Dam8610

Jeff Bezos? At least he couldn't cry poor.

That's not weird, they need to tear their roster down.

3.3 and 2.7 is not 2. It's 3. Musgrove is a 3 WAR pitcher on average over the last 2 years. Also, "my confidence" in Dunning is a conservative Steamer projection, and that he has had some success both in the high minors and MLB. Those last two factors reduce the low end range of his outcomes significantly.

Your post said "And Steiver is nothing..." presenting it as though that was my take. The statement was hyperbolic and an inaccurate characterization of my argument. Stiever has a larger range of outcomes than Dunning, including a larger negative range. That doesn't make him "nothing", it makes him less likely to succeed than Dunning. As far as your thoughts on Musgrove, I'm not arguing against your cherry picked stats. He's been a 3 WAR pitcher the last 2 years so it's reasonable to expect that going forward.

You can't remove bad starts just because you don't like them. Lynn's fWAR was 1.5 last year, which works out to 4 with a 2.7 multiplier. If his last start was worth -0.7 WAR, I find that to be a pretty significant data point to consider. Honestly, I hope Lynn defies both the aging curve and career norms and is as good as you think he will be, I just personally don't want the White Sox to bet their 2021 season on it. Musgrove was a 3.3 fWAR pitcher in 2019 and a 2.7 fWAR pitcher in 2020 using the multiplier. That's a 3 WAR pitcher to me. Sorry you don't see it that way. Steamer projects Dunning at 2.4 WAR next year based on 149 IP. If that performance level holds over more IP, he will be worth more than that. If there is a higher performance level over 149 IP, he will be worth more than that. Yes, there are a lot of variables, but there's a decent chance (I'd say ~30%) Dunning could be worth 3 WAR next year. You really need to stop with the hyperbole. Steiver's range of outcomes is more volatile based on his body of work than Dunning's. He could end up a 5 WAR/yr pitcher or never see MLB again. That volatility makes Steiver less valuable. Again with the hyperbole. The numbers point to what I'm saying, accept it or don't, but that won't change.

Your entire timeframe on Lynn is heavily influenced by a highly unlikely to be repeated 2019 where he put up 6.8 WAR at age 32. Aside from that clear outlier, Lynn has basically been a mid 3 WAR pitcher his entire career. Even the 2020 you tout as being so great would only project out to 4 WAR, and you can't cherry pick out his last two starts because you don't like them, they're also events that happened. It's not a "gut feeling" I have that Lynn isn't going to be the 2019 version, the phenomenon I believe will take place is called "reversion to the mean", and the predictive stats see it coming as well. There is no measure that does not heavily weight his outlier 2019 by which Lance Lynn is a top 10 pitcher in baseball. Regarding Musgrove, you seem to be confusing the terms "more attractive acquisition" and "better player". I like Musgrove as an acquisition option because he's likely to be a 3 WAR pitcher over the next 3 years, which is something that would slot in very nicely in the 4 spot of the rotation and very very nicely in the 5 spot if 1 (in 2021) or 2 (in 2022 and 2023) of Kopech, Cease, and Crochet work out, because 3 WAR is essentially what a playoff team wants out of its 3 starter. If you're getting that type of production from your 5 starter, you're through the moon happy. Again you cherry picked stats to try to make Musgrove look bad, but the overall trend arrow on him is up, he's 28, and the Pirates have a history, especially recently, of squandering talented arms only to have them go on to fantastic success elsewhere. Regarding Steiver vs. Dunning, there's a point where prospect grades stop mattering and MLB performance starts mattering, otherwise Mookie Betts would be a below average hitter struggling to keep his job rather than a perennial MVP candidate on the best team in baseball, and Shane Bieber would be struggling to hold on to his #5 rotation spot instead of being the reigning AL Cy Young award winner. I don't care about prospect grades, Dunning had success at MLB, and looks like he'll be a 2-3 WAR pitcher if he pitches a full season in 2020. That's a solid 3 or 4 starter with room for growth. That's also why comparing Steiver to him is a bit unfair to Steiver, who is 23 and hasn't had success above A ball. I know for some reason that isn't a big deal, but there are a lot of pitchers with Steiver's resume or similar that never make it to MLB. His outcome range is too volatile to know he'll even pitch in MLB at this point. Comparing that to a pitcher who has already developed himself into a ML 3-4 starter, there's no real comparison. I don't care what prospect grades or rankings say. You keep missing my point on the Dunning v. Lynn thing, so I'll just state it this way: if the Rangers get 3/4 of the WAR from Dunning in 2021 that the White Sox get from Lynn, which is not an incredibly unlikely outcome, then the Sox got fleeced by the Rangers in that deal.

