Jake

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Jul 26, 2015 -> 04:37 PM) But Viciedo was just so bad. If he wasn't he'd be playing for someone in North America right now. As for Flowers, I just think you need to give more ABs to Soto. Especially coming off a night game. Unless there's some sort of paternal attachment with Rodon, I don't see why a guy who caught last night wasn't given a break today. Flowers isn't going to get any better getting fewer ABs, but we will do less damage. For the record, Viciedo is in AAA for the Oakland organization right now

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Jul 26, 2015 -> 02:31 PM) Fangraphs underestimates guys like Buehrle because he consistently outperforms his FIP due to his fielding and outstanding ability to hold runners on base. They recommend when looking at full career numbers for pitchers to use the RA9/WAR instead of the main one they show on the player pages.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 25, 2015 -> 11:33 AM) Which is odd though because if they're not factoring in BABIP it's hard to figure out how they come to the White Sox having such strong starters when our starters have given up 50 more earned runs than the A's. Fangraphs weights strikeouts a lot, they weight innings pitched a lot, so our guys do deserve to be up there, but man we're really, really outperforming our ERA on fWAR by a lot. The actual runs allowed aren't factored in. FIP is calculated solely from IP, BB, HBP, K, and HR allowed. The WAR calculation is a bit more complex. First of all, they have recently added ballpark adjustments since not every place a pitcher plays is equally easy to hit home runs in. And to convert FIP runs value (which is divorced from actual runs allowed) to wins, "run environment" is considered. That is, giving up X runs per Y innings is how likely to generate a win? In this sense, being an elite pitcher makes it easier to accumulate WAR because you require less run support to win, which is something included in the WAR calculation. Our staff is 2nd to last in the league in BIP-Wins, which is a fielding dependent metric that puts a value on how much BABIP has helped/hurt the pitcher. Some of this will be influenced by the pitcher but my opinion is that it has much more to do with the defense except in extreme cases. You can argue that ~33% of our pitching value over replacement is negated by the defense/BABIP. Interestingly, we are one of the best at LOB-Wins, which quantifies how much your pitchers benefit from stranding runners compared to average. This is another one that could be susceptible to luck, but other causes include holding runners on, catching basestealers, pitching better out of the stretch than others, and good use of relief pitchers. In the span of a season, FIP and its derived metrics are usually better predictors than ERA and its derived metrics. In the longer run, ERA-derived metrics are better descriptors of what happened in the past, though the Sox would be a case where it's going to be a bad measure no matter what because the terrible defense is held constant through the whole season.

QUOTE (Heads22 @ Jul 25, 2015 -> 11:04 AM) This includes a BABIP thats a chunk higher than everyone else thanks to us not playing defense the first third of the year. This is because BABIP has no role in FanGraphs' WAR calculation. It's based on FIP, a stat whose strength is ignoring bad BABIP luck/bad BABIP from bad fielding.

Also, I think the most practical gun regulation that could make a difference to the overall homicide rate, but probably not mass shootings, is putting restrictions on all transactions. We know that a huge portion of the guns used in crimes were purchased from private individuals, which conveniently is a method in many/most jurisdictions that requires no paperwork or oversight whatsoever. We like to talk about bad guys and good guys. Bad guys will get a gun on Craigslist or, more likely, just go to the shop with their friend or relative without a record and use them as a straw purchaser. There's a lot of mixed information about the exact sources of the guns used in crime and almost none that is up to date because the Republican Party has decided to disallow any federally-funded research on these topics. This is driven by the same fear that has so far prevented any sort of regulation in this area, which is that it will lead to a grand firearm registry which will somehow then lead to everyone losing their guns. I have to say, from a persuasion/communication standpoint, the gun registry boogeyman is especially brilliant. Things like prohibiting undocumented transfer of guns don't sound very unreasonable until you have been informed that this will facilitate a registry and that a registry will take your guns away. What we do know is that very few guns used in crimes are stolen, which at one point was assumed to be the prevailing source. In some areas, it seems that the main source is straw purchasers. In others, gun shows seem to reign supreme as a place for criminals to acquire weapons (sometimes still using straw buyers). What seems universal is that the vast, vast majority of guns used for criminal activity were originally purchased from a very small portion of FFLs (this includes gun shops and private individuals that sell guns bought from distributors/manufacturers). One study in the late 90s done by the government (once again, these studies are illegal now) found that 80% of dealers had never sold a weapon used for a crime and that half the guns use in crimes were sold by 1% of dealers. In some metros, one or two FFLs sold huge majorities of the weapons used illegally. The ATF was not allowed to do anything to these dealers or even share their names with the public. To my knowledge, the few legislative efforts to deal with "bad dealers" have all been rejected because gun registries.

