[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

Does anyone know where Kenny Williams lives?  Can we put a whole bunch of subliminal messages around his house about signing Brian Giles?  Like a road sign on his way home that says "Chicago, 7 Giles" or something?  A likeness of Giles carved into the hedges across from his house?

 

If I knew where Kenny lived I'd be sending him doctored pictures of Giles, Furcal, and PK jumping into eachothers arms in White Sox uniforms with a World Series celebration going on...

 

 

I thought he lived in Hyde Park or something like that, but his son went to HS in Plainfield, so....

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

Agreed on every point, although the Crede thing is a bit frustrating.  The good news with Crede is:

 

April:  .304/.368/.456

May: .155/.211/.286

June:  .275/.333/.538

July: .304/.342/.551

Aug:    .103/.148/.172

Sep:    .379/.419/.759

 

I think your expectations for Crede are a bit high at this point, but I could definitely see .270/.330/.500

 

Just for comparison, here are his 2004 splits...

April: .230/.284/.365

May: .184/.204/.402

June: .329/.418/.600

July .198/.232/.264

Aug: .210/.324/.387

Sept: .275/.333/.500

Oct: .273/.273/.364

 

2003 splits:

April: .233 .261 .314

May: .209 .250 .352

June: .244 .299 .367

July: .244 .333 .439

Aug: .352 .392 .659

Sept: .280 .309 .452

 

 

 

In 2005, Joe had 4 of his best 6 months as a full-time MLB 3rd baseman... If he just struggles to the tune of .250-.300-.450 (equates to ~16 more hits) in the August and May months instead of becoming a pitcher in our lineup, his season-ending numbers look more like this:

 

.289/.340/.530...

 

I just hope he figures out how to be consistent, because he's clutch as hell and he has the ability, he just loses himself entirely for 20-30 games ta a crack and it has killed him... However, he has a nice upward career trend and I think the Sox need to stick with him at least one more year and see if he can find that consistency...

 

It's not the high of the highs as much as the low of the lows... You need to find a way to mitigate the damage when you're scuffling...

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

So, I think we can agree that the payroll will probably be in a range from $85 million to $93 million (or so).  He might raise it to $100, but I don't see the need to, unless the plan is to sign someone like Brian Giles as well as trading for a bat like Delgado or Thome.

 

BTW, it is this type of reasoning that I used to determine it would be economically feasible to acquire a Thome/Delgado/Helton/Giles in addition to Furcal and resigning Pauly...

 

Again, wouldn't an offseason like that simply electrify this city?

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

 

That is interesting, but I'd be more intrigued with a normalized distribution including all teams that didn't make the playoffs versus teams that did...

 

That is, for each of the last 5 years, chart the playoff-season attendence/payroll and the following season's att./payroll versus the teams that failed to make the playoffs...

 

if you're just plotting a single data source at individual points, fitting it to a curve isn't really usefull... more of a bargraph...

 

That's a good idea, though...

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

So, I think we can agree that the payroll will probably be in a range from $85 million to $93 million (or so).  He might raise it to $100, but I don't see the need to, unless the plan is to sign someone like Brian Giles as well as trading for a bat like Delgado or Thome.

 

Really, they just need to make the smart investment when the off-season rolls around.  At this point, I'm not quite sure who that is -- but I'd lean towards Giles, for our giant need of some real good OBP, along with lots of x-tra basehits (46 doubles and triples combined this year -- I'd say that some of those will turn into homers, but he'd be a 20 HR, 40 2B/3B guy at the Cell).

 

I'm interested as to what they do at thirdbase.  I think they should go the route of sacrificing some defense for offense -- so long as there's a big improvement on offense, like Chad Tracy.

 

I've still not seen a logical expression of why Arizona would trade Chad Tracy.

 

If they have a payroll of 85-93 million, they could resign Konerko and add 2 10-12 million dollar a year contracts in ADDITION simply by moving Marte, El Duque and whoever they replace with the 2 big contracts...

 

Giles would easily hit 0 HR's at USCF, and I'd bet more along the lines of about 35 HR's per year for the first 2-3 years of a new deal. Again, not sure he'd leave the west coast...

