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Still think it will be a choice between Kolek and Nola. Both have pros and cons. How quickly will they help the team vs. potential ace,

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 12:52 PM) As has been said -- what "games" is Boras gonna play? He is hand cuffed under the new CBA. See last year, when Appel was taken #1 overall and Boras couldn't do anything to get him overslot: http://mlb.si.com/2013/06/20/mark-appel-as...top-pick-signs/ The worst thing that could happen with Rodon is he signs for like 5% over bonus. I don't think that's going to deter the Sox from taking him if he's a clear #1 on their board at that pick. Could he hold his guy out a year and pitch in an independent league?

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 12:13 PM) He also pitches on 7 days rest. That was something Mike Ferrin pointed out about college velocity at one point. Good point.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 12:05 PM) I would feel a lot better had Hoffman not gotten injured. Spillt milk. Yes. He was the Sox pick.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 12:02 PM) Using extreme examples to illustrate a point doesn't make it less valid. This is the internet, extreme examples are commonplace. Also, telling a kid who's used to throwing with max effort to not throw harder isn't easy. A lot of pitchers can't maintain their control when they ease back. It's like trying to ride a bike slow. It's hard to stay upright. Doesn't mean it's right. I think we can agree that most of these players in the draft will not perform at a HOF level during there career. So the example isn't very realistic. I disagree about teaching the pitching aspect. Pitchers have poorer control when they try to over throw. If you have them back off the control improves. It's not a given that everyone can do it but most can.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 11:34 AM) 2 predictions that are locks: Whoever the Sox select first, it will be the player they have been targeting all along, and they will be in disbelief that the player they select with their second choice slipped to them. And the one thing I will be skipping tonight when watching the draft is Bud announcing the Dodgers and Angels picks. His pronounciation of Los Angeleese is like fingernails on a chalkboard to me. You forgot the other lock: Soxtalk will immediately crash due to the overwhelming response that the Sox have doomed the franchise with this obviously blown pick. And that KW should not have over ruled RH and picked the player.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 11:11 AM) You dont have to throw 100 to pitch off your fastball. It's like people don't remember guys like Martinez, Maddux and, to a lesser extent, Schilling. They all were capable of throwing hard, but sat in the low to mid 90's with movement and control. You can have Nolan Ryan, I'll take Greg Maddux. You are talking about once in a lifetime HOF pitchers there. The vast majority of pitchers cannot do that. That's like teaching all hitters to hit off the front foot because Hank Aaron and Frank Thomas did. Very few can be successful at it.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 10:55 AM) It's probably because Stone isn't a loudmouth idiot. Anyway, it still blows my mind with how infatuated people are with velocity. Movement and control have always, and will always, be more important than velocity. Yes, but if you take a guy who throws 100 with good control and teach him great command at 95 you have the best of both worlds and an All_star pitcher.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 10:54 AM) According to Perfect Game, that's exactly what he is. http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9818 Edit: we should expect Nola to touch 95 as much as we should expect Kolek to touch 102. Nola is a low-90s guy with great command of the fastball and change. Kolek draws comps to Nolan Ryan and Kerry Wood. If you're a-scared, buy a dog. Then you take Kolek. I though I read he sits more in the 92-94 range. I agree Kolek has the higher upside but I don't know if I risk it here. The Sox have taken too many "higher upside" players lately and the system has suffered.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 10:43 AM) Agree, but again, we're not picking mid-to-late round here. Players like this exist in every draft, and you can find/develop them out of other organizations using lesser assets than the #3 overall draft pick. I mean, if we had an excellent RHSP between Sale and Q as your top 3 but needed something behind that, would you really be worried about the Sox having to find a #3-4 somewhere? We can pick these guys up whenever thanks to Mr. Cooper. Also if the Sox are concerned about getting players here as quickly as possible then obviously they still haven't learned anything because that goes completely against their stated current philosophy. Get the best players on the farm you can, develop them as best you can, try to figure out which ones you should trade and then do it, and when you call up players, make sure they're ready to be here and good enough to be here. Sox need to start at Step 1, not Step 4 or 5, and they need to go with the upside here. I don't think there are many pitchers with mid-90's stuff and his reported command. Usually the "impeccable" control guys sit around 90-92.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 10:41 AM) I said I want, as a biased Sox fan. Hahn has been alluding to us signing under slot for the overall draft for a while. If we could could draft Nola and sign him less than or equal to 5 million it would be a nice shot in the arm for the rest of the draft. 3rd pick - 5.72 million 8th pick - 3.91 million I don't its realistic to think he will sign for significantly under slot so you would need to go to your next pick who you think is worthy of that slot.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 10:35 AM) This thread will be fun to revisit 3-5 years from now. I'm hoping to be alive and that point to have people take shots at me.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 10:33 AM) Hoping for Aiken/Rodon falling to us. Just want to hear any name but these for the first two picks. If they don't fall I want Nola way under slot. With the way all the experts have him climbing the boards, do you really think he'll sign for any significant under slot?

