hitlesswonder

About Milton and Ortiz, I agree that it's disturbing to hear that they may top the Sox list of pitchers to acquire. As far as I can see, Milton wins for worst fit for the Sox. His stats last year: ERA 4.75 WHIP 1.35 GO/AO 0.59 (ground out to flyout ratio) HR 43 I think he would just get lit up in USCF & the AL with those numbers. He had some OK years with MN, but he never had an ERA below 4.30. I know he's got great, left-handed stuff so someone will overpay. In fact he might be out of the Sox price range (if they're lucky). For Ortiz last season: ERA 4.13 WHIP 1.51 GO/AO 1.09 HR 23 Ortiz's stats were actually a little better than I thought they'd be. I think the high number of walks (his WHIP is worse than Garland's) would be a bad idea in USCF (too many 3 run HRs....), but he had pitched better than this in 2002 and 2003 (1.3 WHIP, still not great) so it's not as ridiculous an idea as Milton. I'd still prefer someone else (Clement if there's some chance he's healthy or maybe Lowe), especially if acquiring a SP means trading Lee to cut payroll.

That's cool. I honestly have no idea what major league front offices think (I am beginning to think that the Sox and I think differently, but that's probably a good thing for them). As you mention, I think Adkins numbers were kind of deceptive. He ended up with a 1.5 WHIP and a .305 BAA, and those seem high to me (particularly the batting average against). I seem to remember him letting a lot of inherited runners score, but I don't know the stats and could be wrong. He did look like he could get a strikeout, and he had a 2 to 1 K/BB ratio, so maybe he'll develop. But I'd much rather see him at the end of the bullpen than being a setup man.

I didn't realize that, I just saw his name & ERA on the relievers list and thought it might be a good pickup. I agree a reliever with one hip probably won't be a good investment...

I don't think Adkins was a decent 4/5 starter in AAA, so I don't think that's enough to get Johnson. They supposedly were interested in players the caliber of Jorge Posada plus more, so getting Johnson would involve giving up quality players and prospects. They especially need pitching, maybe catching, 2B, outfielder, and all for low salaries. I think the package would have to include Garland and probably McCarthy or Cotts along with Lee or Rowand. But that's a completely baseless guess

My prediction: SP: Buehrle Garcia Contreras Garland Grilli RP: Takatsu Politte Marte Cotts Adkins Scott Williamson (or maybe Paul Shuey or Bob Wickman) And before people rip into this for being too pessimistic, let me just say that by predicting the signing of Shuey or Williamson I'm actually suggesting they'll shell out money for a quality veteran arm. Last year they picked up Mike Jackson in that role, so I think this is optimsitic If the Sox really do sign Vizquel for 4 million a year, it seems more likely that changes to the pitching staff will come through trading Lee. They'll need to dump salary to stay under 70 million (which is around what the Trib and Gammons suggested the payroll would be, FWIW). But that's too hard to predict, so I'll stick with just a FA pickup.

I agree. Polanco is around 29 and hit around .300 with 17 HRs, a decent OBP, and plays good defense at 2B. He should be signable for not too much more than 4 million a year and could hit #2 just as well as Vizquel. I think he's much better bet to post decent numbers next season and the season thereafter.

I agree. Assuming that Vizquel is essentially replacing Harris, the Sox will be paying 4 million to improve the OBP in the 2nd spot by 0.010 (last year Harris was .343 and Viquel .353). The 3 previous years, Vizquel hit no better than Harris last year, and there's no way he's a sure thing at 38 to repeat last year's performance. Defensively, I don't think Vizquel-Uribe is much better than Uribe-Harris. Vizquel is better than Harris, but getting him doesn't improve the team nearly as much as putting money into a starter or reliever or catcher would. Plus, overpaying by a few million per year adds up. The Sox have already done it with Contreras. Doing it repeatedly will prevent making key improvements like a real major league pitcher at the 5th spot.

I think that looks likely too. I have an irrational fear the Sox will deal Lee for prospects to add Vizquel and Milton (and we'll see a bunch of Everett and Perez in the OF). I wish the Sox had gotten the Yankees to pick up more of Contreras's contract On the bright side, I haven't been really impressed with Foltman's coverage of the Sox. It's very possible he's just guessing. I hope.