This is close to the value of the Sale deal, and Snell is not worth that IMO. It's not as topheavy, but Patiño is a Top 10 prospect according to Fangraphs and got a taste of MLB at 21 last year, Mejia is the type of player the Rays always turn around in these types of deals (see: Austin Meadows), Cole Wilcox has a way to go, but definitely has TOR potential, and Blake Hunt could develop into a useful player. Like I said, not as topheavy, but has the potential for more impact, and IMO Snell isn't worth that much. The Rays will end up massively winning this deal like they always do, which is why you don't trade with the Rays.

Mejia and Wilcox alone is an overpay. This almost makes the Lynn deal look sane. Not quite, but almost.

More hyperbole isn't going to fix the previous hyperbole, nor will attributing arguments to me that I didn't make, nor will insult humor. You talk about age in relation to Dunning and Steiver, while completely ignoring that Dunning has had both AA and MLB success while Steiver hasn't had any real success above A ball. The problem with your analysis is that you refuse to consider age and amount of control of Lynn and Musgrove while making a big stink about a 3 year age difference between a pitcher who has had success both in the high minors and MLB and a pitcher who hasn't had success above A ball, all while calling Steamer projections "[my] 2021 'vision' stats". No one said Musgrove is better than Lynn, though I wouldn't be surprised if Musgrove has a better 2021 than Lynn, nor would I be surprised if Lynn were better than Musgrove. The things that makes Musgrove a much more attractive acquisition than Lynn is 1) that he would likely only cost Steiver, who is a much more volatile asset than Dunning, to get, 2) once obtained, the Sox would have 3 years of control of Musgrove, and 3) at 28, Musgrove still has room for growth. Lower acquisition cost, more control, and growth potential are always attractive qualities in a potential acquisition, and all things Lynn lacked. Also, since you like hyperbole so much, feel free to look this up, but the basic difference that Steamer sees in 2021 Dunning and 2021 Lynn is IP totals. Dunning projects at 3/4 of the IP of Lynn and 3/4 of the WAR.

Lance Lynn was not a Top 10 pitcher in baseball in 2020 and will not be in 2021. A great deal of your argument here relies on hyperbole and an inability to distinguish between MiLB levels.

If the top piece of the deal is Stiever, I'd do it. Something like Steiver and Bryce Bush. People talked about having to trade from the prospect depth to get something of value when it was done for Lynn. While I still think that deal was stupid and the Sox vastly overpaid, this is the type of deal that needs to be made, dealing from actual prospect depth, not the ML roster, to get undervalued talent that is controllable for a decent period of time, rather than an aging vet with 1 year of control.

Hand/eye coordination can absolutely be taught.

Is he considered to be the better of the two between he and Colas?

6.8 WAR seasons have been achieved before by starting pitchers.

What makes that more logical, especially if you're already dinging him for his subpar Lance Lynn-like 2019? It's effectively double counting 21 below average (for Bauer) starts in an attempt to confirmation bias your way to a point. Bauer had 2.5 WAR in 11 starts over 60 games. I think it's more than fair to say that in a 162 game, 32 start season, he would've been above 5 WAR, especially when considering that extrapolation leads to 6.8 WAR.