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 10:32 AM) If the Sox are split on Kolek/Nola it's just because they are afraid. Upside on a healthy Nola realistically is going to be a 3 type of guy. He'll get there quicker, and if he does well then he's probably easier to extend. Downside #1 is he loses stuff and is a MLB #5 starter or reliever. Downside #2 is he just gets hurt and flames out. Extra factor here is that if you clearly pass on Kolek to take this guy, no matter what Nola does, if Kolek turns out you're going to have to live with letting your same-city rival or your same-division rival get an ace because you were too scared to put your balls on the line. And for that you would deserve to be fired. Upside on a healthy Kolek realistically is going to be a 1-3 type of guy, depending almost entirely on his mental ability & composure on the mound along with his breaking ball, probably just one of the slider/curve to go with a change. If the secondary stuff comes along and he's a gamer on the mound, he's a true ace. Kolek might take an extra 1-1.5 years, still putting him as a fit with our core. Kolek would cost more money though if he does really well, and we'd have to be more aggressive in pursuing an extension to buy out his arb years. Downside #1 is he loses stuff or doesn't have the mental makeup and is more like a Gavin Floyd #3 type. Downside #2 is he also flames out. Extra factor here is that if you clearly pass on Nola to take Kolek, nodoby f***ing cares. No matter what Nola does, you're not missing anything in Nola you can't acquire through lesser means. From a hotseat standpoint, Kolek and his upside is the safer pick. Then you have the trade value perspective. Let's say whoever you pick is going to be packaged in a big deal for a young star player. The next time there's one of these Stanton types out there, or whoever, what do you think the team you're dealing with would rather have, Kolek or Nola? If you have any worries whatsoever on Kolek once he's in your system, you can always deal him off for a haul assuming he's healthy and you're getting the deal done in time. The game of baseball is based around pitching. Assuming 2 players are both healthy (and there is NO reason to assume Kolek is an injury risk while Nola is not, that's absurd, all pitchers are risks) and also assuming both players have the proper mental aspects/composure on the mound, the bigger, nastier guy with the much better arm is the one you want on the mound because he is going to have the best chance between the two of them of consistently getting hitters out. There is something to be said for the still good stuff, with better command and proven against more advanced competition.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 10:18 AM) http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2082398...ry=Aaron%20Nola He throws from a really low arm slot. He doesn't hide the ball well at all. I wonder if this will make him vulnerable to LH hitters at the next level.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 10:02 AM) I wouldn't touch a HS kid that throws 103. No way. Didn't think I would ever see the comment that people would not want hard throwers. Look at what the Sox did with Sale. He could throw 99 regularly out of the pen. They taught him to dial it down and throw 94 consistently with better movement and control. This is what they would do with Kolek. He can throw and easy 95. That is a good weapon to have. Just because he can throw 100 doesn't mean he will once he learns pitching.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 09:50 AM) It's a bit premature to anoint Kolek as Strasburg/Clemens/Wood/Beckett rolled into one perfect package. There has to be a lot of red flags with a high schooler throwing 103 MPH. It's simply human nature to not trust those numbers at that age (holding up) three to five years from now. Let's just put it this way, there are a lot more hits than misses with pitching high in the draft. The fact is that only Longoria and Machado have been "good" picks there over a long time period should tell you something about the odds going more and more against you with each subsequent pick downwards from 1-1. This is why you teach him to throw 95 with alot of movement and improved control.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jun 5, 2014 -> 07:28 AM) Why is Kolek falling? Because the Sox will take a college pitcher at this position in the draft.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 10:09 PM) Just like Doug Eddings, I will never complain about him. Beckett is a fun guy. I worked with him as an 18 yo at Kane County. He was the living Nuke LaLoosh. But fastball and no idea where it was going. I think he hit the Cougar once.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 01:12 PM) Lowrie went to Stanford. Don't say that on this message board. I once said that Richard Sherman had to have some intelligence because he went to Stanford. What followed was an attack about how going to college, or a certain college or anything doesn't mean you are intelligent because of grade inflation, poor teachers, street smarts..............

