty? I think he would be redundant on our team. He's very similar offensively to Flowers. They both have the same career wRC+, 88. Flowers' advantage is that he's good defensively and over the next two years will be somewhere between $5M-$10M cheaper. I don't think there is enough of a platoon advantage between him and Flowers considering the defense and cost to be worthwhile strictly at catcher. Flowers actually has a higher wOBA against RH with the Sox, and was significantly better against RH pitching when he played in Charlotte.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 02:58 PM) What data supports that claim? Lots of players are much better at one position than others. They are, but not typically when the positions in question are 2B/3B. The positions share many of the same skills needed to be successful. There are differences, more range helpful at 2B, better arm helpful at 3B, etc.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 02:33 PM) I would rely more on one season's worth of numbers at the position he's going to play over career numbers at positions he isn't going to play. QUOTE (chw42 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 02:33 PM) I get that, but I'm not sure it's fair to say he's a bad defensive 3B just because he's a bad defensive SS and 2B. There's a huge difference in the demands of the positions, specifically range. It's that his ratings are consistently so low (at least -10 defense runs per year at SS/2B/1B), not just slightly below average, everywhere else that it would be unlikely he's significantly better at one position. Plus, the aging curve for fielding starts to decline earlier than for batting. We'll see.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 02:25 PM) UZR of 3.9 over 1110 innings at 3B in his career. That's acceptable and almost a full season's worth of sample size. You need more than one season for reliability. Combine the career 3B rating with negative ratings at all other infield positions. Same result over at B-R.com with defensive runs saved method. He's below average defensively.

QUOTE (GoGoSox2k2 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 01:46 PM) i know Bill James' numbers are not the end all be all, however where did the talk come from that Keppinger was a liability on defense? I am not doubting or agreeing just wondering If you use advanced fielding metrics as one should, with as large a sample as possible, Keppinger has negative ratings. Rogers used them incorrectly, picking a small 50-game sample which is unreliable.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 01:38 PM) He'll be starting at 3rd for the Sox next year, and for about 40% of what Youk would have received if they picked up his option. Yes, he'll be starting for us, but has been pretty much a replacement level player. His career bWAR was negative coming into his breakout season at age 32. But if the money isn't bad I can't complain.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 01:33 PM) Ugh. So not thrilled with the years. Me either. Seems absurd for a bench player. But let's wait to see how much money.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 11:40 AM) $90M plus say $7M for Beckham and De Aza is $97M. If the payroll is at least that much, that leaves at least $10M of head room. And if you can trade Floyd for Salty or the like, and get a few more million, that should be more than enough to get Youk or AJ or maybe both. If they want to. But that $97M is only 12 players. Viciedo will be at least $2M. Then the $0.5M league minimum to Quintana, Reed, Flowers, etc., and the head room is gone.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 10:14 AM) I think "not that strong" was in reference to his defense Yep, it was. Sorry, my post was poorly constructed because I went right into being gloomy about his offense and didn't expound on his defense. His zone ratings as an infielder are very negative overall. Although several of those innings played were at SS, which is more difficult.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 5, 2012 -> 09:53 AM) Not that strong A bit of an understatement. Keppinger had a career year at age 32 with a BABIP well above his average. Chances he comes close to what he did offensively are slim. Likeliest scenario is an average bat who is a sieve in the field.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 11:28 PM) Therefore, if we can't find a short-term solution in free agency, then overpaying for a long-term solution on the trade market may be the best route to go. Obviously that's easier said then done, but 3B is by far our biggest organizational need IMO and I'd be willing to pay a premium for a guy that can fill it for the next 3 - 4 years. I don't know if overpaying is ever the best route to go. Certainly not now, when the marginal value of a win for us is still fairly low. We have seen overpaying on the trade market and it means a team with mostly veterans and large contracts with little flexibility, like right now. You need some young, cost-controlled talent to build a strong team. If we overpay on the trade market with what little we have in the farm system to fill 3B, we are just robbing from a different position and our already weak minor league system as a whole.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Dec 4, 2012 -> 09:31 PM) Signing Hanrahan isn't a terrible move given the market for 3B. Signing the Pirates closer to play 3B for us might be a terrible move. In seriousness, Hannahan isn't a starting-caliber 3B, but very close. Given the lack of options out there, it wouldn't be a move worth getting upset over. His defense is very good, that's where his value is. He's definitely below average with the bat, but it's a third lefty in the lineup. I imagine he'd sign for somewhere around $1.5M on a 1-year deal and be worth almost two wins over a full season if Herm could keep him healthy.

QUOTE (BlackBetsy @ Jul 29, 2012 -> 09:07 AM) Also - somebody mentioned how much more the Tigers paid for Sanchez than the Sox paid for Liriano. A couple of points - Turner is a career 7K/9 pitcher in AA and AAA with a 3+ ERA. He's not the second coming of even Porcello. He's a rotation filler. Have no idea based on raw stats why he was ranked at #22 overall. I guess he's 21 and there is room for improvement, but his stats don't jump off the sheet at you like a Brandon McCarthy's did. His best feature thus far in the minors seems to be avoiding the HR. However, he's thrown 25 innings in the majors and given up 24 runs (23 earned). Small sample size for sure, but I'm not sure why he's ranked as highly as he is. You touched on the reason for his high ranking a bit, his age. When you consider his age for the level he was playing at last season, his numbers become more impressive. Almost half of his starts at AA were as a 19-yo. He was one of the youngest players in the Eastern League, yet performing better than average. Since he has much more time where his skill should be improving and he's already shown to be good, BA slotted him high on their top 100.