A movie theater is in so many ways an awful place for a shooting to happen and nobody should be able to say with a straight face that a gun carried for self-defense would be useful in that particular situation. Sight is terrible so seeing the gunman will be difficult. Combine the sight problem with the crowd issue and you are taking a huge risk by firing a weapon because there are so few situations in which you can be sure that your bullet will miss innocents if it misses the active shooter. Then we have the secondary issue in that any other heroes in the audience may struggle to figure out which person firing their gun should be trusted. As people start standing and firing their weapons in the crowd, how should everyone else evacuate without waking in front of one of the several active shooters? It's just a very vulnerable position. As for this particular situation, I have some hunch that it may not have been all that premeditated. We know the guy was a hardcore right-wing type, but I don't see how this would accomplish much of anything. He didn't seem to conduct himself like he had a plan. I wonder if this is a situation where this already unstable person heard some audience member make a comment or something and just lost his cool. In the excitement of the moment and in realizing what had been done, he killed himself rather than face the consequences, which is not all that uncommon in these situations.

I think the team has been very watchable for about 3 or 4 weeks. A few guys have played a little better and the most aggravating thing, the defense, has gotten better. I'm not sure even how much more value it has produced but they aren't making terrible mental mistakes anymore. I can watch the team pitch its ass off, have a couple good defenders, and a few young guys that I can hope to see do well every time they bat.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jul 23, 2015 -> 05:36 PM) He has done a much better job drafting (albeit in much more favorable circumstances in both draft rules and slots), but he certainly struck out on the Eaton/Davidson/Garcia evaluations I'd say he got Eaton right -- don't forget that Eaton has had wRC+ of 101, 124, and 126 in the months since his dreadful April and now carries a season number of 98. He's a really important part of our team now and going forward. Davidson certainly isn't some big win and doesn't look like it will ever be, but it's worth mentioning that Addison Reed is pitching in AAA. The person we sent away was not good, so that's important to consider. Hahn was correct to try to trade away Reed. At first I thought you were referring to Leury Garcia and I was going to say that it probably wasn't some "this is who we thought was their best" evaluation. But Avisail has been disappointing, especially in one crucial way IMO --> if they thought he was going to be a competent defender, it appears they were very, very wrong. Given where he is developmentally, he can only be successful in a very specific way, which is carrying a strong average with good power numbers. He will subtract value with his defense and he walks so little that he'll have to earn everything he gets at the plate.

FWIW, Yordano's FIP before being demoted was essentially the same as last year (which was good), suggesting there was probably a large luck factor in his failures this year. Inherited runners scoring in particular played a huge role in his ERA being high.

I just enjoy hearing the talking points. "This deal will stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons." "This deal ensures that Iran will have nuclear weapons." We refuse to publicly agree on the main aspect of the deal. If you believe everyone is speaking honestly, the sides have come to the opposite conclusion about it.

It did look a little odd.

Speaking of NWA, I have this fear that the upcoming movie is going to be another white savior film where these poor boys couldn't get anywhere without the amazing Paul Giamatti. Maybe I'm wrong, I haven't looked much into it.

I think that people saying he has upside has a lot to do with him having some power potential and being a .150-ish ISO player. I also think playing in Charlotte doesn't invalidate his production, we have stats that account for this. The raw number may not be that informative, but in general I think it's fair to be excited about and hope for some power numbers.

Kasich almost seems okay, but then I remember this. After refusing to debate his Democratic challenger in the last gubernatorial election, he eventually did agree to sit down with the editors of prominent newspapers for a sorta-kinda debate. In that pseudo-debate, Kasich played this fun game where he pretended he had never heard of the challenger and could neither see nor hear him. It resulted in exchanges like this: For a grown man to conduct himself that way mostly mystifies me but also tells me it's not someone I'm about to endorse as the "good" Republican candidate (nor would I be a big fan of a Democrat acting this way--I'm sure some have). We only get so many unguarded glimpses at these people and this one is particularly unflattering. I'm also no fan of the actual policy being discussed or the havoc Kasich has wreaked on public education in this state, but that's beside the point.

