Jake

QUOTE (DukeNukeEm @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 08:27 PM) For home protection get a shotgun. Mossberg or Remington 870 would be perfect. Won't go through walls, great effect and it's a billion times easier to aim if you actually need to use it. You don't want to go pouring 9mm rounds through drywall, that's how bad things happen. If you absolutely must go handgun I very highly recommend the .45 Sig. I own one myself, lovely little thing. This is actually very good advice. A novice or a person that is simply nervous or aiming at a moving target is liable to unload a clip and not hit anyone. You won't miss with an unchoked shotgun

DeMarrrrrrr Also, I'm surprised there hasn't been any discussion of this: Jason Lloyd ‏@JasonLloydABJ Deng this a.m. on possibility of returning to CHI next season: "Maybe they'll offer me 3yrs, $30 million. That might be an option to take." K.C. Johnson ‏@KCJHoop 7h Apparently, the art of sarcasm is dead. Deng was tweaking Bulls' 3 yr./$30M offer. He's not coming back in free agency. Of course, to your average person, $30M isn't a f***ing joke

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 01:50 PM) I don't get how people were surprised by this stuff. Presidents have been doing this for decades. Am I the only one who remembers the Echelon outrage? Looking back even further, the US kept files on tons of people during the Red Scare era, for no good reason. My assumption is that when it comes to the government, there is nothing private about our lives. Yeah, in some ways, we might even be better off now than some times in the past. I remember the FBI recording MLK having sex with mistresses and then giving the recordings to his wife. Then they would do all this s*** like write fake letters and send compromising/controversial photos to civil rights leaders, etc. They actively meddled in all of this s***! Maybe they're doing it now...and we just don't know. I'm not sure. I think it would be fairly difficult to hide. I know there were a lot of rumors that intelligence agencies were meddling with the Occupy movement, but I don't know how substantiated those claims were

We have a whole bunch of guys ready or almost ready that could plausibly become very valuable starters. There is nothing more valuable than good starting pitchers on their rookie deals. There is nothing riskier than veteran pitchers on market priced FA deals. Given all the other rolls of the dice we're taking in '14, let's go ahead and figure out which of these guys will be valuable instead of forcing a veteran FA pitcher into the mix to become an immediate time bomb with a high salary and aging arm

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 05:42 PM) Gillaspie/Keppinger platoon will put up better numbers than Davidson would in 2014 and we're already paying them. Let's see if Davidson can become a better fielder and at least put up some Phegley numbers in AAA. Some Josh Fields numbers. (*these are terrible hitters who nonetheless displayed more success in AAA than Davison has) The dude batted .280 with a .350 OBP along with 17 HR in 115 games. He then went to MLB and posted an almost .800 OPS over 31 G. I don't want him to put up "Phegley numbers" anywhere, because Phegley numbers involve a .522 OPS and the lowest wRC+/OPS+ in baseball among everyone who batted as many times as he did and a career full of sub-.700 OPS, powerless seasons in the minors. Davidson has hit over 20 HR in every full pro season he has played. He hit very well in AAA. He has hit very well at every level he has played. He went on to have very serviceable numbers in MLB in limited time. Give me him over that lot -- we should absolutely be expecting him to outproduce a Gillaspie and Keppinger platoon the very moment he steps foot on the Spring Training diamond.

QUOTE (chw42 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 04:15 PM) And he would have gotten away with it if it wasn't for that meddling internet. Seriously, can you imagine the days before the internet where you can say s*** like that and people will believe you since they can't easily fact-check? I can't tell you how often I see people get hung up on things that are so easily google-able. Don't spend more than 60 seconds on any piece of factual information in conversation without pulling out your smartphone and just figuring it out.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 03:49 PM) Since PHegley does have options, sending him to AAA to start the year and going from there is a sensible move. However, here's the one question to consider...what happens if he outhits everyone in ST by a fairly good amount? That's the scenario it would take for us to consider putting him on the team right? I'm not against letting the coaching staff evaluate and allow production to (an extent) dictate the winner of that position. QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 04:31 PM) Wow, that's a good detailed write-up Jake. Really though, you are reinforcing everything I said, except trying to put overall hitting values on his years in the minors. You have to take his history into account, you cannot look at overall hitting numbers per-level with him and have it make any sense. I guess my argument is mainly that we can't ignore those numbers, even if we do take into account the very meaningful health obstacles. When we try to decide if the beginning of his 2013 is meaningful, we look at whatever other evidence we have...and that evidence is bleak. Incomplete, certainly. Given the other "healthy version of Phegley" evidence we have is him being MLB's worst hitter and trying to set records for passed balls allowed, I honestly don't want to see him anywhere near the MLB roster before he hits well in AAA again. Of course, even if he starts to see some of that upside as a hitter, I am seriously worried about his value as a defender. It seems like scouts have always wanted to discount his good throwing numbers, but even if those will persist, the PB issue is mindblowing. Can we teach him not to do that? How do you teach a catcher to...catch?

