shakes

QUOTE (Lillian @ Nov 4, 2014 -> 09:04 AM) For those speculating about what it will take to sign V. Martinez, it might be interesting to note what some of the other great hitters are going to be getting paid in their late 30's, and beyond: Age 36 -39 Albert Pujols 25M, 26M, 27M, 28M, Plus 29M at 40, 30M at 41 Robinson Cano 24M each year, plus 24M at 40 Miguel Cabrera 30M, 30M, 30M, 32M, plus 32M at 40 with vesting options for 32M for two more years if top 10 MVP Given that Victor is the only really great left handed hitter in this year's free agent market, I would guess that it will take at least $20 million, per year for the first 3 years, with something close to that for the 4TH. I know that he is pretty much strictly a DH, but he is a switch hitter, and last year helps him make the case that he is aging well. Please don't assume that any of this suggests that I'm advocating signing him to that kind of contract. I'm simply speculating about what it might take. I think it will be closer to the Beltran contract last year, with maybe a 4th year vesting option. And I think that will be an overpay. It may go a bit higher because offense is continually getting scarcer, but it just doesn't fit into the Sox model. Those contracts are easier to eat for large market teams. Players can fall off a cliff at any moment in their late 30's. Think Konerko.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 23, 2014 -> 04:17 PM) I don't know, it mentions his range as the biggest factor and if you've ever seen Heyward in the outfield - through highlights, other video, or in person - that range is legitimately game changing. He has great instincts, runs good routes to balls, and has good speed. His arm isn't anything to scoff at either. I don't think that's really an overestimate, especially when the guy has been a plus-plus fielder for 3 years in a row. Heyward has really cut his strikeouts too, and he's only going to be 26 next season. I'd give up a small ransom if the Sox traded him. Bring in another outfielder with good range and then play Avisail sparingly out there and the outfield defense is improved an incredible amount. There is no arguing he is a great outfielder. It's more of an argument against fielding metrics used in WAR, and how much of an impact a RF can have defensively. If you are Boston or SF he has more value in that spot because of park factor. Here, I'd be more interested in a bigger bat if you are going to commit prospects and the financial commitment it would require. And I do think he would cost 1 or 2 of the Sox top prospects. I wouldn't even be against it given the potential that is left in his bat, but I may prefer Upton if it costs less, or just spreading the money and prospects around.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Oct 23, 2014 -> 04:04 PM) Heyward worth over 5 WAR. Almost all driven by defense. I personally do not think a corner outfielder can derive that much value from defense. With the bat he was essentially Adam Eaton. Given the value of what you would have to give up and pay in an extension, I don't see it being a possibility, nor do I think it would be worth it.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Oct 21, 2014 -> 07:11 AM) The Sox do not have a single player of importance, who is near the end of his prime. Unless they sign Martinez, or make some other significant acquisition, they will likely not be ready to compete in 2015. For the following reasons, perhaps 2016 should be the targeted year to make a run: 1) There are several important pieces that have yet to prove whether they can be counted upon to be significant contributors. I’d be willing to wait a year to find out what they have in Rodon, A. Garcia, Bassitt, Montas, Cleto and at least two of the following group: Semien, Sanchez, Saladino and Michah Johnson. I’d also still like a better look at Wilkins. I was disappointed that the front office couldn’t move Dunn any sooner, so that Wilkins could have had more than 43 at bats, which hardly is sufficient to determine anything. 2) They are drafting high again this June, and could conceivably acquire another piece, who could contribute in 2016 3) This years free agent crop does not look all that enticing. 4) Next years free agents (assuming they don’t get extended) include names like Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Alex Gordon, and Cespedes. Those names would be better fits than Victor Martinez, going forward, for a young team that wants to contend for a few years. Therefore, I would Trade Alexei, perhaps for a LH power hitting prospect, who is near ready. At 33, and with his contract, he could be a key to a couple of contenders in 2015. Which teams would have the greatest interest, and do any of them have a near ready LH power bat, who can play a position that fits the Sox (OF, DH, C, 3B)? Trading Alexei makes sense, if the Sox won’t be ready til ‘16. He would likely be slowing down enough by then, that his defense may no longer be elite. The organization has all of those middle infielders, at least a couple of whom should be ready to take over by '16, and who would benefit by one years experience, at the Major League level. Trading Alexei would help provide an opportunity to sort out the log jam in the infield. Saladino, Anderson and eventually Rondon could all become Major League Short Stops. If the Sox can build a solid offense, they may be able to settle for little, to no offensive production at SS, in order to put the best defense on the field. Rondon is the candidate for that scenario. There are several candidates for 2B including Sanchez, Semien, Johnson and Alvarez. If the Sox acquire V. Martinez, then Alexei could anchor the middle infield defense, for a Post Season run next season. However, if they decide to wait one more year, doesn't a trade of Ramirez make sense? The only issue with not participating in this years top free agents is the Sox can take advantage of a protected first round pick. If, they continue to improve, this may be the last time for a while. If there is a long term target that makes sense, now is the time to jump in.

