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Let's take a look at the injury history of these pitchers. Sale and deGrom with missed very significant time with injuries. Currently strider has pitched poorly this year and is out with an elbow injury. So if we look at the history of these pitchers who accomplished these feats, they are uncorn in talent but pretty much guaranteed to have injury riddled careers. Do you want to give these pitchers 6 year deals?

But only for half year. There is no denying he is having success. The question is can he continue to do it. That is the risk. This is what GMs need to decide if giving up significant capital is worth it to acquire.

We aren't talking some missed time. It is significant time/surgery. There is definitely an increased probability. As I said 81% of the time they will have another significant injury. Crochet has already proven it correct when he had to be shutdown with a shoulder injury then had to miss an entire year with a UCL reconstruction. These were not "everybody misses time" injuries. Go ahead and take the chance. The risk profile, onjry history, volume usage says you're wrong. Again, nothing is 100%. The body just doesn't work that way. As you said some pitchers can handle it, others can't. I agree. However Crochet's profile and his usage this year really elevates that risk. Paying him for 6 years is a massive risk. Might work out, might not. Nothing is guaranteed but it's a massive risk despite his half season of durability and success.

People don't know he's a unicorn. He's shown half a season of injury free success. If he stays injury free until the end if next season, I'll give it to you. The telltale sign is if this season doesn't cause issues next season.

If you are looking for something that predicts 100% it will always happen, you will never find it in relation to the human body. It is just too variable. However, you are wrong that one opinon is just as good as the next. Research has shown that a previous injury predict around 81% of the time another injury will occur. With Crochet, he had a shoulder injury followed up by a UCL. The prediction was 100% accurate. Research as also shown that as a pitcher increases the volume the likelihood of injury also increases. Is it 100%? No, buts it's a significant risk. Does smoking cause cancer 100% of the time? No, but is a significant risk. Now you can guess all you want but the daya shows the risk/likelihood. If you were going to sink 10s of miilions of dollars into an a pitcher that has this history and has had the wear this year that has never been done before? As I said previously, you may be right but you are taking an awful major risk.

It sucks but I would too.

I agree. Which is another reason why they should make every effort to trade him. No one knows how teams will view his value based on all of these factors. Do the Sox trade him for what they think is 75% of his value due to the other team's concerns? You know the other teams will try to talk Getz down.

The advantage the Sox have here is that don't really need to worry about the rest of his career. Go ahead and pitch him again, he probably only has one or two left here. The real interesting thing will be is what happens if they don't trade him. He'll be an interesting medical case for the rest of the year. You can bet the medical staff is closely documenting everything and in a couple of years there will be a case study published that start with "A male baseball pitcher 25 years old had UCL .......

I thought people ruled out Seattle as they weren't going to give up their position player prospects they have as they need more hitting.

I think that's a fair trade.

Half a season of durability does not a career make. He is currently in uncharted waters. I would not take the chance with a pitcher of his talent. You may be right but it's taking a massive risk for his career going forward.

This will be a significant issues from everyone's posts. They don't like the fit with NY, LA, StL or Seattle. We know Baltimore won't trade their top pieces. So who are the trading partners?

Any other pitcher who has only pitched 50 innings in any one season. Can someone who has only run a 5K race suddenly start running 100 mile ultra marathons? Sure, but do you think that cumulative trauma has a good chance to catch up to them? Do you want to take that chance with the talent of someone like Crochet?

I think there is from fatigue and overuse due to his lack of previous workload. There may not be from game to game but here is from cumulative use.

Sure there is. Did you listen to the podcast, I posted? We do know that the volume of pitching increases the likelihood of injury. Not just the number of innings but the number of innings combined with the intensity. Today's pitchers throw max velocity far too much. This is where the likelihood of injury increases. So one if 2 things has to decrease, either intensity or the mount of work. They don't want to decrease velocity, they want to increase it. So the question is what constitutes the amount of work, innings, number of pitches, number of bullpen sessions? These are the questions that remain.

There's a difference between limiting the innings of healthy, conditioned pitchers and someone who has never pitched more than 50 innings in any one season and is coming off UCL reconstruction. In general, i agree with you but Crochet is not the typical case.

I think it had much more to do with the UCL reconstruction rehab. Taking to time to really do that strengthening and conditioning helps.

I guess this year in a bad draft everyone had to pay up if you wanted the few good, quality players.

That's common. Believe it or not that's actually a clinical test we use called a lift off test. Gives a a good clue as to the part of the cuff that's involved.

Yes they do, depending on the etiology they can be really debilitating.

All of this is a "could be" 1. Injury history 2. Only half year as a starter. This will make GMs hesitate. Rightfully so.

The more money they need to hand the pitchers before they even pitch , the more conservative the clubs are going to be to protect the investment. Coming out of high school, it just depends on what their workload was. Someone like Schultz will be built up ti starters innings by the time he reaches the MLB. Lesser talents will spend more time in the minors and have plenty of time to build up the innings.

Just don't say it 3 times.

Then that would need to apply to all companies for tax breaks as that is a common lure for them. That would really prevent businesses from coming here and make more leave.

Me as well, for better or worse.