RockRaines

Every year, I swear I'm going to ignore the Gold Gloves because every year brings yet another completely ridiculous choice. Oh well, maybe in 2006. Until then, I thought I'd answer some e-mail. John Kreiser: Loathe as I am to compliment a Yankee, check out Baseball Prospectus' comments on the AL shortstop Gold Glove. They don't agree with your denigration of Derek Jeter's play in 2005. Much to my surprise, Jeter wasn't a ridiculous choice this year. Maybe someone worked on positioning with him -- I don't recall as many dives (and misses). According to the comments, he was a decent choice -- not great, but not embarrassing, either. As a Giant fan, I was delighted to see two of our guys win Gold Gloves, though I wouldn't have given one to either Mike Matheny or Omar Vizquel. Neyer: I've received a few e-mail messages referencing Baseball Prospectus and Derek Jeter, so I did some digging. And if there's a sabermetric consensus regarding Jeter's defense, it most certainly is not that he's an outstanding fielder. BP's Clay Davenport recently described Jeter as "solidly above average," and the closest Davenport came to endorsing Jeter was when he wrote that he'd choose Jeter over Orlando Cabrera (who didn't have a particularly good season). A Gold Glover isn't supposed to be "solidly above average," and anyway, that's just one method (the difference in fielding runs between the starter and his replacement). There are others. I've collected FRAR, win shares (which measures each player's contribution to his team's wins), and ultimate zone ratings (credits fielders for outs made) for every major leaguer who played at least 1,000 innings at shortstop in 2005. Below are where some of the top Gold Glove candidates ranked in each category: WS UZR FRAR Juan Uribe 1 2 2 Jhonny Peralta 2 5 1 Orlando Cabrera 3 3 3 Miguel Tejada 5 1 6 Derek Jeter 4 9 4 Juan Uribe is the obvious winner here. Considering that the White Sox were the biggest story in the American League, and that the key to their success was run prevention, you'd think the Gold Glove voters would have considered the possibility that maybe, just maybe, the fielders had something to do with all those low ERAs. Nope. No love for Juan Uribe, or Aaron Rowand, or Joe Crede, not even for Mark Buehrle. Maybe next year. Meanwhile, here are the National Leaguers: WS UZR FRAR Rafael Furcal 1 4 2 Neifi Perez 2 2 1 Jack Wilson 3 6 3 Adam Everett 7 1 6 Omar Vizquel 6 5 5 Another big whiff for the voters, at least if you believe that fielding stats, interpreted with some degree of sophistication, really do make sense. Rafael Furcal would have been a fine choice, as would Neifi Perez or Jack Wilson. Vizquel was 38 this season, and his Gold Glove is just one more piece of evidence that the voters are either (at best) lazy or (at worst) willfully ignorant. Tom Kennedy: Rob, back in the day, when people could read your stuff for free, I believe you commented about Jeter winning his first Gold Glove with something like "Enjoy this while you can, because he'll never win another." Now he's won another. Considering this award is voted on by managers and coaches, and not the dreaded "New York media," I imagine this comes as a bit of a shock to you. What would you attribute this to? I doubt his range has improved; if anything, as one hits his 30s, I would tend to believe his physical skills have reached their peak. Neyer: To what would I attribute this to? One, he might actually be making more plays lately. No, I don't think he has more range, in an athletic sense, than he had five years ago. But there's a lot of talk about the Yankees doing some odd things regarding the positioning of their middle infielders, and it's possible they've made changes that caused Jeter to make more plays. But getting back to the original issue, I really think he's won two Gold Gloves because the managers and coaches can't be bothered to figure out who the best fielders really are. In 2004, Jeter's defensive stats actually were pretty good. Not Gold Glove good, but good. And there's no reason we should have been so surprised. Fielders have good years, just as hitters do. In 2000, catcher Charles Johnson -- who played for the Orioles and the White Sox that season -- batted .304 and hit 31 home runs in only 128 games. Was he really that good? Or was he just a decent hitter having a great season? In 1970, A's shortstop Bert Campaneris hit 22 home runs. He hit two home runs in 1969, and five home runs in 1971. These things happen, to hitters and -- yes -- to fielders. In 2004, Derek Jeter didn't prove that he was a good fielder. He proved that occasionally a poor fielder will be a good fielder, statistically, for a season. Simple as that. Rany: Rob, I'm absolutely in shock that Bobby Abreu won a Gold Glove; this might be the most surprising selection in the recent history of the award. (And yes, I'm counting Rafael Palmeiro's GG the year he played 28 games at 1B.) I mean, I'm Abreu's biggest fan, and I can't fathom how he won the award. It's not just that he was -6 FRAR this year, or -34 for his career; it's that I haven't heard anyone in the game compliment his defensive skills. On the contrary, the general perception is that he's a loafer in the field. How he won the award is beyond me ... but so far, I haven't heard anyone comment on his selection. I see this as an easy column topic for you. Neyer: A whole column? I don't think so. No single Gold Glove mischoice is worth a whole column anymore. It says something, though, that nobody's really talking about Abreu's Gold Glove. Just goes to show all of us how far the MSM still has to go when it comes to fielding metrics. OPS is no longer particularly esoteric, and I've actually seen VORP and win shares referenced in publications you might purchase from your neighborhood news vendor. But fielding stats? The most commonly referenced fielding statistic is still fielding percentage, which has been around since the Civil War. The second most commonly referenced fielding statistic is range factor, which has been around (by that name) for roughly 30 years. And the third most commonly referenced fielding statistic is ... actually, there aren't any others, outside of the freaks and geeks (i.e. me and my friends) who know what FRAR stands for. In the next few months, John Dewan's "The Fielding Bible" will add another voice to the discussion, and in "The Hardball Times Baseball Annual," David Gassko will introduce a new fielding metric he's simply calling "range." But it's a discussion that will continue to be followed almost exclusively by me and my friends. It's a slog, this fielding stuff. And I'm fairly certain that the Devil Rays will win a World Series before the Gold Glove voters pay attention to anything but what they're hearing from each other and what they're seeing on ESPN. H. Alan Polk: So was a 40-year-old Greg Maddux really the best fielding pitcher? That just seems less than likely. It is so unfortunate to me that an award that should be very important seems to be cared about very little by the people that vote for it. Neyer: Actually, I've argued for years that Maddux shouldn't win Gold Gloves, ever. Why? Because he doesn't pay attention to prospective base-stealers. Never has. In 2005, larcenous runners were safe 32 times, out eight times. Runners were safe 80 percent of the time against Maddux. That's actually not a terrible percentage for Maddux -- the league average is roughly 70 percent -- and he's certainly done worse in other seasons. But it seems to me that among all the pitchers in the National League, there must be somebody who's adept at fielding ground balls and holding runners on first base. Joshua: Big Astros fan here who never gets to see games because I'm in the Navy in a place where sports other than baseball are big. If my very basic math is correct, Roger Clemens and Jeff Bagwell occupy a large portion of our payroll every season (Clemens, by my count, is close to 25 percent alone). If they both happen to retire, would we expect a permanent shift to first for Lance Berkman and the 'Stros fiercely pursuing someone like Adam Dunn, another hometown dude? Or does the possibility exist for them to go after a pitcher like Kevin Millwood and a mid-level outfielder? Free agency looks to be light on big swingers, and offense is definitely what the Astros could use. Neyer: This is something I should have discussed in my last column, Joshua. Because yes, you're right: Any discussion of the Astros' 2006 roster is incomplete without mentioning the massive contract obligations the Astros might have next year. Clemens earned $18 million this season, and presumably wouldn't take much less to come back next season. Bagwell "earned" $17 million in 2005 (not to mention another $18 million in 2006, unless the Astros pay him $7 million to just go away). So that's $35 million on just two players, one who probably won't be very good and the other who will turn 44 during the season. That's going to make it tough for the Astros to get better this winter. It's easy for me to say they need to add a couple of good hitters, but they probably don't have the payroll flexibility to sign top free agents, and they don't have the organizational depth to trade for excellent hitters. Sure, the Astros could get exceptionally creative or exceptionally lucky next season. Probably not, though. They've been gambling a lot, and they've been winning. But in 2006, the odds are going to catch up with them. I'll be surprised if we see the Astros in the postseason again this decade. Senior writer Rob Neyer writes for Insider two or three times per week during the season. To offer criticism, praise or anything in between, send an e-mail to [email protected].