 

The Sox will likely be starting Joe Crede at 3rd base next year... can't deny that guy's clutch-ness...

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

I think if the Sox go to the WS, it's $10 million in revenue for sure, if they lose the ALCS, think $6-$7 or so, a la Seattle 2001.

 

Also consider the inflated ticket prices in the last 4 years, I think those numbers are going to be significantly different, no?

 

Cost of an ALCS ticket in 2001 vs today?

 

I think the WS participants are looking more in the 20 million dollar range while the LCS losers are looking in the 10-12 million dollar range...

 

Of course not to mention parking, souvenirs, concessions, etc...

 

Yeah, the radio does decline a little bit, but IIRC the weighting of that deal was towards the Bulls (mutual broadcast rights), but I could be wrong...

 

However, the Sox also got a GREAT deal with Comcast and have a significant increase in TV money.

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

Yeah, a good question to ask is what this season will do in terms of increasing White Sox season ticket sales. If that jumps up dramatically, which I sort of expect, I wouldn't think the $90M figure is out of the question. Triple digits is too much IMO.

 

What moves they make this offseason will have a LOT to do with what those ticket sales look like...

 

They bring back Pauly, add a couple bats, keep the core of the rotation and bullpen, and you're going to see a BIG jump, IMO...

 

You capitalize on this season and back it up by further strengthening your team and you will absolutely galvanize this fan-base...

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

That looks like a really nice line-up but I won't get my hopes up. I get the feeling Kenny and Ozzie have a huge woody for the team chemistry thing, making Rowand and Uribe unlikely candidates to be traded. Hope I'm wrong...

 

I also have my reservations with Thome. At 35 and with injury concerns, it's a real roll of the dice to have him on the payroll for that much money.

 

I agree. I think my preference would actually be Giles, as it also allows you to resign Frank to a short-term incentive-laden deal. In a park as small as USCF, Giles could play CF on the days he isn't playing RF or LF resting either Pods or Dye. Gives you a back-up plan at DH if Frank can't stay healthy (you then play Anderson in CF and DH either Pods or Giles)...

 

But again, unless the West Coast teams just aren't interested, I don't see him leaving the west coast.

 

Thome's injuries are a concern, but with either Thome or Delgado, their current teams KNOW they're going to have to eat a bunch of money, much like the Yankees and Contreras...

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

If we play one or two more LCS games at home, and make it to the World Series, we could realistically be looking at a $100 million payroll for 2006.

 

Well, I still say 85 is what we should try to fit to (having more is gravy, but I tend to think it will be banked to absorb long-term things and junk like Frank's buyout)

 

Also, here is how playoff money is split up (keep in mind MLB sets the playoff ticket prices and get's a pretty hefty chunk of the change along the way)...

 

Division Series Money: Split between 8 participating teams as well as the 2 non-Wild-Card second place teams in each league... Money split 12 ways.

 

Championship Series Money: Split between 4 participants

 

World Series Money: split between 2 participants

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

This gives me a lineup of:

 

Pods LF

Furcal SS

Thome/Delgado/Giles DH

Konerko 1B

Iguchi 2B

Dye RF

AJ C

Crede 3B

Anderson CF

 

or possibly even:

Pods LF

Furcal SS

Iguchi 2B

Thome/Delgado/Giles DH

Konerko 1B

Dye RF

AJ C

Crede 3B

Anderson CF

 

with a rotation of:

Contreras, Buehrle, Garland, Garcia, McCarthy

 

Bullpen:

Cotts, Bajenaru, Lefty specialist, Politte, Vizcaino

Setup: Hermanson

Closer: Jenks

 

Bench:

Ozuna: utility

Gload or Harris: Utility

4th/5th OF'er

Widger: backup C

 

Granted, this is carrying 12 pitchers, but still... you could swap one for a cheap utility guy...

