Dam8610

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 22, 2017 -> 12:18 PM) So basically enjoy 4-5 seasons of Tim. That's about it for him. Hopefully we'll be WS good in years 3, 4, 5. I'd be surprised if he can't maintain his body and skill level into his early 30s, so I'd say more like 7-9 productive seasons.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 21, 2017 -> 02:07 PM) For how many years? Just curious as to how the WAR people look at longevity. Five great seasons in a Sox uniform then dump him? Or can he continue past 30 and excel as well? His value is probably going to be tied largely to athleticism, so as that goes, so likely will go his value.

If he can provide a league average bat to go along with the elite defense we saw last year, he can be a 4 WAR player going forward. He's taken massive strides toward being that player again over the 2nd half of the year, and next year is his age 25 season. If he can manage to improve his bat (ideally by improving his plate discipline) to anything above league average, he could become an elite player.

His September line is very encouraging, he even has the K rate down close to 25%. At that level, he's a borderline all-star, especially if the defense improves at all. If he can cut his K rate down to 20%, he'll likely be an MVP candidate.

As of today, the White Sox control their own destiny for the #1 overall pick.

QUOTE (soxfan49 @ Sep 20, 2017 -> 07:41 PM) Phillies up on LA in the 5th, 2-1. Now 5-4 bottom 7. Dodgers scored 3 in the top half to take the lead, Phillies have scored 3 in the bottom half so far to the it back.

QUOTE (Quin @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 09:51 PM) Beer drops hard a la Alec Hansen. Take Turang and Beer. Everyone wins. Sounds good to me, especially if Beer is the offensive Alec Hansen.

QUOTE (cjgalloway @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 01:19 PM) Rarely does anyone play 162. So let's just go with 150 because it's easy math and is definetely reasonable. He has hit 17 HR in 121 games.. That's 14% of games. If you multiply that by estimated games played he hits only 21... Avi is not a power hitter. You can't negate his poor month either.. Do we just negate his best month then? You include it all because bad stretches happen. I'm not "negat[ing] his poor month", I'm pointing out that he had an injury that likely affected his swing and his power numbers. 5 in April, 3 in May, 3 in June, 2 in July (both pre-ASB), 0 in August, 4 in September. The thumb injury occurred in mid-July. You may see that as coincidence, but I don't.

QUOTE (OmarComing25 @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 12:07 PM) Update on xStats numbers: .296/.346/.493 with a .337 BABIP I still don't think we'd get much for him in the offseason but if the right deal was there I'd absolutely pull the trigger. Extending him seems premature too though so I'd wait and see, even if he has another good year next year he still wouldn't be too expensive. If he puts up somewhere around the line above next year then you can think about extending him, though the number of years would be more more important IMO than the AAV. So an .840 OPS at a .337 BABIP? If his defense holds, that's a 3 fWAR player.

