shakes

QUOTE (Special K @ Dec 15, 2016 -> 09:08 AM) So we can expect another package centered around pitching prospects? I understand the philosophy of stocking up on arms, but at some point we're going to need to go for bats. We can draft bats, but drafting 1 or 2 is not going to improve our depth much (especially when there's a good chance one of those picks busts). Almost seems to be the exact opposite of the Cubs farm philosophy at this point. They stockpiled on positional prospects and then signed pitching (or traded for it). I understand the want for bats, but roster construction isn't the point of this exercise, right now it's about gathering assets. What the Cubs did was impressive but they really only went heavy on bats in the draft. Trades and free agent acquisitions were pretty balanced. They had a clear draft strategy and executed it, that's the part to replicate. Look at free agency right now....there were plenty of hitters available this year, and some fairly reasonable contracts to be had. The pitching market was vomit inducing. If you needed two starting pitchers or two starting hitters to complete a team, which would you prefer going into the offseason? When the Sox get closer to competing you then worry about a balanced roster and filling out holes. For now, just get as many good assets as you can and focus on developing them.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Dec 8, 2016 -> 07:42 AM) One guy I got my eye on is Garrett Stubbs with the Astros. I'd like him as a 3rd or 4th piece in a Q deal, or maybe the 2nd or 3rd piece in a deal for one of the relievers( believe I remember they needed relievers). Hit over .300 with an OBP in the .390s. He was defensive player of the year at USC as a senior a few years ago, so you would assume his defense is good. No clue on his pitch framing. Baseball reference does have him also listed as a DH which might tell you something about his framing..or that his defensive player of the year award was a sham. This year they may as well give Narvaez and Smith a shot. I keep seeing Stubbs come up as a target. I saw him in the AFL this year, so I thought I would pass this along. I think his lack of attention as a prospect becomes obvious once you see him. He's lucky if he is 5'9" 160 lbs. I'm not kidding, he looked like the bat boy warming up the pitcher when he first came out. His arm strength was average at best and he clearly had an advanced approach at the plate, but there is little power projection in his swing. He would get by on average, because his OBP will not likely translate as well at the MLB level with the approach I saw. He has a lot to overcome to be a backup on an MLB roster. I would shoot for someone with better upside. That being said, he handled pitchers well and was really quick behind the plate. Collins seemed to be constantly talking to him, so he looked like a good mentor.

QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Dec 7, 2016 -> 01:22 PM) Add Jones and get everyone Between the two of them they are averaging 9 total war the last three years, and have 9 years of control, through both their primes, at a toal of $65 million. Not to mention there are options on the end, so you aren't even fully committed if there is a bad injury to one or the other. I can't see how you could possible get fair value from one organization for that.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Dec 7, 2016 -> 01:15 PM) I want this trade just not sure you could get Robles. You CANNOT trade both of those guys to Washington and not get Turner. For those two guys I would want Turner, Robles, Giolito/Lopez +. The Nats won't do that, so I don't see how it makes sense to package those guys together.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Dec 7, 2016 -> 11:11 AM) And maybe you build a new Cuban connection with him, Moncada and possibly Abreu as an elder statesman. Also, keeping in theme with Cuban Missile, Cuban Tank and Cuban Comet, we really need some for Abreu and Moncada. If half of the Puig rumors are true, I don't want him anywhere near Moncada, let alone being mentored by him.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Dec 7, 2016 -> 08:24 AM) Like Steve said, I expect something done today as well. I'm honestly liking the Nats package better than what the Astros can offer. If Passan is right and Q is getting 95% of what Sale was getting, add on Robertson, Nats could be the landing spot and higher ceiling guys. Q and Robertson for Giolito, Robles, Severino, and one of Fedde/Lopez/Kieboom. I'm a little fearful Passan's comments will leave us all a little disappointed. That sounds more like a White Sox negotiating leak. I'm sure the package will be good, albeit different. I just don't see him approaching Sales value on the market. The fact that some teams are jumping back in kind of confirms that.