QUOTE (The Mighty Mite @ Jun 13, 2014 -> 10:08 AM) Hey pal, I didn't start this thread so what's the problem with my throwing my 2 cents in. I can't believe how some of you can get so downright personal with other members instead of addressing the problem that the OP brought up. You get on your high horse about moving the team, when the team is still profitable. Just a bit of an overreaction? There have been a hundred reasons listed in this thread why the attendance is what it is. If you've followed this team or read the thread it's not surprising to anyone here who goes to games. There are legitimate financial and logistical concerns why the games are difficult to attend. The Sox don't have a huge out of town attraction like the Cubs, who Rickets himself has said around 40% of their attendance is from out of state visitors. That isn't going to happen so until season tickets rise, their will be lower attendance.

QUOTE (The Mighty Mite @ Jun 13, 2014 -> 08:35 AM) 20,000 to watch Sale go up against Scherzer. Piss poor. Something is seriously wrong up there, a big market team and we are averaging 19,000+ a game. 28th in MLB in attendance. We have a nice team with a great new star in Abreu and one of the best pitchers in MLB, the team does not give up and deserves some support. Right now if I owned the Sox and the stadium contract was up I would move this team to somewhere were it would be appreciated. Chicago does not deserve the White Sox. I want all of you to know that I'm a 68 year old die hard White Sox fan who has lived and died with this team since 1953, I still get up in the middle of the night and check the Sox score on my I Phone and for me the to say this is sacreligious. I know the Sox have addressed some of the pricing issues but Sox fans seem like they have just lost interest in the team. I have lived in Florida for over 20 years but I supported the team the 48 years I lived up there and would still do so, every year when the Sox come to Tampa you will see me at the Trop. I worked evenings when we lived up there but always tried to make one game every home stand. I also belong to another Sox Board and there were 3 threads about last nights game. That's sad coming from a membership of 8,000. If you are such a dedicated fan, and can't make games yourself, maybe you can buy tickets and give them away to increase sales? Nothing more annoying than people complaining about attendance who don't go to games. I get it, you don't live here, but what does this accomplish? The team has found ways to increase revenue and are doing a good job keeping payroll up through this down time. As mentioned, until the season ticket base goes up there will be low attendance.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 8, 2014 -> 08:34 AM) If I use an advanced stat, you say it's a bulls*** stat. If I use and "old school" stat, you ignore the argument and make fun of me for not using an advanced stat. lol Since when was career triple slash an "old school advanced stat" anyway? It seems we've reached the part of the argument where you start making s*** up and dodging the actual topic. How about this: show me that George Brett has been a better clutch hitter than a non-clutch hitter. You said it: That's the problem with postseason data, very few guys ever get enough PA to have predictive performances. The few that have had enough don't show significant difference from their career lines. It's true that Swisher has been brutal in the postseason, but if he gets there again, his track record doesn't make it more likely he'll continue to be brutal. Let's not forget that in the postseason hitters are usually facing better pitchers in these small sample sizes than through the course of a season, or career. To some extent it applies to high leverage situations, as well. There are a lot of factors that make 'clutch' hard to quantify.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ May 7, 2014 -> 02:24 PM) I can't remember where I saw it now, but there was a saber study that looked at super high ISOs like, players that had ISO above .280 and I believe the conclusion was that wRC+ underestimates the value of players with extreme power, such as Abreu. Frankly I don't care if his OBP is around 330 in his time with the Sox, yea it would be great if it was higher, but I will take 250/330/530 every single year he's with the Sox and not think twice. UZR likes his defense so far as well, that's a bonus. I think that is an important point regarding his ISO. I just looked it up and Abreu has a .350 ISO and only a .253 BAPIP. Rizzo has a .200 ISO and .306 BAPIP. That's 22-9 in extra base hits between the two of them. I think Abreu's average and BB% will both rise, which means the ISO is unlikely to remain that high. I honestly think the early power has made Abreu more aggressive than he normally would be. He has very good command of the strikezone, but you can tell when he's up with RISP he just decides he will swing at anything. All part of the adjustment process. Edit: And to add to ptatc point earlier, I think situational hitting doesn't get accounted for well enough in many advanced metrics. Some hitters have very different approaches with runners on and I would greatly prefer a guy like Abreu being a bit more aggressive in those situations. Continuing with Rizzo as an example, he has a great OBP, but with a lineup as bad as the Cubs, you need a guy like him to be more aggressive in some situations and try and get some runs on the board, when it is very likely the hitters behind him will struggle to do that. And pitchers know that.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 1, 2014 -> 06:04 PM) I don't think they ever have. They also never hired a farm director who is serving time for skimming bonuses. Did you just post something knowingly false? According to the guidelines of this site "You agree, through your use of this service, that you will not use this bulletin board to post any material which is knowingly false." Can I get an admin ruling on this?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 24, 2014 -> 11:58 AM) Mike Trout went down after that start. He started the next season in the minors. So what is the argument again? That he, like everyone else needs time to adjust. Simple. And that this is the perfect season to give him time to make these adjustments. The lack of patience for young players around here is astounding. Especially, when the patience is there for a player who has already proven that he is not a good player.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 24, 2014 -> 11:52 AM) Mike Trout was 19 years old. He also was a top 3 prospect in baseball. Has Semien even cracked a top 100? Who cares? The point is people are using his small amount of at bats to declare that he is terrible and should be sent down. He is going through a normal adjustment period for players jumping to the majors, that even Mike Trout went through. He is going to go through this now or later. Now is the perfect time. And even with this adjustment he is already as good as Beckham's career.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Apr 24, 2014 -> 11:33 AM) All of those guys have demonstrated better mastery of AAA than Semien. If Semien had shown that he had nothing left to learn at lower levels, then I agree: ship off Beckham for a bag of balls and let Semien develop up here. That's not the case. He played 32 games at AAA. And you might want to check your numbers on all those guys. He is developing at the highest level and holding his won. There is no better experience than that. The top player line is Mike Trout's line in his first stint in the majors. The bottom is Semien. I'm in NO way saying Semien will be half the player, but as you can see everyone goes through an adjustment period. Even the poster boy for superstars jumping to the majors. G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB 40 135 123 20 27 6 0 5 16 4 0 9 30 .220 .281 .390 .672 89 48 2 2 0 1 0 897/D 42 171 163 20 40 8 1 5 20 4 2 7 50 .245 .275 .399 .674 81 65 4 0 0 1 0

