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QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 09:04 AM) Not at all. I think he COULD be. I'd say it's 20% chance he is an ace 40% chance he is a 2/3 30% chance he is a 4/5 10% chance he's a dud Those are strong odds for a prospect. Thus more valuable, in my mind than a 3-4 WAR veteran who's already reached his peak and is likely to decline and would likely put us back to 2009-2012 territory of mediocrity and bad contracts. The reward is too high not to take the shot - we'll either have the best starting staff in MLB OR it will allow us to trade one of them at their youthful peak and shore up 3-4 other positions. Very strong odds considering you made them up and haven't seen him pitch let alone pitch in the MLB.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Dec 18, 2014 -> 08:25 AM) I actually think Rodon is more similar to David Price. Still an ace though. Carlos Rodon is a future #1 starter in the major leagues. Not sure why people are really doubting that. I always doubt prospect until they show at least something in the MLB. The minors can be an indication of what they might be but it's nowhere near a guarantee and he has very little experience in the minors. Many top minors league players let alone draft picks have flamed out and have not been good MLB players let alone aces. Until I see him pitch a few times, the chances are better he fails than success. I've worked many successful minor leaguers who just couldn't cut it in the MLB. He may currently fall into the "ace stuff" category but we'll see. I'm hopeful but to say he is a MLB ace is getting out way over the skis right now.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 06:51 PM) The fact that the Sox have a good chance to have Chris Sale #2 be damned. Really. Wow, I think you are getting way ahead of yourself. Hsve you seen his walk rate? That could be a real problem for success in the mlb.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 07:34 PM) First MLB game was 1979...Gary Templeton and the Cardinals played at Wrigley. Do those 45 and older get a SoxTalk member discount or at least a discount card for Arby's or something? Love me some Big Beef N' Cheddar sandwiches with curly fries!!!

QUOTE (dasox24 @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 05:35 PM) Boom. Can't believe they're actually doing it. But he deserves to be benched.... I assume this means he'll be gone in the offseason. You can't bench him and then bring him back. I think its more that trestman realuzes he's gone and is finally just goung to do what he wants.

QUOTE (BigEdWalsh @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 03:42 PM) When I was 16 Nolan Ryan was a rookie with the Mets. I don't feel so bad. Ron kittle was ROY when I was 16.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 04:20 PM) And they also got rid of Bauer because of his long-toss rituals. The Dbacks are such a screwed up organization to play for, it seems. This I can understand. Its one thing to try to keep someone s musculoskeletal system healthy, there aren't that many variations to the anatomy. An injury can cost a great deal of money. However, not eveyone needs the same diet. Gluten free isn't needed for everyone. Different people have different sensitivities and needs nutritionally. I happen to agree with the long toss regimen and think it's the best way to keep the arm healthy but I can see where a different philosophy could cause difficulties.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 12:20 PM) Miley thinks he was traded, at least in part, because he wasn't willing to be gluten free. http://www.azcentral.com/story/sports/mlb/...ation/20509839/ If the D-backs are really trying to do a one diet fits all players, that is awful. Professionals should know better. It's a black eye to our profession.

For all of the people on this board who want prospects, eventually you need to let them play.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 09:08 AM) Well, that's a separate issue but consistent with what I'm arguing -- which is that you need to consider only what informs the future when you're making a tactical decision. True, but the linear stats don't take these into consideration. There is no stat available that will predict what the other manager will do thus what your decision must be two innings later. So, regardless of what the linear weights say, sometimes you just can't make that move. It may tell you what the best move would be but that isn't always the correct one. Just like in a given season there are times where a manger will realize that he must lose a game for the bigger objective of having a better season. This could be due to saving a bullpen, starting pitcher or resting players.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 10:57 AM) Ah, I see one other person has joined me in the 42-47 bracket. The old fogies. For the record, I JUST turned 42 a few days ago. Only one person has marked as being older than me (48-53 group) . I didn't realize I was that old for this group.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 17, 2014 -> 12:27 AM) 1. Leury had not posted an .067 OBP at the time the decisions were being made. Back to my original post that you responded to: "people refuse to judge decisions based on the information available at the time." 2. Linear weights make the most sense BY FAR when making a decision about the thing that's about to happen, because they are designed specifically to measure the mean result. RV was not able to go forward in time and see that Leury Grcia batted almost as bad as anyone can possibly bat in those four games. The ONLY thing that matters when you're about to make a decision are the likely next outcomes and the likely next cost/rewards -- and linear weights stats were literally MADE to do the latter. You want to use context-dependent stats when describing what DID happen, but that is never an option when you're deciding what you WILL do now. I would disagree that the only thing that matters is the next likely outcome. I think the manager also needs to look at what the other manager may do in response to certain decisions and think ahead to this decision may impact decisions later in the game.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 10:50 AM) f*** the last 2 guys Gosh darn awful with the lack of creativity

