I think its impossible to answer right now. We have to wait and see what happens. If mcdougal pitches 4 injury free years for us and Lumsden is nothing more than a 4th man, than we get the better half, but if mcdougal is hurt all the time and Lumsden becomes a 18 game winner than they get the better of it.
This is actually a great question for like three years from now.
But i trust KW, he has yet to trade away a great pitcher.