It must be the effect of TV.....

QUOTE(He Gawn!!! @ Nov 7, 2005 -> 12:26 PM) My thoughts exactally. The sig is his for sure. I pulled up numerous web sites and compared the autos. As long as I think its the actual ball, thats all that matters, right? As long as I think this is a Monet.............

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Nov 7, 2005 -> 12:32 PM) That hasn't stopped any company in this country from giving those executives $20 million raises. Considering they bought the team for that much, and now its worth 300 mil. I'd say they arent concerned about money.

Congrats!!!!!!! +1 non bandwagon sox fan. Yes!!!!!!!

I heard they were going to call it the Joe Borchard deck.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Nov 4, 2005 -> 05:56 PM) Ehh, I dunno if Timo will be back this year. Afterall, 0-for-2 in the playoffs, right? Talk about un-clutch-ness... Anyways, they couldn't just do that, because they wouldn't have a backup firstbaseman then. Maybe the Burroughs - for - Borchard trade will be revisited? We didnt really have a backup this year either. It sucks and all, but Im positive thats the way Oz will go. If it comes down to it, im sure Dye 1B and Anderson RF if Kong needs a day off

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Nov 4, 2005 -> 05:52 PM) I dunno... I just think the reason that they dislike Gload is because he can only play one spot. Not because they hate the guy. I don't recall what he said earlier in the year causing such a problem. Wasn't it pretty much along the lines of, "Well, when you don't play very often, you (meaning Ross) have to make that play, and I didn't". I certainly don't think it was meant as an, "I want more PT!" type of thing -- I mean, who was he going to play over? Konerko? He's a smarter guy than that. I think he was just dissappointed in himself, really. Who knows... I'd really like to see a bench consisting of Harris / Ozuna / Gload / Widger / Anderson (if Rowand isn't traded) -- it'd be a helluva lot better than the 2005 bench. He has been disliked before that. Not telling anyone about the extent of his injury I think was one, but who knows. its become obvious they dont like him. Your bench looks correct except put Timo in Gload's spot and there you go.

