Jake

I still think LeBron would fail the mental test of getting f***ed up every other time he goes to the rack

If you put Peyton on the Bears and McCown/Cutler on the Broncos, which team is better?

Welp, I won by .4 points to retain my first place spot in my better league

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ Nov 18, 2013 -> 04:36 PM) Yup, the percentage might be 13% when they're at their own 16 to start the drive, but that probability will change with each and every play. He knew that. He's basically just explaining what his beginning state of mind was, which is that there was no expectation of them scoring a TD. By the time that seemed to be a possibility to him, he explained the other things that affected his decisionmaking.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 18, 2013 -> 09:58 AM) I was all aboard the Josh McCown train until my buddy pointed out that he is 34 already. I was shocked. I am hesitant to give Cutler a long-term deal, but it would take big, big balls to let him go after what we've gone through on the qb front over the past 3 decades. Well, you wouldn't retain McCown and dump Cutler unless you had a rookie/other young QB in the fold who you hoped to pass things off to after one or two seasons.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 18, 2013 -> 10:07 AM) It is worth mentioning that Dunn was still far, far more productive when he was actually on the field compared to DHing. At this point, it's pretty impossible to ignore. Indeed. Kind of hard to speculate on whether that will continue. I still regard the sample size as a bit too small for certainty, but the difference is nonetheless worth attention

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 18, 2013 -> 10:07 AM) It is worth mentioning that Dunn was still far, far more productive when he was actually on the field compared to DHing. At this point, it's pretty impossible to ignore. Indeed. Kind of hard to speculate on whether that will continue. I still regard the sample size as a bit too small for certainty, but the difference is nonetheless worth attention

Let's think about some good case scenarios. We'll just say Alexei duplicates his past season: 3.1 WAR on the strength of great baserunning and defense and an 86 wRC+, the average figure for a SS We'll tweak De Aza a little bit. Instead of the 97 wRC+ last year, we'll say his good case scenario involves him posting a 106 wRC+ as he did in 2012. Likewise, he'll play replacement-level defense like he did in 2012 as opposed to about 1/3 win below replacement level. Bear in mind this guy was worth almost an entire win on the strength of his CF defense in his rookie year. Anyway: 3.0 WAR (2.2 last year) Gordon doesn't break out, but does his usual mixture of hot and cold, ending with the same 88 wRC+ he had last year. This time, he plays over 150 games though. No change to defense: 1.5 WAR (1.0 last year in 100 games) Gillaspie will appear to have a much better season, but play significantly fewer games as he more or less platoons with Keppinger. Much like he did last year, Gillaspie posts a league-average 100 wRC+ overall. This assumes he bats almost exclusively against RHP and makes a very marginal gain against both LHP and RHP: I'll go with the steamer projection of 1.3 WAR (0.7 last year) Keppinger will obviously step up quite a bit in a good case scenario and there's no reason to think he will duplicate his worst career season. To avoid going overboard, we'll say he comes far short of his better seasons with the bat. 128 wRC+ and 60 wRC+ in 2012/2013. I'll just refer to his career averages and predict a 105 wRC+ on the strength of him duplicating his career average 121 wRC+ against LHP. To protect him from RHP and protect us from his sub-standard D, his games played goes down: 1.5 WAR (-1.5 last year) Garcia will obviously play well in this scenario. He posted a 109 wRC+ with the White Sox last season and we'll say he sticks with that. His defense in a very small sample has never rated well, but for now we'll say he plays RF at replacement level; not sure if that is an optimistic projection or not. 2.5 WAR (compare to 2.0 WAR for Rios in 100 games for us last season) Dayan will hit well, too. His good runs will finally start to definitively outweigh his bad. After posting 98 and 96 wRC+ in his two seasons, he'll step that up. He had a monster 178 wRC+ vs LHP in 2012 vs. a perplexing 89 in 2013. We'll expect him to mash LHP in 2014, but maybe not on the all-world level of the past. In the spirit of optimism, we will say that he does replicate his 98 wRC+ vs RHP (was 72 in 2012), with the help of strategic days off. Steamer thinks he'll post a 108 overall wRC+ with a 1.6 WAR. I'm going to say he goes 115 wRC+ and 2.5 WAR, with just the slightest improvements on D. He's been more or less exactly at replacement level previously. Flowers. I'm going to say he wins the job as he outplayed Phegley by a great deal last season, though we actually expect a new player to brought in to presumably get the lion's share of the starts. I'll predict that a. he goes back to playing solid D and b. he hits better, but not good. His 59 wRC+ does not go back to the 91 and 94 in previous season, but rather 79. He will post 1.0 WAR, something he's done before in a part time role, rather than the break even replacement level he did last year. I'd argue that his value is actually unchanged by him playing a backup role BTW. Dunn! I won't go overboard even in this good case scenario. He posted 115 and 105 wRC+ in 2012 and 2013. I'm just going to say his season is more like 2012 than 2013 and that he plays little to no defense. 2.0 WAR, roughly average for DH. His LH bat proves valuable breaking up our righties, howver. Abreu. This is, of course, the hardest. For the purposes of this argument, let's say his absolute ceiling is an MVP - 150 wRC+ type 1Bman. His absolute floor, we'll say is 90 wRC+ - this is like saying the worst he can do is a little worse than Dayan has done, which I think is fair as a floor. He's going to have a great year in my good case scenario, but nowhere near his ceiling. As our best hitter, he puts up a 130 wRC+ and plays league average defense. Compare that offensive production to Paulie's 2012 (Paulie's 2012, of course, was more like 2 months of 200 wRC+ and 3 months of 80 wRC+). He will be worth about 4.0 WAR. Pitching stays the same. Bench players are neither good nor bad. That's a playoff team. Those are all intentionally optimistic projections, but not best case scenarios. Several players hardly change and only young players produce at a level they have never done previously (Viciedo, Abreu, Garcia). In real life, you'd have some of these guys going below these expecations and others going above even in the good case scenario - but this is just a way of looking at it.

