ptatc

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 7, 2014 -> 02:54 PM) Maybe YOU did, but the RBI total lied to you about it, and many mainstream media pundits and fans were calling for a huge contract extension for Brandon Phillips now that he had "evolved his game to become a run producer." Further, Phillips himself famously lambasted fan pressure to improve his game citing that his RBI totals spoke for themselves, as if better productivity wouldn't lead to more RBIs as a by-product. I guess what I'm saying is that if you have to ignore a stat in certain situations because you "just know better," what use does that stat have? If it's right except when it's wrong, and you already know when it's right or wrong, you really don't need the stat. It's not telling you anything in terms of player evaluation. This is true. I don't think that any one stat should be used in all situations. I think each case is individual and no one thing can tell me everything about a player or that player's performance. This is why I advocate for the use of all of them and not not placing too much focus on any one of them. You need to use the eye ball test, advanced metrics and traditional stats together to get a true evaluation of any player. Maybe this is just from my doing research for admission to physical therapy graduate school. I think if I look at a variety of grades, tests, interviews, I get a better idea of the potential for this applicant to get through school, pass the license exam and become a quality physical therapist.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ May 7, 2014 -> 03:11 PM) I really don't care. My point is that smoking pot didn't cause his, or any other athlete's, decline in performance. The old joke in the NBA is that in the80s and 90s the players choice was coke and it was a dynamic, high flying league. Now that they test for coke the league turned to pot literally as there is much less scoring and the league is less dynamic.

QUOTE (chw42 @ May 7, 2014 -> 02:27 PM) Except the advanced metrics also showed that Trout was a lot better than Philips... But again, we knew that already. It should be used more for comparing apples to apples such as Trout to Miggy. Then again, GMs will offer each a boatload of money.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ May 7, 2014 -> 02:26 PM) A baseball team must rely on the entire team to win. When evaluating talent at the individual level, it's counter-productive to rely on data with a whole bunch of dependent variables. Yes, my example is an extreme case, but I'm using it to highlight just how useless of a stat RBI and Runs can be in evaluating talent and predicting future performance. I understand, I just disagree that they are so much more accurate as it's the true number of runs scored and given up that creates a win or loss. Again, I'm not saying it isn't useful. It's just that I think they are abused and used to try to make poor comparisons like Bernstein did.

QUOTE (CyAcosta41 @ May 7, 2014 -> 02:16 PM) For my money, Dan Bernstein (AND Terry Boers) are Exhibits A and B proving that human beings can have such different tastes. When I'm in my car and I accidentally switch to the Score during their show, I trash what's left of my rotator cuff attempting to change the station (to ANY station) before another word assaults my ears. Count me in with those who think they're horrible. The premise of their show (as best as I can tell) is that it offers a unique combination of sports acumen, entertainment, and humor. I don't see any of those things. Not a one; not at all. Then, go one step more and witness the smarmy and often offensive way they abuse their loyal minions and the occasional jamoke who calls in without being in on the joke ... and wwww. I need a shower. It's like walking into a circus freak show. Clearly they've survived because somehow (albeit inexplicably to me) they bring-in the numbers. As I said, we all have different tastes. My dislike for this gruesome twosome is pretty intense. I've gone so far as to boycott their advertisers just because I feel better knowing I'm not feeding the beast. The worst part is, Dan used to be fun. When he was starting out at the score (small s) he had a Saturday morning slot. He had a skit where he tried to build sports teams from the old Saturday morning cartoons. The kangaroo from the Sylvester and tweety show was the kicker. The grown up Bam-Bam was the tight end etc. He actually has a good sense of humor but now he just wants to put everyone down and proclaim his superiority and it got old quick.

QUOTE (chw42 @ May 7, 2014 -> 02:03 PM) The only problem is that Trout was better by a lot and it's not even close. Correct. But we knew that by watching each of the players, so the numbers really didn't help either way.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ May 7, 2014 -> 02:09 PM) How much run production an individual player is accountable for isn't that straight forward--that's why you need more complex understanding. Relying on RBIs or Runs is going to lead to all sorts of silly conclusions about how two different players compare with each other. An individual batter can't force the guys ahead of him or the guys behind him to get on base or get a hit, so it makes no sense to use metrics that heavily rely on things outside of the individual player's control. If I hit a triple every single time I'm at bat but there's never anybody on ahead of me and everyone strikes out behind me, I'm going to have 0 RBIs and 0 runs. If you're a GM looking to evaluate signing me to a contract extension for the next year, you'd be making a horrible decision by relying on either of those two stats. True as I stated earlier. However, this is the way the game is played. You MUST rely on other players in the lineup. Even the stats can't isolate everything. Your example is an extreme case that will not happen in a game. The more likely is that some of the players will strikeout and sometimes there will be people on base ahead of you. You cannot predict this or isolate it with any of the stats. So both of them have some predictive factor. So the advanced stats really didn't tell me much different. In the example someone used earlier where Phillips looked better than Trout, a GM would be stupid to offer Phillips more than Trout. However we knew that before the numbers anyway.

