SoxWatcher

This isn't a major point, but it is of some significance. I was wondering how old everyone thought Jose Contreras is. I read the article about Jose in the Sept. 29 CST in which Ozzie referred to him as "this kid." I wonder if Ozzie was joking. He is officially listed as 32 years old. Of course, everyone knows this is BS. He came out of Cuba and could say his age was whatever he wanted to say. His age is of relevance because both Sox fans and Sox management is talking about how Jose needs to change how he pitches in order to become effective. He needs to not tip his pitches, throw more fastballs, get better control, get better command, etc. If he really were a kid, I'd be more likely to be optimistic that he can change how he pitches. But, he isn't a kid; therefore I'm not so optimistic. With Jose, what you see is what you got. How old do you think he is? I'd put the over/under at 39. (bet the over)

If the Sox pitch Schoenstiff before the end of the season, then this means bad things for the Sox. The remainder of this season is like early Spring Training. They are pitching guys they want a look at for next season. The only reason to pitch Schoney is if you are considering having him on the roster next year. Paying him more than $1 million (again!) to suck would be another bad move by the Sox.

Pavano would be great. But, I doubt the Sox are going to get the most coveted FA pitcher. The Yankees need him and the Yankees get what they want. If one is realistically looking at what the Sox might end up getting (if they go after a FA starter at all...you know how KW loves trades), Lowe is more likely. His numbers haven't been great, so he won't get premium money. He's not a great starter, but at least he has a penchant for groundballs, and maybe he'll give up fewer homers than Judy.

Very true. The Sox will already be paying Thomas $8 million and he could easily have a season with 100-200 at bats due to yet another injury. Hard to argue that we should risk additional millions on another player with serious injury risk.

You're probably right that they can afford to sign one or two of those. Radke probably is at the top of the list. If they pick up Guzman's option at $5 million, then Ryan isn't as smart as I think he is.

Buehrle is a solid, but unspectacular #2. No better, no worse. To claim anything else is just plain silly.

Not for Kenny. No Sox player, and particularly no Sox prospect is untouchable. I hope you guys aren't in love with Anderson, Sweeney, or any Sox prospect, because Kenny would trade them all for the next grinder.

Erstad is pretty worthless. Except for one aberrant year, his offensive production has been downright bad. Unfortunately for the Sox, KW has been interested in him for years. I wouldn't be shocked to see KW acquire him. Sounds like a Kenny move to me.

Dream on. They give up Griffey and take two scrub prospects who haven't panned out for the privilege of still paying half of his salary? They would get a better offer than that...probably already have.

95% of FA's go to the team that makes the best offer in terms of dollars and years. I bet he'll come to Chicago if JR outbids all of the other teams interested in him. THAT is why he won't be a Sox next year.

I don't know if we want to debate how much money JR and the Ownership Group "have to spend". But, I didn't intend this thread to be JR bashing. It was merely intended to inform the debates about what the Sox should do to improve this team. Some Sox fans are still talking about "using the $14 million of Maggs money" to get an $8 million pitcher and a $6 million position player. Given the various raises for players and the contracts of midseason additions of Garcia, Contreras, and Everett, the Maggs money is already allocated. Any improvements to this team will have to come from increased spending by the Ownership Group, or trades, or both.

With all this talk about potentially signing FA's, making trades, etc., I thought it would be helpful to point out what the Sox 2005 payroll projects to be. If the Sox stood pat and didn't make any significant signings or trades, this would be the Sox 2005 roster and payroll: 1B - Konerko (8.75M) 2B - Harris (320K) 3B - Crede (350K) SS - Uribe (350K) LF - Lee (8M) CF - Rowand (1M - est.) RF - Everett (4M) C - Davis (1.4M - est.) DH - Thomas (8M) Bench - Burke (310K) Bench - Gload (310K) Bench - Utility (300K) Bench - Utility (300K) Bench - Utility (300K) SP1 - Buehrle (5.75M) SP2 - Garcia (8M) SP3 - Contreras (6M) SP4 - Garland (2M - est.) SP5 - Grilli/Diaz (310K) RP1 - Takatsu (2.5M) RP2 - Marte (1.25M) RP3 - Pollitte (1.3M) RP4 - Cotts (310K) RP5 - Reliever (300K) RP6 - Reliefer (300K) TOTAL = $61.7 million That is about what the Opening Day payroll was this year. But, the above team has holes (aka dead weight) at 2B, 3B, RF (depending on your opinion of Everett), C, one SP spot, and at least 2 RP spots. That is a $61.7 million payroll with 6 or 7 holes to fill. Since JR probably won't spend a lot more than $70 million, it looks like some trade or trades are necessary in order to address the many holes in this swiss cheese roster.

I'm sick and tired of the "he's still young" argument. Garland now has 5 major league seasons under his belt and has pitched 773 innings. Yes, he is young, but he has had 5 years to develop. AND HE'S NOT IMPROVING. If he were a young very talented pitcher, then I would have expected him to show at least SOME improvement over these 5 years. He hasn't shown any improvement in any way that can be measured statistically. In fact, in many ways he's gotten worse over the years. His ERA appeared to have leveled off at about the 4.50 point, but then ballooned up to 5 this year. His ERA has levelled off at about 1.40. His K/9 have dropped over the last 3 years (to under 5). His K/BB have levelled off just under 1.50. His OPS against has increased over the last 3 years (to just under .800). And, he's giving up more and more home runs every year. Isn't he supposed to be a ground ball pitcher? What's to like about this "kid"? His stats aren't particularly good and they haven't shown improvement over his major league career. What evidence is there that he'll suddenly be a different pitcher? He has good stuff, not great stuff. His command and control are usually poor. And he's a headcase. What am I missing? I've watched Garland be an unrelenting stiff for the Sox for 5 years, and I'd rather not see anymore of it.