QUOTE (maxjusttyped @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 07:59 PM) I'm surprised we aren't hearing more about Nate Jones. Literally any team that is trying to contend this year could use him. I think he makes more sense at the deadline. Setup men will be all the rage with contending teams this year, thinking they can replicate the Indians/Royals model the last couple of years.

QUOTE (mataipaepae @ Dec 6, 2016 -> 10:38 AM) Yeah but Basabe comes in very similar to Robles. And you add Moncada who probably ends up at 3rd. And Kooech with a big arm. Based on what? Numbers and scouting disagree. Everything about Robles is ahead of Basabe.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Dec 5, 2016 -> 09:26 PM) Severino really isn't a good prospect. Better than what we have, sure, but not exciting Would rather not he be one of the pieces. I'd prefer to take a piece with some upside and find a catcher elsewhere.

QUOTE (fathom @ Dec 5, 2016 -> 09:06 PM) Just not a fan of Giolito. Oh well, clear the big name guys are unavailable I'm not sure how Giolito is not a big name. He was ranked higher as a prospect than all of the guys people are saying are a must in a deal. And Robles is another good year away from being a top five prospect. It seems like this is exactly the type of package people have been asking for all along.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 5, 2016 -> 02:41 PM) Sox will keep Sale unless one team ups the offer. When you have multiple teams bidding the price goes up because the Sox know they do not have to settle I actually would keep him unless we get a premium package in return And the Sox have other trade chips that will crossover in discussions. I mean, there could be teams who would move on to Q, Eaton, or even Rodon. The Sox have a ton of due diligence to do if they are exploring a complete rebuild. I would be very curious to know what Q's market looks like. Have barely heard a word about it.

QUOTE (bmags @ Dec 5, 2016 -> 02:32 PM) I follow Sherman and I don't really recall him ever saying that. Yesterday he said sox don't perceive Boston/LA as major players for sale but Washington was trying but holding back on Turner. Nothing recent has been communicated from him re: Sale. That particular poster will never pass up an opportunity for a doom and gloom view. It's not hard to link to a tweet.

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Dec 5, 2016 -> 01:55 PM) I disagree. I would take Turner/Robles/Giolito/Lopez plus 3-4 more of their top 10 prospects (Fedde, Kieboom, Dunning, Neuse, Stevenson) for both Sale & Eaton. It's just really hard to value those two together in a single trade not knowing what Eaton brings alone. And that is too many top and total prospects for any one organization to give up.

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Dec 5, 2016 -> 01:00 PM) Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeyman 2m2 minutes ago Nats are said to stepping for Sale. Meeting this aft. Red Sox are involved, and others, too. Things are heating up! I'm guessing the public negotiating is about to pickup. I have a meeting today until 5pm CST. Can we all agree to keep the internet quiet until then?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 5, 2016 -> 08:15 AM) Sure, but the more Someome looks at it, the more they could come to the conclusion Robles ranking as a prospect may be a bit high. You have to do some research on him, he is lauded for his strike zone knowledge and two strike approach, at such a young age. He has a 70 grade arm and speed, and he applies them with instincts in CF. This is a guy if you don't get on the way up, in a year or two will be the type of player that the Nats will say is off limits. Giolito was universally a top five prospect last year, and by many accounts the top pitching prospect. These two guys headlining a package for Sale is exactly what the Sox should be looking for.

QUOTE (BigSqwert @ Nov 18, 2016 -> 02:38 PM) Well then this should've between post #2 in this thread. Post #2 happened on Nov. 13th. That wouldn't have made any sense.

QUOTE (Jenksy Cat @ Sep 26, 2016 -> 12:15 PM) Kept up my usual trajectory. April - super hyped, live and die with every game May - still hyped (this is new territory in the last 4 years) June - paying attention, but starting to see who they really are July - paying less attention August - occasionally look up highlights, keep up with key players Sept - Don't care at all, despise the franchise and promise I'll stop supporting them April 2017 - spend $400 on opening day tickets, rinse repeat. Pretty close to my trajectory except I haven't gone to a game in two years now, so I stopped the money spending part. Been putting the time in on the golf course instead and am down to a single digit handicap....so thank you for that White Sox. If you anymore resembled a competent franchise I would probably still be about a 13.

