chitownsportsfan

270 .329 .407 Who's numbers are those? Any guesses? The departed Arow's. So, who wants to bet me that BA puts up more than a .738 OPS? BA is likely an offensive upgrade over the Arow of 2005. I don't see the problem here. As for the Thome/Frank/Jurassic thing--don't some of you realize just how putrid the DH position was last year? As posted, Jurassic's splits just sucked. His homer numbers were inflated by playing in the Cell, and his OPS still sucked. No matter what happens injury wise with Frank and Thome, nobody can seriously argue that Thome does not represent less injury risk than Frank. But to simplify this down to risk is well, risky. Thome does two things Frank cannot: bats LH, and can play 1B. Both are important things to consider. I agree that trading Rowand for Thome to replace what was arguably already possesed (Frank Thomas), and then losing Frank, is a bit of a hard pill to swallow on the dawn of a world championship. However, Rowand is the definition of fungible in CF--a no hit good defense guy--MLB has plenty of those guys. Thome is a rare commodity: a LH who hits for a high OBP and slugging.

Darn! And I was going to try and use "sabermatrics" to prove why Jon's 2005 wasn't a fluke, but since you'll just discount it maybe I shouldnt... "sabermatrics" tell a few things about Jon: 1) He has an excellent F/G ratio--a must for pitching half your starts at the Cell 2) His walk rate dramatically improved in 2005. "sabermatrics" also tells that the Sox have perhaps the best team defense in MLB. So, call it "confidence" or "finding himself", the thing is that if Garland can keep his control problems in line, (as many have mentioned) he is an excellent candidate to not be a "fluke". The fact that KW and the Sox' "sabermatric" inclined FO decided he was a better long-term bet than Contreras speaks volumes.

I grew up watching Frank Thomas mash balls. Nothing will ever take those memories away. My pre-swing routine all through HS and College varied between his shoulder tap and the Robin Ventura throw the bat out low. So it pains me to see him so upset. Frankly though, I don't give a damn if he feels he was mistreated. Frank has always been a selfish guy, but it didn't matter when he was putting up little league numbers in his prime. Now that he's mostly washed up (hurts to say it), I think he needs to realize his comments won't stand. He wanted to be activated for the playoff roster? You've got to be kidding me! What, a guy with no swings since July, who is still wearing a boot...ugh

Cotts never had much success starting, whereas BMAC has a proven minor league track record and at least one brief season of mostly quality starting pitching. Cotts also doesn't have the assortment of major league pitches that BMAC has, which is another reason I think the Sox put Cotts in the bullpen. I wouldn't worry about BMAC being a permantent member of the Sox Pen. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cotts given a chance to start in 2007.

Oh snap! Goes the Milkman.

I think Cotts has the stranglehold on setup coming into ST, but anything can happen. I'd be shocked though if he sees any action other than the long guy out of the pen once the season starts. Although things could change quickly during the season, if Dustin and Pollitte fail or get injured.

My suggestion would be to change the call in you sig from Joe Buck to John Rooney. Welcome aboard!

Value over replacement player. Basically a stat adjusted for league and park (but not position) that measures a player's worth relative to a "replacement player", which is basically just a AAA+ player. A pretty cool stat I think.

Bottom 5 AL Left Fielders, by Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) Player Team EqA Projected VORP VORP Timo Perez CHA .197 0.2 -9.4 Eric Byrnes BAL .200 22.0 -9.2 Tony Womack NYA .218 5.6 -8.9 Charles Thomas OAK .107 6.3 -6.6 Mike Ryan MIN .215 3.7 -4.3 Thanks to the guys over at BP. Good job Timo!

I really think that Jay Mariotti does the best job. He isn't afraid to go against public opinion and really proves that what is popular isn't always right.

Yes, MLB baseball offseason "grades" should be based on a curve, as every move is relative in MLB. Any player the Sox sign negatively or posively affects every other team in the league. Classroom grades are an entirely different matter, one in which a "curve" is not necessary.

Ah, yes, good work, where did you find those stats? Very limited sample size, but seems like he doesn't hit as well on 3-1 as I assumed. Huh. I wonder what his career averages are?

Yea, Uribe is a freaking god on 3-1. I wish I knew the stats when he is ahead in the count--but he crushes fastballs in the zone.

