Jake

In Greg's defense, the Shark trade had loss all over it from the start

Big difference from last year's team: at the break last year, the Sox position players had a cumulative -3.1 WAR, by far the worst in the league. We also had a team 76 wRC+, worst in the league and by far worst in the AL. This year we're 26th in position player WAR, so it isn't as if we're setting the world on fire, but the bats are not so far from league average and the kind of leap necessary to push us into the playoffs isn't nearly as far-fetched. If Morneau is a 110 wRC+ bat at DH and Abreu returns to 2015 form (not an amazing year by any stretch) while everything else more or less holds steady, you're not far off right there. Have a couple things break our way and we're not unworthy.

Of note, regarding Anderson's defense: Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) gives him a +3 thus far, on the strength of Runs on Plays Made (rPM) with 0s for Runs on Good Fielding Plays (rGFP) and Runs on Double Plays (rGDP). That's a good pace and matches my eye test that he's making most of the plays he should, doesn't look the best on double plays, and hasn't completed any real eye-popping plays. Revised Zone Rating which is computed a bit more transparently also likes him. It's simply a percentage of the time he makes the play on balls hit into the zones that a shortstop fields at least 50% of the time. He's .830 on this metric, which is 6th best among SS with at least 100 innings. UZR gives him an overall 0.6, which computes out to 3.7 over 150 games. Not "oh my god" good, but good. This is another stat that is relative to the average SS, so being above is a good sign. All of his value in UZR comes from not making errors, while he is slightly negative (-0.3) in both range and double plays. This is in basic agreement with DRS, though it's a hair more conservative. I think most of us like him from the eye test as well, it's definitely a far cry from the player that just a year ago many still wondered whether he would be good enough to spend any MLB time at the position. You can see some of the roughness around the edges, especially with footwork on double plays, but he exudes baseball talent on defense IMO. He's been surprisingly sure-handed on routine balls and you can see flashes of that big range and playmaking ability. I'm not sure whether he's truly an above average SS or is benefiting from the kinds of opportunities so far, but he looks like a real MLB SS and perhaps a good one in the long run.

The main thing about what the Sox are doing—IMO—is little to foul up the long term. I continue to strongly doubt the benefits of a full-on, let's be the worst team style of rebuild, especially for a franchise like the Sox that would seriously lose revenue without at least a little bit of hope. The payroll is in good shape looking forward, you have some nice core pieces and your veterans aren't particularly expensive. Tim Anderson, Carson Fulmer, and Zack Collins are all guys to get excited about. We've been conservatively building the team and I don't see anything wrong with that. I think if there was a big, bold move to make that would really take the team a big step ahead, they'd make it. But I sure haven't seen it available. Heyward? Upton? Alex Gordon? Cespedes seemed to be the worst fit in the offseason but is the only one hitting in the actual season. In the end, it turned out a CF would have been the best fit in the first place. We brought on Frazier and Lawrie at very little expense and nobody is stopping us from flipping them at the deadline a year from now if things aren't looking up. To me, this is the kind of approach we had when we won the WS. The 2005 team was filled with question marks and the direction of the franchise was unclear. But we kept those core guys around and tried to bring on extra talent without mortgaging the franchise. It worked out. Maybe that was just a fluke and it shouldn't be a model for the future, I can't say.

Yeah a best case for us in the anti-Cubs crowd is they gut their system trying to add this year but don't ultimately get a ring.

I suspect if you drop the one abysmal outing against KC from his non-save stats, those would look good too.

While I've enjoyed watching them struggle, I still see no reason to bet against them as divisional champs at the least.

FWIW, it was not an ordinary 5-0 situation. There were at least 2 men on and frankly I wouldn't have been comfortable staying with Duke or bringing anyone else short of Jones in for that situation.

