[Jerry Owens]

Jerry Owens was named this season's first Venezuelan League player of the week.

 

He is hitting 18 for 36 for a .500 average.

[2005 AFL]

Randar, isn't the field in AZ worse than most of the minor league fields?  I thought I remember seeing something about that on the other WS board.

 

Winston-Salem has a pretty decent infield for their level, but it's still not all that great. I saw Josh Fields almost eat one in the face due to a slight at the edge of the grass, but I digress.

 

The fields they use int he Arizona league are akin to the fields in Low-A. Again, SS's who get through a full season at one of those levels with fewer that 20 errors either can't get to anything or they are very very good.

[Whatever happened to Jason Dellaero]

I haven't Valido, so I can't offer much up in that regard.  I do know that Dellaero was a guy that you had to see many times to fully appreciate him.  He didn't throw hard over to 1B unless he had to.  He didn't seem to have a lot of flash until he made a play that he had no business making.  He was very fundamentally sound, but could go in the hole and throw with the best of them.  He would routinely field balls that were headed into CF, spin and throw a perfect strike to the 1B to nail the runner.  It looked pretty effortless.

 

Valido and Dellaero are similar, but Jason had a better arm, could really unload when he had to, like you said.

 

I think Valido is going to be a it more steady, probably make fewer errors than Dellaero would have, but he won't get to quite as many balls.

 

That said, Valido still has Gold Glove ability at SS. As always, you either have to be silly with acrobatic plays or hit enough to get noticed that way to win a gold glove, but I think he'd be a top defensive SS in the majors today if they needed one at the major league level...

[Jerry Owens]

Than its obviously Podsenick.  If your asking who the better leadoff hitter is... if your asking for the better hitter than its Sizemore.

 

 

BINGO!

 

 

Sheesh... it ain't rocket science... if they're both on your team, who bats leadoff? Doesn't that define who the better leadoff hitter is?

[Jerry Owens]

Ok -- are you trying to tell me homeruns, the best thing that a hitter can do in a given AB, are bad?  I'll take homers wherever they come in the lineup, and it's even better when you can get them from a guy who also has a .348 OBP. 

Ok, so now it's if both were on the same team...  Flip, flop, flip, flop.

 

If I had to choose one or the other to be my leadoff man of my team, I choose Sizemore.  Pretty easy call for me.

Offensive contributions?  Umm, well, when comparing Scott Podsednik and Grady Sizemore, I see that they're AVG and OBP are similar, while Sizemore slugs over 130 more than Podsednik does.  But right -- Scotty makes the pitcher throw over a couple times, and he steals bases, so he's the better leadoff hitter. 

 

Instant offense with a homer?  Nah, I'll take the single, and then the possibility that Podsednik might steal a base, and all the while, put pressure on the defense.  Because, a homer doesn't put any pressure on the defense -- it puts a run on the board, but who gives a damn, right?  :rolly

 

You calling someone ignorant...  that's funny.

 

Turn the SB's into X-base hits and CS into outs and come back again with those numbers... who's ignorant? That's what I thought... Then again, you can't measure it, so it doesn't exist... Say hello to Carl Everett in church on Sunday, hanks!

 

Of course those extra 69:18 SB ratio doesn't equate at all to extra base-hits, does it?

 

If Pods stays healthy, he steals 80 bases at an80% rate or above and is one of the top 5 or 6 leadoff men in the entire game...

 

but hey, I guess win shares and OPS+ doesn't show that, so it can't possibly be true...

[Jerry Owens]

You said a certain sample of games for Roberts made him look "mediocre at best".  I compared them to Pods' second half numbers and showed that Roberts mediocre numbers were actually better than Podsednik's. 

 

Now you're throwing in Roberts' career numbers.  I don't understand why.  We were looking at a very specific sample which you labeled at or below average.  There is no need to see how well the sample fits Roberts' previous numbers or where the outlier is or what Roberts career projects to be.  All we are concerned with is that you indirectly called Podsednik's second half mediocre, while at the same time arguing that a large part of our offensive underproduction was due to him not playing.

 

Also, when I said the thing about 15 other guys being better leadoff hitters than Pods, I said nothing about who was the best value, or guys who I should exclude because they would be a better 2-hole hitter instead.  You added that in yourself!  I am simply looking at other players around both leauges who had the majority of their at bats come from the leadoff position, who I would rather have leading off for our team than Scott.  Stolen bases are obviously a huge factor in your definition of a leadoff hitter.  I used to think that way too, but not as much anymore. 