I remember getting into an argument with a Cubs fan teammate back in high school. I asked him what he has to say about the Sox winning a World Series in 2005 while it's been almost 100 years longer since the Cubs did. "Wins don't matter, bro"

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 03:25 PM) Why not? He's only 22 and hasn't dominated AAA. Kepp and Gillaspie can form a halfway decent lefty-righty platoon and keep it warm he's ready to stick for the long term. Keppaspie? Gillinger? So many possibilities! He did very well in AAA last year and really held his own in MLB. The only good reason for putting Davidson in AAA is the presence of Keppinger and Gillaspie. IMO, those two don't make a compelling reason to keep our best MLB ready prospect in the minors

Phegley - 2009, 214 PA, low-A Kannapolis = wRC+ of 94 with 9 HR to save his .224/.277 line 2010 - 18 PA in rookie, 99 PA in high-A (111 wRC+! yeah!), 79 PA in AA - 98 wRC+ 2011 - 394 PA in AA, 75 wRC+ with the following counting stats = 7 HR, 50 RBI and .242/.282/.368 90 PA in AAA, 101 wRC+, .253/.337 2012 - 421 PA in AAA, 87 wRC+, .266/.306/.373, 6 HR and 48 RBI 2013 - 258 PA in AAA, 166 wRC+, .316/.368/.597, 15 HR and 41 RBI 213 PA in MLB, 34 wRC+, .206/.223/.299, 4 HR and 22 RBI 34 wRC+ was, by a fairly wide margin, the worst of any player with 213 PA in MLB last season. His 59 wRC+ in July (this is roughly Flowers-level production) turned in 28 in August and 17 in September. Put another way, after his first 7 games he posted a 21 wRC+. For those that like OPS, that's .472. He walked 5 times in 65 games. I can't express how bad he played in MLB last year. Is he that bad? Probably not. But this is every bit as relevant as his one big flare-up in MiLB when we try to decide whether he is remotely tolerable as a big league regular in 2014. Let's also bear in mind that he allowed an unbelievable 8 passed balls along with 5 errors. Add in 3 more errors and 8 more passed balls in AAA. Year by year defense: 2009 - 47 games, 11 PB, 7 E 2010 - 33 games, 8 PB, 3 E 2011 - 99 games, 20 PB, 5 E 2012 - 96 games, 12 PB, 3 E 2013 - 122 games, 16 PB, 8 E Outside of 60 magical AAA games in 2013, he's been a "meh" player at best on all extended stays at a given level. This indubitably influenced some by injuries/health. His health past just raises questions, to which we lack many answers. It doesn't mean we can safely assume that a healthy Phegley would have done really well as a minor leaguer. We just know that he's struggled mightily to produce at a league-average level on a consistent basis until he was a 25-year-old in AAA. On draft day, here are portions of BA's comments, which start by giving him credit for a great college career at the plate It then goes on to mention that scouts love his makeup and believe he'll work hard to fix these things. 2009 he is ranked #11 prospect, his best such ranking: 2010, #26 2011, #19 2012, #18 Some BP comments: 2013 - Phegley changed several aspects of his game last year. On defense, thanks to full health, he cut down passed balls, while continuing to throw out almost half of would-be base thieves. On offense, a more aggressive approach cut down on all of his three-true-outcome rates: strikeouts, walks, and homers. Catchers often develop late, and many players who've had long careers as starting catchers have been less advanced at age 24 than Phegley. Of course, he'll need to keep making changes to improve, and there are no guarantees. 2012 - Catcher Josh Phegley had surgery to remove his spleen before putting in a full season behind the dish; he has a strong arm, power potential, and there's no questioning his toughness, but he still struggles mightily to fulfill his Prime Directive: keep the ball from hitting the backstop. 2011 - After missing most of 2010 upon diagnosis of a rare blood disorder (ITP), catching prospect Josh Phegley's career is in doubt, but he'll give it another shot in 2011. 2010 - A supplemental first-round pick last June, Josh Phegley has the power and patience rarely found in a catcher, but many scouts think he has no chance to stay at the position. At the height of his hot streak, they had this to say: I love the guy, I hope he hits really well and becomes our guy, it isn't entirely impossible that he does well enough, but I wouldn't bet on it. The real question is whether his overall value to the team is 2nd or 3rd in the Flowers/Phegley/Nieto trio. What I would do: more AAA. We need more info, he clearly needs more reps, and he has to learn to catch a f***ing ball. I've never seen a guy who is pretty great at blocking pitches yet still has a terrible passed ball problem. It is not a non-issue. His minor league career averages would have him with 25 passed balls if he catches 100 games. In the past nine seasons (an arbitrary selection just so I got several years of data), only two catcher seasons have above 20 - one was Saltalamacchia (Wakefield) and the other was Wilin Rosario. There have been 20 such seasons in that timespan that have more than 10 and 7 of them had knuckleballers on their team. This is a really big deal because his arm can't make up for this. Can he just suddenly stop having passed balls? I don't know.