QUOTE (Leonard Zelig @ Jul 9, 2016 -> 04:54 PM) My wife just won this Oscar Blues Yeti Hopper 30 in a raffle at the liquor store. This thing sells for $400. We are also fans of Oscar Blues, and have been to both of their breweries in Colorado and North Carolina. Wow, sweet deal. Love Oskar Blues

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Jul 9, 2016 -> 11:01 AM) I thought he was on a run of some good starts ?? Sorry about the confusing wording, I mean Ranaudo is on a run of bad starts.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jul 9, 2016 -> 06:43 PM) While this is true the fact remains that by WAR Scott Carroll is less than 3 ganes worse than Chris Sale. I just don't buy it. That's because in the case of Scott Carroll part of his value is the fact that he hasn't pitched that much. The more the two of them pitch, the bigger the discrepancy gets. This is not to mention that WAR very nicely handles the case of a guy who pitched just a couple innings–he can't do much either way in such little time. It's a counting stat, not a pure prediction of whether Scott Carroll or Chris Sale would be better given the same amount of playing time. It's like saying "I can't believe Tim Anderson is only 2 RBI better than JB Shuck." Well, you need some context to decide what it all means, especially playing time.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 9, 2016 -> 12:39 PM) I totally forgot about the trouble between Rondo and Wade. Wade supposedly injured Rondo on purpose and the next season Rondo clothselimed Wade in a game. Good luck with that Fred. When you cheapshot as many people as those guys have, it's probably hard to hold a grudge over one in particular

Due to a mixture of injuries and inadequate talent, the most immediate and most realistically fixed problem with the current team is the worse half of the MLB bullpen. Importantly, I see no reason to believe this can be fixed up internally. Let's start by identifying the definite major leaguers who belong on the team: Robertson (3.22 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 5.0 BB/9) Jones (2.54 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 1.6 BB/9) Duke (2.73 ERA, 10.7 K/9, 3.6 BB/9) Jennings (1.67 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 4.5 BB/9) Albers (5.17 ERA, 5.7 K/9, 3.4 BB/9) Then we have the guys who are arguably not MLB players but are in the MLB bullpen: Beck (MLB: 8.10 ERA, 6.8 K/9, 9.5 BB/9) (AAA: 4.47 ERA, 6.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9) Ynoa (MLB:4.32 ERA, 11.8 K/9, 5.4 BB/9) (AA/AAA: 3.90 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 3.9 BB/9) And their potential replacements, who IMO still fit the bill as non-MLB players: Tommy Kahnle (MLB: 6.23 ERA, 4.2 K/9, 10.4 BB/9) (AAA: 3.00 ERA, 12.0 K/9, 4.0 BB/9) Matt Purke (MLB: 5.50 ERA, 7.5 K/9, 6.0 BB/9) (AAA: 4.34 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 5.8 BB/9) Scott Carroll (MLB: 11.57 ERA, 7.7 K/9, 3.9 BB/9) (AAA: 5.27 ERA, 4.5 K/9, 3.7 BB/9) And I'll list some plausible callups who haven't been used yet: Brad Goldberg (AAA: 2.37 ERA, 8.3 K/9, 4.5 BB/9) Blake Smith (AAA: 5.01 ERA, 10.0 K/9, 3.7 BB/9) AAA is virtually devoid of players who have a good walk rate, good strikeout:walk rate, and ERA. Blake Smith, who is apparently a converted position player, is as close as it gets but has a poor ERA (5 home runs allowed). Goldberg has had a consistently high walk rate in the minor leagues. Kahnle has a high walk rate in AAA and has had obscenely high walk rates in the majors and minors previously. Purke has had a consistent problem with extremely high walks. Carroll's walk rate is okay, but he's never been able to strike people out and gets hit hard consistently. And it's worth just listing the root of the problem, injuries: Petricka (60-day, likely out for season) Putnam (15-day, taking long shot at avoiding season-ending surgery) Webb (60-day, out for season) All we're left with are the shots in the dark of Carson Fulmer and Zack Burdi. Fulmer has >5 BB/9 but that has gone down to 3.73 BB/9 since the beginning of June and an 11.8 K/9 in that same period (9.3 total). There's a chance he could get the job done, but he is so wild in and outside the zone I seriously worry that he'd have to go through another painful break-in period in MLB. As far as Burdi goes, he's allowing an 1.100 OPS against and neither the walks or Ks look especially good yet. He might just put it all together in a snap, but waiting on it for this season is a fool's errand. At this point, if you could just clone Albers and Jennings you'd probably get 1-2 extra wins down the stretch. Ynoa shows some signs of being serviceable, so maybe he can stick around. Beck's stuff has been impressive, but he has no idea where it's going. Purke and Kahnle have looked absolutely clueless. I don't see any great reasons to make room on the 40-man for Goldberg or Smith. Please, KW/Hahn braintrust, get us a mediocre reliever so we don't have to run some of these guys out there.

