ptatc

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 11:23 AM) Every team is worse against good player than they are against bad players. The "OBP only works in large samples" thing is totally bonkers -- OBP is strongly correlated with winning, all the good teams have good OBP no matter how they're built. There isn't anything remotely close to enough data to make any conclusion about the "Oakland way" working or not working in the postseason. There are lots of hypotheses, and people should feel free to cling to them, but they should also know that there aren't facts to back those hypotheses up. It's correlated to winning against all teams and pitchers including the bad to average ones. If you take away the bad to average pitchers who give up more walk and hits the average hitter will not fair as well. However, the highly talented player has a better chance. This is what happens in the playoffs. It doesn't always workout of course as all players have bad games and series. However, the Oakland practice of less talented players but with the high OBP and such has a lesser chance to succeed than the talented player. Now in Oakland Beane needs to do this a with his payroll. He needs to take these chances and make the team look good during the season to maximize his earnings from the fan base. This doesn't mean that all teams should adopt this model that do not have his same limitations.

QUOTE (Butter Parque @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 09:56 AM) A's Article I could read about the way the A's go about their business all day everyday. I found it interesting that their draft philosophy completely goes against the philosophy of the White Sox. According to them, they don't care about tools and don't chase potential stars. And they don't win World Series Championships either.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 2, 2014 -> 06:27 PM) Still, the theories are correct, especially for a small market team with limited revenues. We can say the same thing about the Atlanta Braves, and yet who wouldn't want to experience their level of success all those seasons? In order to get to the World Series and win it, you have to put yourself in playoff position on a consistent basis (see Detroit Tigers). PLUS, we just had absolutely EVERYTHING go our way in 2005, it's not nearly as easy as we made it look that year...not even so easy to get back to the playoffs for the White Sox, let alone making it 2 of 3 years or 3 of 4. The problem with this is that the theory is based on a player using the averages such as OBP to be succeesful. This works in the regular season where you get to face average or below average pitchers. This type of player has less of a chance in the playoffs against good to great pitchers which the playoff teams typically have. This is why they don't do as well in the playoffs. In a 7 game series the talent wins not playing the averages. Of course, going by the averages occasinally they do win.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ Jun 2, 2014 -> 06:15 PM) eh, if it was so easy everyone would do it. Donaldson is like an 7-8 WAR player, that's a pretty f***ing good foundation. Basically it comes down to "find really good players". Correct.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 2, 2014 -> 06:04 PM) http://www.nbcsports.com/baseball/mlb/oakland-way Great article, long, but as always with Posnanski, worth reading. 1) They don't invest in toolsy outfielders who strike out way too many times compared to their walk rates...they have brought in players like Cespedes, Crisp and Gentry at the major league level with lots of athleticism, but they don't try to make athletes into ballplayers as a consistent drafting/development philosophy. 2) They aren't afraid to use platoons and make back-up plans, even when those guys are hitting as well as Moss (see the trade for Kyle Blanks example) this season. 3) With pitching, target strikethrowers and "outs getters" more than being overly concerned with radar guns and K's, especially in stadiums with lots of foul territory and dead fog nights where the ball doesn't carry. That would lead to the White Sox taking either Aiken or Nola over the likes of Rodon/Kolek. It might also have something to do with what's going on with Beck and Danish. See examples of Kazmir and Millone, who throws the same as Buehrle and Chen. 4) Don't use the bullpen in conventional ways or follow the textbook...be imaginative (or the opposite of Ventura for much of his time in Chicago). Also, be willing to admit you're wrong with guys like Johnson and be willing to go with an untested Doolittle (and quickly). 5) The biggest lesson, perhaps...not getting discouraged with one or two failures at the major league level, but having longer-lasting confidence in their original assessments on players and their AA/AAA results (see Donaldson, Josh). Don't get too discouraged or give up too quickly on a Marcus Semien when he gets overmatched and has a lot of traits you like in his minor league statistics (pitch taking/working the count, OBP, low K/BB ratios, even to the point where there are more BB's than walks). 6) No matter how ugly a guy's scouting profile or lack of tools, does he get on base? Does he limit the number of outs he gives up to the opposition? 7) Play to the averages so you can win against many poor teams in the regular season but lose in the post season.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jun 2, 2014 -> 10:39 AM) The good news is his power was here, which I didn't know was real. The bad news is the k rate and contact numbers. Both of those I'd say are indicative of needing more seasoning. These usually go together. More power=more K.