 

I'm done arguing with you for awhile.  Good day.

 

 

Being affordable is the basis of whether or not it would ever be a realistic option for this ballclub. I gave you the guys in the AL I thought were at or above Pods' level, and 3 of the 4 are affordable to only the 3 or 4 highest payrolled teams in the AL.

 

You wanna b**** and moan about how Pods doesn't fit some kind of stat-based notion on what a lead-off man should provide? How about you give me a goddamn alternative?

 

This offseason, who should the Sox replace Pods with as a lead-off hitter? The year after? What do you look for out of your leadoff hitter and who is available that can provide it?

 

Surely Pods' 44 SB and 9 CS prior to getting injured in just 74 games? If a power hitter has a messed-up elbow or wrist but keeps playing on it because his team needs him, but can no longer hit HR's, yet he still puts up equivalent average and OBP numbers, is he now not a worthwhile investment/player? Should they trade him the next offseason because he played injured for the team that needed him, but his production sufferred???

 

Some of these arguements about why Podsednick is not a good leadoff hitter are more removed from reality than Howard Hughes' dying thoughts...

[Jerry Owens]

Pot, meet kettle.  You're ignorant to anything you don't understand. 

 

'Oh, Win Shares?  Stat geek.  Haha, take your eyes off the spreadsheet, geek!"

 

You're right, not accepting the validity of many made-up stats in the uniform application to a ballclub is ME not understanding them, right?

 

LOL! Ok... keep digging... :banghead

[Jerry Owens]

You know what, I'm sure Grady Sizemore's 22 HRs, 37 doubles, and 11 triples did a much better job at 'putting pressure on the defense' -- or, I should say, contributing to a successful offense -- than Podsednik's total of 29 x-tra basehits and 59 SBs -- not to mention he was caught 23 times, and probably picked off another three-five times, thus wiping out any chance whatsoever of his run scoring. 

 

You're right, Sizemore's solo HR's (15 of his 22) and lack of pressure on the basepaths are perfect for leadoff. He would have been infinitely more valuable in the #2 or #3 spot in the order, setting up for the run-producers while still getting a chance to drive in runs... however, Cleveland doesn't have a good leadoff hitter, so guess where he gets placed in the order... But hey, his 132 strike-outs really put that pressure on the defense and pitcher, right? So let's put it another way... if Pods and Sizemore are on the same team, who would be batting leadoff?

 

LOL... thanks Bill James for weighing in on the uniform interpretation of what "contribution" means... basically, anything you claim...

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

Offensively, yes.  Defensively, he's giving a heckuva lot of those runs right back.  And, I don't care what metric you use, your eyes, stats, whatever -- Griffey is an awful fielder at this point in his career.

 

But yes, I agree with your main point (before, again, ya had to throw that slap in there) that a good LH hitter would do this offense a helluva lot of good.

 

He's giving those runs back when moving to one of the smallest CF's in the majors? Really? Not buying that one... he's giving back 20 HR's and 30+ RBI's and a .200 points of OPS?

 

If you want to argue durability, have at it, but that other argument holds as much water as a seive...

[Jerry Owens]

"you can make stats tell you anything you want to hear"   -You

Roberts second half, which you label as "mediocre at best"

 

248 AB

.274 AVG

.351 OBP

31 BB

34 K

9 SB

5 CS

 

2005 Pre All-Star: .345/.416/.591 18 SB, 5 CS

2005 Post All-Star: .274/.351/.419 9 SB, 5 CS

 

Career numbers:

2001: 75 games, .253/.284/.341, 12 SB, 3 CS

2002: 38 games, .227/.308/.297, 9 SB, 2 CS

2003: 112 games, .270/.337/.367, 23 SB, 6 CS

2004: 159 games, .273/.344/.376, 29 SB, 12 CS

 

So, based on his career numbers, those 2nd half numbers are right in-line.

 

ok, I won't use the word disruptive if you don't use "stats"... talk about a complete asinine way to totally disregard something... can you be more ignorant?

 

Maybe the pitchers only throw over to 1st base 4-5 times because Pods is a plodder... mayeb they throw fat pitches to the following hitters because they're thinking about what color to paint their bedrooms in their new mansions...