QUOTE (cjgalloway @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 08:05 AM) I can't stop but get confused why people this Avi is a power hitter.. Why do they? Because he is tall and bulky? The dude has 17 homers.. May not even crack 20 this year (he's 26) and people still think he could hit 30? He is what he is. A singles hitter. Let's stop assuming and hoping he's all of a sudden going to become some power hitter you need to backout the outfield for He's hit 17 HRs in 121 games, including a stretch from the all star break to September where he didn't hit a single HR (likely due to the hand injury he suffered having an effect on his power, as well as the missed time due to said hand injury and a separate knee injury). I think 25-30 HR potential is in that bat if he can be healthy for 162 games. He won't hit more than 15-20 in a season, though, If he can't keep himself healthy and in the lineup.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 15, 2017 -> 07:24 AM) Avi looks better this year no doubt, but he still has a .397 BABIP. That is the highest in baseball this year and a huge red flag. Let me put it this way, the highest career BABIP for any modern player with 3,000 PA's is Joey Votto with a .353. That's a 44 point differential between Avi and the best ever. I don't care if you believe he's finally "figured it out" this season, regression is most certainly coming, the only queation is how much. So what does that leave us with if the batting average starts to fall? Amongst 52 qualified OFs, Avi ranks 31st for ISO, 49th for BB%, & 25th for K%. What stands out there? Simply put, a bunch of singles are fueling his overall offensive line. And while his baserunning numbers have improved this year, his defense in RF is still below average. What happens if he gains weight and/or loses speed as he ages? Both his baserunning & defense would be negatively impacted and he could quickly become a mediocre player. I too want to believe that Avi is suddenly a 4 WAR player, but I have zero faith he can maintain this level of production long term and I think he's too risky of a player to commit big money to when we have a system filled with OF talent and enough money to sign a true impact free agent if need be. I think Hahn should trade him this offseason while his value should be at an all time high. The BABIP is still very concerning, but other than this year, he did put up a full season BABIP of .320 and a half season BABIP of .344 (also in 23 games in 2012 for the Tigers, he had a BABIP over .400). Let's assume he has "figured it out", meaning his K ratio will stay in the 20% range and BB ratio will float between 5-7%, as well as contact types staying similar. At a BABIP of .320, his line is something like .280/.330/.470, and at a BABIP of .344, his line is something like .300/.350/.500. So, if his BABIP gains are even somewhat sustainable, we're looking at a .800-.850 OPS OF with (according to Fangraphs anyway) a near league average glove. He could get to 4 WAR this year, but the above described player is a 2-3 WAR player moving forward. I think for the right deal, you move him, but I also think he's exactly the type of player that benefits from a rebuild and makes a team get back to contention quicker.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 14, 2017 -> 08:20 PM) Sure, but the time he would be in his expensive bust years would be the point where this team should be adding payroll. A $15 or $20 million a year anchor could really F things up. Such risk could be mitigated by a shorter term deal with mutual options. Something like: 2018: $25 million 2019: $10 million 2020: $10 million 2021: $15 million (mutual option w/$5 million team buyout) 2022: $15 million (mutual option w/$3 million team buyout) 2023: $15 million (mutual option w/$1 million team buyout) This guarantees 3/$50, the frontloading makes the contract less of an albatross if he busts, and if this isn't a mirage, the Sox have the potential to have a middle of the order bat on a 6/$90 deal.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Sep 14, 2017 -> 07:45 PM) How many top 50 position player prospects does it take to produce one guy, who ever puts up a year like the one Avi is having? Look, I love these young prospects and the whole rebuild, as much as anyone, but at some point, it seems like you have to appreciate the rare successes and try to hang on to them. Avi is a young guy, and has many years of his prime before him. I hope that they extend him and lock him up for the next 5 or 6 years, to take him through his prime. He and Abreu, who could ultimately move to DH, could comprise half of the middle of the order, for the upcoming window of contention, beginning in 2019. I want both of them on that roster. I hope that Moncada becomes a Tim Raines, Ricky Henderson type lead off guy. If you plug Jimenez into the middle of the order and add one big left handed bat, you have the run production needed to win a lot of games. Beyond the production, there are a also few intangibles that come with keeping guys like Jose and Avi. Jose is a terrific leader and club house guy. Both could provide some important veteran presence, on what will be a very young team. There is also something about the camaraderie of maintaining a core of guys, and not turning over the entire roster. It is also difficult to build fan loyalty to a revolving door of prospects. I just don't think that the success rate of prospects is high enough to trade away every prospect that works out, for the hope and "promise" of more and more prospects Uncertainty is why many want to trade Avi, and why it's a justifiable position to take. This could be a breakout, or it could be a flash in the pan. If it's the latter, it would look pretty foolish to pass on a good trade offer. That's why I think they should shop Avi, but they need to get the right deal for him, and if that can't be found, hold him and roll the dice. The way he's hitting right now, he's the new Magglio Ordoñez (with a worse K/BB ratio and a better glove) if he can sustain the pace.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 14, 2017 -> 08:37 AM) Cespedes signed his contract before the most recent CBA -- things are radically different now. All players under 25 that don't go through the draft are now subject to International Signing Bonus limitations AND those limitations are now hard caps instead of harsh penalties. Manfred has expressly said that anything that they consider to be "circumventing the spending limit" will be grounds for voiding the contract. Here's a question: What if some team did violate the rules to get him to sign, he plays in MLB for a year, then his contract is voided? He's already a member of the player's union at that point. Does the voided contract make him a free agent? If so, is he still subject to the same restrictive rules? Would anything prevent him from resigning with the team with which he'd just played a full season? Could a voided contract be Otani's way around the new restrictive rules, allowing him to get the best of all worlds (enter MLB at 23, get mega deal at 24)?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 12, 2017 -> 10:52 AM) Now that I think about it, one downside of any idea that we could have rebuilt in 16 and been ready this year is Cleveland. A far better built ballclub than we could have hoped to be, we'd have been in that wildcard pileup at best compared to them. We'd have been pounded by better royals team in 2015 or better Cleveland team in 16-18. Come back with the best team in baseball in 2020 and make this not a concern. Who do you have the White Sox signing: Harper, Machado, Arenado, or some combination thereof?