Anyone else a little unsure that Fulmer is going to not just s*** the bed in MLB? I know he's on a run of a few bad starts, but Ranaudo seems like the option fro a spot start to me.

MLB.tv is usually 30-60 seconds behind so I never bother

I've always enjoyed the derby and the timing element made it all the better.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 27, 2016 -> 10:54 AM) So for those who have regularly seen his at bats, is he swinging at everything, or is he just not taking any walks. The good walkers lay-off pitches just outside the zone that are hittable. It's better to lay off than to try to hit them in general, but you can still be productive. Now if he's swinging at balls in the dirt and stuff, then there could be issues. I like Anderson at leadoff because it pushes Eaton down to #2 and Eaton is the best hitter for the 2 hole on this roster. He's also the best hitter for the 1 hole, but I think the 2 hole gap was much greater. I've seen several instances where he has seemed able to recognize pitch type on the fly and adjust. I remember back when I played, I'd sometimes get so tuned into ID'ing the pitch that I didn't take the next step and think hard about the location. My opinion is that he shows some real aptitude up there and has upside as a guy who isn't an extreme low-walk player like someone like Alexei was much of his career. He may or may not get his Ks down to a below average level, but he has enough contact skills that I expect it to get much more manageable as he improves. He's had a pretty consistent pattern in the minors of high Ks and low/no BBs early, with both of those numbers improving steadily as he stays at that level.

Man would this team be tougher to watch without Mirotic on it. He's had some flaws, but damn that guy can straight up win you games. At least at the aesthetic level, if the team isn't going to be great I want the guy who's going to drain some 35 footers

Collins strikes me as a player that will get near the majors very quickly. It's harder to predict if he hits a wall in AA or AAA, but I think he will massacre lower minors pitching and that means he ends up a good couple months in AA or AAA away from a call-up.

I didn't realize that Cleuluis Rondon is still just 22 years old. I hope the Sox 1. Don't give up on him and 2. Don't insist on playing him above this level. I say that because the Sox, especially with players they seem to like, will often promote players in spite of either poor production or big warning signs at their previous level. This kid is just 22 and it makes sense to me to wait around and see if he can amass a good hitting line against lower-level pitching before pushing him up the ladder where he will inevitably perform poorly.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jun 27, 2016 -> 03:57 PM) Really want to see Fulmer get his K's and strike percentage up before moving up. I am very happy Beck came back from injury strong, but I really wish we could get more K power pitchers in pen. Maybe him going all out gets his velocity up and gets more swings and misses, but I wish he could have made it as a starter. Would have made a lot of things easier if Erik Johnson and Beck panned out. FWIW, in his brief run as a reliever in AAA Beck was striking out about 9 per 9 IP.

As for home/road splits, you can't attribute everything to the home ballpark. League-wide in a typical year players hit (on average) 7-10% better at home than on the road. Some guys just really benefit from the routine and familiarity more than others.

Portis had a crazy high usage rate, have to wonder how well he'll adjust to being more of a role player or facilitator at times

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 26, 2016 -> 07:13 PM) Joe Crede and Mark Buehrle were farm boys, as well. So was Jim Thome. Don't think that's the common thread, unless we want to start arguing Mike Trout came from a farm, too. I prefer wild-caught Trout QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 26, 2016 -> 07:31 PM) Someone posted an article in another thread showing that he has changed his swing. He now swings with more of an upper cut. This would cause the increased pop up rate and decreased line drives. I still think there is something about Comiskey that gets these guys to try to lift everything for a HR and really messes with them. Yeah there have been times where it almost seemed as if his mind is telling him when he should swing and what he can hit, but his mind assumes he has the swing he used to.

The main things I've been looking for: 1. Will he play so badly that it could permanently hurt his development? So far, that doesn't appear to be the case. 2. Will he be at least in the ballpark of the play we'd expect to have gotten from Rollins/Saladino? So far, we almost certainly haven't downgraded in that position unless you're a major Saladino nuthugger. Strikeouts are high and he hasn't drawn a walk yet, but that wasn't entirely unexpected. He has a lot of at bats where he looks like he has no chance, but he exudes talent and you can see it at the plate. Can't say if he's a defensive star just yet, but he's far from the guy that many scouts were matter-of-factly claiming could never play SS/the infield. He looks MLB-quality there, at the least.