At the same time, author isn't really wiling to argue that Quintana is better than any three of the Mets, when in fact he has proven a ton more than any of them. Quintana's run over the past three years has been really good.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 01:43 AM) So I caught a little bit of The Score on the way home today and Lawrence Holmes was talking advanced stats on how BAD this team is....so I did some work of my own.... So this season, the Sox TEAM OVERALL OFFENSIVE WAR is....drumroll..... -3.3!! That's a NEGATIVE number. We are BELOW replacement level, and Jose Abreu is a stud hitter. The Phillies, the 2nd worst team in baseball is at a 2.0 WAR. POSITIVE 2.0. That's a massive difference between 29th and 30th. We are also last in baserunning, at -17.6....last in wRC+ at 78 (An average offense is supposed to be 100)....last in defensive WAR at -39.4....We beat the Padres on team OBP...by .001....We beat the Royals on BB% by 0.1%....We beat the Braves in ISO power by .005..... Basically we are the worst or 2nd to worst at....getting on base.....power.....defense....baserunning....scoring........ But how about compared to EVERY TEAM SINCE THE YEAR 1900???? 115 years of baseball? Tens of thousands of teams?? 7th worst..... Wow. Depress yourselves at your own leisure.... http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=20,a Just a couple of weeks ago we were at -4.0. QUOTE (BigEdWalsh @ Jul 21, 2015 -> 02:55 AM) Well, if this is statistically the 7th worst offense of All Time and yet we have 42-48 record that might indicate that Robin Ventura's doing a pretty darn good job given the talent he has to work with. I'm just sayin'. According to FanGraphs' BaseRuns estimate, we have won more 6 games than our run scoring and run prevention abilities would lead you to expect. Only the Twins have outperformed more.

EJax wasn't pitching very badly. 3.19 ERA, 2.83 FIP. Strikeouts and walks weren't great but around career norms. Odd choice if you ask me, especially since you're adding a guy who is just as likely if not more likely to be cut in short order.

I always suspected his odd motion where he very quickly brings his arm up and then leaves it there made him less deceptive. For a guy who throws 100 with good movement, I always thought guys got surprisingly good swings on it.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 19, 2015 -> 02:00 PM) Such a straight shooter, tells it like it is and then sticks to his guns. You should be proud. Donald is also saying that he stands by what he said. Welcome to bizarro world. I suppose next he'll say "The McCains love me."

Since it's a DH, are they just calling him up to cover this game? He hasn't pitched all that well in Kanny..

QUOTE (flavum @ Jul 19, 2015 -> 11:29 AM) Perhaps I'm wrong, but I think Gillaspie had the least trade value among Bonifacio and Beckham. Not that either one of those guys will bring back much, but 12 days from now, teams may find some value with Beckham and Bonifacio on their benches that Gillaspie doesn't have. But they all could be gone by Aug 1. My feeling was that Conor might have the most value because of those three, Conor's the one you'd most like to start. If you had a team like the 2012 White Sox that is dying for a starting 3B, Conor would be a nice option that you'd have to give up very little in order to get.

In my town, Little League worked like this (wasn't formally associated with LL, just called itself that): -There was a brief, one-day tryout in which every player who signed up was graded by each of the league's coaches. The combined scores were used to create a player ranking (only available to coaches and commissioner). -A draft was conducted, with each coach taking his or her own son in the round he was slotted. -Each team had 11-13 players, but rarely would a team both have 13 players and have 13 players present at any game. -Every player batted throughout the entire game. You'd have a 1-11 or 12 or 13 batting order, so no pinch hitting and all that. -Every player needed to play the field at least 3 innings of every 6 inning game. There may have been special exceptions for when you had 13 players there. The worst players got the least playing time, but usually the amount of kids not coming to games for whatever reason meant everyone got well above the minimum. I think most of the coaches also felt that it wasn't right to stash a kid on the bench, especially when the talent wasn't deep anyway. The worst player and the 6th worst player were both probably going to botch anything hit to left field. The time my dad coached me he had a brilliant strategy for those horribad players: teach them to bunt. First of all, even decent LL teams screw up bunts defensively. This also gave those kids a legitimate chance to contribute in important situations. And more often than not, for the kids who really did want to do well, this was a big confidence booster. If they bunted a "triple" they were suddenly taking big hacks in their next plate appearance instead of running out of the box or whatever they would normally do. The trick obviously is to make sure you don't send these poor kids up there with the instruction to bunt every single time because you want to give them the chance to get better.

Yeah I think he just didn't want to use his last guy until absolutely necessary and he didn't want to send Robertson out there until Jennings got himself into trouble. Truth be told, Jennings pitched pretty damn well.

Well this continues a trend of the team not quite breaking out but still being really watchable. After the TB series, I was about ready to check out. They've made things interesting again, I hope we can beat this excellent KC team tomorrow and start beating up on somebody else afterwards.

In my hometown I was playing ball at the Boys & Girls Club (the main host for this sort of thing in that area) when they decided to quit keeping score in basketball. Had nothing to do with hurting kids' feelings. It was the parents losing their god damned minds about every little thing when the games were played to win.