chitownsportsfan

I'd give a golf clap personally.

TA isn't really a bounceback candidate tho. His underlying batting metrics are telling. 61% ground balls. 32% pull percentage. His statcast data is brutal, like barely even a MLB player bad. His sprint speed IS BELOW AVERAGE. He's a shell of the guy that he was at 25, or even 27. For whatever reason, he stinks now.

Post covid live event bump is long gone. They will be lucky to be getting 15k through the gates a night by the end of June. They can announce paid as 20k or even 18k, but there will be a lot of no shows.

I don't want TA at any price. He needs a clean slate and to get away from the off field distractions in Chicago. The Marlins can try and rehab his value but TA is a guy that has always relied on quick twitch ability rather than skill. At 30, he's going to have a hard time keeping that quick top hand and the speed (and health) needed to maintain the high BABIP he had in his prime. There's a decent chance he's just done as a MLB player imo. I don't think he has the adjustments needed if his athletic ability has declined as much as it looked last year.

My local club, and one that has many similarities to the White Sox in overall futility, fan suppressing ownership and questionable team building. They've pulled a White Sox and traded away a "never quite lived up to his promise" former top prospect in Jarred Kelenic to Atlanta (who will immediately become the 4 WAR star @Harold's Leg Lift predicted) along with a useful (but oft injured and expensive) SP in Marco Gonzales and throw in Evan White in order to save roughly 28 million in payroll. The two pitchers they got back, look like classic middle relievers most of the time and probably won't contribute much to this year's big league squad. But surely they used that 28 million to go get another solid regular, right? Well no. The Ms then made another move trading Robbie Ray to the Giants for former Mariner favorite Mitch Haniger and another middling, oft injured pitcher, Anthony Desclafani, The move was "salary neutral" according to GM Jerry Dipoto but given the prior move, was part of a "payroll rebalancing", as according to DiPoto the Ms had too much salary tied up in SP. Well maybe that makes sense, until you consider that Haniger is on 17 million this year and has a player option for 15 million next year that will ensure his carcass sticks around the Puget Sound another season. Haniger is coming off a negative fWAR year, and is projected for 1 fWAR and 123 games played. That's optimistic by ZIPS: Mitch hasn't played more than 100 games in a season since 2021 and has an injury history that would make Eloy and Moncada look like iron men. The Mariners did spend a little money this offseason, giving 24 million guaranteed over two years to a part time DH in Mitch Garber who will be entering his age 33 season. If you're not spending 12 million AAV on an aged DH to push your expected wins to 87 instead of 86, are you even a real franchise? The Mariners don't want to operate like a good team and raise payroll in the contending window, much like the Sox they seem to believe good teams can be built sustainably on a payroll in the middle of the league. The Ms and Sox enter the year with the 17th and 18th highest payrolls in MLB, respectively. The Mariners' window is ostensibly open this season and the next, but much like the 2022 White Sox, there's a chance that negative regression on the "core" coupled with a refusal to do anything other than retool around middling FAs on the wrong side of 30 will bit them sooner rather than later and slam that window shut. The Ms got roughly 14 fWAR from three position players last year: Cal Raleigh, Eugenio Suarez, and Julio Rodriguez. I'd probably take the under on 14 fWAR for those three this year. If they just have solid years and it goes down to 10 fWAR, the pitching stays about the same and so does everybody else, well, there's your 83 wins instead of 88 or whatever. And there's your window shut. And finally, perhaps realizing they were a little thin overall, they made a win now pay later move (that probably won't even be a win now move in true White Sox fashion) bringing in Santos for a couple C+ type prospects and a draft pick. While it's unlikely the Sox found a star in the deal, it's the type of move the Sox have been on the wrong end of too many times, chasing an extra win through bullpen additions and if you trade off back end top 20 org wide prospects enough times occasionally if will bite you long term. Fangraphs has them at 86 projected wins. The most mariner thing ever would be to win 86 games, miss the playoffs by a game, and then enter a retool headed into 2025. Also, there is this article from Lookout Landing on Haniger that read a lot like the stuff we wrote about Konerko and others. Hope is a good thing, but when it's the only thing?

Open the diamond club you cowards! @Quin Wanted to post some Mariners s%*#.

Not sure if I love this or hate this. If they can get robert to stop sliding head first so much great. Otherwise boy, bit late to be teaching the pros about sliding, amirite?

He should be given every chance to stick at SS, I just hope they are smart enough to make his development the priority, not squeezing out a win or two this year playing him out of position.

While I certainly don't lean right I've seen similar bloat in Seattle. Non profits are like crack to fairly wealthy big cities. They promise all the benefits of good governance with none of the oversight and budget constraints. Of course if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is, and like any bureaucracy if they actually solved the problems, they'd be downsized. City's waste money on s%*# constantly. There's an argument wasting it on sports arenas is a better bet than some new agency.

A lot of moving parts, we'll see if they have Moncada and Colson and DeJong together on the MLB roster at any point this year. I can see Moncada out via trade and Colson to 3B.

The logic was "someone has to play, they might as well be cheap". That's a simplification but it applies to most of their moves.

Dovetails with my post on the fWAR over unders. Let's hope he's motivated and healthy and puts together a bounce back year so he can get off this s%*# team and bring us back something.

I liked him but never really loved him if that makes sense. That said, he's the type of player and person that you hope comes around more often than not on your favorite teams.

That's interesting. Time to read more about the Chicago stockyards. Maybe we have a curse we can break or something.

Familiarity breeds contempt.

I'm sure a lot of these games will have a backstop cam if nothing else available somewhere, maybe even some live streaming from the Fegan types. Anyways, even in a contending year ST is boring by the 2nd week. Let the real games start.

Right, that's another option. Just letting him walk and paying 5 million for the privilege is the dumbest and worst case scenario. Get some value out of him if he's playing well.

If Getz isn't really the same as the old boss that's the sort of dumb, stupid, short sighted pound foolish penny smart decision you do not make. Pickup the damn option and then find a trade partner, or you know, negotiate an extension. You can't let guys walk for nothing coming off 3-4 WAR years. Every player is an injury risk, Moncada would be entering his statistical prime years and if the Sox aren't interested, a contending team certainly would be.

I woke up feeling dangerous (maybe danger Russ even) so I'm going to go OVER on Paul Dejong and his .7 fWAR. He's playing for his MLB future and he'll "bounce back" into a barely average regular at SS. He'll play 145 games, be solid with the glove, and slash 240/290/380. There's really nothing in his profile that suggests he'll bounce back with that increased slugging, but I'm going to be danger russ and assume he'll have some extra motivation to avoid another one year deal and even possible get traded off this s%*# bag team.

3-4 WAR would get it done, then the Sox would easily be able to trade him if that 2025 Sox team isn't anywhere near contention, and they probably won't be.

yea FG pretty muted on our D overall given how it's supposedly a big strength now. that maldonado defensive number is hilarious. over half a win under defensively at catcher as a guy that is a vet leader.

Yea I was thinking under on Eloy as well. He's not gonna get 600 PA, and if he's the DH for all of them, he won't hit enough to get that value.

can you stay on topic for one post? and yes, if he balls out you 100% use it as leverage.

I've gotta go with Cease on the UNDER. There isn't a chance in hell he makes 174IP on the SS, and maybe he doesn't even make 150 in all of MLB who knows. Going with Yoan OVER. Contract year and all that. @ptatcis a trusted source on injury imo, and if he think Yoan will gut out a few more games, who am I to say otherwise. And if he does have a good year the Sox can pick up his option and still have a good asset. So here's hoping!

Here's the FG projected stats: You take the over, you take the under, it's a simple bet.