I strongly agree. Polanco is at least a couple of years younger, and I think a better bet to stay healthy and post decent offensive numbers. I'm worried that the Sox are going to overpay for Vizquel, just to sign him quickly. Also, I think I should post on this board more often. I suggested Polanco instead of Vizquel elsewhere and the idea wasn't received well

I agree that buy low/sell high is good plan, and now would be a good time to trade Rowand if you think he won't come close to this year's numbers again. But I wouldn't do it. The Sox don't have much young, cheap talent and given their payroll restrictions they need to have some cheap and productive players to compete. Also, he may not become a great player, but he had a great season last year. He posted a .900 OPS playing centerfield. Other players to do that are named Beltran and Edmonds (and I think Burnitz, but still). Offensively he was the best CF in the AL last season, I think only Damon was close. If he can continue to play a good CF and only posts an .800 OPS, that's still great for the position. To trade him as part of a package for one year of a 41-year old pitcher who makes 16 million and has his knee lubricated (shot up) before each start doesn't seem like a good idea to me. RJ is great, maybe the best pitcher besides Santana in MLB last year. But even if he stays healthy next season, he doesn't make the Sox better than the Twins if you subtract Rowand and Garland (and replace them with Grilli and Timo).

Last season Lee hit .299 with an OPS of .876 with RISP. He didn't do as well with RISP and 2 outs or in close/late situations, but for those situations the sample sizes are tiny. I don't think he's anti-clutch, and I don't think that performance with RISP for a season should define a players worth (if it did, Timo Perez should start in RF of CF next seasson and that's not a good idea). Looking at the Sox offense for next season, Lee is about the only player I'm sure will produce good numbers. Thomas may be hurt, Rowand and Uribe have each had one really good year (I like them both, but they aren't sure things), Everett looked lousy this year, and Konerko's performance could fall off the face of earth like it did in 2003. Players that put up Lee's numbers at the major league level aren't that easy to find, and I'd like to keep him. Sure, if a really good trade comes up you have to do it but the Sox should get a lot for him. And if he's traded for pitching, they'll need to bring in a quality veteran bat to replace him.

I really don't know much about the minors (never even seen a Sox affiliate play), but I'm a little surprised that Hankins is on the list. I thought he had a decent year at the plate last season, and read he had a good arm. Plus he plays multiple positions, which you would think makes him a good bench candidate for a manager that loves having 3 catchers for some reason. Does this mean Hankins is gone for sure (I assume it does)?

If they do that, they better get a decent amount of money to pay off a portion of either Brown or Vazquez's contracts (both are big). In the Loaiza trade, the Yankees didn't pay nearly enough of Contreras's contract. IIRC NY shelled out something like 2 million a year for the next 2 years, with Sox taking 6 million a year. NY has money to burn, and I think Williams really should have held out for more.

If the Sox could trade for Miller and Jackson, I'd rather they just kept them. That's two excellent pitching prospects under their control for years (fewer in Jackon's case, but still). I know poeple want to win now (I do, too). But unless the Sox raise payroll considerably, they won't be able to do much else if they get RJ. And I think RJ alone (along with the subtraction of whatever talent they give up for him) will not put the Sox over the top next season. I don't think it even necessarily makes them better than the Twins. And either of Miller and Jackson could contribute at the major league level next year. Anyway, it likely doesn't matter since I don't think LA makes that trade.

I'll second that opinion. I don't think the article was unjustly critical of the Sox. I don't think Foulke really took any nasty shots at Sox. The organization gave up on him, and he said they made a mistake. I think that's pretty undeniable. I actually like the fact that he wanted to stay in Chicago. As for Williams, he just seems very defensive, and I think accusing Foulke of not caring about winning and being petty actually makes Williams and the Sox look petty. All he had to do was say they thought they made a good trade at the time and wish Foulke well.

I agree, people are acting like RJ would come virtually for free. There's no way the Arizona will take trash for him, and there will be a bidding war if he's on the block. I remember the same article about AZ wanting Rowand. And I'm sure it would be the same now. If AZ trades RJ, they'll be rebuilding. I don't see them wanting Lee or Konerko, who both have big contracts. Maybe not even Garland, if he's too close to free agency. I think they'd ask for a package along the lines of Rowand, Crede, and McCarthy/Anderson. Would people be willing to that?

I think Perez might be an interesting pick-up too, but didn't he have some questions about his shoulder at the end of the year? If he's healhty he'd make the Sox pitching look much more imposing. Even though he pitched in LA, his home and road ERAs were about the same (around 3.28). The question would just be how much he'd cost. He made 5 million this year and might be out of the Sox price range. I don't think they'll do it, but I liked the idea of going after Radke. He may have had something of a career year this year (I know his 3 year numbers aren't as good as this season), but he seems healthy, doesn't walk people, and it would be a big blow to the Twins. And they wouldn't even get the Sox first round draft choice next year (that's one bonus from the Sox playing lousy at the end of the season). But it would have to be for the right price. And after looking at his career numbers (thanks for posting them Rudy Law), it's not a sure thing that he'd perform up to the level he'll be paid at. Anyway I just hope the Sox bring in a decent starting pitcher (I hope not Russ Ortiz).