Jon Garland or bust! Get the gang back together!

Was looking through episodes of PBS's Frontline - it is really quite telling how often they reported on the growing intelligence/spying over several years long before it became a major part of public discussion. If only people bothered to pay attention to PBS

I'm rooting for Phegley and it isn't impossible that he succeeds, but he is not and has never been a good prospect. He's small, he had never produced at any level until repeating AAA for the third season at age 25, and he is not a good defender. These things have always been true of him. He's had health problems, but he's also never done much. I wouldn't put all my eggs in his basket. He's a guy who at his best looks unlikely to be much better than average with a negative value defense, decent arm but not an amazing record of throwing runners out, and a bat that has traditionally been low average, very low OBP, and low power.

Davidson shouldn't start the year in AAA

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 10:58 AM) I think giving up this early on Phegley is a terrible idea. He looked like a guy who needed to be in AAA a little longer. First success ever last year in AAA, then comes up and was absolutely the worst hitter in MLB when he came up. Probably could have used some more seasoning. We shall see. I've had the feeling that if one of Phegley/Flowers needs to be a backup, they like Flowers. If one has to be a starter, they like Phegs

If you're a marginal, almost-a-rotation-player guy or a not-close-to-starter guy, you come to Chicago. Thibs is going to get your ass paid

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 10:29 AM) I am sure the north side is in meltdown with this as another failure up there under Theo. If Theo is good at anything, it is back-breakingly bad FA contracts

At least one of Viciedo/De Aza/Gillaspie/Keppinger/Dunn/Konerko has to go, and preferably two. Keppinger and ADA would be top candidates to go, in a vacuum. Keppinger because he just doesn't fill a need and doesn't look like he will in the future either, given how many right-handed and switch-hitting infielders we have near the majors. De Aza is a good player to have on the team, but he is older and ought to have trade value. Unlike Keppinger, though, you can only really trade De Aza if you get something rather useful in return. Going into the season with a 4-man outfield isn't the worst thing in the world, but right now there is simply no way to have Davidson as your starting 3B without dumping one of the infielders. Gillaspie can be useful as one of our very few LH bats, plays 3B better than Kepp, and hopefully we are trying to teach him to play 2B so he can provide some utility depth -- not to mention he is just young and cheap and has greater than zero value for us.

At least one of Viciedo/De Aza/Gillaspie/Keppinger/Dunn/Konerko has to go, and preferably two. Keppinger and ADA would be top candidates to go, in a vacuum. Keppinger because he just doesn't fill a need and doesn't look like he will in the future either, given how many right-handed and switch-hitting infielders we have near the majors. De Aza is a good player to have on the team, but he is older and ought to have trade value. Unlike Keppinger, though, you can only really trade De Aza if you get something rather useful in return. Going into the season with a 4-man outfield isn't the worst thing in the world, but right now there is simply no way to have Davidson as your starting 3B without dumping one of the infielders. Gillaspie can be useful as one of our very few LH bats, plays 3B better than Kepp, and hopefully we are trying to teach him to play 2B so he can provide some utility depth -- not to mention he is just young and cheap and has greater than zero value for us.

It's not foiled if you didn't want to be paying them $40M per year indefinitely into the future

At equal contracts? I'm picking Tanaka. This guy was just as dominant at what he did, but against much better competition. At half the price, less hypothetical risk of injury...I'm happy with Abreu

That puts NYY at around $205-210M payroll for this year. The only thing worse than giving a huge contract is to double it by paying luxury taxes on it

Welcome back to salary hell, New York!

QUOTE (Downtown518 @ Jan 22, 2014 -> 08:41 AM) Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal BREAKING: Tanaka to #Yankees, seven years, $155M, opt-out after fourth year. okay then, never wanted the guy

Can Joakim fill in at PG? He would will his way to success