Jake

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 10:38 PM) Rose started slow but he really popped right before halftime and played well for the rest of the game. Watch your words...

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 5, 2014 -> 02:40 PM) So all a bunch of BS. Anyone can pick a number out of a hat and say, those are the probabilities, although they may be wrong. There is no way to really confirm any accuracy. He was pretty accurate with the electoral college last Presidential election. FWIW, Wang (Princeton) is trying to improve certainty (not just being right is better, but being right with higher probability). Nate Silver has tried to take an approach where it's okay that he gives relatively weak probability to his predictions.

Jimmy looks just unreal, though. I can't wait to pay him all the millions

The second Rose steps back onto the court, Thibs is working him too hard and it will be our downfall.

I'd like to keep Beli, but not for that price. Non-tendering him makes us unable to re-sign him, right?

I don't know if it's wishful thinking or what, but I've had this dream that Republicans act less awful once they feel like they are in control

Now looking like an almost complete blood bath for Republicans. Will be interesting. They will be gaining some control right as the country is relatively crisis-free, all the favorite indicators improving. Will Obama be credited with those things the same way he was blamed back when they were worse? POTUS election in 2016 looking exceedingly meaningful as it will be hard for Dems to get Congressional control

Remember how we hoped the margins in the first two Senate elections would clue us in as to how the error in polling was? Well, they're in opposite directions. We thought McConnell would win by about 7%, but it looks like it will be in excess of 10%. We thought Shaheen would win by about 2.5%, but it looks like it will be in excess of 5%.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 02:44 PM) It's not an easy thing, even at the state level. That's partly why so few run, in either party. Think about the impacts: --Dragging your family and potentially others into the media spotlight to no fault of their own --Time demands are pretty huge, especially during campaign season --It is nearly impossible to keep up a "regular" job while serving --You are away from home and family a substantial part of the year --Even if you do your best to do the job well, you will be constantly criticized all over --You're forced into fundraising, which is something many people are not comfortable doing --You are pulled into the games That's a lot to take on, especially for people who are older and have families (and really, there aren't many 20-somethings who could make a legit run anyway). That's a hard choice. This is why we have to offer a decent salary to elected officials. This gig has to compare favorably with "regular" jobs or there's no way "regular" people can consider doing it. As for me, beyond not wanting to derail my career aspirations, I don't know that I'd ever be up to asking all kinds of people for money, over and over.

Some essential knowledge for tracking the returns tonight - http://election.princeton.edu/2014/11/02/l...ses/#more-12161 http://election.princeton.edu/2014/10/31/h...-midterm-polls/ Basically, expect the average of the polls to be off in the same direction for nearly all races. There's no telling what direction it will be, so you'll have a good grasp of the results across the board by watching how the returns differ from the polling averages. The more polling that occurred within a given area, the better here - lots of congressional districts and even some states (Alaska) aren't polled often or well so don't read into those results too terribly much.

QUOTE (Alpha Dog @ Nov 3, 2014 -> 06:01 PM) Never happen. Could win by 15% and it wouldn't be a mandate, it would just be 'voters throwing a tantrum'. Of course, we would know that more voters are Democratic than are Republican, which casts doubt on what conclusions we should take from the outcome of congressional elections. According to data from the Princeton Election Consortium, Democrats would have to win by about 4.5% to have a 1-seat majority in the House. FWIW, the same forecasts (from Princeton Election Consortium) have control of the Senate being, essentially, a coin flip. Pollsters struggle with the natural selection biases that make opinion polling look more Republican than they are really are. That is, Republicans are more likely to have landlines and respond to these calls than Democrats. They all apply adjustments, but they all still leaned Republican in 2012 because they underestimated the voter turnout of Democrats. In mid-terms, traditionally there is a 2-3 point bias one way or the other. And it is not due to an intentional bias on the part of pollsters, but rather unforeseen changes in the electorate mixed with less polling data. Polls are actually getting worse year after year as well, since there aren't really as many universal ways to reach people like there was in the day of near-universal landlines.

It would be way too soon to can Emery, IMO. You can't evaluate GMs this quickly. I'd also say this is rather quick to pull the plug on a head coach, too. You put yourself in a position where suddenly you have to fire another coach immediately if he goes sub-.500 . . . shortly thereafter, you're the Raiders. Or something.

Frontload the contract while you can afford it. You won't hate yourself as much later on and it might make him tradeable if things don't work out so well.

We spent a lot of time coasting in this game

And if you're using the provided router functionality within the modem, I'd suggest not doing that and just getting your own router.

Turns out he actually sprained both of his ankles, lol. To sustain a minor injury like this and bounce back will probably be a big mental hurdle for him to clear, though. He hasn't had many benign injuries on the basketball court for a while.

QUOTE (Jenksismyb**** @ Oct 31, 2014 -> 10:55 PM) Yep. Thibs sucked tonight. Use that depth on the bench. The depth that scores points. Taj - 28 minutes, 10 points Snell - 23 minutes, 10 points Brooks - 20 minutes, 11 points The only place where he screwed up personnel-wise was it turned out that he probably should have found more minutes for Mirotic, especially since we went to OT

Main thoughts: -Game 2, already, but D Rose has to be healthy -Pau Gasol is not fit for Thibodeau's defense. Lazy, slow. We'll see if he improves unlike Boozer. He does have size which helps his defense when they run right at him. -Taj played very badly down the stretch run. Just hurt? Hopefully. -Having Jimmy back will help on both ends. Since CLE doesn't have a Wade-like guy on O, we don't have the problem of picking who he guards. -Snell had a couple stinkers but overall looked pretty good and might have earned him a place in the rotation, at least when we need a long defender on the wing. -Cavs don't really look that good. We match up well with Love, Kyrie sucks. LBJ is LBJ. Thompson killed us tonight and exposed a general weakness that Pau can't box out but I don't expect him to play that well all the time. Varejao had several lucky buckets as well.

What a f***ing stupid call. Officials never wanted us to have this one

Hope Taj playing like horses*** down the stretch is just a remnant of the ankle injury

Taj again.

Both guys off their feet

This Cleveland team doesn't scare me at all. They're good, but no juggernaut.

I'd prognosticate that we'll see Pau in the Boozer role until he shows some ability to move his feet and hustle defensively

Pau caught being lazy on defense again