QUOTE (Knuckles @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 02:46 PM) Anyone else sporting a chubby? Must be the PEDs that seems to be what everyone is worrying about.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 10:24 AM) Defined in a very broad manner. This business of "X has the 7th", "Y has the 8th" is silly stuff. It only makes sense when you have a sizable lead in a game. Their role is to get outs. Use the best pitchers when there are men on base. I thought he handled the pen fine, running out of pitchers in that game notwithstanding. He tended to leave in starters too long - the good ones were overpitched (although Ventura quit using them 110+ pitches after he put Sale on the DL) as were the bad ones (presumably because the bullpen was weak - hopefully he'll yank Danks this year before he pitches us out of games). His personality is fine, as long as the players are motivated, which these players should be. You contradict yourself. You said he leaves starters in too long, which i disagree with, 110 is not too long. Then you say you hop he pulls Danks earlier. He didn't have a bullpen to work with. They sucked. You can't pitch only a few guys in the bullpen repeatedly. You have to define the role in the bullpen. You don't need to do it by innings. The pitchers are most effective when they know what the role is, such as if they have a lead and need someone in the 7th and the good hitters are up, Duke is in. If it's the same situation but the bottom of the order is up Petricka is in. They can't just say the job is to get outs. How comfortable would you be at your job if your Boss said your job was to do what he said when he says it. right now it's getting the coffee, later today you need to change the transmission in a semi tractor and I don't care if you have never done either one. By the way I expect you to get it right otherwise you're fired. You could do it but the odds of you being successful are pretty low. Outs at different points in the game are different. If you put your best reliever in the game in the 7th inning how do you know there won't be a more important situation later.

QUOTE (peppers312 @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 09:20 AM) the Yankees who paid Alex Rodriguez $252.87M sure don't have a problem signing roiders and getting to the playoffs all the time. not sure why White Sox fans have a problem with supporting a team that signed a guy who got caught and served his time. to me, it's old news and everyone deserves a second chance to redeem themselves. The first part where "I can do it because someone else did is a poor philosophy to live by" The last part where he deserves a second chance is a good one. He did his time if he gets caught again, he'll get punished. now that MLB has a good punishment policy for violators, they should let it take it's course.

The teams are playing by the rules. It's the players that take it upon themselves to try to cheat the system in these ways.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 09:10 AM) http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/8769398/...-hall-fame-vote So do you have any respect for the accomplishments of Mantle, Mays, and Aaron? Afterall, Aaron is the "true home run king," right? amphetamines weren't illegal at the time. Every single player used amphetamines. There is a difference between the effects of amphetamines and steroids. One just allows you to keep focus and helps you to perform at your talent level more often, the other actually changes what your talent level is. While I think that steroids ruined alot of the game, this is not a good comparison.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 08:33 AM) http://www.hardballtimes.com/tht-live/chri...s-faulty-elbow/ The article is fairly accurate. The are a couple of points that come to mind. 1. The elbow extension. While it's true the the more extended it is the more valgus stress and thus the vulnerability to elbow injuries. Sale though goes beyond the point to near full extension when the elbow is actually more stable because of the bones locking in place. This amy be why he gets elbow soreness from the flexor muscle but not ligament damage, yet any way. 2. They neglect to discuss the early part of the motion where he really quickly, much more than normal, flips his shoulder from internal rotation to external rotation. this will create a force of the humeral head moving forward in the joint thus "loosening" the joint prematurely. Similar to Danks or Doc Gooden. This has always been my concern. the shoulder is my concern for a significant injury.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 03:16 PM) Why? Keith Law doesn't hate the White Sox, never has, and previously was calling it liked he saw it. He didn't see Sale as anything other than a potential reliever and then stated that he never saw Sale's slider turning into a plus-plus pitch, like it has. He saw him as fastball-change. Frankly, what the Sox have been able to do with Sale is incredible. There is no way any team other than the Sox saw him like this or he would have gone #1 overall. Plus Montas is practically a Red Sox prospect anyways. no, this is his way of CYA. Regardless of how Montas turns out he can say, "I told you he had Ace stuff and he became good" or "I said he had Ace stuff but it was the other factors that I mentioned for the reason he busted."