RIP One of the true fun characters of the game. Today's game needs more fun loving guys like him.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:49 AM) That full year in the bullpen was an utter mistake. I don't think so. I think they were trying to find out if he could handle MLB hitters and a significant workload. Once the answers were yes, they moved him to the rotation to see if he could handle it.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 09:52 AM) http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/ast...e02ca9cd87bd7f9 "If you look at every organization, I think the trend is going toward sheer statistical-driven analysis, and I think that (the Astros) are certainly on the front lines of that," said former Astros shortstop Jed Lowrie, now with Oakland. "Baseball is kind of going through this tectonic shift, and there are people out there banging on tables saying, 'This is not the way the game's supposed to be played or evaluated.' But from a business standpoint, I get it. Wow, a MLB player using tectonic properly. Even the player are getting smarter.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 07:37 AM) Well, one writer with the Detroit Free Press is apparently blaming their playoff problems on two specific positions in the batting order...not pitching, not shaky bullpen or fielding issues. The Tigers are 27th in the majors in OPS (on base plus slugging percentage) from the fifth spot in the batting order. Their RBI production ranks 18th overall in the majors. They rank 28th in RBI production and OPS from the sixth spot. That’s the biggest problem with this team. That’s why they lost Tuesday. It’s why they’ve failed in the playoffs the past two years. As great as the Prince Fielder trade was for the Tigers in unloading a bad contract — as well as acquiring Ian Kinsler — it created another hole in a batting order that already was challenged at providing run production. Victor Martinez has performed at an All-Star level replacing Fielder in the cleanup spot behind Miguel Cabrera. But it created another hole in the lineup that Austin Jackson and others haven’t adequately filled. Blaming the bullpen for the Tigers’ recent inconsistencies might make the panicked feel a little better, but it doesn’t address the real issues facing this team if they’re indeed a serious championship contender. Drew Sharp (freep.com/sports) Ok. So he pointed out they have poor production from a single spot in the batting order. That's his opinion as to why the run production is down. It really has nothing to do with acquiring "lesser talented" players in favor of the model that Oakland follows.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 12:41 PM) The Beane model isn't necessarily about OBP, though, it's about punting skills that the market values and hoarding skills that the market ignores. It's about accepting (and finding a way to mitigate) a player's flaws for the sake of acquiring his strengths at a discount. That OBP happened to be undervalued when Moneyball was written was just coincidence. I agree, OBP was just the example that you said was correlated to winning. However, it applies to everything he uses as well. He uses data based on all of the games played. Which as I stated before includes the poorer teams and pitchers. It works in the regular season but it is not the same sample that occurs during the post season. This is only the good teams or players This is why I think it doesn't necessarily apply to being successful in the post-season. edit: you could look at the players in a retrospective study and see how they do against only the top 20 pitchers or so. This may tell you more about the validity of the process, if post season success is your goal.