Dam8610

Horrible trade. This rebuild was not supposed to be about a one off title. It was supposed to be about sustainable success and competing for (and hopefully winning) several championships. If Dunning turns into Bieber for Texas, the Sox don't have that cost controlled asset to fill out their rotation in 2022-2026. We all like Kopech, Cease, Crochet, et al, and want them to succeed, but they could all flame out, leaving 2 rotation spots to fill in 2022 and 3 to fill in 2023. Dunning would've left one less spot to fill in both years, and signing Bauer would've put it at 1 spot to fill in 2023. This trade actually creates more uncertainty in the competitive window to try to win in 2021. That's why I hate it.

Nice goalpost shift, but as a counterargument, I don't give a shit about Jerry's pocketbook, and I DO give a shit about winning after 2021, therefore Bauer and Dunning is the more sound strategy from my perspective, ignoring the fact that Steamer projects Lynn for 3.2 WAR and Bauer for 3.8 WAR. That actually further proves my point about draft picks. Bieber likely will account for all of the 4th round WAR from his draft class, because 4th round picks hit at a worse rate than 2nd round picks. Finding a MLB talent in the 2nd or 4th round is like finding a needle in a haystack. A 50 FV prospect in AAA producing 15 WAR is much less rare.

Also by the way, Bieber is a 45 FV on FanGraphs as well as of his last prospect grade. Guess he'll never amount to anything, too, right?

Okay, we got it, you don't like Dunning and think he's going to flame out. You could just say that instead of trying to twist and contort statistical analysis to try to make a point on which it does not agree with you, because the numbers as they look right now say you're wrong.

Why are you going off of their last projection of him as a prospect when he's been in MLB and the data has changed since then? They have very conservative estimates for WAR for 55 FV prospects because a 55 FV prospect can be in rookie ball or AAA. Many 55 FV prospects in rookie ball never make MLB. Dunning got knocked to a 45 automatically because they ding pitchers half a grade for a TJ surgery, you'll note in the article you cited he was a 50 FV prospect. Meanwhile, the same website you're citing to try to prove me wrong has a projection system, Steamer, that is incredibly conservative and dings projections heavily for lack of MLB experience. Steamer projects 2021 Dunning for 2.4 WAR. Six years of approximately that production is about 15 WAR, aka the low end of what I've been saying. So FanGraphs actually thinks I'm right. Check the projection if you don't believe me: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/dane-dunning/19409/stats?position=P

A link without any explanation. Are you trying to show that 2 years ago, FanGraphs thought Dunning was worth $18 million? Because things have happened in the intervening two years.

Dunning being worth 15-25 WAR over the next 6 seasons is way more likely than Thompson being worth 1.

That's value creation. That doesn't change the value of a 2nd round pick. The average 2nd rounder still never reaches MLB.

I disagree with this premise. So do a lot of others here. If you believe your stated premise and don't wish to discuss it further, take your own advice and move the fuck on.

That's more accurate, because Thompson is a lottery ticket who's way more likely than not at this point to flame out and never reach MLB, which is why the average WAR of a 2nd round pick is less than 5.

The average 2nd rounder is not even close to Jared Kelley and to pretend that's the case is incredibly disingenuous. Jared Kelley was a Top 15 talent who made it to the Sox 2nd round pick likely because they promised him Top 15 money and no one else would give it to him. The Sox aren't going to do that every draft and the opportunity doesn't exist in most drafts.

The give up is a 2nd round pick for the White Sox. I don't know or care what the Reds get.

That's fair, but there's no comparison between the value of an average 2nd round pick and current Dane Dunning.

+20 vs -10 seems like a no brainer.

It will be over 30 picks behind #29, and getting a Dane Dunning out of a pick at the end of Round 1 is incredibly rare. Yes, there's a draft pick that's lost. The average WAR of that draft pick is probably 2. Let's round up and call it 5, which is a huge roundup, by the way. Losing 5 WAR to get 20-25 makes a lot of sense. Losing 15 WAR to get 5 does not, and that's assuming Lynn gives you a 5 WAR season.

"If you take a whole bunch of relevant information out, you can easily argue Lance Lynn is better than Trevor Bauer." No kidding, I was pointing out that you were leaving out relevant information. Bauer is 5.3 WAR/162 over the last 3 years, entering his age 30 season, and only costs money. Lynn is 4.6 WAR/162 over the last 3 years, entering his age 34 season, and cost 6 years of Dunning, who reasonably could produce 15-25 WAR over that timeframe. It's Bauer in a no contest when discussing which pitcher would be better for the team both in 2021 and long term.

Keep the dream alive, as long as you realize it's only a dream.

Bieber has insane walk suppression, that's the biggest trait that makes him outstanding. Dunning, while close at times, was never quite that good at it. That said, 80% of Bieber on a league minimum contract for the next 3 years is more valuable than Lance Lynn. That's a high end outcome for Dunning, but the Sox are now betting on a high end outcome for a 34 year old.

Now do 2018.

Why would they need a bona fide ace and Cy Young winner entering his age 30 season for the next 5-6 seasons that they could have for just money? They just paid 6 years of a 2-4 starter for 1 year of an "ace" who really had 1 good season and is entering his age 34 season. Isn't that enough for you?

Lynn was the move to give them cover for not getting Bauer, but that's likely to blow up in their faces.

How the phrases "Top 100 Prospect" and "4/5 Starter Ceiling" get thrown around to describe the same player I'll never know or understand.

Classic White Sox. Laugh to prevent the anger/sadness moment.

So 1-4 with a HR and 3 Ks? Thought this board was tiring of TTO hitters.

Well the front office is certainly helping with that by giving up cost controlled assets for rentals. Whether we want to believe in that "fairy tale" or not, the front office is making the potential for it to be a reality into an impossibility. This alone won't do it, but more moves like it certainly would.