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 08:06 AM) First, I would question the validity of any stat that attempts to measure effectiveness. If you have a list of some of these metrics then please share. Second, some people may be unable to separate the talent level from the manager' performance, but that doesn't mean we all do. I only worry about the things Robin can control, which talent hasn't nothing to do with. I personally think he's a poor in-game decision-maker. I feel like he doesn't think two or three moves ahead ever. I'm also skeptical that he uses much data in his decision-making. Overall, I just don't find him to be a very strategic person. Of course the talent effects what he can do. For example, what if you are in a game situation that calls for a pinch hitter. Everyone knows it, Robin, Hawk, the announcer, the metrics guy and every fan in the stadium. Robin looks down his bench and sees....................... Leury Garcia. Now even though every knows he should pinch hit do you go with Garcia? What is the likelyhood that the decision will succeed? The talent definitely dictates what the manager can do.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 13, 2014 -> 05:08 PM) See Esteban Loiaza. Steve Stone

QUOTE (AlSoxfan @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 07:32 AM) My question is did RV manage the bullpen or did Coop? I still have to scratch my head in wonder when he brought in LGar in a tie game in April. In most situations the pitching coach suggests what to do and the manager makes the decision, usually in line with the pitching coach. With Cooper's experience and success, Robin usually listens to Cooper but he makes the final decision.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Dec 16, 2014 -> 07:09 AM) At best, the results are mixed. 2012, we used, what, 12-13 different rookies....mostly in the bullpen, along with Quintana. In that situation, he did about as good a job as possible but the last 2-3 weeks were a different story, that 4-11 finish. 2013 was pretty much a disaster from all standpoints. 2014, we were lacking in talent/personnel...of course, the opposite's true heading into 2015, so a lot of questions SHOULD be answered this season about Ventura as a manager. All indications are that he's probably about average or just a notch below in most aspects (keeping calm and even-keeled being his best quality)...the bigger question is whether he can help push a team with talent that's a bit "above average" into a playoff spot? Will the team be dragged down or can he manage to elevate them...by 1 or 2 or 3 games, whatever it is that we can all agree is the actual number of games a "great" manager can make in difference over an average or below-average one? If Ned Yost could do it in 2014, why not Ventura in 2015? He's not going to have the past as an excuse. Other than a few players who have been questionable on the fundamental side of things like Ramirez and Viciedo, he's got an almost entirely different ball club than the one Detroit blew past down the stretch in 2012. I would agree. Short of long term injuries to key players, Ventura has good players to work with and his worth as a manager should be evident. Good or Bad. I tend to agree with your assessment so far, he is right around average. However, I do think he still has room to grow as he gains experience, especially experience with a team with decent talent. It's hard to learn which players to use in a given situation when the players suck.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 15, 2014 -> 10:40 PM) When Asked about "roles" last year, Ventura astutely said that their role is to get outs. I hope he maintains that philosophy. He still needs work on those bunting in front of Abreu and pulling Abreu for pinch runners thingies he does . That was a quote out of frustration when his bullpen was blowing games. He will not be able to do that with a successful bullpen. The roles need to be defined in some manner.