QUOTE(fathom @ Nov 4, 2005 -> 05:47 PM) Kinda reminds me of the Wunsch situation. Great example.

One mistake that you are making is thinking that I think Ross Gload is no good, or I hate him. IN fact I was calling for him to start this year, I even called for trading Paulie and having Ross be a defensive upgrade as well as an OBP upgrade. I even campaigned for Eric Chavez and Gload to be at the corners. I think he is a great hitter, and I think he COULD start for an org. But KW and Ozzie have made it perfectly clear its not this one.

QUOTE(NorthSideSox72 @ Nov 4, 2005 -> 05:41 PM) You keep saying this, and people have asked you whey this is so absolute to you. Seriously, what is the history here that some of us don't know? Is there something other than Gload asking for more playing time? Or him being upset about his own error? And still: Gload/Thomas >>> Everett Gload/Anderson > Everett You are the only one who has asked me. Not "people". Secondly, I know this because I follow this team, and I know that Gload is hated by the org, expecially KW and Ozzie. Its the same reason why they didnt bring him up to play this year, and gave him no chances. They flat out dont like him, anyone who follows this team is privy to this information. Take this post, copy it, learn it.

QUOTE(fathom @ Nov 4, 2005 -> 05:40 PM) I think there's a better chance that Frank Thomas plays in all 162 games next season than Ross Gload being on the team. theres a better chance of me playing 162 games than Gload being on the team.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Nov 4, 2005 -> 05:36 PM) Okay, so? Anderson can play against lefties, put him in a situation where he has a shot at succeeding, and Gload put up an .853 OPS when he was given a chance to play. I'm not recommending this platoon, BTW -- just saying that Gload + Anderson >>> Everett. GLOAD ISNT GOING TO PLAY FOR THE WHITE SOX why cant anyone get this point?

QUOTE(qwerty @ Nov 4, 2005 -> 05:30 PM) Well anderson has played at the big league level...as has gload the past two seasons. But gload was supposedly injured... so he was sent to the minors. Timo on the other hand was hurt all of the 2004 season, the team knew about it, and they keep him on the major league roster. Q- Seriously, tell me honestly, do you think the org would EVER let Ross Gload have a spot on the big league squad?

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Nov 4, 2005 -> 03:08 PM) I'd love for the Cubs to sign Burnett. I always figured Prior and Wood needed more company on the DL. After all, the more Kerry Wood clones, the better! According to cubs fans they are basically buying a new team. Not only that, but for the low low price of 2 prospects, everyone is willing to part with anything they have!!! I loooove cubs fans.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Nov 4, 2005 -> 05:23 PM) You don't think a Ross Gload/Brian Anderson platoon could produce more than Everett's "stellar" .745 OPS? Then again, with your analysis, it's tough to argue with ya... :rolly hahaha, seriously, Ross Gload...come on. You not only mentioned a player who hasnt played at the major league level, but then Ross Gload, who never will with this organization. Considering Ozzie and KW wont let Ross Gload play on the big team, no I dont think they can match what he did.

Yes, all is well.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Nov 4, 2005 -> 02:15 PM) Well, 2003, he stayed healthy, and was the team's best hitter. I'm not saying you'll have to 'rely' on him. Hell, Carl Everett was our DH and we made out okay -- there's no doubt in my mind a Ross Gload and Brian Anderson platoon could do a better job than Everett did last year.

QUOTE(Steff @ Nov 4, 2005 -> 01:01 PM) What a mess.. Get Ozzie in there to fix it. hes there right now.

QUOTE(Texsox @ Nov 4, 2005 -> 02:32 PM) Like daddy will let him near the computer . . . its in the dna

QUOTE(NUKE_CLEVELAND @ Nov 4, 2005 -> 09:55 AM) That's gonna be me. They're afraid I'll blow up the place if I ever become a mod. HAHA I think I would be in the running for last poster.

Whats the over/under on how long it take the baby to get to 1000 posts?

Pirated music has helped the emergence of many new and not previously well known artist, not to mention boosting the actual awareness of the quality of upcoming albums. I along with the greatful dead am very in favor of it.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Nov 4, 2005 -> 12:44 PM) I think the Cubs are going to wind up with Furcal. Guy who spent years lying about his age, who's overpriced, and who has had a couple of DUI's in the past? Sounds like their kind of guy. See, there's the kind of trouble AJ causes...then there's the other kind of trouble... who also is a great lead off guy with a cannon for an arm.

I will be in cincy as well. tearing up Newport beforehand and Mt adams after.