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

Konerko- $11M

Contreras- $9M

Thome/Delgado - $10M, other team paying the difference (at least in the first couple of years)

Garcia- $9M

Furcal- $8M (deal starts there the first year)

Buehrle- $7.75M

Dye- $5M

Hermanson- $3M

Iguchi- $2.4M

Pods- $1.975M

Politte- $1.2M

Garland- call it $5M

AJ- we'll call it $3M

Vizcaino- call it $1.3M

Crede- call it $1M (from 400k in 2005)

 

These veterans = 78.625M

-------------------------------------------------------------

 

Cotts: 400k

Anderson: 330k

Jenks: 330k

Bajenaru: 330k

Ross Gload: 400k

Ozuna: 400k

Widger: 500k

McCarthy: 330k

4th OF'er - 500k

Lefty Specialist: 1.5M

 

others: 5.02M

---------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL: 83.625M

 

 

 

Frank's one-time 3.5 million buy-out is a non-salary adder absorbed by JR. Also leaves the option to resign Frank to a small (1.5M base + lots of incentives) deal should the Sox end up with a non-1B type of DH or a guy like Giles in the #3 hole, allowing Frank to DH part-time hitting 4th or 5th. Or they could absorb more money from acquiring a DH. I really like the Giles idea, but I just don't see him leaving the west coast except to play with his brother in Atlanta.

 

The wonderful world of numbers.

 

If you'd like to now divert to the question of whether or not 85 million is realistic, that's an entirely different discussion.

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

I was thinking El Duque as the 5th starter.  I actually thought the Sox misused him a bit this year.  I thought they should be using him as a kind of "Sunday Starter" a la Lyons in his late career - once a week on 6 days' rest.  He'd be much more effective as a 25-game-a-year starter, spaced out evenly, than to ask him to throw 32 starts as a part of a 5 man rotation.  The other 7 starts are made up for by off days.

 

It also depends on the hitter you get.  I wouldn't trade Garland unless I could get a real good LH power hitter.  I was thinking Overbay, who is in his prime and I think his 34 doubles and 19 homers turn into 27 doubles and 26 homers at the Cell, but there may be other examples.  You might even be able to get another arm out of the Brewers for Garland.

 

Garland for Ryan Howard is a no-brainer IMHO.

 

 

I am not an Overbay fan, certainly not enough of a fan to even think about trading Garland for him.

 

LOL on the Howard one... yeah, I'd pay Garland's contract for the next 4 years to make that trade!

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

Did you miss the "at least" part? That total can easily be over $80 mil with Konerko/Furcal's contracts, plus Garland, A.J., and Crede's contracts, and whether or not Philly/Florida eats that much of their contract. And with the massive number

 

This is a "what would you do if you were GM this offseason thread"...

 

not a

 

"what would you do if you are GM and can't make any of the moves you propose to make" thread...

 

Rowand and Uribe should be attractive enough to force someone to take theirs and possibly El Duque's contract. Marte still has value... a bad couple of months doesn't mean squat... Alan Embree still has a job...

 

If you actually do all the math based on my moves, the 2006 salary is right around $85 million, right where I am projecting it.

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

Rowand- $3.25 mil

 

Hey, don't forget that I traded Rowand and will be starting Mr. "I make the minimum" Brian Anderson...

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

Okay, some math on next year's payroll then, as you project it...

 

Konerko- $11 mil

Furcal- $9 mil

Thome/Delgado - $12 mil, variable depending on how much their team eats

Garcia- $9 mil

Buehrle- $7.75 mil

Contreras- $9 mil

Iguchi- $2.4 mil

Rowand- $3.25 mil

Hermanson- $3 mil

Dye- $5 mil

Pods- $1.9 mil

Politte- $1.2 mil

Garland- ~$5 mil depending on deal/arbitration

AJ- ~$3 mil, maybe more

Crede- ~$1 mil, again depending on deal/arbitration

Vizcaino- not entirely sure, made $1.3 mil last year

 

Even assuming their team eats half of the DH's contract that's $77.5 mil, not counting Vizcaino, or the other 9 players on the roster. $77.5 mil on 15 players, and it might be more. Tell me how likely that really is.

 

I projected an 85 million dollar payroll. Do the math on the other 9 players and then tell me I'm being unrealistic based on an 85 million dollar payroll.

