Jake

Remember how we hoped the margins in the first two Senate elections would clue us in as to how the error in polling was? Well, they're in opposite directions. We thought McConnell would win by about 7%, but it looks like it will be in excess of 10%. We thought Shaheen would win by about 2.5%, but it looks like it will be in excess of 5%.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 02:44 PM) It's not an easy thing, even at the state level. That's partly why so few run, in either party. Think about the impacts: --Dragging your family and potentially others into the media spotlight to no fault of their own --Time demands are pretty huge, especially during campaign season --It is nearly impossible to keep up a "regular" job while serving --You are away from home and family a substantial part of the year --Even if you do your best to do the job well, you will be constantly criticized all over --You're forced into fundraising, which is something many people are not comfortable doing --You are pulled into the games That's a lot to take on, especially for people who are older and have families (and really, there aren't many 20-somethings who could make a legit run anyway). That's a hard choice. This is why we have to offer a decent salary to elected officials. This gig has to compare favorably with "regular" jobs or there's no way "regular" people can consider doing it. As for me, beyond not wanting to derail my career aspirations, I don't know that I'd ever be up to asking all kinds of people for money, over and over.

Some essential knowledge for tracking the returns tonight - http://election.princeton.edu/2014/11/02/l...ses/#more-12161 http://election.princeton.edu/2014/10/31/h...-midterm-polls/ Basically, expect the average of the polls to be off in the same direction for nearly all races. There's no telling what direction it will be, so you'll have a good grasp of the results across the board by watching how the returns differ from the polling averages. The more polling that occurred within a given area, the better here - lots of congressional districts and even some states (Alaska) aren't polled often or well so don't read into those results too terribly much.

QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 06:01 PM) Never happen. Could win by 15% and it wouldn't be a mandate, it would just be 'voters throwing a tantrum'. Of course, we would know that more voters are Democratic than are Republican, which casts doubt on what conclusions we should take from the outcome of congressional elections. According to data from the Princeton Election Consortium, Democrats would have to win by about 4.5% to have a 1-seat majority in the House. FWIW, the same forecasts (from Princeton Election Consortium) have control of the Senate being, essentially, a coin flip. Pollsters struggle with the natural selection biases that make opinion polling look more Republican than they are really are. That is, Republicans are more likely to have landlines and respond to these calls than Democrats. They all apply adjustments, but they all still leaned Republican in 2012 because they underestimated the voter turnout of Democrats. In mid-terms, traditionally there is a 2-3 point bias one way or the other. And it is not due to an intentional bias on the part of pollsters, but rather unforeseen changes in the electorate mixed with less polling data. Polls are actually getting worse year after year as well, since there aren't really as many universal ways to reach people like there was in the day of near-universal landlines.

It would be way too soon to can Emery, IMO. You can't evaluate GMs this quickly. I'd also say this is rather quick to pull the plug on a head coach, too. You put yourself in a position where suddenly you have to fire another coach immediately if he goes sub-.500 . . . shortly thereafter, you're the Raiders. Or something.

Frontload the contract while you can afford it. You won't hate yourself as much later on and it might make him tradeable if things don't work out so well.

We spent a lot of time coasting in this game

And if you're using the provided router functionality within the modem, I'd suggest not doing that and just getting your own router.

Turns out he actually sprained both of his ankles, lol. To sustain a minor injury like this and bounce back will probably be a big mental hurdle for him to clear, though. He hasn't had many benign injuries on the basketball court for a while.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Oct 31, 2014 -> 10:55 PM) Yep. Thibs sucked tonight. Use that depth on the bench. The depth that scores points. Taj - 28 minutes, 10 points Snell - 23 minutes, 10 points Brooks - 20 minutes, 11 points The only place where he screwed up personnel-wise was it turned out that he probably should have found more minutes for Mirotic, especially since we went to OT

Main thoughts: -Game 2, already, but D Rose has to be healthy -Pau Gasol is not fit for Thibodeau's defense. Lazy, slow. We'll see if he improves unlike Boozer. He does have size which helps his defense when they run right at him. -Taj played very badly down the stretch run. Just hurt? Hopefully. -Having Jimmy back will help on both ends. Since CLE doesn't have a Wade-like guy on O, we don't have the problem of picking who he guards. -Snell had a couple stinkers but overall looked pretty good and might have earned him a place in the rotation, at least when we need a long defender on the wing. -Cavs don't really look that good. We match up well with Love, Kyrie sucks. LBJ is LBJ. Thompson killed us tonight and exposed a general weakness that Pau can't box out but I don't expect him to play that well all the time. Varejao had several lucky buckets as well.

What a f***ing stupid call. Officials never wanted us to have this one

Hope Taj playing like horses*** down the stretch is just a remnant of the ankle injury

Taj again.

Both guys off their feet

This Cleveland team doesn't scare me at all. They're good, but no juggernaut.

I'd prognosticate that we'll see Pau in the Boozer role until he shows some ability to move his feet and hustle defensively

Pau caught being lazy on defense again

Taj has been the single worst player on the floor for the past 3-5 minutes

Overall, officiating wasn't too bad but sticking that call in there to ensure the game got tied is just awful

Now, you have to get the last shot. No chucking it up early like last possession, which very well may have cost us the game

That call is unforgivably bad. This is the s*** that makes you not believe in the integrity of the game. How do you call that?

Kirk is our healthy point guard.

KIRK!!!!!! DERRICK WHO?!?!?!?

And then a good no-call between Noah and Love.