 

Sheeesh. I guess all players in a batting order are interchangeable and you shouldn't expect anything different out of your #8 hitter as your leadoff hitter.

[Jerry Owens]

Scott Podsednik going down alone didn't cause this team to lose a 15 game lead.

 

Fair enough, and I didn't mean to imply that or use it as basis for my arguement...

[Jerry Owens]

"you can make stats tell you anything you want to hear"  -You

Roberts second half, which you label as "mediocre at best"

 

248 AB

.274 AVG

.351 OBP

31 BB

34 K

9 SB

5 CS

 

Podsednik's second half

 

225 AB

.284 AVG

.326 OBP

13 BB

34 K

15 SB

14 CS

So, Roberts is getting on base more, walking at a much higher rate, striking out at a lower rate, stealing bases at a better rate, all while being "mediocre at best".  Please explain why you'd rather have Podsednik, without using the word disruptive or any variation of it.

 

Because Scotty was playing hurt. He would have been out for longer had the team not been tanking it while he and Crede were missing those games... 3 months later and he still isn't 100%... what does that tell you?

[Jerry Owens]

Or maybe it was becaue our the players now guaranteed the most at-bats in the game were Timo Perez/Pablo Ozuna and Geoff Blum was playing everyday. 

 

That was the biggest part of it, but why were they in the lineup? Because Pods and Crede were hurt and I doubt they were missing Crede all that much in the #8 hole...

 

Then again, if you can't measure it, it must not be real... :rolly

[Jerry Owens]

No.  If I were using win shares, it'd be even uglier.  Just look at the leadoff hitter for every team in MLB and objectively ask yourself, would we be better off with this guy over Pods?  I think you'll be surprised.

 

So, you'd take these guys over Pods from the AL as a leadoff hitter?

 

Pods' numbers when batting leadoff:

.290/.351/.350 - 57 SB, 23 CS

 

Other "top" leadoff hitters in the AL - stats ***when hitting in the leadoff spot:

.304/.351/.437 - 33 SB, 8 CS

.290/.325/.458 - 43 SB, 7 CS

.317/.367/.441 - 18 SB. 1 CS

.292/.352/.457 - 4 SB, 4 CS

.245/.346/.487 - 3 SB, 3 CS

.291/.356/.393 - 50 SB, 15 CS

.290/.353/.493 - 18 SB, 9 CS

.285/.371/.409 - 4 SB, 1 CS

.275/.349/.328 - 5 SB, 3 CS

 

I'll give you Jeter, even though he is a #2 hitter IMO...

 

Brian Roberts had HALF a great year and fell back to previous performance in the second half, which was mediocre at best.

 

Here is who those stats relate to in order:

Ichiro

Carl Crawford

Johnny Damon

David DeJesus

Dave Dellucci

Chone Figgins

Grady Sizemore

Brandon Inge

Jason Kendall

 

 

The only guys I'd even consider on this list an "upgrade" over Pods would be MARGINALLY Ichiro, Damon, and Figgins. Grady Sizemore would never hit leadoff for me unless it was a dire necessity, he's too valuable elsewhere in the order.

 

So, in the AL, of the only guys (4) I'd even consider replacing Pods with in the #1 spot in the order here are their 2005 salaries:

 

Jeter: $19,600,000

Ichiro: $12,529,000 (someone who again would be best suited in a #2 roles if he had someone like Pods/Figgins in front of him)

Figgins: $390,000

Damon: $8,250,000

 

 

So there you have it for the AL. The only guys, IMO, worth upgrading over Pod would all cost you 10+ million except for Figgins...

 

Sorry, but building a team that is station-to-station from the top of the order on down is a recipe for sitting on your ass in October unless you have a Sox/Astros type of rotation and bullpen of which there are only 1 or 2 teams in baseball who could even remotely compare to the Sox/Astros...

 

 

The basic issue is that some people are looking at stats and want to put the guy with the best numbers in place, regardless of disruptiveness, how they work a pitcher, how much attention they draw from the opposition when on base, how critical they are to a team's overall production...

 

You just CAN NOT ignore those factors when talking about a leadoff hitter. They are almost entirely ignorable for any spot in the order other that #1 or #2 hitter... Would you guys trade Iguchi's numbers in the #2 hole? How many times did he give himself up this season by simply trying advancing the runner? 50? 75? more? That is something that the propeller-heads cannot measure... and it is entirely CRUCIAL to the team's success...