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ May 7, 2014 -> 02:06 PM) Best player on my DIII college team was our ace pitcher who could throw 85 and had a nasty breaking ball, pretty damn good for DIII. He used to smoke a huge bowl before every start he made and he was lights out. Weed really doesn't harm your body like cocaine or even amps. No, not in the short term. But players used to do this with ibuprofen to feel better during games and discovered that they got kidney problems later in life. Pot as stated before with regular use will cause cardiac problems later in life.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ May 7, 2014 -> 01:34 PM) "Producing runs" is a hugely complex thing which a lot of these stats try to tease out, and crude metrics like RBI or runs don't really tell that accurate of a story. Being on base (put another way, not making an out) is a huge component of effectively producing runs. You're right that more advanced metrics were originally crafted by fans, but they were picked up by agents and then used by GMs because they give better and/or additional information. GMs wouldn't care a bit about some fancy nerd math numbers that Boras is using unless the GM (and his staff) felt that they were actually valuable. It'd be more accurate to say that they gained wider acceptance in baseball management because they allow teams to better understand the players and the game. It doesn't need to be that complex. How many did the player account for. Why use other stats to predict it. Of course things like being on base will influence it but it's not as important as actually doing it. Instead of looking at how factors over 5 years predict it, look at 5 years of actually doing it. I'm not saying that the advanced stats shouldn't be used. I use them and watch them all the time. I was one of the first to promote them. I just think it's gone so far and using them like Bernstein did is an abuse of them to make a point.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 7, 2014 -> 01:05 PM) Linear weights-based stats exist for the purpose of trying to compare players with a common denominator. For example, Brandon Phillips had 103 RBI in 2013. Mike Trout had 97. Does that make them the same class of hitter? If not, then how can we tell who is better and, by extension, likely to produce more in the future? Well, Brandon Phillips had a wRC+ of 91 that year, and Trout had an insano-pants 176. So there you go. Anyway, that's the purpose. Obviously things like RBI are critical when the game is being played, it's how you win, after all. I'd never want a coach to tell a player not to worry about driving in runs, for example. They just aren't good for evaluating ability. Or, better put, there are many other numbers that serve as much, much better proxies for evaluating ability than RBI and other context-based metrics. This is true. However a few points. I'm not sure that saying someone who was better this year will be better next year. You will need a pattern of 5 years or so to determine this and I bet I could look at the "basic" stats and tell this as well. Even with those numbers did you really think that Phillips was better than Trout. I don't need any numbers to tell me that. Also if you use the runs scored +RBI -HR formula Trout winds up with 179 and Phillips 165, so even that shows Trout had a better year. Also, in the dawning age of non- (or decreased) PED usage, not all players will be able to put up great numbers across the board. So I think players will need to be separated out. It's kind of like comparing a WR to an RB in football. Players are going to sort themselves into the OBP specialists and others in the SLG groups and there will only be the select few that can do both and this will be obvious.

QUOTE (StrangeSox @ May 7, 2014 -> 01:06 PM) Because evaluating a team as a whole and a player as an individual are two very different things? Just like in any other field of research, you want to limit your variables as much as possible. It came about so smart GMs could better evaluate talent. It is two very different things. You do want to limit variables. However, certain variables are more important than other and should be factored in. Variables like the aforementioned weighted on base. I'm not too concerned with Abreu or Rizzo being on base. I'm more concerned about them producing runs. Am I looking for them to walk or hit with a man on second? If no one is on base, do they swing for the HR or try to take the walk. This is where some of the stats are more important than others. It did not come about so GMs could make better decisions. The first group to use them were fans, back in the 80's when James was using a one page news letter. Then the agents like Boras picked it up to drive the price of the players up because he showed how important an isolated player was without the context of other players.

QUOTE (MEANS @ May 7, 2014 -> 12:02 PM) keep grasping.... That could have caused the flexor strain as well......wait wrong forum.

