Dam8610

To me that would be a nonstarter.

It's 1 in 6, which I suppose is 5 to 1? But quibbling over 16.7% vs. 20% seems silly. Either way, it's pretty clear that's toward the top end of outcomes for him this year.

I'd take that bet as well, on the side you're saying you'd take, of course. 20% is reasonable as the chance that Lynn gets 5 WAR.

Dunning would've been a great piece to start a Castillo deal with. That would've been a far more worthwhile deal as well.

Would Clemens or Pettite fit better? Either way, the point is age is a relevant factor that RagahRagah doesn't seem to take into account.

That logic dictates they should go out and sign Nolan Ryan or Felix Hernandez.

I know, just thought it was funny to point out.

Not even Patrick Mahomes required a ten figure commitment. Granted, it was half of that, but not all the way to ten figures.

To call back to an old board meme... MBIAHOF!

If they have $50 million left to spend on 2021 payroll there's no excuse to not go get Bauer. They could sign Bauer and Hendriks and extend Giolito with that amount left to spend on annual payroll.

All predictive analysis has an element of subjectivity. It's impossible to truly predict one player's decline, but it is possible to apply trends from the 100+ year history of baseball, and more relevantly the last ~10 years of player data to predict the likelihood of a decline based on predictive factors. On what basis do you see these two pitchers as "relatively close"? I mean, I guess if you consider low end 2/high end 3 (Lynn) to be close to at worst high end 2 (Bauer), then that claim makes sense. I don't consider those two things to be close to one another.

You're right about it being a die roll. If your goal is "A 5+ WAR starter to pair with Giolito for a playoff run", getting Bauer is like needing a 3 or greater on a six sided die to succeed, while getting Lynn is like needing a 6 on a six sided die to succeed. Success is not assured either way, but one is far more likely than the other.

The Sox didn't pay for a 3 WAR starter. They paid for a 5-7 WAR starter they're unlikely to get. Meanwhile one who is likely to produce that is on the market and would not have cost Dane Dunning.

All of Lynn's rate stats declined in 2020 and were closer to his career norms, and combining that with him entering his age 34 season, makes his 2019 season seem anomalous. I don't "just look at WAR", but WAR is the quick and easy way to communicate value without much in the way of debate. Also, if you didn't notice the age, asset cost to acquire, and likelihood of production continuance portions of my argument previously, you're blind. It was never just about WAR, and you're the one using reductionist thinking to arrive at the conclusion that it was.

FanGraphs thinks he's worth 2.4 WAR in 2021. 2-4 WAR over the next 6 years seems reasonable barring injury given that, especially when considering the conservatism of their projection systems.

This is the sad reality of the situation. Jerry is too cheap to turn this organization into one like the Dodgers, even when he has the opportunity to do so. This is fantasy, but I like it. Also don't think it would take $35 million on a long term deal. $28 million probably gets it done. If you look for ways to devalue Bauer or put Lynn in the same tier, you can find them, I agree. But if you're honestly looking to evaluate likely outcomes, Bauer was a full WAR better than Lynn in 60 games last year (Bauer 2.5 vs. Lynn 1.5), and he's going into his age 30 season, meaning he's likely to have some of his best production going forward, and it is likely to align with the prime years of the competitive window the White Sox have worked so hard to build. Lynn is going into his age 34 season, had a very anomalous 2019 and came back down closer to his normal production in 2020. That doesn't seem like a pitcher who will give you 5-7 WAR in 2021 or after if he signs an extension. If you're comparing the two, and financial considerations aren't a major factor, Bauer is the player I'd take 10 of 10 times, even leaving out the idea of giving up a cost controlled asset like Dunning for Lynn.

And cause the average Sox fan to not want to watch baseball for the decade following 2023.

2 in the last 3, sandwiched by a typical Lance Lynn production season of 3.3 WAR. And Bauer doesn't cost 6 years of Dane Dunning, just money. Oh, and a second round pick that likely won't amount to anything, can't forget about that.

Other than his standout 6.8 WAR season, Lynn has generally been a 3-3.5 WAR pitcher when healthy, and that's not someone you want as your playoff #2. You could acknowledge that Lynn was on a 4 WAR pace last season, and that would be fair, but people on this thread have tried to pretend that Bauer's near 7 WAR 2020 pace doesn't exist or doesn't matter. You can't have it both ways, either Lynn's 2020 matters because 2020 matters or Bauer's 2020 doesn't matter because 2020 doesn't matter.

I think the Mets are going to regret paying him like a starter and viewing him as the solution to their problem at C.

Based on the hypothetical exercise, I guess I'd say fuck the bullpen because with the Lynn trade I need more long term committed starting pitching, so I sign Bauer at $27 million AAV. If they want a closer after that, they'll have to give me a bigger budget.

Yeah who would want a Cy Young award winner as part of their starting rotation? Those guys don't make an impact on a team at all.

I see all these hypotheticals about what the Sox can do with the money. Here's a hypothetical: what if the Sox talent and roster flexibility rivaled the Dodgers? I'm far more interested in that than in saving Jerry's pocketbook.

Bauer is an option if "The money will be spent" as they so famously claimed.

More than 2021 matters. There's a whole decade that we're hoping will be a competitive window. Ignoring that you find 2 less WAR to be just fine, there's 2022-2025 where you fill two rotation spots with good-great pitchers. Bauer is a 1 to pair with Giolito, then you get a 3 and 4 out of Dunning and Keuchel until he's gone, and suddenly the pressure is off Kopech and Cease to have to carry the rotation for at least two more years. Plus, there's a surplus of pitching talent in those years in case of injury or regression, and if none of that happens, there's flexibility in talent, where it matters, to go acquire a final piece for a title. Sure, they can sign pitchers for money next year, but will any of them be of the quality of Bauer? What the fuck is the point of financial flexibility now? You want so much talent you don't know what to do with it at this point. That's the flexibility that matters now, and that's the flexibility the Sox traded away.