[Jerry Owens]

They may also have been due to the Sox not getting the same pitching as the 1st half of the season.

 

Is that why their scoring production went through the floor? Because of the pitching?

[Jerry Owens]

There are at least 15 better leadoff hitters in the game than Podsednik, especially when he's running with a CS% over 50.

 

And guess what, who are the most disruptive? You have a stat for that? How many pitches did the guys behind Pods get to hit they never would have seen because the pitcher/catcher were worried about Pods stealing. And if he doesn't get hurt, he steals 80-90 bags and only get's caught 15 times TOPS...

 

You guys are a trip. It's not about "stat-geek, stat-geek", it's about having a freaking clue what the **** you're talking about...

 

Maybe we should bring Mike Caruso back? Chris Singleton? Ray Durham as a leadoff hitter? We all recall how effective that was, even though he was a #6 or at BEST a #2 hitter...

 

Great stats don't make someone a great leadoff hitter. The immeasureables such as disruptiveness in addition to OBP, stealing bases, pitches seen per plate appearance, average, etc... (think Kenny Lofton in his prime? Juan Pierre? Chone Figgins, etc)...

 

Nobody should give a flying **** about getting power from your leadoff hitter. I've seen a few too many references to OPS and OPS+ in relation to a leadoff hitter that just make my head spin...

 

Are you guys watching the game of baseball or staring at a blackboard in math class? Hell, I have engineering and math degrees from one fo the top institutions in the world for such and enjoy stats as much as the next guy, but you can make stats tell you anything you want to hear... The game of baseball is enjoyable and unpredictable because of these immeasureables and the human element. I think you "stat geeks" forget this far too often.

 

Just don't know what game you're watching if you think there are 15 better leadoff hitters in the game of baseball... mind-boggling...

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

Pretty much, there's little to no improvement on that team.

 

Ok, well, that team's payroll would be marginally higher than this year's and Pauly will never sign a 2-year deal and Griffey is not a FA, he would have to be traded for...

 

That being said, adding a LH'd .300-35-100 hitter to the #3 hole who would lead the team in OBP and OPS to what we already have in place of Rowand is not an improvement?

 

Wow, you've been listening to Hawk too much or you just forgot to take your meds... one or the other...

[Jerry Owens]

And, since Owens isn't likely to hit .330 in the majors -- more like, .270-.310, that's going to bring his OBP down, and his slugging down.  If he develops power, fine, but -- and this is where our opinions differ -- I'm not a huge fan of the Scott Podsednik-like, .290/.350/.360 guys.  I can deal with it if the OBP is closer to .380/.390 -- and if Owens can do that, great -- but I don't know if he'll be able to.  We shall see.

 

Here is the AL OBP stats...

 

American League OBP stats

 

Brian Roberts is about the only guy in a career year. Damon and Lugo at .366 and .362 respectively... Figgins and Pods at .351 and .350...

 

We have a leadoff hitter for the first time since Lance Johnson and people are ready to ship him out of town because he doesn't hit for enough power or some other kind of stat-geek reason that makes utterly no sense.

 

Sorry, guys, but being a disruptive force like Eckstein, Figgins, Podsednik... THAT is the name of the game at the top of the order. Look at all the good leadoff hitters in the game... almost all of them were in the playoffs...

 

Damon, Eckstein, Pods, Figgins, Furcal... those guys are major disruptions to the pitcher and defense (Damon to a lesser extent than the other 3), but you get my point, I hope...

 

You can't just plug numbers into a role and expect it to come out as the "best option"... you have to consider what role that player will have in the context of the entire order...

[Jerry Owens]

I'd say right now, there's a few guys on this team who could hit 1 or 2. I'd always thought Rowand if they stuck with him in CF, could hit in either position, if he shortened up his swing. Iguchi could still hit in the #2 hole, and then there's FA options. Pods could still be around in the future, so we don't know yet.

 

BWAAAAAAHAHAHAHAHA!

 

The Aaron Rowand with the career 310:96 K:BB ratio who can't bunt and K's well over 100 times a year????

 

That Aaron Rowand??? A #1 or #2 hitter???? yeah, ok... :rolly

[Jerry Owens]

Fair enough. The difference b/w Young and Owens though, is that Young has a lot more tools than Owens. If Owens was 28 and he did this in his 2nd year of baseball, would people still think of him as the same prospect? I know Scott Podsednik came out of the blue, but it's not really the norm.