QUOTE (Hatchetman @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 04:39 PM) I'm just hoping JR had a revelation in the night and is going to fire KW & crew and let the new person handle the rebuild. That's the only hope, but I think the only change that will happen is if Hahn or Kenny actually step down. There are just too many inflated egos there and they are not working well together. But it is truly systemic. Small changes are happening in draft strategy and the international prospect pool, but nothing is really changing much on the player development side, and the pro level scouting still seems horrific. I'm still torn on whether Hahn is really at the wheel, because I think some of these changes he's behind but they are just trickling in and the impact is too slow while trying to constantly field a competitive team. It's just a totally disjointed approach that has the feel of too many cooks in the kitchen. It would be ideal to get a new FO in and then make the strategic decisions, but to me that seems about as likely as believing in the Sox bandaid approach working next year. JR's long history really shows the management level shakeup needs to be forced upon him.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 02:58 PM) They talked to every team about their players. The only deal they thought would make them better in the future was the Duke trade. Are they supposed to just trade guys because message board posters say so? 2015 was a disaster. They changed the roster significantly, which was changed significantly from the 2014 roster. Avi Garcia is the longest tenured postion player. The only others with a longer tenure are Sale and Quintana. Whichever direction they ultimately choose, and I think it is totally dependent on someone meeting their price on Q and Sale, the 2017 White Sox will have a significantly different looking roster from what it is now. If that's the case then they suck at negotiating. As I stated earlier, many teams around baseball made good deals selling at the deadline. They are also bad at making hard decisions. Not selling last deadline put them at a disadvantage this offseason, just like not selling at this years deadline will hurt in the future years building this team.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 12:45 PM) You are right. Proof positive. Could you imagine what Atlanta could have received for Shelby Miller if they would have just traded him last deadline as opposed to the winter? These guys are so stupid, they should listen to message boards. Who cares what the offers are, if they are going to give you pennies on the dollar, take the pennies because message board posters love prospects until they suck for a week, then they are despicable. Just remember listening to fans regarding personnel will lead you to bad things. Someone bumped a Bonafacio thread from last year a couple of months ago, and there was a post by someone that no one should complain about Hahn as he did what Soxtalk wanted him to do. Well, that didn't work out, and not only did it become not what Soxtalk. it wasn't even Hahn. It was all Kenny Williams. Basically, most of the people complaining wanted a trade just to make a trade. What good does it do to trade Melky or Robertson for another Avi Garcia (who many were extremely high on btw) . See what's out there this winter. I think either they trade a couple of these guys away, or JR is going to jack up the payroll. I think the half assed approach is over. At least I hope so. While you are busy telling fans how wrong they are, you can sit here with a straight face and tell me you believe the last sentence you wrote?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 10:06 AM) They're certainly not enough, you're right. But it's halfway, I think, which is close enough to want to go into the winter with your options open. I mean, if I found out that there were good offers on the table for all the guys they might have moved yesterday, I wouldn't be taking this position. And maybe that "chain of command problem" tweet is evidence that's the case. But if we can assume that Hahn didn't get great offers, I think it's easy to see why he didn't pull any triggers. That's really all I'm trying to say. That we have no significant pending free agents makes it a different situation than usual. But part of being a good GM is creating a market and getting the offers you like. It's another argument I just don't find defensible anymore, not saying by you, just in general. Look at the Yankees. Cashman had the two best bullpen arms and got teams to pay huge prices for them, hence dictating the market. He got a good price for a 39 year old outfielder. The Sox on the other hand were shopping the two best starters, one of the better lefty relievers with a good contract, a closer, could also have shopped Nate Jones, a productive outfielder on a good contract, two secondary starters which were going for valuable assets, and wound up with the Cardinals #12 prospect who is viewed by most as a 4th outfielder. That's on the GM for not getting to the offers they thought were good offers. The Yankees, Brewers, A's, Rays and Pirates all found deals for their assets. Why is it that whenever the Sox have something to sell there just doesn't seem to be a market for their players, even thought the market exists for other teams with similar assets? The conclusion I'm being forced to accept is an inadequate front office. Let's face it they blew this deadline spectacularly. Just like the blew the deadline last year by delusionally believing they were contenders , and I have no faith in them cleaning it up this winter.