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Apr 24, 2014 -> 11:02 AM) I did not say that. I said Semien has done nothing to stick. He has been flat-out terrible so far with the exception of a few well-timed HRs. If those HRs happened in different situations, Semien Fever would be a low simmer. He's got plenty of potential but he still has a LOT to learn and can do so at AAA. If Semien has been flat out terribe, than Beckham's career is flat out terrible. Sending Semien down so Beckham can play defeats the whole purpose of this season. Semien should be given time to adjust, like any young player should. I can't figure out the argument that Beckham and his 2500 plate appearances needs more time to show what he can do, but Semien has sucked in a SSS and should be sent down, even thought their numbers are the same and Semien does everything else better. The Sox have been using this season so guys like Semien, Viciedo, Garcia, Gillespie, Webb, Johnson, Eaton can gain some experience and they can gage what they have for the future. Struggles with young players are going to happen. They need time to work through them and see if they can grow. Semien has a lot more to gain playing at the MLB level than he does in AAA.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 24, 2014 -> 10:15 AM) His numbers in AA this year mean nothing. He was rehabbing. It's like spring training numbers. How has that translated for Jordan Danks? Besides, Beckham has better career numbers than Semien. So if Beckham doesn't "deserve" it, why would Semien? Have Semien start taking some fungos in the OF. It's not a big deal having an infielder play some OF. Having an OF move to the infield is a bit more complicated. Many forget, Alexei Ramirez debuted as a CF for the White Sox. Gillaspie said he probably will miss a few more days. I wouldn't be surprised if he winds up DL'd. So, Beckham gets to struggle in the minors and it's meaningless, but Semien and his 94 at bats should be viewed as a final product? Great argument. Nevermind, that Semien and his poor start are right on line with Gordon's career numbers. Semien already shows a better understanding of the strike zone, he projects as a better base runner, defender, and is more versatile. And you know young players can get better. Imagine that. We don't know what Semien's ceiling is, but we already know Beckham pretty much sucks. The only thing I'm interested in seeing is how Gordon responds to competition and actually having to earn his job.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 09:43 AM) Scott Boras as his agent and/or advisor simply cannot be overstated, and it is absolutely a concern. Unlike college seniors, Rodon has leverage still as a junior, and if he's requesting #1 overall money no matter what and he won't sign otherwise, and the Sox feel he'll need a year or two in the minors (so they can't do the fast track thing), then it becomes incredibly tricky to figure that out. If you can get the best talent in the draft at 3 you have to make it work. Hahn is a creative guy and I trust the Sox pitching development if they needed to fast track a pitcher. He could take the same route Sale did.