QUOTE (chw42 @ May 7, 2014 -> 12:32 PM) Runs scored also has to do with how the the hitters behind you hit. It's pretty clear that things like RBI and Runs scored rely on factors one individual player just can't control. Correct. However, that is the game of baseball. You cannot control everything to win the game. So why make up a stat that doesn't use it. It came about so agents can get more money for their client because "he did what he could control" nothing else really matters.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ May 7, 2014 -> 10:59 AM) I don't think he was ever in the teams plans beyond Eaton's return. I think they want him as the platoon with DeAza when Eaton returns.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ May 7, 2014 -> 10:54 AM) This is pretty good. Some will hate it because they hate Bernstein. Some will hate it because they hate Dunn. As a Dunn fan, here it is. http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2014/05/07/ber...bscuring-truth/ This article is one of the primary problems I have with "advanced" stats. Both of these players are being paid to produce runs. You can determine the probable value of this all you want but Abreu has scored 22 and driven in 35 for 57 runs minus the HR as you don't want to count the run twice for a total of 45. Rizzo has 19 scored and 16 driven in for 35 minus the 6 HR for a total of 29. There is always the comment of RBI being useless because it depends on the teammates getting on base for the opportunity. In that case the percentage of runs driven in by opportunity works. Don't flame me because I know many of you like the +RC stat and all but when it comes down to it, I think it is all about producing runs from these guys and I really don't care what his weighted on base percentage is. It's great to debate and discuss but it's not as relevant.

QUOTE (CyAcosta41 @ May 7, 2014 -> 10:10 AM) Really? With absolutely no intention of offending anyone, I've always believed that the VAST majority of hardcore fans, including all those who have played at the high school level and beyond, prefer everything that goes with the chess-match aspect of baseball over cro-magnon "piñata ball." And that's despite the media's interest in glorifying the shameful McGwire-Sosa-Bonds "chicks dig the long-ball era." The big bombs are an amazing part of the game. I enjoy the occasional slugfest too (as long as my guys win). But, baseball is so much bigger and richer than just that. You're not exactly the only two left. I hope you're right. It just seems that the vast majority of the people I talk to enjoy the 10-9 more than the 2-1.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ May 7, 2014 -> 10:34 AM) Sierra has no options though. He'd have to go through waivers. Also, they already have DeAza and Eaton for LH. I think they will want to see if Sierra can stay as a RH outfield backup or platoon with DeAza.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ May 7, 2014 -> 10:24 AM) If that were the case you'd see a league-wide decline. So many of those guys get high. It doesn't necessarily increase the number although it's anti-inflammatory effect will mask injuries, however it will cause the healing time to be longer.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 7, 2014 -> 09:05 AM) Personally, based on how he has been treated, between the unnecessary shift to the bullpen in 2011, the bouncing between the bullpen and rotation in 2012, and the ongoing pitch count issue that comes up here all the time, I think it's very questionable whether the Sox actually are conservative in how they treat him. You can make a case either way; they have shut him down a couple times at the first sign of an issue (good) but they push him very hard in several ways otherwise. True. The switching to the bullpen I would deem as conservative if you think mechanics and pitch count are the issue. Being in the bullpen decreases the number of pitches thus chances that the mechanics become an issue. However, I think it would increase the "stressful" pitches as he threw harder more frequently.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ May 7, 2014 -> 08:43 AM) And I think based on nearly 20 pitchers in MLB already going out for Tommy John surgery this year alone, if you choose to believe that somehow Chris Sale is a greater risk than any other pitcher, you need to make a much stronger case than "I think his mechanics look weird". Pitchers are going down left and right in this league. Based on the number of pitchers going down for that surgery already this year, an equally plausible answer seems to be "your baseball team should not employ pitchers". Also, does the fact that Sale has not had a surgery while many pitcher have in the past few years, attest to him only having a tendency towards minor injuries or that the Sox are more conservative in the care of him.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ May 7, 2014 -> 08:17 AM) Have they all been elbow issues? I thought at least one was forearm, not elbow Pretty much the same thing as the forearm muscles originate at the elbow. They are the same muscles, it just depends on where the feel the pain.

QUOTE (flavum @ May 6, 2014 -> 07:51 PM) Oh, are they playing tonight? It's a rumor I heard somewhere.

QUOTE (flavum @ May 6, 2014 -> 07:46 PM) That was fast. They want to watch a meaningful game......the Hawks.

QUOTE (balfanman @ May 6, 2014 -> 10:10 AM) Lol!; No, I've just always valued defense and pitching over offense. I much prefer a pitchers dual over a 10 - 9 game. I loved last nights game for the most part, even though I only got to see the last half of it. My favorite part of baseball is observing how the pitcher and catcher are working together and how the defense is playing certain hitters. Wow. We may be the only two left that think this way.

QUOTE (greg775 @ May 6, 2014 -> 03:51 PM) With Sale's mechanics, how in the hell would anybody sign him to one of those astronomical contracts? Let's face it, none of this is good news. Not blaming anybody, just saying Sale is not somebody I'm counting on to be a reliable member of the rotation for long. He is one of these guys that in the 1950s would have been run out of baseball in the minors due to injuries vefore he even got to the majors. He looks to be a guy who they will need to rest and skip a few starts every year. However with his talent he is worth it. It's more important to have him ready at the end of the year in years that they are ,in contention