QUOTE (GoSox05 @ Nov 18, 2013 -> 09:11 AM) Really only one of those INT was really bad, the first one. The second one JPP just made a crazy play on it and the last INT didn't really matter cause the game was about over. What I like about him is he isn't afraid to throw down field. Most back ups come in and just throw check down after check down. Tolzien yesterday was for 4 for 4 on passes throw over 20 yards and 6 for 6 over 15 yards. He should be have a edge on the back up spot next year.

Yeah, I'm hesitant to speculate how the defense would be if "the Loveman" were here but I tend to think it would be better if it was different at all

As frustrated as I was with Mel Tucker early in the season with a largely healthy defense, I've become impressed with how we are playing with a completely decimated defense. The D isn't playing good, but we are actually staying in games now. I hope we can keep it up and continue to get some production from rookies and other relative unknowns. Other side note: how completely f***ing s***ty must Cornelius Washington be to not get a single snap on defense throughout all this bulls***? People thought he might go as high as the second round but he's been beaten out for playing time by guys like David Bass (who admittedly has done okay)

FWIW, the franchise tag for QBs this season was 15 million bucks, which would be a substantial yearly raise for Cutler

I don't want to be that fan, btw, but at what point do you start thinking about keeping McCown next season and letting Cutler walk? I'm not about to argue that McCown is actually a better player, but we're rapidly approaching salary cap hell and Cutler is likely to be really f***ing expensive. If Trestman is going to turn any ol' asshole into a starting caliber QB, how much do you want to invest in Cutler? I have to think it has at least crossed the minds of Emery and Trestman that maybe, just maybe, it could make sense to keep McCown, draft a QB high, and invest in the defense. Either way, I'd really hesitate investing in Cutler long term. Franchise tag seems like the smartest way to keep him.

I am feeling really good about Jon Bostic. After a rough first appearance and first start, he's been excellent. He still needs to learn some discipline in the run game, but he's still doing very well. I'm shocked how well he's been in pass coverage. He leads all inside linebackers in coverage snaps per reception with 24, per PFF. The last time they measured a player that high was Urlacher in 2008. We'll see if Bostic can keep pace.

Family Recites Lord's Prayer Together as Tornado Bears Down on Their Central IL Home

Win or lose today, I want to give Trestman a lifetime contract. He has really made chicken dinner out of chicken s*** with McCown.

So impressed w/ McCown

RG3 had 4 points a couple minutes into the 4th. Finished w/ 24

Hold + sack will kill a drive quickly. Gotta see some flash of competence from the offense now

This looks like a blowout in progress

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/blackhawks...altender-raanta Raanta recalled, Khabibulin has lower body injury of unknown severity

Moon Mullin speculates about whether this is a potential MNF do-over

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 17, 2013 -> 12:35 PM) That's not what would happen. They would take the fans to the field museum to wait it out as well as use the parts of the stadium with cover. That sounds like a smart thing to do.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 17, 2013 -> 12:30 PM) I'm in logan square, I can't see more than a few feet outside. It's just a football game, who makes the call here? NFL or Chicago? Why take this risk? Not sure. I assume the operators of the stadium will make recommendations to the referees/NFL overseers. I'm not sure if it would be good to get 70,000 people to leave the stadium and start driving around the suburbs either

My folks are in Central IL. Baseball-sized hail in Bloomington, tornadoes in Peoria. Several tornadoes sprinkled around other rural areas as well. Peoria TV station knocked off the air.