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 09:27 AM) You said "nuh-uh" to a lot of what I posted, but you haven't provided any evidence to the contrary. For example, I'm not sure how you look at Frazier's stat line and come to the conclusion that he isn't far off from his norms. It just isn't true -- K rate is up, BABIP is way down, defense is way down, etc. The differences, purely in terms of WAR, between recent Abreu and Frazier seasons and what they're likely to finish with this year amount to something like 6 wins. If you projected Rodon to come it at three wins this year (safe), you're talking about a 9 win swing. That would absolutely put the Sox in contention. You're welcome to hold your opinion, but you haven't shown anything to support it. I understand the sense of dread (I feel it too), and you may be right that the organization is incompetent in terms of player development, but neither of those two things support the idea that their deadline strategy is indefensible. I'm not trying to defend the org, I'm just trying to explain the actions. Well, Abreu's trend unfortunately is very far from his 5.3 war his rookie year, which was nearly cut in half last year and it's hard to guarantee a bounce back, he hasn't shown the ability to adjust to the adjustments the league is making to him. http://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2016/6/6/11863...e-sox-struggles As far as Frazier goes, his WAR is being dragged down by his defense which fluctuates year to year, and generally doesn't get better as you age. His offensive numbers are down, while his OPS+, wOBA, WRC+, are all lower than career averages, but they are not career worst and are not far below his career averages. His BB% and ISO are actually career highs, as is his K%. It is a career low for BABIP, which gives you some hope, but the rest of the numbers don't tell me he's just automatically jumping back to a 4.5+ WAR player. It looks to me like another guy the Sox acquired who is having a more difficult than normal time switching leagues. For Rodon, I hope he continues to grow as a pitcher, but for now he needs to continue his growth and actually reach a 3+ WAR season before I just count it as automatic. I just really don't believe any of those changes should be the plan to get back into contention.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Aug 2, 2016 -> 08:19 AM) I'm bored too -- I get it, I really do. But if you take a step back and look at the situation and the options, the roster is built to push through 2017. I have no doubt that Hahn considered changing that course after his "mired in mediocrity" statement, but I have to assume that teams were not willing to pay up. Rather than make a bad deal simply for the sake of changing something, there's an argument to be made to let things play out. I'm sure he could have moved some relievers and role players, but if the returns aren't meaningful, there's value in retaining the flexibility of competing in 2017 into this offseason, where I have no doubt that he'll try to see what he can get out of Sale/Quintana again. For those asking "what can possibly be done to improve the team's chances in 2017," it starts with Abreu being Abreu, Frazier being Frazier, and Rodon finally turning into Rodon. Those guys have been bad, but there doesn't appear to be any physical reason, and the reality is just that sometimes guys have bad years. Remember when David Ortiz was cooked? Remember when Carlos Beltran was useless? Remember when it was ridiculous to acquire John Lackey? There are a ton of examples of teams giving up on good players only to see them flourish later, often elsewhere. We're all real good at coming up with convenient ad hoc explanations like "toxic clubhouse" or "new training program" or "obvious contract year effort" and other unsubstantiated, random crap, but when we do that, we're ignoring the fact that baseball is a competition where two really good players are doing everything they can to stop the other from succeeding, and no matter how much talent there is, one of them ALWAYS has to lose. Team sports aren't just coming in and pushing buttons -- sometimes you simply get beat. If any those