QUOTE (ZoomSlowik @ May 31, 2014 -> 10:06 PM) Yeah, it'd be easier for me to just drive to the brewery. Not a fan, huh? I admit it's starting to seem like they're more trouble than they're worth. If it makes you feel any better, I've purchased a fair amount of other stuff during this search (mostly Ommegang and Allagash). Great brewery tour right near the HOF. It's a good weekend to spend hitting both of those.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 31, 2014 -> 12:40 PM) If he is cleared to return he should. No reason to miss the entire season just because. It's possible but remote the he could be cleared. It's a 3-6 month rehab for the everyday person. This puts it in Sept or Oct. With the stress he'll have on it the rehab will probably be towards the conservative end. If he is ready, no reason not to play him.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ May 30, 2014 -> 11:46 PM) Genetics suck I assume. Sometimes. Although the only reason he was as good as he was is due to his huge hands. That was why he could throw the split so well. His fingers literally wrapped around the ball.

QUOTE (BamaDoc @ May 30, 2014 -> 11:13 PM) I thought Jack had elbow surgery and had a nerve injury. Am I wrong, I could be thinking of someone else? He may have. I know the beginning of the end for him was the hip.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ May 29, 2014 -> 06:59 PM) I'll put out the PTATC signal... ATTENTION PTATC PLEASE RESPOND IN THIS THREAD WE NEED YOU AGAIN Okay I couldn't find an approprate image in google (actually I did find the perfect one but I'll link it rather than post: http://maneggs.com/wp-content/uploads/2011...nal_vandals.jpg ) So here's this instead: I've always been a Batman fan, now moreso.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 30, 2014 -> 05:49 PM) I would have to question the motivation of a man who makes his money performing surgeries, coming up with ways to prevent theses surgeries. Actually, he made his name with Wilk with the conservative care and rehab advances in medicine. The Jobe-Kerling group really pioneered the surgeries, although Andrews did come up with some improvements. I've known Kevin for a long time and have taken many of the Pitching courses by them at the ASMI in Birmingham. They do good work and are highly repected. Kevin is a good down to earth guy. Andrews is a typical orthopedic surgeon and McDowell is right about his ego. As one once told me "I may think I can correct God's work but that doesn't mean I think I'm God.....well maybe.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ May 30, 2014 -> 06:05 PM) I know that is what did in Britt Burns. I did not know that about Blackjack Same type of degenerative hip issue.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 30, 2014 -> 04:38 PM) Status Update By Jack McDowell I'm noticing that the one and only BS artist and blowhard Dr. James Andrews is jumping all over this "Tommy John" debate with advice and a new (money making) app regarding the same. Let's get a few things straight... Andrews has studied the biomechanics of throwing since the 80's and anyone who has actually read the "findings" will discover that nothing was really found, and the consequential pitch count beginnings and "perfect" mechanics are both lies and unscientific. Now, it's all about youth baseball because he failed at developing significant information to "prevent injury" for older athletes. It's all a scam. This guy is a scam and has offered NOTHING significantly constructive to the betterment of baseball pitching. Stop buying into this egomaniacs posing. He came up with ZERO after 30 years of analyzing. McDowell is right to a certain extent. There are studies done where we know when the UCL or the rotator cuff is under the most stress. There are very few "this" is what caused the injury. But there are those few things we know to avoid. Andrerws and a PT named Kevin Wilk who is from Joliet, have done a lot of research on the rehab of injuries that do work. If you've ever seen pitchers work with the therabands, this is the "throwers ten" program they've developed. Fleisig who does most of the research on the youth pitchers has some very compelling research with the number of pitches and rest for pitchers. This is what the app is based on. Overall, it has a very sound base but as with all research on humans there are very few absolutes. however, there are some knowns that should be followed.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ May 30, 2014 -> 05:16 PM) What eventually did McDowell in, shoulder? Hip issues were the biggest thing.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 30, 2014 -> 09:57 AM) I get scared on Kolek simply because he is, by definition, an outlier. Our standards of injury risk have never included someone THIS young throwing THIS hard. This, of course, doesn't mean he's absolutely at higher risk, but I've got to feel like it's more likely to make him higher risk than lower risk. It's more stress than ever on a younger ligament than ever. It all depends on the effort for how hard he throws. If he is throwing 100 with max effort, have him throw 95 with less than the max effort. He will throw harder than most without the stress.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ May 30, 2014 -> 09:10 AM) No. ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

QUOTE (Lillian @ May 30, 2014 -> 08:35 AM) That's great, but I hope that he doesn't throw too many of those breaking balls. Those are the pitches that lead to elbow problems. The change up is a better off speed pitch than the curve ball, anyway and it doesn't stress the arm. The pitches are fine if you throw them correctly. Throwing breaking balls does not inherently lead to elbow problems. Even with the large number of injuries this year, it's still a fraction of the overall number of pitchers who throw breaking pitches, which is everyone. I still think it's the overall effort of the delivery that makes the biggest difference. How much effort does it take to throw the 94 mph fastball. Many can do it, but how hard do they need to work at it. That's why a guy like Kolek who can throw over 100 could back off and safely throw 95.

