chitownsportsfan

Ha, just being a cubs fans means swimming in a pacific ocean of metaphorical piss every summer and fall--I wouldn't worry about it.

Here is another one: Detroit: At least it's not Baltimore.

Well he pretty much qualified the entire article by saying the Tigers are a much better bet for 4th than for 1st, and that any run will take lots of luck. But that is better than the Tigers have seen the past few years. He also said the AL Central is the toughest in baseball--high praise gentlemen! Please don't compare Perry to Mariotti, nobody, not even Dayn deserves that--well, maybe Woody Paige.

Perry is an idiot, but this mistake is really not significant. I'd be much more upset if he made up quotes like Mariotti or misused statistics like Phil Rogers.

Well, I believe he ignored all bunts in the study. He says he did anyway. I assume that means all bunts--successful or not--since he was using pbp data. Are you saying that the "stealers" have a better chance to reach 3rd because they are running on the play--or because they are just faster than average? I think it's a good start for a more in-depth look at how base stealers affect that game, but I wonder if more historical data was availabe, past the last few seasons. That would have greatly increased his sample size and made the study more reliable. Intuition tells us that a "stealer" will distrupt the pitcher, but his data suggests that walks actually go down with a stealer on base. I wonder if the pitchers are conciously deciding to "get ahead in the count", and "make 'em hit it" with a runner on. Likewise, I wonder if the batter simply becomes less patient with a runner on. I guess we won't know until pitched ball data becomes more available, then we can see if the pitchers are more aggressive or not. It's good to see the stat community exploring areas like this that give a bit of credit back to the speed and defense guys. I still a take a .380 OBP from our leadoff with 10 steals over a guy like PODS. I like PODS, but for a corner outfielder he really doesn't give much production beyond speed and average, two things not very important in run creation compared to OBP and OPS.

In a nutshell, 200 AB and this line: 276 .313 .330 .643 I don't mind that line nearly as much as Timo's though: 218 .266 .296 .562 179 AB Yuck, Yuck, Yuck.

JR for his money I can take, Ozzie for making me look like an "angel" on the course after a bad shot, and KW because the man is smooth. If "Stringer" Bell was a GM instead of a character on HBO, he would be KW.

The fact that Pablo Ozuna and Timo Perez won't have 400 combined AB's has to be worth at least 10 runs and two wins this year.

I think it just hit me how much Sox radio won't be the same without John. Man, this sucks.

Well said!

270 .329 .407 Who's numbers are those? Any guesses? The departed Arow's. So, who wants to bet me that BA puts up more than a .738 OPS? BA is likely an offensive upgrade over the Arow of 2005. I don't see the problem here. As for the Thome/Frank/Jurassic thing--don't some of you realize just how putrid the DH position was last year? As posted, Jurassic's splits just sucked. His homer numbers were inflated by playing in the Cell, and his OPS still sucked. No matter what happens injury wise with Frank and Thome, nobody can seriously argue that Thome does not represent less injury risk than Frank. But to simplify this down to risk is well, risky. Thome does two things Frank cannot: bats LH, and can play 1B. Both are important things to consider. I agree that trading Rowand for Thome to replace what was arguably already possesed (Frank Thomas), and then losing Frank, is a bit of a hard pill to swallow on the dawn of a world championship. However, Rowand is the definition of fungible in CF--a no hit good defense guy--MLB has plenty of those guys. Thome is a rare commodity: a LH who hits for a high OBP and slugging.

Darn! And I was going to try and use "sabermatrics" to prove why Jon's 2005 wasn't a fluke, but since you'll just discount it maybe I shouldnt... "sabermatrics" tell a few things about Jon: 1) He has an excellent F/G ratio--a must for pitching half your starts at the Cell 2) His walk rate dramatically improved in 2005. "sabermatrics" also tells that the Sox have perhaps the best team defense in MLB. So, call it "confidence" or "finding himself", the thing is that if Garland can keep his control problems in line, (as many have mentioned) he is an excellent candidate to not be a "fluke". The fact that KW and the Sox' "sabermatric" inclined FO decided he was a better long-term bet than Contreras speaks volumes.

I grew up watching Frank Thomas mash balls. Nothing will ever take those memories away. My pre-swing routine all through HS and College varied between his shoulder tap and the Robin Ventura throw the bat out low. So it pains me to see him so upset. Frankly though, I don't give a damn if he feels he was mistreated. Frank has always been a selfish guy, but it didn't matter when he was putting up little league numbers in his prime. Now that he's mostly washed up (hurts to say it), I think he needs to realize his comments won't stand. He wanted to be activated for the playoff roster? You've got to be kidding me! What, a guy with no swings since July, who is still wearing a boot...ugh

Cotts never had much success starting, whereas BMAC has a proven minor league track record and at least one brief season of mostly quality starting pitching. Cotts also doesn't have the assortment of major league pitches that BMAC has, which is another reason I think the Sox put Cotts in the bullpen. I wouldn't worry about BMAC being a permantent member of the Sox Pen. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cotts given a chance to start in 2007.

Oh snap! Goes the Milkman.

I think Cotts has the stranglehold on setup coming into ST, but anything can happen. I'd be shocked though if he sees any action other than the long guy out of the pen once the season starts. Although things could change quickly during the season, if Dustin and Pollitte fail or get injured.

My suggestion would be to change the call in you sig from Joe Buck to John Rooney. Welcome aboard!

Value over replacement player. Basically a stat adjusted for league and park (but not position) that measures a player's worth relative to a "replacement player", which is basically just a AAA+ player. A pretty cool stat I think.

Bottom 5 AL Left Fielders, by Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) Player Team EqA Projected VORP VORP Timo Perez CHA .197 0.2 -9.4 Eric Byrnes BAL .200 22.0 -9.2 Tony Womack NYA .218 5.6 -8.9 Charles Thomas OAK .107 6.3 -6.6 Mike Ryan MIN .215 3.7 -4.3 Thanks to the guys over at BP. Good job Timo!

I really think that Jay Mariotti does the best job. He isn't afraid to go against public opinion and really proves that what is popular isn't always right.

Yes, MLB baseball offseason "grades" should be based on a curve, as every move is relative in MLB. Any player the Sox sign negatively or posively affects every other team in the league. Classroom grades are an entirely different matter, one in which a "curve" is not necessary.

Ah, yes, good work, where did you find those stats? Very limited sample size, but seems like he doesn't hit as well on 3-1 as I assumed. Huh. I wonder what his career averages are?

Yea, Uribe is a freaking god on 3-1. I wish I knew the stats when he is ahead in the count--but he crushes fastballs in the zone.

Cool, I agree, it ain't broke, and putting Urbie in the two hole might just ruin his confidence so that he's useless all year. I want to move Gooch down, I really do, but who is going to hit second? Dye? That is about the only name I can think of other than Gooch who I wouldn't mind hitting second. And I probably would mind Dye hitting second, especially if Gooch was 5th...It just doesn't make sense to change it.

Best in the league offense? You have to be kidding me. The Yankees will have the best offense in the league, no questions asked. Their pitching sucks, but the offense will be amazing. Greasywheels, are you referring to the position of Gooch in the 2 hole and Uribe in the 9, or the offense in general? Because the offense in general was broke for most of 2005. Under league average in OBP, OPS, and runs. I agree though that there is really no good reason to move Gooch out of the two hole for Uribe. Uribe is free swinging by nature--unless he suddenly turns into even a bad aproximation of Ted Williams up there, the Sox won't be getting much use out of him in the two hole.