players simply did what was reasonably expected, we'd probably be a couple games over .500. If ALL of them simply did what they were reasonably expected, we'd be in the thick of the playoff hunt. Is the consistent disappointment of the team a systemic problem of the organization? Maybe. But if you're Rick Hahn, you're not going to fire yourself. You're going to do what ALL of us do every day: you're going to assume you're capable of doing your job, and make the best decision you can given the hand in front of you. It's totally fair to be disappointed and upset -- I am too. But the decision to hold onto controllable assets into this offseason is absolutely a defensible decision, even if it's boring and feels bad. It very well may turn out to be the wrong one (assuming the offers on the table were what we think), and you certainly DON'T have to like it or agree with it, but it's a far cry from obvious incompetence. In case anyone doesn't know about it, this is an awesome resource for when you want to start taking stock of the offseason: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1GZ9...pub?output=html Note the contracts that come off the books after next season: Melky, Frazier, Lawrie, Gonzalez. If we fail next year, all those guys will be hot deadline chips. Shields and Robertson will each have ~1.5yr/~$15m remaining, and will also be good chips if they're pitching well. Jones and Jennings will still have multiple years of control remaining. Sale and Quintana will be essentially JUST as valuable, but the team will be in a clearer position to sell. And that's IF we fail. Those aforementioned bouncebacks could get us most of the way to contention, and I'm assuming Avisail Garcia will FINALLY be non-tendered, so we may just have a shot. The offseason shopping list is clear and achievable: catcher, first base/DH, corner OF. I'm sorry, but this is living in absolute fantasyland. This is the same rationalizing we see every year that has lead to the White Sox being 62 games under .500 the last three seasons, with another season headed down that same path. And frankly, the positive regressions you highlight do not nearly make up the difference for the Sox making the playoffs. And that is ignoring the fact that this is likely the player Frazier is, he isn't doing anything that is really outside his career norms, and Sale, Q, Eaton, Melky, Jones are all healthy and have years towards the high end of their career production, and it is very unlikely we see the recent contributions Gonzalez and Sheilds are giving the Sox. As far as Rodon goes, well the book is absolutely out on him, but the rushed promotions do not seem to be helping him and so far Fulmer is looking like he needs more development to even contribute as a reliable bullpen arm. Which brings up another argument against contention, the Sox just traded their second most reliable bullpen arm for what is widely considered a 4th outfielder who will be thrust immediately into a starting role. All of this is complicated by the fact that every team has injuries and regressions and the Sox have a farm system that produces no depth and ready made replacements which is a big reason the team fades down the stretch every year, and is falling into that patter yet again. Believing the Sox will enter the big boy market and sell assets, who are worth less this time next year, and spend wildly back into contention because the money will be off the books is just ignoring everything about their history and how they operate. Their is no defensible position for contention next year. The Sox are closer to the Reds than they are the Red Sox as an organization. Their really is nothing they do well at this point top to bottom. I can't think of a single thing. They have developed two star pitchers in the last six years and appear content to just throw away their primes. This is a real nadir as a Sox fan.

QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 1, 2016 -> 03:29 PM) When the GM says "this team is mired in mediocrity" and then doesn't do anything to fix it, then we have to assume that is acceptable to the White Sox. Bingo. That directly is out of our GM's mouth. Their response in a market where teams are overpaying for relievers, aging outfielders, and mediocre to bad starters, is to trade one of their relievers for an underwhelming return, sending the message to the existing team you aren't good enough, but we will weaken you slightly more from the mediocre tag we just gave you. It's spineless, directionless, and just straight incompetent. Take a look at what teams like the Yankees and Brewers did. Organizations are just running circles around our front office. This is the lowest I have felt about the Sox future in all the time I have been a fan.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Jun 10, 2016 -> 11:22 AM) Tyler Saladino .1 WAR Jimmy Rollins .1 WAR Alexei Ramirez -.4 WAR Marcus Semien 1.4 WAR