Dam8610

That creates an unfair weight against the 2020 season and STILL comes out at a 4.9 WAR average. So basically, even weighting all the factors one possibly can against Bauer (because none of this analysis gives Bauer the 18-20% premium he should get on his 2018 rate stats for the time he missed in 2018), he still comes out as basically a ~5 WAR pitcher. Are you done arguing that he's an "overpaid #3 starter" yet? Because Fangraphs says 5 WAR is what playoff teams look for from their #1 starters.

I sure hope not. They should sign Bauer for just money (and a lost second round pick) and just win the ALC (certainly) and the AL (maybe) for the next 3 or so years.

You do realize doing that would provide the exact same result, right? Here, let's try it, just for fun: 5.8/162 = .0358 3.3/162 = .0204 2.5/60 = .0417 .0358 + .0204 + .0417 = .0978 * 162 = 15.9/3 = 5.3 WAR/162, as I may have stated previously.

Reading is fundamental. It specifically says WAR/162 to allow for the shorter 2020 season. I gave Bauer nothing, but rather converted to a pace stat, which I feel is the fairest way to compensate for the shortened 2020 season. He was on a near 7 WAR pace in both 2020 and 2018, but I also decided not to use his injury in 2018 to his favor in the calculation, because the idea is to get a fair measurement of his value.

Now go get Bauer.

I'm not going to feel bad for the Yankees not winning championships until the White Sox have at least one quarter of the amount of championships the Yankees have.

Is it possible that was 2018? I have a hard time believing he missed time in 2019 while making 33 starts and pitching 213 innings.

2018 was his age 27 season. Seeing a young, talented pitcher who flashes potential finally put it all together at that age is not uncommon at all. Not every pitcher can be Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez, Clayton Kershaw, or Chris Sale and just come up to MLB and immediately put all their tools together and become an elite pitcher. Sometimes it's a process that takes time. Even the super conservative Steamer has Bauer worth 11 WAR over the next 3 years (3.8 in 2021, 3.7 in 2022, 3.5 in 2023). Even if you then apply the standard Fangraphs aging curve to him (which is very much against his favor), that makes him 3 WAR in 2024 and 2.5 WAR in 2025, for a 5 year value of 16.5 WAR, which at $9 million/WAR (which I believe is the current going rate), would make Bauer worth a 5 year/$148.5 million contract. Bear in mind that all estimates used in the above analysis are extremely conservative, and I'd expect Bauer, barring injury, to be worth somewhere between 20-25 WAR on a 5 year contract. Rarely do you get an opportunity to get surplus value in a free agent contract. I wish the White Sox would take advantage of it.

So then please explain the 5.8 WAR full season 2018. I've noticed a lot of people on this board trying to discredit Bauer based on mostly a down 2019 where he only pitched like career average Lance Lynn, which for Bauer is a down year. But these people also seem to discredit his 2020 Cy Young winning performance because it was a short year and pretend like his near 6 WAR 2018 doesn't exist. It's not like Bauer pulled a Lance Lynn and suddenly became elite in one year, then started to show regression back to the mean in the following year. Quite the opposite, he showed dominance previously, had a "down year" where he was a borderline 2 starter, then won the Cy Young. The "it's not sustainable" argument doesn't hold up if he's kept a 5.3 WAR pace over nearly 500 innings. That's not a small sample size according to most here.

You have to multiply the 2.5 by 2.7 to reflect the 60 game 2020 season to get Bauer's 2020 WAR/162 of 6.8. 5.8 + 3.3 + 6.8 = 15.9/3 = 5.3. That said, even a 4 WAR starter is much better than an "overpaid #3 starter".

"Ace" is a very subjective term, but I think it would apply to the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner. If not, then I guess you'd have to tell me what you call a pitcher averaging 5.3 WAR/162 over the last 3 seasons. Fangraphs calls it a "Superstar" (their term for a 5-6 WAR player), but what do you call it?

Why? They did it with Lynn. Cheap and stupid tends to be this club's MO when not trading off incredibly valuable MLB assets (then they're cheap and smart).

Them getting Trienen back and adding Hand on top of what they already had seems unfair.

That's very popular with me, fwiw.

What? Assumptions have to be made in any statistical analysis. To say otherwise represents a lack of understanding of how mathematical modeling works.

That's the description of it, not the calculation. FIP aims to strip the factor of fielding from the pitcher's performance, and the biggest reason it's a relevant measurement is that overall it correlates better to future pitching performance than ERA does. If it did nothing but measure ERA, it would be useless and not calculated. That's also why there can be gaps between ERA and FIP.

But Joe Musgrove is not Lance Lynn. As we all know, bad starts only don't count when they're made by Lance Lynn, and good starts only don't count when they're made by Joe Musgrove. I'd love to argue against it, but this is just scientifically proven fact.

Just Giolito then, I suppose. I could see Kopech, Cease, and/or Crochet next offseason depending on how 2021 goes.

Giolito and Robert are the two most pressing currently I believe.

Well, now we know why there's been no movement on Bauer. That's insane. He's not getting the 1 year AAV on a 6 year deal.

Over 4 years, sure, but at least 3 of them were with a bad bullpen and defense. That sure seems like a mitigating factor.

His FIP was much closer to his ERA in his time with the Astros. His ERA was never half a run higher than his FIP in his time in Houston.

Having the worst strand rate in baseball seems like a pretty logical reason for your ERA to be a full run higher than your FIP. Cherry picking is picking arbitrary measurements that make no sense traditionally to make the numbers fit your narrative. Taking 32 consecutive starts over 2 seasons is cherry picking, because why ignore the rest of those seasons? The only real reason to do it is to make the numbers fit your narrative. When using statistical analysis, the numbers should drive your narrative rather than being forced to fit it. If Musgrove only costs a Dalquist or Thompson as a headliner, that should get done ASAP. It's not just about filling the 4 spot of the rotation. This is a pitcher who could definitely be a 3, and might even be able to be a 2 on a team with solid defense and bullpen, and thereby not potentially leave the rotation completely screwed after 2021, plus position the 2021 team even better for contention. A Q or Richards on a 1 year deal leaves the Sox scrambling to fill 2 rotation spots next offseason, and I don't think it's reasonable for us to trust that this front office will ever spend in free agency to fill the holes on the roster.

Well if you take out all his good starts, his numbers are atrocious. How could anyone ever justify acquiring a pitcher who occasionally has a bad game and pitches for a team with atrocious defense so his ERA is usually a half run or higher more than his FIP? That's preposterous, he has to be awful.