QUOTE (beautox @ May 29, 2014 -> 08:49 PM) Agreed, Rodon fits very nicely with our timeline and i think the sox can break him in, in a similar fashion to Sale. His velocity is real and his breaking ball is the best in the draft hands down; that slider is nasty. If we land him I'm very confident the sox will be able to develop his change-up well beyond a show me pitch and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see him learn a cutter seeing how that seems to be this organizations pitch de jour. If Rodon isn't there I Like Aiken the Kolek as both of them dove tail nicely with our next crop of arms in Danish and Montas I'm still not a fan of the way he throws. I don't like the stand up follow through without the trunk flexion. He finishes like Peavy does. It wouldn't prevent me from drafting him but it would make me look at the others more closely.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 29, 2014 -> 06:54 PM) The point is that if you have one TJ, you've just moved up your timeline for a second. And almost (if not literally) no one has come back effective form the 2nd TJ. I don't think this is true, other than the fact that you can't have a second until you've had the first.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ May 29, 2014 -> 02:56 PM) PTATC should come in here and talk more about this. He is our Medical Steverson, or Health Steverson, etc. Arm Steverson. Edit: also I downloaded a penis enlargement program I'm at a solid 8 but was thinking about trying some techniques to get that sucker up to about 11" or so, was wondering if PTATC has any info on proper enlargement practices & so on. Thanks I'll hang up and listen. Mechanics is only one of the factors related to the injury. I wouldn't rule anyone out based on mechanics alone. Workload and economy of effort are important factors as well. As for the the second part, that isn't one of my areas of research as I don't have that problem.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ May 29, 2014 -> 01:19 PM) I have no issue with people who want to have guns. And maybe in the end having guns is more benefit to society than not having guns. I am not really sure to be honest. In your situation I would want to know if there is any other way to accomplish the same end, without the use of a gun. Or perhaps with a gun that is less lethal. I assume that you are mainly using a rifle against animals? (edit) And poor word choice on banning. They severely restricted the ability of people to buy guns, especially handguns. This would be appropriate. The restriction would be for the person to prove 1) they had a reason for owning the weapon; 2) had a secure place for them to be locked up and 3) had a reasonable area to use them.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ May 29, 2014 -> 01:19 PM) I have no issue with people who want to have guns. And maybe in the end having guns is more benefit to society than not having guns. I am not really sure to be honest. In your situation I would want to know if there is any other way to accomplish the same end, without the use of a gun. Or perhaps with a gun that is less lethal. I assume that you are mainly using a rifle against animals? I use mostly shotguns, the use of rifles except on target ranges is illegal in Illinois. Of course there are other means but they are far less effective (trapping) or costly (electric fencing). I edited the previous post to show how the gun laws are in England and the UK and I wouldn't have a problem with the way they do it where the burden is placed on the person not so much the government.

QUOTE (Soxbadger @ May 29, 2014 -> 12:41 PM) Throughout history things change. Banning guns happened in England. It could happen here. But it requires people to have a conversation about the value of guns in society, as opposed to putting their fingers in their ears and saying "never." Im not a defeatist, I do believe things can change. I guess I'm on the other side. I use guns on a regular basis for hunting target shooting and for the protection of the farm against coyotes and other animals. I do not think banning guns is a good idea. Restrictions on people who have a history of mental illness is a must. In England civilians are not banned from owning guns. They just treat it differently than here. There you need to do alot of paperwork and prove you are mentally capable. You can get a shotgun license to hunt or target shoot. You can get a handgun license for pest control. It's just that the burden is placed on the person to prove they are capable as opposed to here where the government is burdened to prove you don't deserve them.

QUOTE (oneofthemikes @ May 29, 2014 -> 09:27 AM) I agree. I'm cooling on Kolek and the more I read, the more I think that both Aiken and Rodon will be gone by 3. Unfortunately, I think Kolek is TJ surgery waiting to happen. If Nola were available underslot, I would rather take him and still end up with a pitcher that has stellar command and 3 good offerings and then spend more on the next several picks. There is nothing in his history to suggest this.