But payroll does exist, and because of the Sox payroll constraints (self-imposed or not) they need to be careful. I know Rex said Vizquel is healthy now, but he's not young and it's a gamble as to whether or not he'll stay healthy. The fact that he couldn't pass a physical at the beginning of last season is worrisome. Also, I'm sure he would be a great bench player, but 3 million a year for two years is way too much to pay for that in my opinion. I think there's a good chance that defensively and offesively Uribe will be better than Vizquel over the next 2 years. I know people will say that Vizquel brings leadership and clubhouse presence which Uribe lacks and maybe that's true, I have no way of knowing. If Vizquel were willing to lead off, signing him would be more appealing to me. But I just don't like the idea of paying a bunch of money to a player who, even though he's been very good, is 38 years old and plays the same position as a 25 year-old with a good glove who just posted an .800 OPS. The bottom line for me is that the Sox have bigger holes at SP and C than SS. I think it would be better to spend money on those spots. I will say that I think Rex knows a whole lot more about baseball than I do, so there's probably a good chance that I'm wrong

It's just my opinion, but I'd say Grilli wasn't really any better as a starter. They were both bad. Diaz was 2-4 with a 7.91 ERA, Grilli was 2-3 with a 7.40 ERA. Grilli was pitching late in September for the most part, after most races were wrapped up. Diaz got to pitch against some good teams early on, bounced up and down between Charlotte and the Sox, and had to ptich off schedule several times. Plus at AAA, DIaz clearly outperformed Grilli as a starter. I'm not saying Diaz is great or anything, but to me he seems to have more potential than Grilli. I agree they should keep Diaz in the bullpen next year. I wouldn't be surprised if he outpitched Adkins. But right now I think there's only one open spot in the bullpen (assuming Adkins and Cotts are back), and I think they'll fill that with either a veteran or Grilli if a starter is acquired.

I'm going to try and make this my last post about Endy Chavez I don't think he's much better than Willie Harris. Last year Harris had a BA/OBP/OPS of .262/.343/.665 with 21 SB and 7 CS. Chavez was .277/.318/.688 with 32 SB and 7 CS. The bottom line to me is that .318 is a bad OBP, and it seems to me few players improve their walk rate much at the major league level (I could be wrong though). For the Sox, I think getting on base is more important than being fast (alhtough it would be good to have both). I'd rather the Sox played someone they already have (Harris, Anderson, or Escobar) rather than give up talent for Chavez in a trade.

I think the Angels might have been willing to move Figgins before the Jose Guillen implosion. Next year, they'll be playing rookie of the year favorite Dallas McPherson (sp?) at 3rd, probably have signed a shortstop, and moved Eckstein to 2nd. If the outfield were full like this year, there would be no place to play Figgins. Still, he's young, cheap, and versatile so I think it would have taken a lot to get him. And now, with Guillen on the way out, I have to think Figgins will be starting in center. I don't think there's a chance the Sox can get him.

Well, Endy Chavez is not a great hitter. His BA/OBP/OPS last year was .277/.318/.688. He can steal bases, but that OBP is just not good. Really, he's pretty comparable to Willie Harris but with a somewhat better arm. If the Sox are going to move Rowand to right, I'd rather see them play Anderson or Escobar in center than give up something in trade for Chavez. Podsednik would be more interesting, but his BA and OBP were low last year as well (.240/.313 I think). And I imagine Milwaukee values him pretty highly (70 SB, fan favorite). Honestly, I would rather the Sox go for OBP than speed, if they have choose between the two, for a leadoff hitter.

I hate for my first post to be cynical, but I think it is a PR move like the "pusuit" of Alex Rodriguez. If Williams were interested in trading for a centerfielder, wouldn't he just contact teams he were interested in dealing with? It seems much more uncertain to hope they get a hint from reading the Chicago papers. I have no idea how such business gets done, so I could easily be wrong. Anyway, I agree with the other posters here that there has to be almost no chance that the Sox get Beltran. It's likely that the Yankees cleared Contreras's salary to get ready for bidding on Beltran. And I have to think the Astros will be willing to offer him big money since he helped them win their first playoff series. And of course the Tribue keeps mentioing how much the Cubs want him (maybe every MLB is saying they're going after Beltran). Actually, I think the best case secenario is that the Beltran talk is just talk and nothing else happens. Worst case is that Carlos Lee gets traded to dump salary to pursue Beltran (which means the Sox get back prospects), and then Beltran shockingly still fails to sign with the Sox which leaves an outfield of Everett, Rowand, and Perez for next year.