chitownsportsfan

QUOTE(YASNY @ Jul 13, 2006 -> 02:34 AM) Typical. If a white person is a victim of discriminitory remarks, he's supposed to let it go. If it's a black or as we have recently seen, a homosexual, then the whole damn world wants to decapitate whoever said the remarks. It's about context YASNY. Sure, a black guy can say, "well that Bobby Jenks he's white trash". But that comment does not have roughly 800 years of slavery and oppression behind it. Bobby's in the historical elite race (and gender no less), no ignorant comment from a minority is going to change the hisorical and largery still intact socio and political stratification of the western world into white and "other". If Bobby comes out and calls a black man "a monkey" than that comment is a symbol of oppression. Not only a symbol, but a literal effect. It might not be fair, but when a historically oppressed group makes a prejudiced remark, it just doesn't carry the same weight as if an Anglo-Saxon made it. I'm fine with that.

QUOTE(The Critic @ Jul 13, 2006 -> 11:26 AM) Shingo was the highlight of 2004 for me as well. It's strange to consider that he was still the main closer into June of last year - it seems like so long ago now. It's always nice to see him on the Sox Pride DVD. I'll always be a fan of "good ol' number 10". I remember when the Sox game thread last fall turned into the "Can Shingo escape the bases loaded nobody out jam"--I can't remember who he was with, seems like a NL team. He got 2 outs then gave up a hit I believe. That was the last I heard of him. Too bad. Good memories though.

QUOTE(KevHead0881 @ Jul 12, 2006 -> 11:37 PM) So, we have an article that tries to find out who the real Bobby Jenks is; they actually talk to him as he refutes every unproven rumor out there on him; and they conclude it by saying they still don't know who he is. Why did they even bother talking to him if they were just going to shove everything he said under the rug? Well said my friend. It's filled with half-truths, half-heards, and rampant speculation. If I was Jenks, I would seek any avenue of legal recourse available. It's borderline slander, and I at least think an apology is in order.

Shingo was a reason to cheer in the otherwise injury riddled 2004. I'll always have fond memories of him and wish him well. He didn't even hurt the Sox in 2005. That said, he doesn't need to come back.

So, we got any Korean translators with us tonight?

Good AB from Fields here against a tough pitcher. nm, swings through a cockshot fastball

QUOTE(Jordan4life_2006 @ Jul 12, 2006 -> 07:13 PM) This has turned into a damn good thread. I've actually learned a few things. Good debating, people. Yea, this thread is an example of the best of soxtalk--it's been mostly civic and very informative.

62-12...that wouldn't be a record or anything... LOL, I needed a good chuckle.

QUOTE(Beltin @ Jul 12, 2006 -> 02:58 PM) What about the auto industry? Don't forget all the big healines they get coming out of Flint, MI as well. The US auto industry in MI is on life support. Go rent Roger and Me. Then think that it's only gotten worse in the past 15 years. Michigan has arguably the worst economy in the US right now, and it's mostly because it's lost tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs in the past 20 years.

Yea, but where would he play?

QUOTE(Heads22 @ Jul 12, 2006 -> 02:08 PM) They have next door. LOL, if that's the biggest upside of your city--that you have to cross the border to have fun--you've got a problem! That said,

It's Detroit, all they have is sports. Let them have their fun.

QUOTE(hammerhead johnson @ Jul 12, 2006 -> 01:50 PM) I'm not getting the OPS discussion either (didn't even bother to read it, actually), as it is not relevant when discussing leadoff hitters. How about we combine OBP and batting average, with .700 being the elite level (.300 AVG, .400 OBP). Ichiro is at .750 (.343 AVG, .404 OBP). I don't know, maybe it's a stupid idea, but it's better than OPS in this particular case. Good post and I agree with mostly everything. I do think OPS is relevant when discussing "leadoff" hitters. I believe the ideal leadoff hitter is Derek Jeter. He gets on base at a great clip, works the pitcher, hits for a fair amount of power, and runs the bases well--not necessarily a base stealer, but a very good baserunner with a fair amount of speed. I feel PODS fits the profile for a number 8 or 9 hitter very well. If he could play a league average CF, he would have great worth to this team. However, we all know he can barely play LF. Replace him next year.

QUOTE(Balta1701 @ Jul 12, 2006 -> 11:59 AM) I'd have beaten you by 20 minutes but I had to stop 1/2 way through writing to go take a sample out of a furnace I wouldn't even begin to know what that means. I can take a sample bite out of an apple, a furnace though?

Yep, great minds think alike. We must have been posting at the same time Balta.

Looks good to me Greg. I'm going to be eating some crow if the team wins 100 games when I predicted 94 before the season started. Oh well, it will taste good with the Sox in the playoffs.