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Sep 7, 2017 -> 02:58 PM) Would you think he would be more likely to go to an AL team or NL team for those kind of at bats? An AL team could DH him on days he doesn't pitch. That would be the one scenario where a team like the White Sox could get him. Most teams will want him to pitch only, but if an AL team who isn't competing is willing to take a chance and offer him the DH spot on his pitching off days, that could be more attractive to him, and he may decide to choose that opportunity over better offers that require him to pitch only.

Suggesting this again: Ryan McMahon for Avi, who says no?

If Moncada, Jimenez, and Robert, and at least 5 of the pitchers reach their ceilings, this team is going to be a force to be reckoned with.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 1, 2017 -> 10:24 PM) Seriously, stop counting games back and watch the win column. We have won 1 game more than the Phillies, 1 game fewer than the Giants. That's where we really sit. For whoever worried about the Tigers a moment ago, they have won 6 more games than us. +10000000. You can lose more games, you can't win fewer.

f*** the Astros and the Tigers. I hope Verlander breaks down, I hope all the prospects they wouldn't trade for Q bust, and I hope all the prospects they sent to Detroit bust.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Sep 1, 2017 -> 05:56 PM) Barons face Allard and Soroka this evening. That sucks,lol. Hopefully Hansen is the TBD. Would make for very good pitching matchups.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Aug 28, 2017 -> 06:59 PM) Hard pass on all three. Harper and Machado will be in the same boat as Stanton once they get their contracts. Would rather use that money over the next five years or so to start locking up some of the young players long term. Would also leave money to fill multiple holes through free agency when the time comes. Machado will be 26 when he hits FA. A 10 year deal would pay for his age 26-35 seasons. That's unlikely to be a crippling deal. Harper is an even better candidate, but the numbers on him are going to be insane.

Jake Peter?

QUOTE (SonofaRoache @ Aug 31, 2017 -> 12:58 PM) Exactly. This is the point of the Minor Leagues. To work out your deficiencies prior to coming up, not sit there and play 2 or 3 years just to say you aren't being rushed. Collins is who he is and his line will look something like this in his best years. BA- .270 OBP- .360 HR's- 25 Tack a .200 ISO on to that and you take that from the C position 25 times out of 10.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 31, 2017 -> 09:57 AM) His problem is that he is trying to move into the most densely populated area for talent right now with the White Sox. Moncada, Anderson, Davidson, Delmonico Sanchez, Saladino, Leury, Hansen.... The question quite literally is where would he play? I'd probably give him PT over Saladino and Hanson at least.