 

I just want to see how Owens does in Charlotte next season in a smaller ballpark before he automatically becomes our next leadoff hitter. He may not even get a spot in our OF with Anderson, Sweeney and Young around. It's a very muddled picture right now.

 

 

Yet he's nowhere near that old. People can make all the age excuses they want about why it should weigh so heavily, but if a guy is legitimately inexperienced and is not dominating a level of competition based on his physical maturity, what the hell is the difference how old he is?

 

We all get excited by the plethora of OF prospects, but please tell me who is going to be hitting #1 and #2 on that team... Good leadoff hitters are CRUCIAL parts of the puzzle... you can't put players together with total disregard for how the pieces fit together...

[2005 AFL]

Whats with the errors for Valido?  Isnt he apposed to be a stud at ss?

 

They were all in the same game at the end of last week, IIRC...

 

Look at the # of errors he had during the regular season... He had just 12 errors in 119 games at SS. Considering the field conditions in A ball and his range, that's better than 90% of the SS's in MLB today. He's a major league gold glove caliber SS.

 

One bad game certainly doesn't change that.

[Jerry Owens]

Difference is, Owens is what 3 years older and even though it was his 1st full season, he should be putting up numbers around that mark (probably a little below) like that at his age for a 2nd round pick.

 

Let's see how he does in Charlotte, a ballpark not as big, before we anoint him our next lead-off man.

 

LOL... I have never figured out why age is such a boner-causing issue for some people. Care to look at his level of experience? What his background is? The guy took 3 years away from the game, 3 crucial years in a player's development, and came back to be drafted after playing in a nothing baseball program for just 2 years. Then, in just his 2nd professional season, he hits .330 in AA, making the jump from Low-A... It's not like he is hitting for power because he's physically superior to his competition because of being older and experience is not an issue either. Who cares if he's 28 years old if this is just his 2nd season in professional baseball after not playing it at all for 3 years?

 

Chris Young has been in our system playing professional ball for what just concluded his 4th full year within our system, and made the same jump in levels, yet is lauded over and over...

 

There is nothing NOT to be excited about here, guys.

 

Oh yeah, here is what BA said about him when drafted. Nothin in his performance has done anything to diminish those projections, IMO:

 

Scouting Report: In an age of sophisticated scouting, Owens is the rare college player who was on no one's radar at the start of the year but has emerged as a possible late first-round pick. For many, he's become the best college prospect on the west coast. A former wide receiver at UCLA who was projected to be a starter, Owens transferred to The Master's College two years ago--in part to deepen his faith, in part because he didn't want to get hurt playing football (he'd already red-shirted one season with a broken foot), and in part because he wanted to resume a baseball career abandoned since high school. Initially, he wanted to be a pitcher but it was apparent his blazing speed would be wasted at that position. In his first year back, the 6-foot-3, 190-pound Owens hit a modest .330 but he turned it up this year, hitting .451-6-31. He also learned how to utilize his speed at the plate and on the bases. He's been timed at a rapid 3.85 seconds to first base and stole 30 bases. Primarily a left fielder in college, Owens will soon land in center field, where his speed will be maximized. He projects along the lines of Kenny Lofton or Tom Goodwin.

[Jerry Owens]

At some point...we can get a lot of value out of Pods if we have talent coming up the pipe to replace him.

 

At some point, sure. When will that be? Who knows? You need to have a leadoff man somewhere, and unless they sign one or Owens is ready, until that point, they can't afford to trade him...

[Jerry Owens]

What are you talking about.... I think almost everyone thinks that after his contract is up I think after next season Pods will be gone.....So Pods should be there next year but after that Id think he would be gone and thats probably what most people think too.

 

Pods only has 3 years of service time heading into 2006... he will not be a FA until after the 2008 season, IIRC.

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

If Crede put up a line like that I'm almost certain he'd get a 3/4 year deal.

 

See my post on the matter...

 

If he just finds a way to turn:

 

May: .155/.211/.286

Aug: .103/.148/.172

 

Into:

 

May: .250/.300/.450

Aug: .250/.300/..450

 

He'd have hit almost .290 with an OPS in the .875 range! The guy hit over .275 in every month other than those 2 and over .300 in all but one of those months!

 

Ok, enough of the Kool-aid, but I think he get's one more year to see if he can put up a little more consistency and solidify his position as our 3rd baseman for the next few years...