chitownsportsfan

I think Cotts has the stranglehold on setup coming into ST, but anything can happen. I'd be shocked though if he sees any action other than the long guy out of the pen once the season starts. Although things could change quickly during the season, if Dustin and Pollitte fail or get injured.

My suggestion would be to change the call in you sig from Joe Buck to John Rooney. Welcome aboard!

Value over replacement player. Basically a stat adjusted for league and park (but not position) that measures a player's worth relative to a "replacement player", which is basically just a AAA+ player. A pretty cool stat I think.

Bottom 5 AL Left Fielders, by Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) Player Team EqA Projected VORP VORP Timo Perez CHA .197 0.2 -9.4 Eric Byrnes BAL .200 22.0 -9.2 Tony Womack NYA .218 5.6 -8.9 Charles Thomas OAK .107 6.3 -6.6 Mike Ryan MIN .215 3.7 -4.3 Thanks to the guys over at BP. Good job Timo!

I really think that Jay Mariotti does the best job. He isn't afraid to go against public opinion and really proves that what is popular isn't always right.

Yes, MLB baseball offseason "grades" should be based on a curve, as every move is relative in MLB. Any player the Sox sign negatively or posively affects every other team in the league. Classroom grades are an entirely different matter, one in which a "curve" is not necessary.

Ah, yes, good work, where did you find those stats? Very limited sample size, but seems like he doesn't hit as well on 3-1 as I assumed. Huh. I wonder what his career averages are?

Yea, Uribe is a freaking god on 3-1. I wish I knew the stats when he is ahead in the count--but he crushes fastballs in the zone.

Cool, I agree, it ain't broke, and putting Urbie in the two hole might just ruin his confidence so that he's useless all year. I want to move Gooch down, I really do, but who is going to hit second? Dye? That is about the only name I can think of other than Gooch who I wouldn't mind hitting second. And I probably would mind Dye hitting second, especially if Gooch was 5th...It just doesn't make sense to change it.

Best in the league offense? You have to be kidding me. The Yankees will have the best offense in the league, no questions asked. Their pitching sucks, but the offense will be amazing. Greasywheels, are you referring to the position of Gooch in the 2 hole and Uribe in the 9, or the offense in general? Because the offense in general was broke for most of 2005. Under league average in OBP, OPS, and runs. I agree though that there is really no good reason to move Gooch out of the two hole for Uribe. Uribe is free swinging by nature--unless he suddenly turns into even a bad aproximation of Ted Williams up there, the Sox won't be getting much use out of him in the two hole.

Ben Grieve's best years are way, way behind him. There are reasons these guys aren't signed to major league contracts, and Grieve is no exception. As to the thought that Grieve could play CF in case Anderson fails, what gives you that idea? He's been a corner outfielder/DH his whole career. I don't see him covering the gaps in center at age 30 when he's never done it over the course of a MLB season. This is really an "eh" invite. No reason to get mad or excited, just "eh". You look at his career line: .269 .367 .442 and say "hey, not too bad". But then you consider that he's 30, hasn't had over 300 PA since 2002 and he plays positions on the wrong side of the defensive spectrum and you go "hmm". His last "full" season was 2002: .251 .353 .432 He's better than TIMO that is for sure, than again, Borchard is better than TIMO. Point is, Grieve is an average bench player with a slight, slight, slight, chance to somehow recreate his years before the big drop in 2002. I doubt he makes the roster though. The Sox are just too deep this year. I wouldn't be surprised is he catches on with someone by the end of the year.

LOL kyle, I was kinda wondering where that Kerry Wood thing came from. Out of left field I guess.

Quizas. Pues, yo pienso no.

Another thing that pisses me off about this article is how casually Neyer throws out second order wins without any real explanation--not even a link. I realize that not everyone needs to know exactly how the formula is derived and why it works how it works; however, If you're going to use an advanced stat and use it as your main premise, why not explain it? Is he afraid that like many of us have pointed out, 2nd order wins has its flaws, flaws that fellow sabermetricians and Soxtalkers alike have pointed out?

Yea, which is why trying to use second order wins last season as a predictor of future success is counter-productive. Why doesn't Neyer just use the Zips projections as a measure of how teams will do? Those are flawed as hell too, but at least they admit it's only a rough judge, at least they have the updated rosters.