That is overly optimistic and not what I was saying at all. It's less optimistic to think it could happen in any of 2022-2026, when the Rangers will have Dunning and the Sox may have nothing from this trade.

The only reason I can think of to nearly double the influence of a player's worst season in the last 3 is that you have an agenda to devalue that player. There's no other logical reason to do it. As I've stated many times on this and other threads, Dane Dunning projects by Steamer estimates to be worth 2.4 WAR in 2021. Steamer is very conservative in its projections, and this is with Steamer projecting 149 IP for Dunning. If he's able to increase his IP and maintain the performance level Steamer projects, he becomes a 3 WAR SP. If he can slightly improve his performance while also improving his IP, he becomes a 4 WAR SP. Given that he's entering his age 26 season, both of those outcomes are very attainable. Texas has 6 years of control on Dunning, so he could easily be worth 15-25 WAR for them. I wouldn't give up that kind of asset for a player with one year of control, but were I forced to, I'd want the player I was getting back to be a 5+ WAR player for that year. I don't see fan reactions as a good gauge of value, because part of that relies on how knowledgable the fan is and what they care about. I want the Sox to win in 2021, for example, but not at the cost of 2022-2025. That's why I'm critical of the move. Another fan who only cares about winning in 2021 might like the move, but it doesn't make my concern any less valid.

It seems unsustainable as evidenced by his 2020. The Sox paid a 5-7 WAR price for what is likely to be a 3 WAR pitcher, which has been my point all along.

We'll never know either way. The only thing we can do at this point is extrapolate to a full season. It's possible he could've gotten worse, and also possible he could've gotten better. Based on the fact that he had 2.5 WAR in 60 games and he had 5.8 WAR in 2018, I think it's fairly safe to say a full 2020 for Bauer would've been well over 5 WAR, giving him 2 5+ WAR seasons in the past 3 going into his age 30 season. Considering that the expectation at that point would be to just maintain performance level, which is a reasonable expectation for an age 30 season, it seems reasonable to see Bauer as much more likely to be a 5+ WAR pitcher in 2021 than Lynn, considering Lynn is 34 and has only had 1 season above 5 WAR, and even extrapolating out his 2020 would've only had 4 WAR.

He's old for a MLB player and definitely on the downward trending end of the aging spectrum. He's the type of player you expect to consistently lose value over the next several seasons. This is the biggest reason it was a bad trade.

Wow, the point I made so obvious and even stated in a later post still flew right over your head.

People need to start realizing that FV is not the end all be all and that prospects who have had success at AA or above are inherently more valuable than ones who haven't been above Rookie or A- ball. Further, FV goes completely out the window once a player reaches MLB. Dunning projects on Steamer, which is always conservative, to be a ~2.5 WAR pitcher next year. That's 55 on the FV system as I recall, and again not taking into account the level at which it's happening. Dunning would be a good headliner in this deal. Yes, it would take more pieces, but I believe it could get done, and if it couldn't, it's because some other team overpaid.

I wouldn't deal Kopech for him 1 for 1. That would only increase the MLB talent level for 2 months and the Sox would lose 2 years of control for it.

No, the Sox got Lynn because they panicked and sold low on Dunning. This organization needs to get better at valuing their talent and being patient and getting good deals. They did a great job of that with Quintana, getting the Cubs to panic and hand over Eloy and Cease. They could've kept Dunning and according to FanGraphs gotten the same caliber pitcher as Lynn for ~50 less innings. The market only demands a 60 FV prospect for Castillo if they can find one elsewhere. There's no need to give another team surplus talent just because they want it.

Once again, this has to do with age and recent performance. Bauer had a near 6 WAR season in 2018, 3.5 in 2019, and extrapolating 2020 to a full season, would've had 6.8 WAR. He's also going into his age 30 season. That suggests he'll be close to career best performance for at least the next 3 seasons. It's not a sure thing with Bauer, but I'd give him a much higher chance at it based on age and recent performance.