 

Jenks: minimum

Cotts: near minimum

Anderson: minimum

Ozuna: ~500k

Widger: ~500k

Harris: Minimum

Borchard (or other 4th OF'er): ~500k (conservative estimate, maybe)

 

Still have some money left to sign a bullpen lefty arm...

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

Spot on analysis. 

 

However, I'd be more inclined to trade Garland than El Duque - he'd bring a better return (I think the Jon Garland after the ASB is the true Jon Garland), and El Duque's salary will be similar to Garland's after arbitration this offseason.  Both are free agents after 2006, and, to be quite honest, even if Garland is as good as he was in 2005 next year, a Buehrle-Garcia-Contreras (second half) - Garland - McCarthy (last five starts) is overkill in the AL Central and the resources are better spent on left-handed, power hitting. 

 

I never thought I'd say the Sox have too much starting pitching, but it really does that way (and the fact that Gio Gonzalez is on the way is even better).

 

I might be inclined to deal Garland as well, but only if it brought me a Mark Texiera type of young talent (at a semi-reasonable price)

 

I also like the idea of having 5 REAL starting pitchers. McCarthy as the #4 and ??? as the number 5 looks a lot like the way we started 2004. Those 5 guys as starters get you 2 the playoffs. Unless you get a guy like Millwood or (god-forbid) Scott Elarton as a #5 starter, I'm still not terribly thrilled with that trade-off in order to get one hitter, especially when you consider the impact it would have if one starter went down with injury. We don't have anyone in the minor ready to assume any kind of starting role in 2006, maybe not even 2007, other than McCarthy.

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

I'd say no for two reasons:

 

(1) The "Where would he play?" problem.  He'd half to play LF, and Kenny and Ozzie think that Podsednik was the reason they won 99 games, instead of Garland (improvement), Contreras (improvement) and El Duque (passable 5th starter).  There's no room for him in the OF.

 

2 letters... D... H...

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

You keep mentioning guys coming off the payroll and guys we could deal, but don't you think that we might want to keep some of these guys? Wouldn't we probably want to keep Contreras and Dye beyond the coming season? While we're at it, don't you think we'd want to try to keep Buehrle, Garcia, and Garland when their contracts are up? None of them will be cheap, and I'd probably only want to keep Furcal over Dye for sure. Plus these players that you keep mentioning us trading for with all of the newly expendable players are going to result in fairly large committments, especially if it's Delgado and Thome.

 

Yadda yadda yadda. All of the things you have mentioned are contingent concerns beyond 2006, which do not really factor into "What if I were GM this offseason"...

 

If I'm GM this offseason, I want to build on 2005 and come back with an even stronger team in 2006 to take full advantage of the momentum the team has built. Sure we may want to keep Contrerat beyond 2006, but at 9 million next year, that's a big chunk of change looking beyond that for a guy with so far, one half of a dominant season.

 

What if some guy doesn't pan out, what if some guy's numbers drop, what if their home/away splits don't carry over... what if what if what if... Sorry, PECOTA isn't enough reason for me to not sign an impact player at SS to be my #2 hitter.

 

You also keep insisting I'm sacrificing #3 and #4 hitters, which I am clearly not doing since I have addressed those spots in the order.

 

Is Furcal as much of a slap hitter as our .280+ hitting Podsednick? Nope. BTW, a .284 average from Furcal would have lead this team in hitting this year. How is that not a consideration or a significant upgrade? This home and away crap is ridiculous... have you ever watched Furcal play a single baseball game? You're going to sit behind your computer and tell me a 1-2 punch of Podsednick-Furcal doesn't scare the bejeezus out of just about every pitcher and catcher on the face of this earth? That makes the next 2-3 guys in the order better hitters on top of it!

 

 

Don't even ask about the defensive part... SS's don't improve defensively as they get more experience, particularly in the mid 20's??? Check just about any SS in baseball...