QUOTE(iamshack @ Jul 12, 2006 -> 10:18 AM) I never claimed that I did not understand the "new stats." What I claimed is that the "new stats" are entirely inconclusive. Sure, OPS may be correlative to overall runs scored. However, that doesn't address several issues- it is entirely oversimplifying baseball by accepting the premise: "whichever offense scores the most runs overall is the best offense." Unfortunately, that simply is not true. There are no studies which show that a lineup laden with high-OPS hitters produce runs: 1)the most consistently; 2) most against elite pitching; 3) the most in "high stress" situations or environments (postseason); etc. Additionally, there is recent anecdotal evidence which shows that teams that rely simply on reaching base, play station-to-station baseball, and do not believe in "manufacturing runs" do not succeed in postseason baseball. The 04' Red Sox are probably the one example of one that has. In regards to Podsednik, as has been mentioned, no one is comparing him to Rickey Henderson. But there is no conclusive proof you can offer that shows that stacking your team with all OPS guys instead of any speed guys is optimal. Finally, for the people with access to updated advanced defensive metrics, could someone please look up Scottie's performance over the last 15 games or so (about the time Ozzie called him out about his defense). I would be willing to bet that his defense has improved markedly since about that time. There was actually a analysis done of the Sox offense last year that found although they scored less runs in 2005 than in 2004, they scored ~ 5 runs more consistantly, i.e. there was less dispersion in the offense. It was a pretty hot topic at the time in came out, I believe The Hard Ball Times (Studes) did the research and article. Of course there is merit to being able to "manufacture" a run, but if you play for 1 run, you're more likely to score only 1 run. I don't like giving away outs, especially early in the game. The Sox dominated the playoffs in 2005 because of pitching and an offense that suddenly caught fire by hitting home runs and getting on base. Anyways, I'm sick of arguing this point. I've spent too much time on it already and I'm ready to move on. I suggest you do some google searches for sabermetrics though, because it seems you've got a few ideas about it that are misguided.

QUOTE(CWSGuy406 @ Jul 12, 2006 -> 12:35 AM) LOL, he hasn't proven a damn thing. He's done the typical, "I don't understand any of these new-fangled stats" garbage that everyone always does (ie, "Don't think you can just throw out your latest Bill James p Again, chitown got it right a long time ago, and it pretty much went ignored. a.) Podsednik isn't a very good ballplayer. but b.) We don't have anybody else to replace him. and, on the bright side c.) He's not a total blackhole, as he's still getting on-base at a decent clip (.353 OBP -- better than last year), and he tends to see a lot of pitches. Again, this doesn't have anything to do with beyond 2006, but I don't mind Pods finishing out the year in LF. The reason, BTW, that this team hasn't been "optimal" yet (it's been great, but I think it can be better, which is a testemant to KW), is obviously 'cause "the greatest five man rotation in history" (ugh, Hawk) hasn't lived up to the billing... QUOTE(Greg Hibbard @ Jul 12, 2006 -> 12:20 AM) Iamshack, the point is that Podsednik isn't just bad at OPS, he's bad at almost everything, and the point of this thread was not to point out that he's JUST bad at OPS. He's terrible at OPS, RBI, HR, and even taking walks (an important stat for a leadoff hitter, wouldn't you agree) in comparison with OTHER LEADOFF hitters, which is even more pathetic. We're talking about other "set the table" guys who also happen to do things like stealing bases and scoring runs ALMOST as well as Pods, but are about 5-10 notches ahead of him in defense and in other offensive categories. Moreover, the things Podsednik DOES do well either aren't necessarily directly attributable to him (in the case of runs, which requires relying on the hitting of another player, as opposed to homers, rbis, and batting average which all are determined solely by the batter), or they aren't necessarily impactful on the game itself (in the case of steals, which AGAIN, unlike RBIs and HR don't impact the scoreboard immediately, if at all) Simply put, my point is that the s*** he does well doesn't matter that much, whereas the s*** he doesn't do well matters a whole lot more. Good post greg, I wish I could frame my answers so succinctly.

QUOTE(iamshack @ Jul 11, 2006 -> 11:20 PM) Your opinions and theories and stats-based approach are not invalid; but why can't you provide some more evidence that they actually coincide with winning games instead of simply overall run production? Once again, ask the Indians if it is that simple. I think the word you are looking for is "correlate". Dude, I'm trying hard to restrain myself, but your posts are rediculous. We can "quantify" how runs are scored. They are mostly scored when guys get on base and hit 3 run homers, not when singles hitters are stealing the occasional base and 25% of the time getting thrown out and making an out in the process. Don't ask Billy Beane or Bill James, ask Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Frank Thomas, or every other eagle-eyed slugger who's ever been celebrated because they produce runs by hitting the s*** out of the baseball and getting on base (not making outs) at an insane rate. Stolen Bases are a BIT part in run production, as in not very important. That has been proven not with statistics, but with EMPIRICAL evidence. There is a very strong correlation between runs scored, OBP, and HR's, much more so than with SB's. Go sort through a half century of box scores, calculate every team's OPS, and then see how many runs they scored. Than calculate how many SB's they had, then see how many runs the scored. Plot the data with stolen bases and OPS as the independent variable and runs as the dependent. Now look at the chart and see that runs scored is roughly linearly proportional to OPS but not to stolen bases. (If you don't get this part, go research basic stats, it won't take long I promise, like 30 min on wiki) hit the regression button on your graphing calculator if you want to get all pencil headed about it.