Cool, I agree, it ain't broke, and putting Urbie in the two hole might just ruin his confidence so that he's useless all year. I want to move Gooch down, I really do, but who is going to hit second? Dye? That is about the only name I can think of other than Gooch who I wouldn't mind hitting second. And I probably would mind Dye hitting second, especially if Gooch was 5th...It just doesn't make sense to change it.

Best in the league offense? You have to be kidding me. The Yankees will have the best offense in the league, no questions asked. Their pitching sucks, but the offense will be amazing. Greasywheels, are you referring to the position of Gooch in the 2 hole and Uribe in the 9, or the offense in general? Because the offense in general was broke for most of 2005. Under league average in OBP, OPS, and runs. I agree though that there is really no good reason to move Gooch out of the two hole for Uribe. Uribe is free swinging by nature--unless he suddenly turns into even a bad aproximation of Ted Williams up there, the Sox won't be getting much use out of him in the two hole.

Ben Grieve's best years are way, way behind him. There are reasons these guys aren't signed to major league contracts, and Grieve is no exception. As to the thought that Grieve could play CF in case Anderson fails, what gives you that idea? He's been a corner outfielder/DH his whole career. I don't see him covering the gaps in center at age 30 when he's never done it over the course of a MLB season. This is really an "eh" invite. No reason to get mad or excited, just "eh". You look at his career line: .269 .367 .442 and say "hey, not too bad". But then you consider that he's 30, hasn't had over 300 PA since 2002 and he plays positions on the wrong side of the defensive spectrum and you go "hmm". His last "full" season was 2002: .251 .353 .432 He's better than TIMO that is for sure, than again, Borchard is better than TIMO. Point is, Grieve is an average bench player with a slight, slight, slight, chance to somehow recreate his years before the big drop in 2002. I doubt he makes the roster though. The Sox are just too deep this year. I wouldn't be surprised is he catches on with someone by the end of the year.

LOL kyle, I was kinda wondering where that Kerry Wood thing came from. Out of left field I guess.

Quizas. Pues, yo pienso no.

Another thing that pisses me off about this article is how casually Neyer throws out second order wins without any real explanation--not even a link. I realize that not everyone needs to know exactly how the formula is derived and why it works how it works; however, If you're going to use an advanced stat and use it as your main premise, why not explain it? Is he afraid that like many of us have pointed out, 2nd order wins has its flaws, flaws that fellow sabermetricians and Soxtalkers alike have pointed out?

Yea, which is why trying to use second order wins last season as a predictor of future success is counter-productive. Why doesn't Neyer just use the Zips projections as a measure of how teams will do? Those are flawed as hell too, but at least they admit it's only a rough judge, at least they have the updated rosters.

I couldn't agree more jphat. Why try to fit a square peg into a round whole? Let Uribe be the defensive god and streaky power hitter that he is--don't try and make him a OBP machine at the top of the order. I hate to mention that Cubs, but what they did to Corey Patterson by trying to bat him leadoff is a great example of a club asking a guy to do something any sane observer would say is crazy.

I really hope Uribe doesn't bat second. I'm sorry, but his OBP is terrible for a number 2 hitter. We need someone to get on base with the big boppers coming up, not someone swinging at everything and getting himself out. I love Uribe, I just would love him more in the 8 hole. IMO, the best move would be to leave Gooch at number 2 and just not ask him to give himself up so damn much. But knowing Ozzie, that has about zero change of happening.

The problem is that guys like Neyer ruin the reputations of sabermetric writers and the discipline itself. Baseball Prospectus and Rob are both too arrogant. If you want the stats without the attitude, I strongly encourage you to check out The Hardball Times and The USS Mariner blog. http://www.ussmariner.com/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/

Yea, Rob Neyer is not at the top of my list of sabermetrics writers. Give me Studes and Bill James. Studes is probably my favorite right now. He seems to like writing about the White Sox, and he loves to explain the math stuff in a way that the amateur can get. And, as Studes concluded, at some point in the season, usually June, the actual record is more important than the Pythagorean record. I agree with your point about blowouts RME to an extent. I mean, isn't "blowing people out" a sign of a dominant team? I agree though that the formula is skewed towards rewarding run producing and not run stopping.

No way the Twins win more games than the Indians in 2006. Put me on the record as saying that. This may bite me in the ass, but screw it.