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

How would it stay the same if he goes from making $8.75 mil to $11 or $12 mil, even without adding in raises for the other guys on our roster? Unless our payroll increases dramatically, we're not going to be able to keep Paulie, improve at DH, and get Furcal. Spending that much money on a guy that is basically going to be Scott Podsednik with a little more pop just doesn't make sense, especially when there probably wouldn't be anyone to drive him in the 3 and 4 holes. We need another legit RBI guy, not another speedy player that depends on others to drive him in.

 

1) We lose a significant chunk of contracts this offseason which is how Pauly's 2 million dollar rasie doesn't add payroll when other things are considered.

 

Shingo's salary (2.5 million)

Carl's salary ( 4 million)

Frank's salary (8 million)

Timo + Blum = ~ 1.55 million

Ben Davis something like 1-2 million

 

have you read this thread where that has been detailed?

 

Now, if you trade Marte, El Duque and Uribe, you clear another

 

El Duque's 2006 salary will be about 5 million based on escalator based on incentive with another 2 million in possible incentive... for this, we'll just call it 5, and the team may have to eat some of it to deal him (or include him with prospects or exchanging money in a deal)...

 

Marte will make 2.25 million in 2006.

 

Uribe will make 3.15M in 2006 and 4.15M in 2007 with a 5M option for 2008.

 

That's over 10 million dollars in additional salary clearance, in addition to what I am projecting as 10 million in increased payroll (based on KW statements that JR had given him additional money that he had available on the order of ~ 5 million plus playoff revenues and projected increases in season ticket sales.

 

So, my plan is based on resigning Pauly and giving the slated raises and ending up where we are today. Then signing Furcal, trading Marte/ElDuque/Uribe to acquire that DH... in one or multiple deals that may also have to include prospects...

 

Why is this so far-fetched in your mind? What part doesn't mesh with reality? (I understand El Duque's salary isn't all that attractive to a team to take it on, but it's all short-term money, not long-term commitment)

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

I still say that the whole Furcal situation looks an awful lot like the Cabrera situation last year. Is he a solid player? Yes. Is he an upgrade over Uribe? Yes. Is he worth more than $8 mil a year? No way. Check out my post a while back concerning Furcal's hitting outside of Turner Field and his defense before this season. I've probably posted it twice, but no one seems to care or respond to the points.

 

So home/away splits don't carry over? They wouldn't benefit the Sox the same way? What is it about Turner Field that makes it unlikely that moving to a MORE hitter-friendly park is going to negate?

 

Obviously they would have to trade Uribe if they signed Furcal, but Uribe has legit value in the market, is a good commodity if you wish to make a trade. You also have to look beyond 1-year payroll bubbles and consider the fact that Contreras and Dye have expiring contracts after 2006 (IIRC). Frank would also likely only be resigned if it is short-term and-or incentive-laden... trade El Duque and Marte, more money freed up...

 

You can commit to some long-term money here, especially if guys you acquire have slightly back-loaded deals... (could structure Pauly's deal that way if need be)...

 

In short, I don't think it's unreasonable to consider adding Furcal and a DH in addition to Pauly, or at the very least, the equivalent in that salary total. And remember, if you're swapping Uribe for a 9 million dollar Furcal, you're making ~5 million a year in additional investment to turn a #8 or #9 hitter into a legit #2 hitter who is a sparkplug. (also allows you to trade Pods in a year or 2 if Jerry Owens is ready to assume that role, easing that transition)

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

With the way the free agent crop looks this year...someone will offer Paulie 4 years, $50 million plus.  Anaheim needs a bat and a 1b.  Ditto the Dodgers.  Toronto has money to spend.  So do several other teams.

 

Unless the Sox sign him before he hits the open market.

 

Also, please stop posting about Furcal being 10 million dollars straight up. Uribe has a considerable amount of cash coming his way in the next 2-3 years as well, and signing Furcal would surely lead to trading Uribe, who has real value, could probably really help you land a guy like Delgado (Fla is short a SS next year) or possibly Thome.

 

Guys can be good home/away players because of their surroundings at those places, and there's certainly nothing about Turner field that would seem to indicate it giving him some Coors' Field-like advantage. Freddie or Mark B's home and away splits for example... does that make them not worth what they are making?