Uh yeah, it does bother me. Does it make me turn my back on the Sox? Nope.

Indeed I did.

Why root for the Sox when the ownership isn't doing all it can to win? Well, you can love a team without loving the ownership. All teams have problems. This one of the biggies for the Sox. And, of course, you are dead wrong when you say that the Sox would maximize profits if they blew up the team and had a $30 million payroll. The attendance would really drop and TV ratings would drop, leading to a bad new TV contract. This mediocre spending leads to a mediocre team. That leads to enough attendance and TV money to make a modest profit for the Ownership Group. It is a modest, safe profit. Low risk, guaranteed reward. That reward goes up (without increasing the risk) if the Sox move to the AL East.

Exactly. No one should be shocked that the primary interest of the Ownership Group is profitability. That is why they have modest, but not tiny payrolls year in and year out. Enough to compete, but not so much that it is financially risky (and not enough to actually build a championship team). So, why would anyone assume that JR isn't trying to get the Sox into the AL East, where the team would be more profitable, and have less of a chance of being a champion?

Please don't be so naive. For the most part, businessmen are businessmen. I'm sure the members of the ownership group bought into this team because they love baseball, not because they thought it the most profitable investment. But, being businessmen, they are going to run this team in as profitable a manner as possible. They will invest some money in payroll, but not too much. All eyes are on the bottom line. Are they willing to make the $100 million gambles that Angelos made year in and year out? Of course not. They want to win, but not at the expense of fiscal conservatism. They love baseball and owning a baseball team. But, are they willing to sacrifice profits (and risk taking losses) in order to really take a chance on building a championship team? Clearly not. As evidence, look at the history of the ACTIONS of this ownership group. So, I will again say that moving to the AL East is perfectly consistent with this ownership group's predominant philosophy: spend enough to compete, don't lose money, who cares about championships?

Excellent post! Those 5 prospects aren't world beaters, but they have some upside potential. Everett on the other hand, hasn't helped the Sox a bit, and now he's a $4 million albatross around the Sox neck next season, when they desperately need money to fill a number of holes. Regardless of what any Sox fan thinks of KW, you have to admit that he really F'd up on this year's Everett trade.

I don't see the Sox signing Pavan or Benitez. When was the last time the Sox outbid the mest of Major League Baseball for a premier free agent? Albert Belle? I don't see Jerry Reinsdorf getting all super-spendy with the Ownership Group's money anytime soon. The Sox have many holes to fill. In order to fill all of those holes AND sign a big money FA, Reinsdorf would have to GREATLY increase the payroll. He ain't gonna do it.

I don't know why some of you are saying "This ain't gonna happen." It might not, but there is reason to believe that it might. I heard Gammons talk about this on ESPN News earlier today. He said that Reinsdorf is heading the negotiations about moving the Expos to DC. Of course the Orioles owner Angelos has been against having this kind of competition in his backyard. Apparently, he would like to move the Orioles to the NL East. To facilitate this, Gammons said Reinsdorf offered to move the Chisox to the AL East. Then, Toronto would move to the AL Central. Since Reinsdorf is spearheading this negotiation, it seems plausible. But, even if Gammons is right on this, it was merely an offer made in a negotiation. It might not happen. But, those who are writing it off don't have their heads screwed on right. Jerry sees dollar signs in moving into the NL East. I have always thought that Jerry would rather make a guaranteed profit from the Sox, than risk extra money to fund a champion. I think he sees this realignment as easy money for him and the ownership group.

I don't think Ozzie has been saying these things at all. Ozzie has been saying the Sox need to build their team around "speed and defense". The real problem is not Ozzie's idea of who should be on the 25-man roster. I don't think this rookie manager has much say in that at all. KW and his staff make the player personnel decisions. However, Ozzie's on-field decisions are all about small ball. He wants them to run, run, run. He wants to give up outs on hit-and-runs, sacrifices and bunts. That strategy minimizes run production. In today's game, particularly in UCF, you can't give up outs to maximize the chance of scoring a single run. Ozzie's small ball philosophy robs this team of runs. This team hasn't failed to contend for the last 4 years because it had too many power hitters. It hasn't had a good leadoff hitter, it hasn't had more than 3 decent starting pitchers and at least half the bullpen has stunk each of the last four years. The way to fix this team isn't to get more speedy slap hitters. Yes, of course you want better OBP at the top of the lineup. But, you have to gear your team to your home ballpark's strength, particularly when the park's effect is as exaggerated as it is at UCF. Ozzie's philosphy is wrong headed, particularly for UCF. Kenny should have hired a manager who understands that.

"You better be very careful not to turn your team into a Punch-and-Judy team, because [u.S. Cellular Field] is now playing like a small ballpark. You better play to your ballpark's strength..." -- Kenny Williams Well said, Kenny. I agree totally. Now, don't you think that you should have hired a manager who agrees with that? And don't you think you should have hired a manager who isn't in love with small ball and thinks it is the key to winning? Maybe in addition to acquiring players who play to your ballpark's strength, you should also hire a manager who manages to your ballpark's strength.

Loyalty shmoyalty. Teams don't win pennants by being loyal. They win pennants by putting the best talent on the field. If the Sox can upgrade by trading Thomas, then they should do it. Would you rather the Sox be loyal or win? And, I am firmly convinced that 95% of free agents go to the team that makes them the most lucrative offer. Everything else is secondary at best. Free agents aren't going to turn down Sox offers because they had the cajones to dump the great Frank Thomas. If the Sox put bigger numbers on the offer sheet than the rest of the teams, then they'll get the FA's.

Well, I have strong opinions. And, don't you think it is difficult to be agreeable with regard to the Sox given this season - and the prior three season?