QUOTE(iamshack @ Jul 11, 2006 -> 11:09 PM) Umm, what is that big red thing? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1wB0jkWnK3E&search=meatwad

QUOTE(Rowand44 @ Jul 11, 2006 -> 11:09 PM) Well we've trotted Timo Perez out there before in place of Pods so lets see if that theory is true. Why are we isolating Pods from the rest of the team? Baseball is a team sport and you can't just take stats to prove how important some one might be to a team. Like I said, I just want to know our record with Pods starting and with out him starting the last two years. That is all. Fair enough. Anything to get meatwad up there some more!

QUOTE(iamshack @ Jul 11, 2006 -> 11:00 PM) According to whom is that a leadoff hitter's job? You? Why do sabre types believe that there is only one way to do things (theirs)? I happen to believe that it is a leadoff hitter's job to steal bases. I happen to believe that guys who run alot cause trouble for opposing pitchers and defenses. I posted some limited evidence of that (of course you pulled out the classic sample size argument). Once again, where has it ever been proven that this 75% figure is truly the line where stealing makes sense and where it doesn't? That's an arbitrary number that factors in nothing but a bs mathematical formula, but once again does not account for any of the distractions/effects caused by base stealers. As for your final comment, what I was alluding to is that the trouble Podsednik causes on the basepaths may contribute to Iguchi's success when he is on first base, not that simply any runner being on first base adds to Iguchi's success (thus the difference between Iguchi's OPS with no one on as opposed to a runner at first base, as well as the difference with a runner on second as opposed to no one on). QUOTE(Rowand44 @ Jul 11, 2006 -> 10:59 PM) One of you stat guys want to pull up our record with Pods starting and with out Pods the last two years. Just out of curiousity. What would that show about Podsednik in isolation? If the pitching staff is far and away the best staff in MLB, f***ing Timo Perez could trot out to LF and have a number of winning seasons.

I think we should be clear there are two different aruments here: 1) Pods' abilities 2) His value to the team and his future with the Sox. I think it would help if people are clear on what they are arguing. Of course they are related, but I think an argument can be made that PODS isn't a very good player, but he's valuable as the best leadoff hitter we currently have, regardless of his defensive worth. The Sox can win with PODS on this team despite his suckitude. His defense is bad, but LF defense is only worth so much. The players capable of replacing him in left are not better options. Mackowiak is more usefull in an utility role, Ozuna as well. Gload has no role on the team. Widge blows. PODS needs to continue his trend of getting OB and hitting with a bit of pop. He had an otherworldy (read: fluke) first half last year and than went back to mostly crap in the 2nd, although injuries could have played a role. But his career numbers suggest he just isn't that good of a hitter: Career OPS+ of 92 with a career OBP of .345. His career slugging is (puke) .385. Hell, this year, PODS is beating his career OPS by a full 8 points and it's a "lofty" .744. Remember, this is for a LF! Pods is 7th out of 10 among qualified LF in the AL in OPS. In MLB, he is 16th out of 20. ISO power, (Slg-BA) Pods is 2nd to last, only beating...the glorious Matt Murton. Point is, PODS is a terrible LF all around. He can't field a very easy position (relatively), and he can't hit either. He's a below average league hitter in the 2nd best offensive position in baseball. Corner OF is the place for sluggers, not slap hitters. He's the best option this year, next year, we need an upgrade in LF.

QUOTE(watchtower41 @ Jul 11, 2006 -> 06:05 PM) No, because like many have pointed out, Pods does NOTHING positive to help this team. I've made this case several times throughout this thread, but I guess because there is no stat for it, it doesnt count (at least at soxtalk) I've read every post of yours on this topic, and not one of them has been worth anything. Statistics is one of the ways used (some would say the most important, myself included) to measure a players worth. Observation clearly being the other major way. So if you don't want to use stats, at least try and use observations to defend Podsednik. Say he's a good baserunner, say he brings young hotties to the ballpark. Say something.

QUOTE(StrangeSox @ Jul 11, 2006 -> 12:32 PM) Apparently I'm not the only one who doesn't "get" The Dugout. Not even slightly funny. Red Stater? Do you like Jon Stewart? Do you drive a Volvo and eat sushi?