 

All the raises, resigning Pauly, and resigning Frank to something reasonable would put us back to where we are at today, approximately...

 

You trade El Duque, Marte, Uribe, and now you have another 10 million to mess with, in addition to whatever payroll increase you're willing commit (which I think we'll be around 85 million next year)...

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

He's better defensively too.

 

 

Way to address the topic and questions you left unanswered... :rolly

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

Not a tough call at all. KneeCap Podsednik

 

Use the $5M to find a real left fielder.

 

Wait, dump Pods, don't sign Uribe, and look for a real LF'er? Who is going to lead-off? Maybe you missed the part of the season where the Sox played the best baseball in the majors, you know, the part where they had a legit leadoff hitter who got on and stole a crap-load of bases... Sheesh, your plan has us looking like the 2001-2004 teams except without the power. That worked SOOOOO well.

 

And we replace this leadoff how? With Uribe? Rowand? Dye? Come on, what's the solution there?

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

Uhh, Furcal had a 100 OPS+ this past season, while Uribe's (who only since September added the leg kick) had an 85 OPS+.

 

Defensively, Juan Uribe had 9.3 defensive win shares to Furcal's 8.1. 

 

Furcal probably is the better player, but all things considered -- equal defense, edge to Furcal offensively -- the offensive edge isn't worth the $10 million that we'd have to pay him.

 

Ok, stat-geeks, put your calculators away for 10 minutes and take a step back. Look at the bigger picture of "how do you build a team" and "how do you fit pieces together"...

 

It's not a one-to-one comparison when comparing a demon on the base-paths as a #2 hitter to Uribe, who doesn't steal, get on base, or provide you with anything you can build around except for defense, of which Furcal is his equal.

 

Again, I don't know that I'd pay Furcal more than 8-9 million, but Uribe get's a raise next year to 3.15M in 2006 and 4.15M in 2007 w/ a 5 million dollar 2008 option. It's not like he's working for the league minimum.

 

Hitters in the #1-5 range are exceedingly difficult to find or acquire. Anytime you can fill one of those positions with an player at SS, C, CF, or 2B, you're giving yourself infinitely more options in the way and positions you have available to fill the other holes in your lineup.

 

Look, Uribe is a career .262-.305-.432. Furcal is a career .284-.348-.409 and has done so at the top of the order. If they are both excellent defensively, which do you prefer?

 

Is getting a #1 or #2 hitter at SS worth the difference of ~5 million a year versus a #8 hitting SS?

 

Tough call. I think it is, others may not, but it's not the 10 million dollar difference some are making it out to be.

[You're the GM: White Sox edition]

I just like to point that out to people who somehow think Furcal is a savior. -- Lugo is essentially the same player, and nobody thinks he's the answer.

 

The Savior? Hell, they sign Furcal, they'll still need a #3 and #4 hitter... That is the #1 priority. However, Furcal is about the same age as Uribe, is about equivalent defensively (more range), and he hits better than Uribe. Expecting either of them to significantly surpass what they have done in the majors until now is silly and just wishful thinking, IMO.

 

Furcal has hit a damn consistent .284 without much variance, season-to-season. He also stole 46 bags (vs 10 CS) on a team that doesn't run much (only guy on Atlanta with 20+ attempts). How many bags does Uribe steal on a team that runs a lot?

 

.348 career OBP isn't great, but at the same time, our leadoff and #2 hitters went for .351 and .342 respectively.

 

Do you guys grasp the effect on pitchers it would have to start a lineup out with Podsednick and Furcal 1-2? In addition to those top-of-the-order things he does, he also slugged .479 with a .777 OPS that would have been about even with Iguchi for 3rd best on our team (out of the regulars)...

 

Uribe has value. Hell, play him at 3rd and trade Crede, I don't care, but Furcal does a LOT of things for a team that needs a more guys to be more multi-faceted.

 

 

This goes back to what fathom and I have discussed. #9 hitters at SS are easy to find. #1 or #2 hitters at that position are much more valued. We'll see what the market bears for him, but I would target him if I were KW, although 9 million would be a little too rich for my blood. Most big-market teams in the need of SS got theirs last year.