QUOTE (Jake @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 11:28 PM) Rodon is such a vastly better prospect in almost every regard. If he can be had, I'll have him. Agreed. I think the concerns about Rodon all year have been really overstated. It's nice to see Hoffman really putting it together. He has to be the #2 target behind Rodon. His upside is just so huge that it would be hard to take the risk on a HS arm over him.

QUOTE (ron883 @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 08:49 AM) Rodon seems to be pretty developed. I wonder if him and Boras will agree to sign for slot money if the sox promise a fast route to the majors ala chris sale. I would hope Hahn can get creative if Rodon makes it to 3. I would do backflips if the Sox can draft Rodon. I still find it hard to believe he will make it to #3. He is the best talent in the draft.

QUOTE (Jake @ Apr 10, 2014 -> 02:57 PM) What sucks the most here is that we don't even know if he's any good. Next year we'll be wanting to put out a playoff-ready team but we'll have to start a 23 year old, iffy-fielding RF that swings at everything and has less than 500 ABs of track record. This was the perfect year to let him fail, but it will be a lot more difficult from here on out. Although I think this is a dark cloud assessment. It is dead on. He really needed this year to grow into his position and and get consistent instruction. If you look at his track record as a professional he has not spent very long in one place and advanced rapidly. That is not an ideal way to learn the game as a professional and work on growing as a player. This should have been a very important developmental year for him. No other way to put it. This sucks.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Apr 4, 2014 -> 04:07 PM) That is instinct and Garcia does not have it. You can not teach a player to be a better outfielder. His speed will make up for some short comings. The ball in the first he should have gotten to. It would have been a good play but he still should have gotten there. The fact this organization thought he could be a center-fielder is a head scratcher though. Outfielders absolutely can improve. And he was not getting to that ball in the first from where he was positioned.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Apr 4, 2014 -> 03:39 PM) Lol. A shot in the gap to the wall? Nobody catches that. Quickly jumping on Garcia's defense is now the cool thing. Did anyone see where he was positioned on that play? It wasn't a bad jump, he was playing way too shallow to catch that ball. Yell at the bench coach for that one.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 19, 2014 -> 04:54 PM) That's insane that Law considers Gatewood a top 5er but McDaniel has him in the sixth TIER. Law just locks into a love/hate relationship with too many guys. It's the biggest problem I have with him as an evaluator. He is just too stubborn.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Feb 19, 2014 -> 07:13 PM) Yes I agree. He's not going to throw anything by any good hitters though right? Dude needs to refine devastating corner control...until he just feasts on AAA. I hope he forces his way up sometime this year instead of breaking camp with the team because he was the best of a pile of s***. His stuff is probably good enough. His command is not. That can always be improved and usually the best way is to get innings. Give him one more crack at starting this season otherwise he is probably a bullpen arm.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Feb 19, 2014 -> 03:56 PM) As others have stated, Rienzo should be pitching opening day for Charlotte barring an injury to another member of the rotation. There's no argument to put him in the bullpen as we already have 6 guys that throw right handed and are better suited for the pen. Yep. He needs to tighten up his command. If he does he can be a legitimate option for the rotation. I would also like to see him working on an out pitch to lefties.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Feb 19, 2014 -> 03:56 PM) As others have stated, Rienzo should be pitching opening day for Charlotte barring an injury to another member of the rotation. There's no argument to put him in the bullpen as we already have 6 guys that throw right handed and are better suited for the pen. Yep. He needs to tighten up his command. If he does he can be a legitimate option for the rotation. I would also like to see him working on an out pitch to lefties.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Feb 19, 2014 -> 03:18 PM) I think he can be a starter, but he REALLY needs to work on his command. I would love to see him in AAA learning how to keep the breaking ball down. I think he could definitely benefit from more seasoning in AAA. I think it would be more worthwhile getting him starts there than as the swing man.