I couldn't agree more jphat. Why try to fit a square peg into a round whole? Let Uribe be the defensive god and streaky power hitter that he is--don't try and make him a OBP machine at the top of the order. I hate to mention that Cubs, but what they did to Corey Patterson by trying to bat him leadoff is a great example of a club asking a guy to do something any sane observer would say is crazy.

I really hope Uribe doesn't bat second. I'm sorry, but his OBP is terrible for a number 2 hitter. We need someone to get on base with the big boppers coming up, not someone swinging at everything and getting himself out. I love Uribe, I just would love him more in the 8 hole. IMO, the best move would be to leave Gooch at number 2 and just not ask him to give himself up so damn much. But knowing Ozzie, that has about zero change of happening.

The problem is that guys like Neyer ruin the reputations of sabermetric writers and the discipline itself. Baseball Prospectus and Rob are both too arrogant. If you want the stats without the attitude, I strongly encourage you to check out The Hardball Times and The USS Mariner blog. http://www.ussmariner.com/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/

Yea, Rob Neyer is not at the top of my list of sabermetrics writers. Give me Studes and Bill James. Studes is probably my favorite right now. He seems to like writing about the White Sox, and he loves to explain the math stuff in a way that the amateur can get. And, as Studes concluded, at some point in the season, usually June, the actual record is more important than the Pythagorean record. I agree with your point about blowouts RME to an extent. I mean, isn't "blowing people out" a sign of a dominant team? I agree though that the formula is skewed towards rewarding run producing and not run stopping.

No way the Twins win more games than the Indians in 2006. Put me on the record as saying that. This may bite me in the ass, but screw it.

hehe, clogging the bases!

This was already posted in the thread about the Phil Rogers article on ESPN.com

Well, I think the Central's top 3 teams can go toe to toe with the AL East's and AL West's teams. Detroit should be better, as should the Royals. The Central is no longer a division of the Twinkies and a bunch of also-rans. It's possibly the best division in the American League next year.

Here is the formula for 2nd order wins, also called ""Pythagenport": X = 1.5log(RPG) + .45 The model was devised by Clay Davenport. Don't ask me how he came up with that formula. I maxed out in math freshman year calc in college. I did a couple quick Google searches on 2nd order wins and found some pretty interesting stuff. In particular, the Hardball Times examined the White Sox' success in June and had the following conclusion to make: "I would answer that during a season the Pythagorean formula does a good job of predicting which teams will likely stay in the race for the duration, but as we get into June, the number of games a team will win is equally or better predicted by their actual winning percentage at that time." http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/...-the-white-sox/ This sort of sabermetrics stuff is way beyond basics like OPS and DIPS, it's more intersting, but I find it kind of hard to get into the hard-core calculations these guys are making. Still, I think it's folley on Neyer's part to use only second order wins when trying to figure out who's due to repeat and who's due to fall. Team's rosters are just too different from year to year. And his "regression to the mean" means little without looking further into the individual player's statistics and if they are repeatable. The Sox were great in 1 run games last year--and that is why the Pythagoreans don't like the Sox. No evidence points to this being a repeatable stat(winning close games) , but I know some work is being done by The Hardball Times with teams that have great bullpens and their record in close games. I think they concluded that it sure doesn't hurt, and probably helps. I wouldn't get too worked up about this stuff guys. Neyer is just doing his job. It's the middle of winter, all this stuff needs to be taken with a grain of salt. We will know more about the Sox and Indians after May than any of last years statistics could tell us--no matter how much Neyer wants to believe last years Pythagoreans.

I really think you're placing too much importance on the last spot in the pen and the last spot for everyday players. Last year those roles were filled by Timo Perez and Marte/Viz--depending on who was throwing worse at the time. Timo's VORP was negative! As for Marte and Viz, I'm not sure their contributions were much more. Sure they pitched well during the playoffs and for parts of the season, but overall they weren't very good. The team still managed to win 99 games. I am all for bringing up a kid to see if he can pitch decent out of the pen. If he can't than KW makes a minor trade to get someone in. I mean, if Ozzie is looking at the 7th inning and assuming Hermie is healthy, it has to go something like this: Cotts, Politte Hermie McCarthy Jenks ? It doesn't seem likely that the last man in the bullpen will see much meaningful action, much like Viz and Marte.